Monologue: The Year Ahead

Summary

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Better Offline – "Monologue: The Year Ahead" (Jan 16, 2026)

Host: Ed Zitron
Podcast: Better Offline by Cool Zone Media and iHeartPodcasts
Episode Format: Solo monologue

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Brief Overview

In this first monologue of 2026, host Ed Zitron delivers a candid, biting forecast for the tech industry in the year ahead—focusing on what he sees as an imminent reckoning for the generative AI "bubble." Drawing on insights from recent industry shifts, venture capital behaviors, and high-profile company drama, Zitron critiques tech hype, the unsustainable trajectories of major AI players, and the investor delusion fueling it all.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Imminent Reckoning for Generative AI (00:39–02:00)

• Atmosphere of Doom: Zitron likens the state of generative AI to a hidden mess you can’t locate, suggesting there’s trouble beneath the surface.

  "It kind of feels like when your dog takes a shit somewhere in your apartment, but you can't quite find it. There's that little stink, but it's not strong enough to give you an idea of where it is." (00:59)

• Cost & Monopoly Concerns:

  • New Nvidia Vera Rubin GPUs are expected to be more expensive due to RAM prices and Nvidia’s dominant market position.
  • Changes in server rack infrastructure (from Blackwell to Kyber) create additional hardware and energy cost barriers.

• AI Not Getting Cheaper or More Effective:

  • Generative AI remains neither cost-effective nor meaningfully improved for most companies and consumers.

2. The AI Bubble’s "Con Jobs" & Questionable Startups (02:00–04:10)

• Thinking Machines Debacle:

  • Ed highlights the story of Mira Murati (former OpenAI CTO) raising $2B for "Thinking Machines" with no clear business model—or even a product.
  • Investors’ willingness to pour money into such ventures is lampooned:

    "Mirror. I am an idiot. I'm a moron, I'm a goofball. I just love wasting money." (03:11)

• Firing Drama:

  • Notable staffer Barrett Zof was fired allegedly after sharing confidential information, but Ed questions what secrets such a company could even have.

• General Exhaustion with AI Hype:

  • Ed expresses open disdain for breathless coverage and venture capital "con jobs":

    "I'm not going to read a sentence about post training or fine tuning and pretend that means anything. Nothing has changed. Nothing is going on. Everyone is wasting money." (03:54)

3. Exploding Investments, Imploding Value (04:10–05:05)

• Data Center Spending vs. Real Returns:
  • 2025 saw $178.5 billion in US data center deals, yet Ed estimates well under $1B in genuine compute revenue outside of tech "hyperscalers" (giant cloud providers moving expenses).
  • Prediction: Speculative money will soon "go to zero" as demand and viable products fail to materialize.

4. OpenAI as the Keystone—And Point of Collapse (05:05–06:30)

• OpenAI as the Lizard King:

  • A widely-cited New York Times op-ed suggested OpenAI could run out of cash by July 2027, with its eventual acquisition by a cash-rich giant (e.g., Microsoft).
  • Zitron claims this was his idea originally and jokes about it being lifted from his newsletter, lightening the commentary:

    "OpenAI being absorbed by Microsoft. I know I fucking said it. If you can find it, email me ... I'll give you a big thumbs up in a photo." (05:41)

• Domino Effect:

  • If OpenAI collapses, Ed argues, so does the whole AI bubble—with venture capitalists losing their nerve industry-wide.

    "If OpenAI dies, the bubble bursts aggressively and brutally. OpenAI is the biggest brand name in AI, Sam Altman is the only well known founder and ChatGPT is the only AI product with any consumer penetration." (05:56)

5. AI Booster Counter-Narratives & Ed’s Cynicism (06:30–07:45)

• Anticipated Excuses:

  • Ed predicts AI boosters will shift narratives from “OpenAI is essential” to “it’s just OpenAI that failed, not AI as a whole,” and then escalate to "China threat" arguments and blaming skeptics if the bubble bursts.

• Rejection of Blame Shifting:

  • He calls out the investors as the true obstruction to real innovation:

    "The people destroying innovation are the ones diverting more than half of all venture capital to invest in unreliable, unproductive, unsustainable and unremarkable software in pursuit of creating the future of digital slavery." (07:35)

• Resigned Vigilance:

  • Despite the cynicism, Ed assures listeners he’ll keep covering these downward spirals:

    "But that doesn't mean I won't be here to tell you all about their collapse." (07:51)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the smell of a hidden crisis:

  "There's that little stink, but it's not strong enough to give you an idea of where it is. But you know, one day, without fail, you're going to find a nasty brown delight under your foot." – Ed Zitron, (00:59)

• On the backlash to meaningless AI jargon:

  "I'm not going to read a sentence about post training or fine tuning and pretend that means anything. Nothing has changed. Nothing is going on. Everyone is wasting money." – Ed Zitron, (03:54)

• On venture capital waste:

  "I can't be excited about the new asshole who raised a billion or $2 billion to do nothing." – Ed Zitron, (03:48)

• On OpenAI as the lynchpin:

  "If OpenAI dies, the bubble bursts aggressively and brutally... why would I invest in more in this?" – Ed Zitron, (05:56 – 06:18)

• On innovation’s true enemies:

  "The people destroying innovation are the ones diverting more than half of all venture capital to invest in unreliable, unproductive, unsustainable and unremarkable software in pursuit of creating the future of digital slavery." – Ed Zitron, (07:35)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:39–02:00 — Ed sets the scene: Unsettling vibes in gen AI, market mechanics, and hardware shifts.
• 02:00–04:10 — The "Thinking Machines" saga, founder drama, and the ongoing con jobs.
• 04:10–05:05 — Data center spending and the mismatch with real-world revenue.
• 05:05–06:30 — OpenAI as the bubble's linchpin and speculative collapse scenarios.
• 06:30–07:45 — Predicted booster reactions and Ed’s verdict on innovation.

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Tone & Language

Ed Zitron’s trademark style is on full display: acerbic, skeptical, and darkly funny—full of metaphors, sarcastic asides, and swearing. He is unconcerned with propriety, directly labeling much of what he sees as "bollocks," and unafraid to call out both investors and boosters.

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Summary

Ed Zitron uses this solo episode to throw cold water on 2026’s AI optimism. He predicts a collapse of the AI bubble, skewers dubious startups and the excesses of venture capital, and lays out how OpenAI’s potential demise may take an entire investment thesis down with it. Full of pointed criticism and irreverent humor, the episode offers a bracing counterpoint to tech boosterism, making the case that much of what’s happening in generative AI today is smoke, mirrors, and expensive nonsense.

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[End of Summary]

Transcript

[Ed Zitron]

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[Ed Zitron]

Callzone Media hello, and welcome to your first Better offline monologue of 2026. I'm your host, Ed Zitron. Better Offline we're back from CES and we've already had a great conversation with the wonderful Steve Burke of Gamers Nexus, and this felt like a good time to take stock and talk about what I see happening in the year ahead. Also legitimately, thank you all for listening at ces. It was one of the best weeks of my life and we made some amazing stuff and you've all sent wonderful emails and such. Love hearing from you. But let's talk about this year. I have a strong gut instinct that this is the year of reckonings for the AI bubble. Nothing I'm seeing in the news, the markets, or hearing from people I talk to behind the scenes suggests that things are improving at all. In fact, it kind of feels like when your dog takes a shit somewhere in your apartment, but you can't quite find it. There's that little stink, but it's not strong enough to give you an idea of where it is. But you know, one day, without fail, you're going to find a nasty brown delight under your foot. Colorful similes Aside, though, generative AI is not becoming cheaper, more effective, or more efficient. Nvidia's new Vera Rubin GPUs are likely to be more expensive than ever, in part thanks to the ever increasing price of ram and in part because of its single vendor monopoly which allows them to set prices, well, they to stun. And the other thing with them as well is they're going to allow people to use the same racks from Blackwell. So the things you put the GPUs into, but only for the beginning of Vera Rubin. Then they're going to move to these giant, I think they're called Kyber racks. The current ones are called Oberon. Someone will email and correct me, but it's one of those two. The new one is going to require an entirely new cooling system architecture. It's all very good. But on the subject of things that are also very good, I believe we're also on the verge of the multiple con jobs of the AI bubble collapsing too. In July of last year, former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, who barely appeared to be able to get out a fucking sentence in every interview I've seen, founded thinking machines, raising $2 billion at a $12 billion valuation, all while refusing to tell investors what product they'd make or what the business plan was or how they'd make money or anything like that. Naturally, investors were like, take my money please. I need to give this to you. Mirror. I am an idiot. I'm a moron, I'm a goofball. I just love wasting money. Now, when this happened, they were able to poach OpenAI's VP of Research for Post Training Barrett Zof, among two other staffers. I just really can't engineer the excitement to name and then a few days ago, as reported by friend of the show Kylie Roberson of Core Memory, Zoph was fired from Thinking Machines after telling Marathi he was considering leaving, with Wired's Max Zeft reporting in a follow up that the firing involved Zof sharing confidential information with competitors. What confidential information? What possible information could he have had about the things they're not building? About the bullshit? Who knows? I think she just fired him because she was mad that he was leaving. What the fuck is Thinking Machines building exactly? They put out a single AI thing last year for, and I quote, controlling every aspect of model training and fine tuning or some such bollocks. I realize I'm being a little dismissive, but I just do not have it in me anymore to feign excitement over every single one of these two or three or whatever. Fraudulent. Okay, not literally fraudulent. I have no evidence of that. This is a libel. Blah blah blah. It's not fraudulent. Just looks like bollocks. I can't be excited about the new asshole who raised a billion or $2 billion to do nothing. I don't have it in me anymore. I'm not going to read a sentence about post trading or fine tuning and pretend that means anything. It doesn't mean anything anymore. Nothing has changed. Nothing is going on. Everyone is wasting money. And I. I can't care about who looted billions of dollars from venture capitalists last. Nor do I believe that anything should happen to this venture capitalist other than being tarred and feathered by their limited partners. These people aren't building anything. They're huffing their own farts and getting paid tens of millions of dollars to do it. I'm sick of hearing about them, and I think this is the year we see this kind of con die. We're long past the point at which generative AI has made sense. Bloomberg reported last year that there were $178.5 billion billion dollars of data center deals in the US alone in 2025, and based on my rough analysis, there's less than a billion dollars of actual compute revenue outside of hyperscalers who are just trying to move it off of their balance sheet so their earnings look better. The demand isn't arriving and neither are the products, and all of this speculative money sloshing around is going to zero. I also want to be clearer about something else I keep hearing about. If OpenAI dies, the AI bubble bursts with it. Mr. Sebastian Malaby of the Council on Foreign Relations had a piece in the New York Times a few days ago saying that he believed OpenAI would run out of money by July 2027, adding that, and I quote, An OpenAI failure wouldn't be an indictment of AI, but merely the end of the most hype driven builder of it. He also said that the probable result is that OpenAI would be absorbed by Microsoft, Amazon or another cash rich behemoth. Which I am going to sit down and reread a lot of my newsletters because I'm pretty sure that's fucking lifted from my work. Like OpenAI being absorbed by Microsoft. I know I fucking said it. If you can find it, email me easyatteroffline.com and I will give you a big thumbs up in a photo. But I want to be clear. In any case, if OpenAI dies, the bubble bursts aggressively and brutally. OpenAI is the biggest brand name in AI, Sam Altman is the only well known founder and ChatGPT is the only AI product with any consumer penetration. And no Microsoft and Google renaming products doesn't count. Nor does Nano Banana. I can't believe I nearly got away with saying or thinking about Nano Banana for a week. More importantly, OpenAI is the only company with any real demand for AI compute outside of Anthropic, another company that relies on billions of dollars of venture capital subsidies to stop itself from falling over and dying. As you can hear, I'm a little bit heated on this subject because I'm really, really sick of hearing this. I'm really sick of hearing things from these AI boosters are getting more crazy and more defensive claiming that this is an OpenAI bubble, not an AI bubble. What do you think happens when AI companies try and raise money after OpenAI dies? Do you think investors are going to think. You think they're going to do the Tobias Funke poly thing from Arrested Development? Well, it didn't work for them, it will work for us. No, they're going to say, oh shit. Oh shit. The one company with all the press, all the money, all the infrastructure, all the attention, all of the governmental support died on its ass. Why would I invest in more in this? And I realize venture capitalists are fucking stupid at the best of times, but even by this standard, I think that they're going to be too scared to put the money in. And I don't think anyone else is going to be able to justify it either. But I do think, by the way, AI boosters are about to get real crazy out there. I think you're going to see them say it's an open AI bubble, not an AI bubble. Then we need these investments to beat China. Then they're going to blame people like me, AI skeptics. They're going to say luddites destroyed innovation. And if you hear that, know that in reality the people destroying innovation are the ones diverting more than half of all venture capital to invest in unreliable, unproductive, unsustainable and unremarkable software in pursuit of creating the future of digital slavery. I'm sick of these fucking people. But that doesn't mean I won't be here to tell you all about their collapse. I'll be back next week with a three or four parter and it's going to be a bomb burner. You're going to love it, Zetronow.

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[Ed Zitron]

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