Better Offline – "Monologue: The Year Ahead" (Jan 16, 2026)

Host: Ed Zitron
Podcast: Better Offline by Cool Zone Media and iHeartPodcasts
Episode Format: Solo monologue

Brief Overview

In this first monologue of 2026, host Ed Zitron delivers a candid, biting forecast for the tech industry in the year ahead—focusing on what he sees as an imminent reckoning for the generative AI "bubble." Drawing on insights from recent industry shifts, venture capital behaviors, and high-profile company drama, Zitron critiques tech hype, the unsustainable trajectories of major AI players, and the investor delusion fueling it all.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Imminent Reckoning for Generative AI (00:39–02:00)

• Atmosphere of Doom: Zitron likens the state of generative AI to a hidden mess you can’t locate, suggesting there’s trouble beneath the surface.

  "It kind of feels like when your dog takes a shit somewhere in your apartment, but you can't quite find it. There's that little stink, but it's not strong enough to give you an idea of where it is." (00:59)

• Cost & Monopoly Concerns:

  • New Nvidia Vera Rubin GPUs are expected to be more expensive due to RAM prices and Nvidia’s dominant market position.
  • Changes in server rack infrastructure (from Blackwell to Kyber) create additional hardware and energy cost barriers.

• AI Not Getting Cheaper or More Effective:

  • Generative AI remains neither cost-effective nor meaningfully improved for most companies and consumers.

2. The AI Bubble’s "Con Jobs" & Questionable Startups (02:00–04:10)

• Thinking Machines Debacle:

  • Ed highlights the story of Mira Murati (former OpenAI CTO) raising $2B for "Thinking Machines" with no clear business model—or even a product.
  • Investors’ willingness to pour money into such ventures is lampooned:

    "Mirror. I am an idiot. I'm a moron, I'm a goofball. I just love wasting money." (03:11)

• Firing Drama:

  • Notable staffer Barrett Zof was fired allegedly after sharing confidential information, but Ed questions what secrets such a company could even have.

• General Exhaustion with AI Hype:

  • Ed expresses open disdain for breathless coverage and venture capital "con jobs":

    "I'm not going to read a sentence about post training or fine tuning and pretend that means anything. Nothing has changed. Nothing is going on. Everyone is wasting money." (03:54)

3. Exploding Investments, Imploding Value (04:10–05:05)

• Data Center Spending vs. Real Returns:
  • 2025 saw $178.5 billion in US data center deals, yet Ed estimates well under $1B in genuine compute revenue outside of tech "hyperscalers" (giant cloud providers moving expenses).
  • Prediction: Speculative money will soon "go to zero" as demand and viable products fail to materialize.

4. OpenAI as the Keystone—And Point of Collapse (05:05–06:30)

• OpenAI as the Lizard King:

  • A widely-cited New York Times op-ed suggested OpenAI could run out of cash by July 2027, with its eventual acquisition by a cash-rich giant (e.g., Microsoft).
  • Zitron claims this was his idea originally and jokes about it being lifted from his newsletter, lightening the commentary:

    "OpenAI being absorbed by Microsoft. I know I fucking said it. If you can find it, email me ... I'll give you a big thumbs up in a photo." (05:41)

• Domino Effect:

  • If OpenAI collapses, Ed argues, so does the whole AI bubble—with venture capitalists losing their nerve industry-wide.

    "If OpenAI dies, the bubble bursts aggressively and brutally. OpenAI is the biggest brand name in AI, Sam Altman is the only well known founder and ChatGPT is the only AI product with any consumer penetration." (05:56)

5. AI Booster Counter-Narratives & Ed’s Cynicism (06:30–07:45)

• Anticipated Excuses:

  • Ed predicts AI boosters will shift narratives from “OpenAI is essential” to “it’s just OpenAI that failed, not AI as a whole,” and then escalate to "China threat" arguments and blaming skeptics if the bubble bursts.

• Rejection of Blame Shifting:

  • He calls out the investors as the true obstruction to real innovation:

    "The people destroying innovation are the ones diverting more than half of all venture capital to invest in unreliable, unproductive, unsustainable and unremarkable software in pursuit of creating the future of digital slavery." (07:35)

• Resigned Vigilance:

  • Despite the cynicism, Ed assures listeners he’ll keep covering these downward spirals:

    "But that doesn't mean I won't be here to tell you all about their collapse." (07:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the smell of a hidden crisis:

  "There's that little stink, but it's not strong enough to give you an idea of where it is. But you know, one day, without fail, you're going to find a nasty brown delight under your foot." – Ed Zitron, (00:59)

• On the backlash to meaningless AI jargon:

  "I'm not going to read a sentence about post training or fine tuning and pretend that means anything. Nothing has changed. Nothing is going on. Everyone is wasting money." – Ed Zitron, (03:54)

• On venture capital waste:

  "I can't be excited about the new asshole who raised a billion or $2 billion to do nothing." – Ed Zitron, (03:48)

• On OpenAI as the lynchpin:

  "If OpenAI dies, the bubble bursts aggressively and brutally... why would I invest in more in this?" – Ed Zitron, (05:56 – 06:18)

• On innovation’s true enemies:

  "The people destroying innovation are the ones diverting more than half of all venture capital to invest in unreliable, unproductive, unsustainable and unremarkable software in pursuit of creating the future of digital slavery." – Ed Zitron, (07:35)

Important Timestamps

• 00:39–02:00 — Ed sets the scene: Unsettling vibes in gen AI, market mechanics, and hardware shifts.
• 02:00–04:10 — The "Thinking Machines" saga, founder drama, and the ongoing con jobs.
• 04:10–05:05 — Data center spending and the mismatch with real-world revenue.
• 05:05–06:30 — OpenAI as the bubble's linchpin and speculative collapse scenarios.
• 06:30–07:45 — Predicted booster reactions and Ed’s verdict on innovation.

Tone & Language

Ed Zitron’s trademark style is on full display: acerbic, skeptical, and darkly funny—full of metaphors, sarcastic asides, and swearing. He is unconcerned with propriety, directly labeling much of what he sees as "bollocks," and unafraid to call out both investors and boosters.

Summary

Ed Zitron uses this solo episode to throw cold water on 2026’s AI optimism. He predicts a collapse of the AI bubble, skewers dubious startups and the excesses of venture capital, and lays out how OpenAI’s potential demise may take an entire investment thesis down with it. Full of pointed criticism and irreverent humor, the episode offers a bracing counterpoint to tech boosterism, making the case that much of what’s happening in generative AI today is smoke, mirrors, and expensive nonsense.

[End of Summary]