Monologue: ChatGPT's Growth Is Collapsing In Europe

Summary

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Better Offline – Monologue: ChatGPT's Growth Is Collapsing In Europe

Podcast: Better Offline
Host: Ed Zitron (Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts)
Release Date: October 17, 2025

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Episode Overview

This solo episode of Better Offline, hosted by tech industry veteran Ed Zitron, explores the striking slowdown and near-collapse of ChatGPT’s subscription growth throughout the major European markets. Zitron unpacks exclusive data, contextualizes it within broader industry patterns, and analyzes what this means for OpenAI’s future outside the U.S. It’s equal parts deep-dive, industry critique, and darkly comic commentary on tech hype cycles and Silicon Valley’s business models.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context: Why AI, Why Now? (00:36–02:30)

• Ed Zitron acknowledges recent episodes have focused heavily on AI topics, citing continued industry upheaval and the demand for accessible analysis:

  • “Every day Sam Altman tells somebody he’s gonna give them a billion dollars. It’s all so silly and I do feel like it’s not being covered very thoroughly. So I’m doing my best to do so.” (00:57)

• He teases forthcoming episodes and reaffirms a commitment to diverse tech coverage, but concedes that AI will likely remain central due to ongoing public interest and industry drama.

2. The Data: ChatGPT Europe Subscription Decline (02:31–04:38)

• Zitron details a recent Fortune article citing Deutsche Bank data that shows a collapse in ChatGPT’s paid subscription growth across major European markets:

  • “OpenAI subscription growth in Europe has stalled and is, and I quote, flatlining in the major European markets over the past four months.” (02:54)
  • Cites transaction data from the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain—together about 15% of ChatGPT’s global user base.

• He summarizes the volatility and ultimate decline in subscription growth:

  • Growth “dropping from 10% in June 2023 to below 0% in August 2023,” with modest rebounds tied to AI product launches but nothing resembling sustained growth. (03:24)

3. Comparison to Other Tech Revolutions (04:39–05:36)

• Ed draws comparisons to the growth trajectories of previous tech revolutions (e.g., Facebook, Uber, cloud computing), underscoring how ChatGPT’s European spiral is unique:
  • “I can find no example of a successful software revolution that started with high growth and tumbled into the abyss in Europe. It didn’t happen with Facebook… It didn’t happen with the smartphone or cloud computing… This is a steady decline.” (04:48)

4. Regulations & Product Parity: It’s Not GDPR’s Fault (05:37–06:00)

• Zitron clarifies that the GDPR (Europe’s data privacy regulations) is not what’s holding ChatGPT back:
  • “This is nothing to do with Europe’s General Data Protection Regulations or the GDPR… I’ve independently confirmed with European ChatGPT users that the product is basically identical over there. Europe just happens to be rejecting ChatGPT. They don’t want to pay for it.” (05:41)
• He points out that spikes in growth linked to major feature launches are becoming “less pronounced each time.”

5. Ad Revenue Pipe Dreams & Market Realities (06:01–07:15)

• Discussion of OpenAI’s lack of advertising expertise and the limitations of pivoting to ad-supported models, especially under regulation:

  • “The GDPR, by the way, will make it difficult for OpenAI to launch advertising, which I will add, will not be the saving grace for this company because Google and Meta’s massive advertising revenues come from decades of data and expertise… OpenAI can’t just copy that.” (06:24)
  • Humorous aside on a competitor: “Perplexity, that AI search engine… made $20,000 selling ads in 2024. That’s bollocks. It’s terrible. You make more selling dogs.” (06:47)

• Zitron warns against assuming new business lines will magically solve OpenAI’s problems, noting there’s “no real evidence” they can find one.

6. Broader Significance: The Puncturing of the AI Bubble (07:16–08:00)

• Zitron frames the collapse of European growth as a sign of wider trouble for the AI sector’s growth narrative:
  • “It really is hard to read this as anything other than air escaping the bubble. It’s being pierced, I swear to God. And perhaps it’s the era of smiles beginning. A specter is haunting Silicon Valley, the face of the smiling man. And I hope you’ll join me every week to find out how this shit bursts or, I don’t know, whatever crazy crap Sam Altman promises next.” (07:42)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the stagnation of ChatGPT subscriptions in Europe:
  • “OpenAI subscription growth in Europe has stalled and is, and I quote, flatlining in the major European markets over the past four months.” (02:54)
• On AI product launches being less and less effective at generating growth:
  • “The boosts that OpenAI gets from throwing out new products… they’re becoming less pronounced each time.” (05:56)
• On OpenAI’s struggles to pivot to ad-supported revenue:
  • “Perplexity, that AI search engine… made $20,000 selling ads in 2024. That’s bollocks. It’s terrible. You make more selling dogs.” (06:47)
• On European user attitudes:
  • “Europe just happens to be rejecting ChatGPT. They don’t want to pay for it.” (05:45)
• On tech industry hype:
  • “It really is hard to read this as anything other than air escaping the bubble. It’s being pierced, I swear to God.” (07:42)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:36–02:30: Host’s introduction, AI focus rationale, upcoming episode teasers
• 02:31–04:38: Presentation of Fortune/Deutsche Bank data, summary of subscription growth/decrease statistics
• 04:39–05:36: Comparisons to previous tech product rollouts in Europe
• 05:37–06:00: Dismissing GDPR as the culprit
• 06:01–07:15: Commentary on ad-based revenue and OpenAI’s lack of alternative business models
• 07:16–08:00: Big-picture framing — AI “bubble” narrative and what comes next

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Tone & Style

Zitron combines a wry, self-aware humor with deeply skeptical, sometimes exasperated tech commentary. The episode is lively, sharply critical, and loaded with analogies and asides (e.g. auctioning dogs, CES plans, references to Kill Bill music). Zitron’s style remains accessible, conversational, and irreverent—even as he delivers a sobering analysis of a tech industry darling’s woes.

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In summary:
This monologue is a critical, engaging breakdown of why ChatGPT’s paid subscriptions are failing to take hold in Europe, what that reveals about consumer adoption of generative AI, and why Silicon Valley’s usual growth playbook may be failing—delivered in Ed Zitron’s characteristically sharp, darkly funny voice.

Transcript

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Call Zone Media hello and welcome to this week's Better Offline Monologue. I'm your host, Ed Zitron. Better off online and sorry that there hasn't been a monologue for a few weeks. These massive episodes I've been putting together took up my time in a way that made them a little impractical. And as far as the show goes, I know it's been very AI focused. I can't even say AI right sometimes. But anyway, this is likely gonna continue for a while because as you can tell from the news, crazy shit keeps happening every day. Every day Sam Altman tells somebody he's gonna give them a billion dollars. It's all so silly and I do feel like it's not being covered very thoroughly. So I'm doing my best to do so. Nevertheless, I promise I'm going to find a way to bring in more non AI stuff. I'm not really sure how it's going to make it in there. I'll do my best and I'm already working on CES 2026, which I think is going to be probably the best tech podcast thing Thing ever. Got some incredible guests. Chloe Radcliffe, of course, Edward Longueuisso Jr, David Roth. And yeah, those guests I can't quite talk about yet, but they're going to make you really happy and it's going to be about more than just AI. That being said, next week's episode is likely to be AI focused as I've had a lot of people request to do an episode that's a simplified guide to the AI bubble, something that they can share with people that aren't sticking their head in or financial septic tank every day. And look, I think you're going to love it. You can please listen to it. Anyway, I need the downloads, but in all seriousness, I think it's going to be something and I've been working on it for a few days now. That's quite short and sharp, but will speak to people who are not technical or financial at all. I think it'll be great and if not shows free. You'll enjoy it. But I also do just want to say I really appreciate how many of you listen every week. I really appreciate your patience with the AI stuff. You seem to all really enjoy it. But I do love from love to hear from you whenever I can. So reach out. Please don't be too mean though. I do have a heart. But yes, this week's monologue is somewhat of a big story. So Two days ago Fortune published a story saying that according to data from Deutsche bank, which is a very, very large bank, that OpenAI subscription growth in Europe has stalled and is, and I quote, flatlining in the major European markets over the past four months. To quote Fortune, the data was drawn from Transact, processed by third party financial institutions. Really nailed that word in the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain representing 15% of ChatGPT users. And if you're wondering, the top software markets in the world are us, China, Germany, uk, France and Italy. And then there's Canada and some others. To be clear, this specifically refers to people paying for ChatGPT subscriptions. The 20 buck a month one most likely. And in a graph I'll link to in the show notes, you really should look at it OpenAI subscription growth in Europe has been pretty rocky from the beginning, dropping from 10% in in June 2023 to below 0% in August 2023, meaning growth had declined only to recover slightly. Well, pretty well I guess. The 20% in December 2023 then drop again to below 0% in February 2024. Otherwise, OpenAI barely scraped 10% growth outside of some spikes in September 2024 around the launch of their reasoning models which got them to about 15%, the launch of their useless agent operator in January 2025 which got them somehow to around 18%, and then the launch of O4 image generation in March 2025, which by the way was the studio Ghibli Wank. And that got them back to only 10%, though I realized that was a lot of numbers. And like I said, the chart is in the episode notes, I swear. But in June 2025, OpenAI faced negative growth of subscribers in Europe, barely recovering to 2 to 3% in July 2025 and then back to 0% in August 2025, which looks like there may be a mild recovery coming to around 3% in September. Now while I'm not quite declaring victory or blasting not like us, I am having trouble finding a way around how bad this is. I can find no example of a successful software revolution that started with high growth and tumbled into the abyss in Europe. It didn't happen with Facebook, and it certainly didn't happen in Uber's case. Even though European governments actively tried to reject it, and some of them still are. It didn't happen with the smartphone or cloud computing or really any other software revolution or device. They would start from kind of nowhere and then grow, and then there'd be wobbles, but they'd keep growing, still steadily. This is a steady decline. And to be clear, this is nothing to do with Europe's General Data Protection Regulations or the gdpr. Robert Evans once told me to spell everything out. I've independently confirmed with European ChatGPT users that the product is basically identical over there. Europe just happens to be rejecting ChatGPT. They don't want to pay for it. And as you'll see when you look at the graph, the boosts that OpenAI gets from throwing out new products, they're becoming less pronounced each time. Other than operator, that one kind of surprised me. But even then, 18% growth and I think it's month over month. If it's year over year, it wouldn't be year over year, it's month over month now. The GDPR, by the way, will make it difficult for OpenAI to launch advertising, which I will add, will not be the saving grace for this company because Google and Meta's massive advertising revenues come from decades of data and expertise in forcing them down customers throats, as well as having a very compelling product and thousands of salespeople. And also in Google's case, thousands of miles of underground cable and under the C cable I believe as well. People are easily scared of suggesting that OpenAI's data on users is rich because they feed so much into it. This point makes the assumption that this data is useful and that OpenAI can actually do anything with it, despite having absolutely no expertise in selling ads. As a reminder perplexity, that AI search engine you'd think would be the perfect place for ads. They made 20 grand. $20,000 selling ads in 2024. That's bollocks. It's terrible. You make more selling dogs. Anyone watch the day Today might be auctioning dogs. Anyway, my rambling aside, it's very easy to get scared of this company and just think, oh they have a lot of money and users, even though they lose billions, they'll just put ads in and that will fix everything. I must caution you to immediately be a doomer there. I see no real evidence that they're going to find another business line, mostly evidenced by the fact they've never been able to find one. And while this isn't declarative proof that this company is circling the drain, I I don't know how else to look at it as anything other than their growth story in Europe is dying and they're building a goddamn data center in England. I think with N scale a company that's never built an AI data center in their life. To be fair, that's also the case with Crusoe. In fact, all of OpenAI's partners pretty much never built a data center of any kind other than crypto ones, which are completely different. Also, no one's built a gigawatt data center. That's going to be a future episode. Forgive me. I want to educate you on data centers one day, but every time I start thinking about them, my brain starts playing the that music from Kill Bill. When she looks at anyone she's mad at, someone's going to email me and say Perry Mason. Christ. The great thing about these monologues is I could just talk about whatever I want to. They say I should do this, which is what I'm going to do. But in reality, back to the thing we're talking about. It really is hard to read this as anything other than air escaping the bubble. It's being pierced, I swear to God. And perhaps it's the era of smiles beginning. A specter is haunting Silicon Valley, the face of the smiling man. And I hope you'll join me every week to find out how this shit bursts or, I don't know, whatever crazy crap Sam Altman promises next.

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