D (3:58)

Now. Okay. Another annoying talking point you've probably heard is that OpenAI is somehow too big to fail, when in fact it's too small to pull apart into enough parts to eat. OpenAI has promised $1.4 trillion in compute deals, convincing Oracle and others to build massive data centers in its honor. Yet the reality is that this company isn't even going to hit its $13 billion in projected revenue this year and will burn billions of dollars in inference alone, and doesn't really have a path to profitability. Too big to fail means that something may kill our economy or markets if it dies. And as loud and annoying as clammy Sam Altman might be, OpenAI's death wouldn't kill either of those. Let's break it down. OpenAI dying would be symbolically lethal to the large language model era and create an immediate and permanent chill in AI investments. Don't get me wrong, its death would also likely be an existential threat to Crusoe, the company building its data center in Abilene, Texas for Oracle. I spoke to someone on the ground there and they say if the money runs out, everyone just stops and goes home. They'll be fine. I don't know the extent of Crusoe's revenues, however, but I do know that Oracle is on the hook for a billion dollars a year for Abilene for 15 godd. And Oracle has also taken on massive amounts of debt to build Abilene and other data centers in Shackelford, Texas and I think somewhere in Wisconsin, New Mexico one now and started this with an $18 billion bond sale and an in the works $38 billion debt package to build data centers for OpenAI. While Oracle does run the risk of default and credit default swaps, which is people betting again. Well, betting that they might default on their obligations, that's going up. The risk is there, but they're still a real company that makes real things. Microsoft owns OpenAI, IP and Research, which would mean that Microsoft would pretty much absorb those 800 million weekly active users directly into Copilot, and that's if it even chose to retain them and just shut down ChatGPT, directed it to a very flimsy version of Copilot, and didn't let people do half the shit they do with it. Bailing out OpenAI would not do anything, in part because OpenAI burns billions of dollars and doesn't really do much in the large economy itself. Its revenues, which I estimate to be at most $4.5 billion through the end of September. By the way, if you're listening to this and you think that my revenue numbers for OpenAI and my inference numbers were delayed somehow, it's a cruel accounting. Stop fucking with me. I know what I'm doing. Anyway, those revenues are inconsequential, and the $8.67 billion it spent on inference in that period is while a large chunk of Azure revenue from Microsoft only really accounting for 3.88% or so of the $223 billion Microsoft has made in that period. Losing OpenAI would hurt but hardly threaten the health of anyone in Redmond. The same goes for Anthropic or any other generative AI company. These companies aren't really spending that much, nor are they fueling much of any actual real economic activity. There's only around $60 billion of actual AI revenue in 2025. In a tech industry where Amazon made $180 billion and Google 102 billion in their last quarters, the disappearance of LLMs writ large would have a minuscule effect on actual real dollars entering the economy. Other than investments in data centers, which is where I think there's if any, some kind of bailout. As I mentioned recently, there's been about $50 billion or more even every quarter for the last three quarters going into building data centers. And I think that many of these projects end up defaulting. There's a chance that a chance that these are somehow bailed out if and only if they provide an actual existential risk to a major asset firm, a Blackstone or an Aries or what have you. I don't know if Ares is in them. I'm just naming them at this point. Nevertheless, there is one that I the one company I could see if any bailout happens. And I'm really hesitant to say I think there's any chance. Oracle. Oracle, I think is the one chance. Oracle is currently massively leveraged and going into debt to the point it's eating into its free cash flow. And it's a close ally of the Trump administration. I could see them getting a lifeline to escape these ridiculous loans. And while you may say there's some sort of grand plan where the administration will agree to pay these companies to keep them alive, I don't see it happening. Is doing so won't support the economy. The markets really do anything other than prolong the inevitable. It's not going to happen. And I don't know. I'm gonna. I want to phrase this in a nice way because I don't want it to seem like an attack every time you say something like this. You're doing marketing for the AI industry. Doomerism is marketing. At this point with AI, I'm so scared of what they'll. They'll create. They are going to get bail out. Open AI is too big to fail. All these are extrapolations of your fear. I get it. They're also marketing. You are helping them. You are helping them market their services by making them seem systemically relevant when they are not. By making them seem like they're innovative when they're not.

D (8:57)

Honestly, I need you to just live in reality and look at what's actually happening, which is sweet fuck all. In many cases. Every one of these wanky studies you hear come out so on. It's like 10% of jobs can already be automated by AI. CNBC should be fucking ashamed of themselves for running a story about it. It's a PhD. Congrats to the better offline Reddit user who saw this. It's a PhD paper and also it's referring to random skills rather than jobs. And skills and jobs are two different fucking things. I'm so goddamn tired of this era. Good lo. But nevertheless, the next two weeks are going to be real interesting. I'm working on a three or four part about my worries around Nvidia and I'm going to tell you all about Nvidia and how not similar they are to Enron. Nvidia is nothing like Enron or Lucent or WorldCom or Windstar or all these other companies I'm going to go into as well. And tomorrow I've got a fun interview with Nathan Grayson of Aftermath your Love. I might next week take a knee and just run the better offline in studio thing I just did with with Lisa from cnn. Or I might do the three or four part. It really comes down to how I'm feeling. It's been a rough few weeks. Health wise. I'm doing fine. I was just being sick and I've just been quite stressed. I must again say thank you for all the lovely emails and messages you've been sending. You're all so lovely. I love you all. Couldn't be lucky with the listeners I've got. Tell your friends about the show, tell them about the newsletter, tell them about me, tell them about my strange proclivities. But also keep listening. I really do appreciate all of you. Enjoy tomorrow's episode and whatever I put out next week and there will be a monologue regardless. Unless I do the three or four par, in which case that's going to be your monologue for the week. And yes, by the way, I realize me just talking is always a monologue. I get it. You're so smart. You are though. Really. Thank you for listening.

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Janice.

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Torres here and I'm Austin Hankwitz. We host the podcast Mind the Business Small Business Success Stories produced by Ruby Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.

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We're back for season four to talk to some incredible small business owners.

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The big thing about working at tech is that it's ever evolving, ever changing. Everyone's a rookie, that's how fast the industry is changing. So what I'm really excited about is to be part of that change. So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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