Venezuela’s “open for business” moment gets a reality check, plus a wild Chavez-in-Houston story that tells you everything you need to know. Mark and David Pursell unpack why Exxon and friends are hesitant, what the EIA gets right and wrong, why the forward curve is the real lie detector, how Iran risk actually moves barrels, BP’s renewable hangover, and Tesla casually speed-running a lithium refinery in Texas.

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00:00 Tech hiccups and setup
01:00 Chavez Houston story
05:00 Trump press conference and Venezuela hype
08:00 Why Venezuela isn’t investable
14:30 EIA outlook and US production
19:00 Rigs, frac spreads, and revisions
22:00 Backwardation vs contango
27:00 Iran supply risk
30:30 Condensate and power constraints
38:30 Geopolitical risk premiums
40:30 BP write-downs and strategy shifts
46:30 Energy transition reality check
53:30 Tesla lithium refinery in Texas
56:30 Data centers and power scramble
01:01:30 Wrap-up and outlook

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Trump vs Exxon on Venezuela, Chevron’s Caution, & Conoco’s $6–$12B Problem | BDE 01.19.26