Monologue: Is Oracle Screwed?

Summary

Better Offline: Monologue – Is Oracle Screwed?

Host: Ed Zitron
Date: February 6, 2026
Podcast: Better Offline (Cool Zone Media & iHeartPodcasts)

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Episode Overview

In this solo monologue, Ed Zitron delivers a scathing, deeply skeptical take on Oracle’s recent financial maneuvers related to its multi-billion dollar partnerships with OpenAI. Zitron dissects Oracle’s ballooning debt, exposes the shaky logic behind its gigantic plans to build massive data centers, and questions the sustainability of the entire enterprise. The tone is frank, irreverent, and alarmed — with a clear warning to listeners about the precarious state of both Oracle and the AI industry’s current financial delusions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bloodbath in Tech Stocks and Generative AI Hype [00:21]

• Zitron kicks off by noting the recent plunge in Oracle’s stock, framing it as vindication for his longtime skepticism about AI’s economic viability:

  “Blood is running through the stock market, as everybody realizes at once… generative AI costs too much, loses everybody money, and doesn’t have the growth potential to make any of this shit worth it.”

• He stresses that the “costs are out of control,” and the narrative is finally cracking under financial scrutiny.

2. Oracle’s Overextended Ambitions with OpenAI [01:23]

• In September 2025, Oracle announced a $300 billion, five-year compute deal with OpenAI — a figure Zitron calls completely unworkable.

  • Only a fraction of the promised infrastructure exists: “At this time did not and does not exist. As far as I can tell, only 200 megawatts… appears to be complete… they need a lot more than that. That’s meant to be a 1.2 gigawatt center. Not great.”

• Other planned data centers (Stargate projects in Texas, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan) are unfinished or halted due to financing problems.

3. The Staggering Costs and Oracle’s Funding Shortfall [02:48]

• Citing analyst Jerome Darling (TD Cohen), Zitron breaks down the math:

  • Building out the required 4.5 gigawatts of data center capacity would cost at least $189 billion.
  • “Oracle was and is short by quite some measure.”

• So far, Oracle has raised:

  • $56 billion in bonds and debt (with $38B for Scackelford and Wisconsin projects)
  • An additional $25 billion in bonds
  • Plans for a $20 billion ATM (at-the-market) share sale
  • Total raised: $101 billion — “which is less than $189 billion. May seem obvious, but… the fucking markets don’t appear to be able to count.”

Memorable Quote [03:37]:

“Mathematicians in the audience have likely run the numbers at this point and worked out that this is only $101 billion, which is less than $189 billion. May seem obvious, but I don't know, the fucking markets don't appear to be able to count.” — Ed Zitron [03:37]

4. Reliance on OpenAI’s Ability to Pay [04:10]

• The financial logic completely hinges on OpenAI being able to pay Oracle huge sums, despite OpenAI’s own losses:

  • The $300 billion compute deal implies $80+ billion per year owed by OpenAI.
  • Zitron notes Microsoft Azure’s cloud revenue in 2025 was $75 billion — “How does OpenAI pay that? Especially when Oracle hasn’t built the capacity.”

• Points out OpenAI only “allegedly made $13 billion last year and lost $9 billion on top of that. How the hell do they pay this?”

5. Nvidia/OpenAI Investment Drama & PR Spin [05:10]

• Nvidia backed away from a rumored $100 billion investment in OpenAI, later clarifying it would only put $20 billion in — “Jensen [Huang] went on CNBC… just saying, ‘Oh yes, OpenAI is wonderful. No drama, no drama at all.’”

• Oracle attempted reassurance on social media:

  “The Nvidia OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain highly confident in OpenAI’s ability to raise funds and meet its commitments.”

• Zitron and Alex Wilhelm (tech reporter) both call this “bank run language,” comparing it to walking into a room and declaring, “I didn’t fucking kill anyone” — it only raises suspicion.

Memorable Quote [06:18]:

“That’s bank run language, you don’t want it. …It’s like walking into a room saying I didn’t fucking kill anyone. People are probably going to ask why you need to bring that up at this time.” — Ed Zitron, quoting Alex Wilhelm [06:18]

6. Sacrifices and Desperation: Layoffs and Asset Sales [07:00]

• Analyst letters suggest Oracle will need to lay off up to 25,000 employees and possibly sell Cerner (its healthcare IT branch, bought for $28B) just to stay afloat—yet even this would only “add $8–10 billion in cash flow… nowhere near $189 billion.”

7. TikTok Acquisition and Political Spin [07:45]

• Oracle’s recent TikTok acquisition is ridiculed:
  • TikTok “loses billions and billions of dollars,” and even the sought-after “political influence” narrative is undercut by operational blunders and interference.
  • “The algorithm on TikTok is already shitting its pants because Oracle can’t stop messing with it… And guess how TikTok makes money? Ads. And how does TikTok show ads? Well, they keep you on the app with the algorithm. How do you think this is going to work?”

8. Conclusion: Oracle is in Real Trouble [08:14]

• Oracle has negative $13 billion in cash flow, spiraling debts, and no plausible path to financing its ambitions.
  • “There really is a future in which Oracle collapses. Larry Ellison’s stock is entirely tied up in Oracle… This is a company in decline and… really looking quite shaky.”
  • “Even if they weren’t in decline, the amount of money they’re trying to spend here is genuinely impossible for them to afford.”

Final Reflection [08:20]:

“…They are going to have to stress the debt markets, the levels they’ve never seen. And even then they cannot afford the payments unless OpenAI can pay them more than anyone has ever paid for Cloud, ever. …I really only have one question. Is that good?” — Ed Zitron [08:20]

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Most Notable Quotes

• “Blood is running through the stock market, as everybody realizes at once… generative AI costs too much, loses everybody money, and doesn’t have the growth potential to make any of this shit worth it.” — Ed Zitron [00:27]
• “That’s meant to be a 1.2 gigawatt center. Not great.” — Ed Zitron [01:51]
• “Mathematicians in the audience have likely run the numbers at this point and worked out that this is only $101 billion, which is less than $189 billion. May seem obvious, but I don't know, the fucking markets don't appear to be able to count.” — Ed Zitron [03:37]
• “How does OpenAI pay that? Especially when Oracle hasn't built the capacity. But they don't have the money. They only allegedly made $13 billion last year and lost $9 billion on top of that.” — Ed Zitron [04:32]
• “That’s bank run language, you don’t want it.” — Ed Zitron (citing Alex Wilhelm) [06:18]
• “It’s like walking into a room saying I didn’t fucking kill anyone.” — Ed Zitron [06:25]
• “The algorithm on TikTok is already shitting its pants because Oracle can’t stop messing with it… How do you think this is going to work?” — Ed Zitron [07:54]
• “[Oracle is] a company in decline and they are really looking quite shaky. …the amount of money they’re trying to spend here is genuinely impossible for them to afford.” — Ed Zitron [08:14]
• “I really only have one question. Is that good?” — Ed Zitron [08:28]

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Key Timestamps

• 00:21 – Host introduction and summary of AI market collapse
• 01:23 – Oracle’s OpenAI data center announcement and project status
• 02:48 – Discussion of funding, real costs of data centers, and debt
• 03:37 – Funding shortfall calculations and market criticism
• 04:10 – How OpenAI’s (in)ability to pay undermines Oracle’s plans
• 05:10 – Nvidia investment drama; unreliable PR language
• 06:18 – The “bank run language” and raising red flags
• 07:00 – Analyst predictions: layoffs, asset sales
• 07:45 – The TikTok acquisition’s financial and strategic flaws
• 08:14–08:28 – Oracle’s existential risk and final reflection

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Summary

Ed Zitron’s monologue on “Is Oracle Screwed?” pulls no punches in exposing the wild optimism, questionable math, and self-destructive financing that has left Oracle (and perhaps much of Silicon Valley’s AI ambitions) tottering on the brink. He thoroughly debunks the idea that simply promising the world and raising mountains of debt can substitute for actual profitability or operational capacity—and suggests Oracle is dangerously close to the edge.

Whether you’re a tech industry watcher or a casual listener, this episode is a bracing dose of financial realism delivered with wit and urgency.

Transcript

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[Ed Zitron]

Call Zone Media Greetings and salutations, traveler. I'm your host, Ed Zitron, and this is your better offline monologue for the. That's a whole sign Blood is running through the stock market, as everybody realizes at once. Shit. I've been saying since 2024, the generative AI costs too much, loses everybody money, and doesn't have the growth potential to make any of this shit worth it. Yet this has been a week for the more sophisticated haters, with Oracle stock plummeting on the news that it had to raise another 45 to $55 billion to fund data centers for OpenAI, which timed poorly with the story that Nvidia was no longer doing its $100 billion investment in OpenAI. Something you all know was the case because it was on this podcast months ago and has been multiple times since. To catch you up, last September Oracle announced a $300 billion five year long deal to provide compute to OpenAI powered by 4.5 gigawatts of compute capacity that at the time and at this time did not and does not exist. As far as I can tell, only 200 megawatts of Stargate Abilene, a project that's been a work in progress since 2024, appears to be complete and to my knowledge as well, there's only like 200 megawatts of power out there. They need a lot more than that. That's meant to be a 1.2 gigawatt center. Not great. Now several other data center projects are allegedly in the works too. Stargate Shackelford, Texas and Wisconsin, Stargate New Mexico and theoretically at least Stargate Michigan through Blue Owl, who invested in basically every Stargate project and pull out of Michigan due to financing conditions souring. Oracle had previously raised $56 billion in bonds and debt, with 38 billion of that specifically earmarked for Shackelford and Wisconsin. That debt is payable over four years, with two one year extensions and payments for interest only until construction is complete. One little problem, I'm afraid. According to jerome darling at TD Cohen, it's upwards of $42 million a megawatt to build a data center. Completing these data centers is going to cost at least $189 billion for the 4.5 gigawatts. And Oracle was and is short by quite some measure. So it sold $25 billion more in bonds and plans to sell another $20 billion of stock in an at the money share sale, literally printing new shares and dumping them onto the market in intervals set by the bankers behind the deal. Mathematicians in the audience have likely run the numbers at this point and worked out that this is only $101 billion, which is less than $189 billion. May seem obvious, but I don't know, the fucking markets don't appear to be able to count. Now the other problem Oracle has is that the only way it can pay these loans off is if OpenAI is able to pay them. And I need to be clear how difficult that will be. That $300 billion five year long compute deal guarantees that at least one year will be over $80 billion in payments. For some context, the entire revenue of Microsoft's Azure Cloud in 2025 was $75 billion. How does OpenAI pay that? Especially when Oracle hasn't built the capacity. But they don't have the money. They only allegedly made $13 billion last year and lost $9 billion on top of that. How the hell do they pay this? I don't know, but everyone seems to think they will, or at least they did. Now Nvidia of course went out to say that they would absolutely be investing a lot of money in OpenAI's supposed upcoming round. This 100 billion do different to this $100 billion deal they were talking about. OpenAI is currently raising $100 billion allegedly, but Nvidia is only putting $20 billion in. And Jensen went on CNBC with Jim Cramer and had the most bizarre conversation. I'll link to it in the episode Notes. He was just saying, oh yes, OpenAI is wonderful. Cutting over Jim Cramer, as Jim Cramer just sat there going, well, you know, we love your deal. It's the best deal ever. Sounding like Sylvester the Cat. And Jensen is just cutting over him, saying, what? OpenAI is amazing. No drama, no drama at all. And let me tell you something, the reason he's saying no drama is because OpenAI also leaked a thing saying that Sam Altman and OpenAI were unhappy with Nvidia chips. It's all so good. This is the kind of stuff that happens when things are going well and well, Oracle saw this, and Oracle saw this back and forth and they thought, we need to help, we need to help the markets. So they put out a tweet and I'm just going to read it to you. The Nvidia OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain highly confident in OpenAI's ability to raise funds and meet its commitments. Sadly, Oracle's the Nvidia OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship. T shirt appears to have people asking them a lot of questions already answered by the Sherm. Jokes aside, that's the kind of thing the Alex Wilhelm tech reporter said. It's bank run language, you don't want it. That will always have the opposite effect. Saying I said this on an interview recently. It's like walking into a room saying I didn't fucking kill anyone. People are probably going to ask why you need to bring that up at this time. The other part of that statement that got me it was we're highly confident in OpenAI's ability to raise funds. They're not paying this out of cash flow. So Oracle is just depending their entire existence on OpenAI's ability to raise some venture capitalists. It's all very good. It's all very, very good. And it all times very, very poorly with a TD Cohen analyst letter that suggested Oracle would have to fire of 25,000 people and potentially sell its valuable Cerna Healthcare IT infrastructure just to make it through. And again they paid $28 billion for Cerner. And TD Cohen said that would be $8 to $10 billion worth of cash flow. Again, nowhere near $189 billion. Look, look, I need people to realize that Oracle cannot afford this build out. It's committed to building 10 gigawatts of capacity for OpenAI. Meaning that on top of the $189 billion it needs already Oracle billion just to build those data centers. And on its last earnings, Oracle had a cash flow of negative $13 billion. It's not looking very positive. And yes, Oracle also just bought TikTok, a business that also. But it loses billions and billions of dollars. And yes, Larry Ellison's wealth is almost entirely tied up in Oracle stock which is currently hurtling towards hell with a velocity reserve for Thatcher and Reagan. I know you're gonna listen to this and I hear from a lot of you, no matter how many times I say this, everyone's like, oh, the TikTok deal's not about. It's not about making money, it's about political influence. Wow, you're the first fucking person to tell me that. No one has ever told me that other than the first 150 fucking people. Not an original thought. And Also not a particularly effective one. The algorithm on TikTok is already shitting its pants because Oracle can't stop messing with it because they want to do the propaganda thing. And guess how TikTok makes money? Ads. And how does TikTok show ads? Well, they keep you on the app with the algorithm. How do you think this is going to work? I know it all feels a little ridiculous, but there really is a future in which Oracle collapses. Larry Ellison's stock is entirely tied up in Oracle, and I just did a story called the Haters Guide to Oracle in my premium newsletter that goes through this. But this is a company accompli. I'm just keeping it a company in decline and they are really looking quite shaky. And even if they weren't in decline, the amount of money they're trying to spend here is genuinely impossible for them to afford. They are going to have to stress the debt markets, the levels they've never seen. And even then they cannot afford the payments unless OpenAI can pay them more than anyone has ever paid for Cloud, ever. I don't know. I'm excited. I don't hold stock. And until we know more, I really only have one question. Is that good?

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