Microsoft Continues to Stuggle 5-16-26

Summary

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Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Episode: Microsoft Continues to Struggle 5-16-26
Host: Scott Becker
Date: May 16, 2026

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Overview

In this focused episode, host Scott Becker analyzes the persistent struggles of Microsoft in the stock market despite its renowned leadership and pivotal role in the tech industry. Becker sets the discussion within the broader context of technology stocks and the current dynamics of the "Magnificent Seven." While reinforcing his positive long-term stance on Microsoft, he candidly reviews Microsoft's recent underperformance, especially in comparison to industry rivals like Nvidia, Apple, and Google.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview and Recent Performance

• Scott Becker reflects on notable market movements in the past week, mentioning strong performances by Nvidia juxtaposed against weaker results from some private equity funds.
• Transitioning the focus, Becker delves specifically into Microsoft’s situation:
  • Year-to-Date Decline: Microsoft is down approximately 16% to 18% as of the middle of the week (01:25).
  • Market Capitalization: The company's market cap stands at $3.03 trillion, now trailing Nvidia by $2.3 to $2.4 trillion (01:32).
  • Becker observes the significant reshuffling in the order of the “Magnificent Seven” companies, with Nvidia soaring far ahead and Microsoft losing ground compared to Apple and Google (01:49).

2. AI vs. Software: Changing Tech Leadership

• Becker emphasizes the shift in tech industry leadership from traditional software giants to those excelling in AI, as exemplified by Nvidia’s rapid ascent (01:40).
• He notes this as a key factor in Microsoft’s comparative underperformance.

3. Enduring Faith in Microsoft’s Leadership

• Despite acknowledging the ongoing struggles, Becker reiterates his belief in Microsoft’s resilience and leadership:
  • Satya Nadella’s “brilliant, brilliant” leadership is highlighted, with Becker emphasizing, “I’m never betting against Microsoft” (01:52).
• However, he keeps the assessment balanced by admitting, “But the reality is Microsoft keeps struggling” (02:04).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“Microsoft continues to struggle. So here's the deal with Microsoft. It's down as of midweek about 16 to 18% year-to-date. It's got a market cap of 3.03 trillion. That is now more than 2.3 or 4 trillion less than Nvidia.”
— Scott Becker [01:25]

“For a long time it was Microsoft, Apple, Google, then Nvidia flew up ahead of everything. Apple and Google are still in there. Microsoft has come down.”
— Scott Becker [01:49]

“I wouldn't bet against Microsoft. I'm never betting against Microsoft. I'm an investor in Microsoft. So don't take this as negative advice on Microsoft, but Microsoft at the end of the day is really struggling.”
— Scott Becker [01:52]

“Brilliant leadership. Satya Nadella is a brilliant, brilliant leader. So we never bet against Microsoft, but the reality is Microsoft keeps struggling.”
— Scott Becker [02:04]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:57 – Episode introduction & recap of recent topics
• 01:25 – Microsoft’s year-to-date decline and market cap comparison
• 01:40 – Shift from software to AI; Nvidia’s dominance
• 01:49 – “Magnificent Seven” reshuffling
• 01:52 – Affirmation of Microsoft’s leadership & future potential
• 02:04 – “The reality is Microsoft keeps struggling”

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Tone and Language

Scott Becker adopts his signature candid, analytical tone—offering honest, market-savvy insights while maintaining optimism for Microsoft’s leadership and future prospects. The episode blends industry context with a personal investor’s view, balancing critique and long-term belief.

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Conclusion

Becker’s analysis gives listeners a concise yet substantive snapshot of Microsoft’s current standing within the ever-evolving tech landscape. He underscores the shifting power dynamics from software leaders to AI powerhouses, while reaffirming his long-term confidence in Microsoft despite recent setbacks.

Useful Takeaway:
Microsoft’s struggles are real and quantifiable, but with proven leadership and market resilience, it remains a strong player to watch—or, as Scott Becker puts it, never count out.

Transcript

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[C]

This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. It's been a fascinating week in the markets. We've had a chance to record this week about Nvidia, which is doing great, the five big PE funds, Palo and more which are doing poorly. But we've also talked about how people should read their boss on their first jobs. We're also talking about clarifying life and somewhat of a reality, somewhat of a joking episode. And finally today we'll talk about Microsoft continues to struggle. So so here's the deal with Microsoft. It's down as of midweek about 16 to 18% year to date. It's got a market cap of 3.03 trillion. That is now more than 2.3 or 4 trillion less than Nvidia. And you got to remember that in terms of what's happened with AI versus software, I wouldn't bet against Microsoft. I'm never betting against Microsoft. I'm an investor in Microsoft. So don't take this as negative advice on Microsoft, but Microsoft at the end of the day is really struggling. It's down that much and it's in a spot where God knows it will ever get back to sort of the top of the Magnificent Seven. For a long time it was Microsoft, Apple, Google, then Nvidia flew up ahead of everything. Apple and Google are still in there. Microsoft has come down. So what we really see is Microsoft, regardless of great leadership, continues to struggle. Now we'll see if that continues and where it goes from here. Brilliant leadership. Satya Nadella is a brilliant, brilliant leader. So we never bet against Microsoft, but the reality is Microsoft keeps struggling. Thank you for listening to the Becker business and the Becker private equity podcast. Thank you very, very much.

[D]

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