Tesla vs. Rivian 10-2-25 - Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Summary3 min read

Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Episode: Tesla vs. Rivian 10-2-25
Date: October 2, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Becker digs into the latest performance numbers for Tesla and Rivian as the electric vehicle (EV) market reacts to the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit. He compares the starkly different quarterly outcomes for the two companies, explores the implications for each, and briefly comments on the position of Lucid Motors in the market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Importance of Q3 and the EV Tax Credit

Q3 is highlighted as a pivotal period, largely due to the expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit.
This expiration created a sense of urgency among buyers, impacting Q3 sales for EV companies.
"The third quarter is very important because it marks the expiration of the electronic vehicle $7,500 tax credit." – Scott Becker [00:18]

Tesla’s Record-Setting Quarter

Tesla delivered almost 500,000 cars, with the precise figure cited as 497,000+.
This is described as a record-setting quarter for Tesla.
"Tesla ended up marking up a record setting quarter, delivering almost 500,000 cars, 497,000 something to be exact. That's a fantastic quarter." – Scott Becker [00:28]
Becker notes that high sales numbers are partially inflated due to expiring tax incentives, but still reflect strong consumer demand:
- "...even though it's a fantastic quarter, it also reflects the fact that people still want to buy Teslas, which is a really good sign for Tesla." [00:36]
- He acknowledges the numbers are "goosed" by the tax credit's impending expiration, but argues it's better to have high sales now than none at all.

Rivian’s Disappointing Performance

Despite being a "hot car" with significant buzz, Rivian suffered a "horrendous third quarter."
Low Q3 sales are particularly concerning, given the boost most expected from the tax credit expiration.
"But Rivian had a horrendous third quarter notwithstanding the tax credits expiring. So this is, at the end of the day, a really bad sign because if you can't sell a lot of cars when the tax credits are expiring, then it says bad things about where the company is going going forward." – Scott Becker [01:13]
Rivian’s stock was down about 7% on the news. [01:29]

Lucid Motors: An Afterthought

Lucid receives brief mention, with Scott noting its continued irrelevance due to low sales:
- "Lucid Motors are still selling less than 20,000 cars a year. Until they sell more, they're not really relevant." – Scott Becker [01:38]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"Everybody knows those numbers are goosed by the fact that the tax, that the tax credit is going away. But far better to have great sales knowing it's going away than not to have great sales." – Scott Becker [00:41]
"If you can't sell a lot of cars when the tax credits are expiring, then it says bad things about where the company is going going forward." – Scott Becker [01:20]
On Lucid: "Until they sell more, they're not really relevant. That's what's happening with Lucid Motors." – Scott Becker [01:42]

Timestamps for Key Segments

[00:18] – The significance of Q3 and tax credit expiration
[00:28] – Tesla’s record quarter & explanation of numbers
[01:13] – Rivian’s disappointing Q3 performance and implications
[01:29] – Rivian’s stock drops on poor earnings
[01:38] – Lucid Motors' low sales and position in the market

Tone & Style

Becker’s commentary is brisk, candid, and somewhat analytical. He praises Tesla’s performance while voicing concerns about Rivian’s future, and quickly sidelines Lucid as still not relevant in the sector.

This summary captures all critical content for listeners seeking to understand recent dynamics in the EV market between Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid, with Becker’s straightforward analysis and perspective.

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Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business Podcast, the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Thank you for listening. Today's discussion is Tesla versus Rivian. So here's the situation with these two companies. Fascinating stats is they finish the third quarter. The third quarter is very important because it marks the expiration of the electronic vehicle $7,500 tax credit. And here's what happened. Tesla ended up marking up a record setting quarter, delivering almost 500,000 cars, 497,000 something to be exact. That's a fantastic quarter. Now of course, even though it's a fantastic quarter, it also reflects the fact that people still want to buy Teslas, which is a really good sign for Tesla. It's also somewhat misleading because everybody knows those numbers are goosed by the fact that the tax, that the tax credit is going away. But far better to have great sales knowing it's going away than not to have great sales. Now the second company, Rivian, Rivian's been a real star this year. People are selling and buying lots of Rivians. It's been a hot car, they're cool looking. But Rivian had a horrendous third quarter notwithstanding the tax credits expiring. So this is, at the end of the day, a really bad sign because if you can't sell a lot of cars when the tax credits are expiring, then it says bad things about where the company is going going forward. Rivian is down about 7% today on that news. In any event, just fascinating to watch what's going on with these companies. I won't even mention Lucid because Lucid Motors are still selling less than 20,000 cars a year. Until they sell more, they're not really relevant. That's what's happening with Lucid Motors. Thank you for listening to the Becker Business podcast, the Becker Private equity podcast. Thank you very, very much.