The Tax Bill, Jobs Report, Trump vs. Powell, & More 7-3-25 - Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Summary4 min read

Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast: Episode Summary Title: The Tax Bill, Jobs Report, Trump vs. Powell, & More
Host: Scott Becker
Release Date: July 3, 2025

Scott Becker delves into six pivotal business and economic stories in this episode of the Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast. The discussion encompasses legislative developments, labor market statistics, tensions between political and financial authorities, and movements in specific stock sectors. Below is a detailed overview of the key topics addressed.

1. The "Big Beautiful Bill" Passes the House

Timestamp: [00:00]

Scott Becker opens the episode by discussing the progress of the highly touted tax legislation, dubbed by President Trump as the "big beautiful bill." According to Becker, the bill is nearing potential passage in the House of Representatives, indicating a significant legislative victory for the administration.

"It looks like the big tax bill, what Trump calls the big beautiful bill, he is getting close to possible passage in the House." [00:30]

Becker draws a parallel between President Trump's influence over the current Republican majority and Newt Gingrich's control of the House in the past, highlighting the unprecedented level of leadership exerted by the president within his party.

"The last time I saw a president or a leader have so much control over one party or a House was back in the day when Newt Gingrich really controlled the House of Representatives." [00:50]

Despite the bill's potential to increase the deficit—a stance traditionally opposed by Republicans—the coalition seems poised to support its passage, signaling a possible shift in fiscal policy priorities.

2. Robust Jobs Report Signals Economic Strength

Timestamp: [01:20]

Becker shifts focus to the latest jobs report, which showcased a stronger-than-expected economic performance. The report revealed the creation of 150,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.

"The jobs report for last month came in much stronger than expected with the economy creating 150,000 jobs, 147% jobs, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%." [01:25]

The unexpected strength of the labor market poses challenges for Chairman Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve, as the robust job growth may deter the Fed from reducing the federal funds rate. This scenario places the Fed in a difficult position, balancing economic growth with inflationary pressures.

"This is going to cause trouble because Chairman Powell is going to be very reluctant to reduce the fed funds rate with the jobs market so strong." [01:45]

3. Tensions Between President Trump and Chairman Powell

Timestamp: [02:10]

The strong jobs report exacerbates the existing friction between President Trump and Chairman Powell. Becker observes that the President is increasingly targeting Powell, who typically maintains a low profile in political debates.

"President Trump really seems to be targeting Chairman Powell. Chairman Powell seems to largely try and stay out of this discussion, but really fast to see this ramp up." [02:15]

With the June jobs report's impressive figures, expectations rise that the Federal Reserve will slow the rate of rate reductions, intensifying the political and economic crossroads between the administration and the central bank.

"It's going to get worse now as the jobs report for June was terrific and that's going to slow down the reduction of rates by the Fed." [02:35]

4. Cannabis Stocks Facing Significant Declines

Timestamp: [03:00]

Becker provides an analysis of the cannabis stock market, noting a downturn despite widespread legalization across various states. Major ETFs and key cannabis companies have experienced substantial losses year-to-date.

"The cannabis stock market... The big ETF I filed down 36% year to date. Tilray, one of the big names in Cannabis, is down 64% year to date." [03:05]

He reflects on his personal investment decisions, expressing satisfaction over selling the cannabis ETF to realize tax losses, although he laments selling his Bitcoin ETF.

"It's one of the ETFs I sold a few years ago. Took the tax losses. I'm happy I did." [03:15]

The overall sentiment indicates challenging times for cannabis investors, with significant volatility and declining valuations persisting despite market maturation.

5. Oracle's Stellar Performance in the Market

Timestamp: [04:00]

In contrast to the struggling cannabis sector, Oracle Corporation is highlighted for its impressive market performance. Becker attributes Oracle's success to its advancements in healthcare and cloud services.

"Oracle seems to be hitting its stride, doing great in a variety areas, particularly in health care. In the cloud. It's up 40% year to date." [04:05]

This robust growth underscores Oracle's strategic positioning and effective execution in key technology sectors, making it a standout performer in the current stock market landscape.

6. UnitedHealthcare and Managed Care Stocks Under Pressure

Timestamp: [05:00]

Finally, Becker discusses the downturn in the healthcare sector, specifically managed care stocks like UnitedHealthcare, which have plummeted by 40% year-to-date.

"UnitedHealthcare, with a host of the other managed care stocks, is down 40% year to date." [05:05]

Although the Trump administration has introduced some measures providing relief, these efforts have yet to significantly stabilize the sector, leaving it grappling with persistent challenges.

"They're getting some relief from the Trump administration, but still really struggling." [05:15]

Conclusion

Becker concludes by reiterating the key themes of the episode:

The potential passage of the expansive tax bill amidst internal party dynamics.
A surprisingly strong jobs report complicating Federal Reserve policies.
Escalating tensions between President Trump and Chairman Powell.
Divergent performances in the stock market, with cannabis and healthcare sectors underperforming, contrasted by Oracle's notable gains.

Listeners are encouraged to engage and share their thoughts via text or call.

"The jobs report a shock to the system. Many more jobs created in June than expected. Oracle knocking it out of the park. Cannabis still getting crushed." [06:00]

For further insights and discussions on private equity and business trends, reach out to Scott Becker at 773-766-5322.

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Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
Scott Becker
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business Podcast and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. There are so many news stories that we're following today. We'll just walk through six of them very quickly. We'll talk about sort of the tax bill, the jobs report, President Trump versus Chairman Powell, and a lot more. But I'll just walk through a few things very quickly. So the first thing is it looks like the big tax bill, what Trump calls the big beautiful bill, he is getting close to possible passage in the House. I hate to say that you don't know what will ever happen, but it looks like they're getting closer and closer to winding up the votes they need. We'll see how that goes. The last time I saw a president or a leader have so much control over one party or a House was back in the day when Newt Gingrich really controlled the House of Representatives. It's really fascinating what is going on with President Trump. You've got a bill that adds to the deficit, something that Republicans have been devoutly against forever, and yet they're likely to pass this bill. So that's that. Second, the jobs report, the jobs report for last month came in much stronger than expected with the economy creating 150,000 jobs, 147% jobs, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%. This is going to cause trouble because Chairman Powell is going to be very reluctant to reduce the fed funds rate with the jobs market so strong. And that's going to cause them to continue to be in the crossroads of President Trump. Third, again, a fault to that President Trump and Chairman Powell seem to be back in the crosshairs together, you know, targeting each other. Well, President Trump really seems to be targeting Chairman Powell. Chairman Powell seems to largely try and stay out of this discussion, but really fast to see this ramp up. And it's going to get worse now as the jobs report for June was terrific and that's going to slow down the reduction of rates by the Fed. The next story I'm watching cannabis stocks. Cannabis stocks now standing. The broad national sort of legalization in many states of Cannabis. The big ETF I filed down 36% year to date. It's one of the ETFs I sold a few years ago. Took the tax losses. I'm happy I did. I'm sorry. I sold the bitcoin ETF that I was holding as well. Tilray, one of the big names in Cannabis, is down 64% year to date. You know, just amazing what's happened with the cannabis stock market. A couple stocks that are really moving a lot this year. Oracle seems to be hitting its stride, doing great in a variety areas, particularly in health care. In the cloud. It's up 40% year to date. Simply amazing what's happened with Oracle. And finally, UnitedHealthcare. UnitedHealthcare, with a host of the other managed care stocks, is down 40% year to date. They're getting some relief from the Trump administration, but still really struggling, down 40% year to date. Again, those are a handful of the stories that we're following currently. The big, big Bill will keep on updating on that. That is fascinating. The jobs report a shock to the system. Many more jobs created in June than expected. Oracle knocking it out of the park. Cannabis still getting crushed. Call or text Scott Becker anytime. 773-766-5322 with your comments and thoughts. Thank you very, very much.