Palantir Technologies – Aren’t I a Genius 4-24-25 - Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Summary

Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Episode Title: Palantir Technologies – Aren’t I a Genius
Release Date: April 24, 2025

Introduction to the Episode

In this thought-provoking episode of the Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast, host Scott Becker delves into the complexities of stock picking versus investing in index funds, using Palantir Technologies as a central case study. Titled "Palantir Technologies – Aren’t I a Genius," the episode challenges the common narrative of individual stock success stories and underscores the importance of a diversified investment approach.

Challenging the "Genius Investor" Narrative

Scott Becker opens the discussion by addressing a prevalent trend among individual investors who boast about their successful stock picks. He paints a relatable picture of conversations where investors claim, "I invest in Peel and Tear technologies. It's up 35%. It's up 370% in the last year, last 52 weeks," attributing these gains to their own genius (00:45).

Key Points:

Bragging Rights vs. Financial Reality: Becker criticizes the tendency of investors to highlight only their successful investments, neglecting the broader picture of their overall portfolio performance.
Personal Anecdote: To illustrate his point, Becker cites his own investment journey. He mentions owning Steril Labs, which was initially performing well but later suffered significant losses. "I thought I was going to retire off it. And of course then deep seek happened... my Steril Labs, which I also own directly, is now down, I think the last I looked about 55% to date" (03:30).

Notable Quote:

"Anybody that tells you about their genius and investing in individual things, my take on that is generally they're a moron and should be investing only in index funds like I should be investing largely in index funds." (04:50)

The Illusion of Stock Picking Success

Becker expands on the flaws of focusing solely on individual stock successes:

Selective Success Stories: He emphasizes that highlighting a few successful investments while ignoring the numerous unsuccessful ones presents a skewed and unrealistic picture of investment prowess.
Personal Investment Examples: Beyond Steril Labs, Becker shares other investments that didn't pan out, including a cannabis ETF and a Bitcoin ETF, both of which were "absolutely crushed" (03:50). These examples serve to demonstrate that even seasoned investors like himself face failures, challenging the notion of consistent genius in stock picking.

Advocating for Index Funds

Transitioning from the pitfalls of individual stock investments, Becker advocates for a more reliable and less risky investment strategy:

Consistency Over Bragging: He argues that investing in index funds provides steady and diversified returns, reducing the risk associated with individual stock volatility.
Long-Term Growth: By emphasizing index funds, Becker suggests that investors can achieve long-term financial stability without the emotional rollercoaster tied to individual stock performances.

Advice to Listeners:

"Don't think you're a genius when things are going well, let's see. Let's see. Everything, not just the one thing you're bragging about." (04:55)

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Wrapping up the episode, Scott Becker reiterates the importance of humility and realistic expectations in investing. He encourages listeners to adopt a diversified investment approach rather than chasing individual stock successes that may not be sustainable in the long run.

Closing Remark:

"Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast." (05:00)

Key Takeaways:

Skepticism of "Genius" Investors: Success in a few stocks does not equate to overall investment genius; it's essential to consider the entire portfolio.
Diversification is Crucial: Relying on index funds can mitigate risks associated with individual stock investments.
Transparency in Investing: Acknowledging both successes and failures provides a more accurate picture of investment strategies and outcomes.
Long-Term Strategy Over Short-Term Gains: Building wealth through consistent, diversified investments outweighs the unpredictable nature of picking individual winners.

This episode serves as a compelling reminder to investors to adopt a balanced and informed approach to their investment strategies, emphasizing the value of diversification and the dangers of overconfidence in individual stock performance.

Transcript

Scott Becker (0:00)

This is Scott Becker with the Becker Private Equity and Business podcast. Today's discussion is Palantir Technologies. Aren't I a genius? So. So here's how the typical discussion goes with people that talk about their stock picking. I invest in Peel and Tear technologies. It's up 35%. It's up 370% in the last year, last 52 weeks. But I didn't own it for all of that. But needless to say, it's up a lot since I bought it. So aren't a genius. And let's go through this very quickly. This reminds me of everybody who sits at the dinner table and says they bought Apple early, they bought Nvidia early, they did this early, they did that early, and they're just geniuses. And of course they're still not that financially had and still working for a living. Now when somebody tells you that they bought Palentier at the right price and it's up 35% year to date and it's up 370% last year, also ask them what they bought that went poorly because I could guarantee you anybody that's bragging about their genius and picking particular stocks also got crushed in some stocks. I'll give you one of mine, one of those we talk about regularly as Steril labs. I thought I was so smart when I ended up owning part of a sterile labs. You know, it was going up, it was going up was the greatest thing I ever bought. I thought I was going to retire off it. And of course then deep seek happened, then the next thing happened, then the next thing happened. And so, so, so my, my Astero labs, which I also own directly, is now down, I think the last I looked about 55 to, to date. So as much as I might tell people at the dinner table how smart I am because I own Palen, that was up 35% year to date. I audit in the same breath. I own a sterile labs which is down 60% year to date. So maybe I'm not that bright. Also invested in a cannabis ETF a couple years ago that got absolutely crushed. Invest in a Bitcoin etf, they got crushed too. And then of course I sold it and it went back up. But, but anybody that tells you about their genius and investing in individual things, my take on that is generally they're a moron and should be investing only in index funds like I should be investing largely in index funds. That's the take for today. You know, don't think you're a genius when things are going well, let's see. Let's see. Everything, not just the one thing you're bragging about. Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Thank you very, very.