Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Episode: Winners & Losers: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
Release Date: May 30, 2025
Host: Scott Becker

Introduction

In this episode of the Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast, host Scott Becker delves into the dynamic world of stock performance, categorizing companies into winners and losers based on recent market activities. The discussion provides insights into the factors influencing the success and struggles of various businesses in the current economic landscape.

Winners: Companies Excelling in the Market

1. Palantir Technologies

Scott highlights Palantir Technologies as a standout performer in the stock market. Despite the broader market volatility, Palantir continues to demonstrate robust growth and innovation.

“Palantir Technologies just still knocking out of the park.” [04:15]

2. Costco

Another major winner discussed is Costco, which has recently reported strong earnings. Scott praises Costco’s operational efficiency and consistent performance, positioning it as a reliable investment in uncertain times.

“Costco continues to be operated like a well-oiled machine, just a great company.” [05:45]

Losers: Companies Facing Challenges

1. Astera Labs

Scott turns his attention to Astera Labs, identifying it as a significant underperformer. Despite initial optimism, the company has faced continuous setbacks, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions related to China and semiconductor chips.

“Astera Labs is down like 6 or 7% today.” [07:30]
“Its discussions of China and chips ramp up have been disastrous for the company.” [07:50]

Scott admits his own misjudgment regarding Astera Labs, emphasizing the importance of conviction in investment choices.

“I own some of without any great conviction, which is itself a moronic way to invest in stocks.” [08:10]

2. The Gap

Moving to the "ugly" category, Scott discusses The Gap, criticizing its management for attributing poor performance solely to external factors like tariffs, rather than addressing internal issues.

“The Gap is down 20% today, and Best Buy was down 12 or 15% the other day.” [09:20]
“They’ve really struggled the last several years but are pointing now to tariffs as the reason for their struggles.” [09:35]

Scott expresses his fascination with how some companies deflect responsibility, undermining investor confidence.

Market Trends and Observations

Scott provides an overarching view of the current market trends, noting a tendency among certain corporations to blame external factors like tariffs for their underperformance, regardless of their management strategies.

“When anybody does performance poorly, they blame it on tariffs, regardless of their management prowess or not.” [03:50]

He underscores the importance of evaluating companies based on their fundamental performance rather than external scapegoats.

Investment Strategy Insights

Throughout the discussion, Scott shares his investment philosophy, which favors index funds and Treasuries as the core of a robust portfolio. This strategy aims to mitigate risks associated with individual stock volatility.

“Generally, we invest in index funds and Treasuries and those are the core of the portfolio.” [06:30]

His candid reflection on holding Astera Labs without strong conviction serves as a cautionary tale for investors about the pitfalls of speculative investments.

Conclusion

Scott wraps up the episode by recapping the key points, reiterating the successes of Palantir Technologies and Costco, while cautioning listeners about the struggles faced by Astera Labs, The Gap, and Best Buy. He emphasizes the importance of strategic investment choices and maintaining a balanced portfolio to navigate the complexities of the stock market.

“Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Thank you very much for joining us today.” [12:00]

Key Takeaways

• Winners: Palantir Technologies and Costco exemplify strong market performance through innovation and operational excellence.
• Losers: Astera Labs, The Gap, and Best Buy face significant challenges, often exacerbated by poor management and external pressures.
• Investment Strategy: Emphasizing index funds and Treasuries can provide stability in volatile markets.
• Market Behavior: A trend of attributing company struggles to external factors like tariffs, highlighting the need for critical evaluation of such claims.

This episode provides valuable insights for investors looking to understand the factors driving stock performance and the importance of strategic investment decisions in the ever-evolving business landscape.