Caroline Elkins is a Pulitzer Prize–winning author and one of the world’s leading historians on empire, power, and institutions.

We explored a central question: How should leaders think when the world order is changing?

A few themes stood out.

We’re not in a temporary moment of instability, we’re in the middle of a structural shift. The global system that business leaders have relied on for decades - predictable, rules-based, and increasingly globalized is evolving into something far more complex and fragmented.

Through her lens of history, Caroline emphasizes that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. Today’s world echoes moments like the interwar period when power was shifting, leadership was uncertain, and global coordination weakened. But unlike the past, this transition is unfolding alongside massive technological disruption, from AI to semiconductor supply chains, making outcomes far less predictable.

The conversation also touched on the rise of China, the long-term potential of India, and the relative decline of the U.S. The future is increasingly multipolar, with no single country fully shaping the global order.

One of the most striking insights: globalization isn’t ending, it’s being reconfigured. Supply chains, alliances, and trade flows are changing shape, not disappearing. Nowhere is this more evident than in semiconductors, where national security, industrial policy, and global dependence intersect.

For leaders, the implication is clear: This is not a time to optimize for efficiency alone. It’s a time to build resilience, think in scenarios, and prepare for second- and third-order effects, especially as geopolitical tensions reshape energy, markets, and supply chains.

Perhaps the biggest mindset shift: The world isn’t necessarily becoming worse, it’s becoming different.
And those who adapt early will be best positioned to navigate what comes next.

Here are the Top 10 Takeaways from the conversation:

This is a structural shift, not a cycle. Global power and economic systems are being fundamentally reconfigured.
History “rhymes” most during transitions. Today resembles the interwar period of uncertain leadership and shifting power.
The U.S. is in relative decline. Not collapse, but losing uncontested dominance across innovation and geopolitics.
The future is multipolar. China’s rise and India’s emergence are reshaping global balance.
Globalization is evolving, not ending. Expect regional blocs, new alliances, and reconfigured trade flows.
Technology is reshaping power dynamics. AI, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure are central to economic and national security.
Semiconductor supply chains are strategic battlegrounds. Dependence on regions like Taiwan highlights vulnerabilities and is driving major policy shifts globally.
State vs. market models are back in focus. Governments are playing a larger role in driving innovation and industrial policy.
Conflict has deep ripple effects. Wars create long-term disruptions across energy, inflation, and global supply chains.
Resilience > efficiency. Scenario planning, risk mapping, and long-term thinking are now essential for leaders.