Behind the Bastards: It Could Happen Here Weekly 212

Podcast: Behind the Bastards (Cool Zone Media / iHeartPodcasts)
Episode: It Could Happen Here Weekly 212
Date: December 13, 2025

Episode Overview

This week’s episode stitches together several powerful, topical discussions from the “It Could Happen Here” series, focusing on:

• The ideology and intent behind the Abraham Accords and Arab-Israeli normalization (with special guests Ben Schuman Stoller & Matan Khamener)
• The rise and real-world dangers of prediction markets in news and politics
• The philosophical battle between antinatalism and pronatalism
• Coverage of contemporary U.S. politics, media consolidation, and the far right’s creeping influence
• The candidacy and history of a white nationalist running for congressional office
• A lively, darkly humorous roundtable on the week’s biggest news, including tech, immigration, and global authoritarian trends

1. Abraham Accords and Arab–Israeli Normalization: Myth, Messaging, and Mechanism

Segment Start: [02:41]

Discussion Leaders

• Host: Dana El Kurd
• Guests: Ben Schuman Stoller (COLO Media), Matan Khamener (Queen Mary University)

Key Points

• Background: The impetus for the conversation is a Trump-era PowerPoint, recently publicized, envisioning Gaza as an economic hub rebuilt with no political rights for its citizens—an image of “authoritarian conflict management.”
• What Is “Normalization”?: Matan defines normalization as “a long process”—not just the open establishment of diplomatic ties, but a century-long pattern of elite cooperation and erasure of Palestinian rights. It dates back to agreements between Zionist leader Chaim Weizmann and King Faisal (~100 years ago).
• The Abraham Accords:
  • Two main documents: Declaration of Principles (“mythical, religious, kinship language”) and actual peace treaties (mostly with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan).
  • Purpose: To reframe economic, diplomatic, and security ties as “interfaith” or “kinship” bonds—Abraham as “the father of both Jews and Arabs.”
  • Underlying Goal: “Obfuscation”—to hide the centrality of the Palestinian conflict by talking about “cousinhood” and “coexistence.”
• Ideological Layering:
  • Ben: The Accords’ presentation is “a massive PR exercise.”
  • Matan: “There’s a lot of violence in this peace framing... ‘You’re going to love this peace, or else.’” [17:47]
  • Dana: “I’ve been describing the Abraham Accords as authoritarian conflict management because it maintains structural violence... It’s not solving the underlying motivations.” [19:03]
• The Abraham (“Bad Cousins”) Myth:
  • The story of Abraham, Sarah, Hagar, Isaac, and Ishmael is mobilized to manufacture a narrative of kinship that masks disputes over “land and sovereignty.”
  • Matan deconstructs the myth: “The person who has the most intimate contact with God... is Hagar. She’s an Egyptian; she’s a migrant; her name means ‘migration.’ She’s cast out—there’s so much darkness underneath the myth that is missed.” [19:55-23:29]
  • Alternative readings of the myth are possible, but the state-sanctioned reading “facilitates authoritarian conflict management.”
• Geopolitics and Myth in Media:
  • European and U.S. media love the “ancient cousins fighting” trope—enabling Western “neutral” mediation while hiding their own deep complicity (see Crusades, colonialism, modern interventions).
  • Ben: “The relevance of the Abraham story as a Bible story may not impact Europeans... but in the Middle East it matters. Every Israeli and Arab we talked to said the Accords are called that ‘because we’re cousins.’” [23:46]
• Authoritarian Modernism in the Gulf:
  • The Gulf signatories aren’t even full ethnonational states—their own citizens are often minorities, and legitimacy is sought via “modernism”—economic zónification (Gaza as SEZ), soft power, and “morally amorphous categories” like secularism and modernization (Yassin al-Haj Saleh’s theory).
  • Dana: “This is their vision of the world... They don’t care about democracy. They want you to be prosperous and in your place. Everybody stay separate.” [36:04]
• What Comes Next?:
  • Matan: Watch the coming “IMEC corridor”—Biden/Trump strategy to integrate India, Gulf, Israel, Europe—entailing a “nightmarish vision” for Gaza as a hyperexploited economic zone and further dispossession of Palestinians. [38:20]
  • Ben: “My hope is that civil society will win out eventually... what October 7 showed [is] without dealing with the Palestinian cause, there will be no possible safe, entrepreneurial dreamland.” [41:40]

Memorable Quotes

• “There’s a sort of ‘switcheroo game’... the Palestinians are hidden. The crux... will always be the Palestinians... but as long as you talk about Abraham, you don’t have to talk about it.” – Matan [15:26]
• “As if this is about religion—it’s about land and sovereignty and that’s clear. But these aren’t called the ‘land and sovereignty accords.’" —Dana [19:03]
• “It’s not about white supremacy... it’s about people being better because they’re in the right place. That’s something coming up very strong in the global far right.” – Matan [31:10]
• “The Abraham Accords is authoritarian conflict management because it maintains structural violence.” —Dana [19:03]

2. The Political Gambling Apocalypse: How Prediction Markets Are Eating Democracy

Segment Start: [51:20]

Host: Garrison Davis

Key Points

• Media Partnerships: CNN and CNBC are now integrating “prediction markets” (Kalshi, Polymarket) into on-air news coverage—broadcasting betting odds on elections and world events as “real data.”
• What Are Prediction Markets?: Gambling sites where users bet yes/no on political or event outcomes. Statistically, this betting is not equivalent to polling or true mathematical probability—it's a composite of gamblers’ instincts/bias.
• Key Dangers:
  • Enshrines gambling as objective forecasting—viewers confuse betting odds with polling/statistics.
  • Encourages insider trading on political outcomes, sports-style corruption, and enables those with real influence (or information) to enrich themselves.
  • Direct Trump family involvement: Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both leading companies (Kalshi & Polymarket); investigations into illicit activity have been quashed under the Trump administration. [58:16]
• Data Privacy and Disinformation: Use of euphemisms (“projected” in Polymarket tweets) and news partnerships drives the gambling narrative into mainstream discourse, blending factual reporting and speculative betting, and incentivizing newsworthy outcomes for profit.
• Critiques:
  • Mainstreaming prediction markets “financialize everything.”
  • “These odds aren’t real probabilities—they’re just how much money’s on each side, not a representation of expected outcome.” [76:07]
  • “This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting... creates addictive consumer habits.” [84:38]
• Moral and Social Costs: The possibility that those controlling events (e.g., politicians, military leaders) will bet on the outcomes of their own decisions.
• Regulatory Vacuum: The federal government is the only authority capable of intervening—and the current administration is deeply compromised.

Memorable Quotes

• “Prediction markets’ odds are not mathematical probabilities... it’s just a big casino for world events.” —Garrison [76:07]
• “Their long-term vision: ‘to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.’” —Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansur [84:09]

3. The Antinatalist vs. Pronatalist Tug-of-War

Segment Start: [91:24]

Hosts: Andrew Sage (Andrewism), Mia Wong

Key Points

• Antinatalism:
  • Claims it is “always or usually morally impermissible to procreate”
  • Argued by David Benatar: “It’s better never to have been.”
  • Motivations split between: 1) consent/avoidance of suffering, 2) broader misanthropy (“humans are a blight”)
  • “Repugnant conclusion”: If the creation of all human life is a moral mistake, that itself may be a reason to doubt the theory.
• Pronatalism:
  • Ranges from soft (supporting families, state incentives) to hard (coercive policies, religious mandates, eugenics-tinged tech optimism).
  • “Strong” pronatalism leads to policies restricting bodily autonomy, or valorizing large families for reactionary/nationalist reasons.
• Balanced Skepticism:
  • “Both camps repulse me. I’m wary of anyone claiming that you must have children or must not have children.” —Andrew
  • True autonomy is the priority: “Make choices freely; resist the pressure from either camp.” [114:44]

Notable Moment

• Mia describes antinatalist arguments as “just the exact script in your head when you’re really depressed.” [98:11]

4. White Nationalist Congressional Candidate Exposed

Segment Start: [117:25]

Segment By: Molly Conger

Key Points

• Candidate: Tyler Dykes, running for Congress in SC-1, part of a crowded, right-wing field.
• Nazi Allegations: Dykes repeatedly insists, unprompted by journalists, that he’s “not a Nazi”—but:
  • Pleaded guilty to assaulting police officers in the January 6 riot
  • Caught on video giving a “Seig Heil” at the Capitol and at a known Nazi rally
  • Received a military discharge specifically for “participating in prohibited extremist activity”
  • Past links: Paramilitary Nazi training, “Unite the Right” rallies, white supremacist “active clubs”
• Media Narrative: Dykes claims a “gag order” prevents him from posting exonerating evidence, but actual court records show he himself objected only to his (damning) military records being released.
• Significance: Case study in how current America First, grievance-fueled right is happy to recycle candidates with plainly white supremacist backgrounds.

5. Weekly News Roundtable (Executive Disorder): U.S. Media, Far-Right Trends, and Global Authoritarianism

Segment Start: [143:38]
Panel: Robert Evans, Garrison Davis, Mia Wong, James Stout, Sophie Lichterman, Jacob Goldstein

Key Discussions

• Media Consolidation: Netflix vs. Paramount/Saudi-backed attempts to acquire Warner Brothers—major implications for CNN, entertainment, and the U.S. media landscape. [144:02]
• Right-Wing Political and Judicial Maneuvering:
  • Major city council, mayoral, and legislative flips toward Democrats—“everyone hates them” theory continues to find support. [157:01]
  • Supreme Court enables gerrymandered Texas maps for 2026.
  • January 6 pipe bomber finally nabbed (with a surprising “My Little Pony” angle—he was a brony and not overtly political).
• Immigration and Surveillance:
  • Expanded DHS/CVP social media surveillance for all tourists applying for visa waivers—an unprecedented data dragnet, with obvious political and economic downsides. [178:00]
• Foreign Policy/National Security Reports:
  • Newly released Trump administration document: advocates “restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity,” reasserts the Monroe Doctrine, and frames “mass migration” as the central threat to the U.S.
  • Panel underscores this as openly nativist, supremacist, and a potential road map for global authoritarian collaboration.

Standout Quotes and Moments

• “'Tolerance framing'—the flip side is: you better like this peace, or else. And we’re calling it peace and it’s Abrahamic—so if you don’t like it, what does that say about you?” — Dana El Kurd [19:03]
• “This is the demon child of crypto and sports betting. [Prediction markets] want to ‘financialize everything’ and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.” —Garrison Davis [84:38]
• On antinatalism: “This is like the exact script you get in your head when you’re really depressed... Consider getting your depression managed rather than doing philosophy about it.” —Mia Wong [98:11]
• “My hope is that civil society will win out eventually... What October 7 showed: without dealing with the central cause... there will be no possible safe, entrepreneurial dreamland.” —Ben Schuman Stoller [41:40]
• “Authoritarian conflict management... maintains structural violence. It’s not attempting to solve the underlying motivations—which is the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which is the land, which is the war crimes.” —Dana El Kurd [19:03]
• “If you have an extra room, put a trans person in it. If you have a couch, put a trans girl on your couch... this is going to be Mia’s message going forward: please do this.” —Jacob Goldstein [196:38]
• On the Trump admin’s national security strategy: “It’s just white nationalist Twitter brain in a policy document.” —Garrison Davis [184:29]

Notable Timestamps (MM:SS)

• [02:41] — Abraham Accords interview segment begins
• [19:03] — Authoritarian conflict management and the violence in “peace” discourse
• [23:46] — Explaining the myth to a European audience; its lived importance
• [36:04] — “Modernism” as Gulf monarchy legitimacy and new authoritarian ideology
• [51:20] — Political gambling apocalypse (Kalshi, Polymarket) segment starts
• [76:07] — Gambling odds vs. actual probabilities in media reporting
• [91:24] — Antinatalism vs. pronatalism philosophical discussion
• [117:25] — Exposé on Nazi-linked congressional candidate Tyler Dykes
• [143:38] — Executive Disorder news roundtable begins
• [178:00] — DHS plans for biometric & social media dragnet for all tourists
• [182:16] — Review of Trump’s national security/foreign policy strategy document

Summary:

This weekly compilation episode blends deep-dive interviews, philosophical skirmishes, media criticism, and news roundups to reveal patterns in how authoritarian logic is marketed (via the Abraham Accords and media “normalization”), how the “financialization of everything” (prediction markets) is corrupting news and public discourse, and how the far right’s tactics penetrates even the most conventional arenas (party politics, immigration oversight, narrative control). Up-close, history is not just about old myths—it’s about who gets to define the present moment, and whose version of reality becomes policy.

“If the Palestinians don’t have sovereignty... things are not going to calm down in the region. It’s just going to be more and more violence, more and more of this hell for everybody... The question for the region is the Palestinian question.” —Matan Khamener [38:20]

For further reading and episode sources, see the official show notes and follow-up links provided by Cool Zone Media.