
Today, we're diving deep into the national security principle of strategic deterrence—a policy designed to win wars not by preparing for their inevitability, but by preventing them outright.
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Narrator
On October 14, 1962, Major Richard S. Heiser piloted a U2 reconnaissance plane over western Cuba on a high risk intelligence gathering mission. The United States had received unsettling reports about Soviet activity in Cuba.
Historical Context Expert
After studying reconnaissance photographs made with high powered cameras from planes flying several miles from the Cuban coast.
Narrator
It was Heiser's job to secure clear photographic evidence to support these reports.
Historical Context Expert
Literally thousands of pictures can be made on each flight by these planes.
Narrator
Heiser's flight lasted six hours. When he returned, the images he captured were immediately transported to the National Photographic interpretation center in D.C. and analyzed by export.
Historical Context Expert
And they are studied by photo interpreters who are capable of analyzing details that an untrained eye would miss.
Narrator
Within a day the initial reports had been confirmed.
Historical Context Expert
Suddenly the veil is torn from the Russian secrets.
Narrator
The Soviet Union was installing nuclear missiles in Cuba just 90 miles from the US mainland.
Historical Context Expert
Here, for example, is a medium range ballistic missile base. Another photo revealed a surface to air missile assembly depot airstrips for high performance mig 21 jet plane. Easily capable of strikes far into the United States.
Narrator
These missiles had the capability to strike significant portions of the continental United states. Less than 48 hours after the conclusion of Heiser's flight, the photographs he had captured were sitting on President Kennedy's desk.
Historical Context Expert
Good evening my fellow citizens. Unmistakable evidence has established the fact that a series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation on that imprisoned island. The purpose of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capability against the Western Hemisphere.
Narrator
What followed was a tense 13 day standoff between the US and Soviet Union. A standoff that infamously became known as the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Historical Context Expert
Castro said that they had better come ready for combat.
Narrator
Today we're diving deep into the national security principle of strategic deterrence. A policy designed to win wars not by preparing for their inevitability, but by preventing them outright. Welcome to the Big Ideas Lab. Your weekly exploration inside Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Hear untold stories, meet boundary pushing pioneers and get unparalleled access inside the gates. From national security challenges to computing revolutions. Discover the innovations that are shaping tomorrow. Today, after intense negotiations, public statements and private communications between President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, a deal was struck Friday night.
Historical Context Expert
Got a message from Khrushchev which said that you would withdraw these missiles and fighting. We cannot plan to invade Cuba.
Narrator
The Soviet Union agreed to dismantle the missile installations in exchange for a US public declaration in agreement never to invade Cuba.
Historical Context Expert
We have to wait to see how it unfolds. The withdrawal of these Missiles and the cessation of subversive activity by them. So I would think that maybe only one more chapter in a rather long story. As far as Cuba's concerned.
Narrator
The resolution of the Cuban Missile crisis was a turning point in the Cold war, showing both sides the catastrophic potential of a nuclear war and the need for careful diplomacy in nuclear negotiations.
Dr. Marvin Adams
Strategic deterrence is convincing the adversary. When they wake up in the morning every day, they look and they say, today's not the day to mess with them.
Brad Walleen
You know, in the context of why nuclear deterrence has worked so well, it's that the use of them is thought of as being unacceptable, and therefore all countries have wanted to do anything they could to avoid actually using it.
Narrator
Strategic deterrence is a cornerstone of national security strategy, leveraging the threat of overwhelming retaliation to prevent adversaries from initiating or escalating conflicts.
Dr. Marvin Adams
One primary overarching goal of US national security is to preserve our way of life and that of our partners and allies without fighting major wars. So think of that as the great big objective out there.
Narrator
Dr. Marvin Adams serves as the Deputy Administrator for Defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration, or nnsa.
Dr. Marvin Adams
A major part of our strategy for achieving that goal is deterrence.
Narrator
He heads the team tasked with ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of the nation's entire nuclear weapons stockpile. Dr. Adams explains that effective deterrence uses various tactics, all built on a strong and credible nuclear deterrent.
Dr. Marvin Adams
There's a lot of different ways to deter your potential adversaries from taking actions that might lead to those wars that you want to avoid or that might degrade your ability to keep going with your way of life. Some of those are denial of benefit. For example, suppose we could make our electric power grid so hard and resilient that the adversary looks at it and says, I might as well not bother. I can't do anything to them. That's a form of deterrence. At the other end of the spectrum in the deterrence toolbox is the imposition of cost. If you can show your potential adversaries that you have the ability to impose costs that they would find unacceptable in response to some aggressive act, then they're deterred from doing it. What we have found as the national security and global security environment has evolved over the years, consistently in the last many years, our military and civilian defense leaders have said uniformly, repeatedly, that all of our tools in our toolbox work only when they're built on a foundation of a strong nuclear deterrent. The nuclear deterrent has to be credible and effective in Order for these other tools to work.
Narrator
Deterrence as a political strategy is not a novel concept. In the 5th century BC, the ancient Greek general Hermocrates remarked, when there is mutual fear, men think twice before they make aggressions upon one another. What Hermocrates could not have foreseen is that more than 2,000 years later, the stakes would be immeasurably higher as humanity wielded the devastating power of nuclear weapons. In response to these risks, nations have sought ways to prevent the outbreak of nuclear conflict. This nuclear strategic deterrence is the bedrock of U.S. national security strategy and the backbone of global stability.
Michael Zika
Our national defense posture stands on a robust nuclear deterrent.
Narrator
That's Michael Zika, the principal Associate Deputy Director for Strategic Deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Michael Zika
Our national policy is that as long as nuclear weapons exist in the world, the United States will maintain its own ability to respond if attacked.
Narrator
During the Cold War, we saw the power of effective deterrence in action. While terrible regional conflicts such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War occurred. The worst outcome, open nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union, was avoided. Despite the constant fear of escalation, this deterrent approach successfully prevented the catastrophic potential of a full scale nuclear conflict between superpowers. But the deterrent strategies of the 1960s and 70s are no longer the same. Today, technologies have advanced and the geopolitical landscape has evolved. This evolution demands new ways of thinking about deterrence and a renewed commitment to global stability. The fact that past strategies avert a disaster does not guarantee their effectiveness in the future or even the present. This is the greatest challenge of deterrence. Maintaining a credible defense to ensure lasting stability. What was once a rush to develop the atomic bomb has now evolved into a continuous effort to uphold effective, effective deterrence.
Dr. Marvin Adams
If you want to maintain deterrence against some potential adversary and you watch over time, their mix of assets that they value is going to change over time. Their defensive systems around those assets change over time. And so as those things change over time, then in order for your deterrent to remain at the same level of credibility and effectiveness, you might very well have to evolve your delivery systems or deterrent force.
Narrator
Deterrence is more than just amassing the largest stockpile of weapons. It's about understanding the psychology of your adversaries. As defense analyst William Kaufman noted, in principle, the requirements of deterrence are relatively simple. In practice, however, they turn out to be exceptionally complex, expensive, and difficult to obtain, end quote.
Michael Zika
Our job is to deter an adversary that we don't always understand completely, and we don't share their value systems. So what a China or a Russia holds dear is something that we have to understand because it is different from what we hold dear. It's not just the technology. It's an understanding of the psychology of what our adversary needs.
Dr. Marvin Adams
The psychology part, that's a tough one. How effective your deterrent is does depend on the way your potential adversaries think. Then we can't always know their decision process, how much risk tolerance they have. There's always some uncertainty there to reduce that uncertainty.
Narrator
Maintaining a credible and ready nuclear deterrent is necessary not only for dissuading adversaries, but also for ensuring the trust of allies.
Dr. Marvin Adams
It also matters that our allies and partners have faith as well. If you look around the world, we are unique in that our deterrent is intended to be an umbrella over other countries, not just our own. We would like to deter aggressive acts on our NATO ally countries. We would also like to deter aggressive acts in the Indo Pacific, aggressive acts against Taiwan, for example.
Narrator
Understanding the psychology of our adversaries, while supporting our allies is essential to effective deterrence. This dual trust helps prevent adversaries from attacking our allies. It also discourages those allies from pursuing their own nuclear arsenals. This approach reduces the spread of nuclear weapon technology, a diplomatic principle known as non proliferation. And history has shown us how important non proliferation can be.
Dr. Marvin Adams
Mr. Gorbachev teared down this wall watching live pictures.
Narrator
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has been removed from power and there are tanks now in the streets of Moscow.
Historical Context Expert
The Soviet Union itself is no more.
Narrator
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a seismic event in global politics.
Historical Context Expert
Mr. Bush will look ahead to a future of dealing with the new Commonwealth of Independent States. And we are told now the President will go ahead with formal recognition of those republics, notably Russia.
Narrator
As the Iron Curtain collapsed, the once monolithic USSR fragmented into 15 independent republics. Amidst this chaos, the fate of thousands of nuclear warheads hung in the balance. Nuclear material and warheads were scattered across the newly independent states, with the highest concentrations in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This dispersal presented an unprecedented challenge to global security.
Dr. Marvin Adams
In the NNSA leadership, we really do see the non proliferation and arms control and nuclear deterrent as all working together toward this same goal of preserving our way of life without fighting major wars.
Narrator
Former Soviet republics, grappling with newfound independence and economic instability, struggled to maintain control over these potent arsenals. The fear was palpable. What if nuclear weapons fell into the wrong hands? International efforts like the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program led by the United States played a crucial role during this time. This program aimed to secure and dismantle weapons of mass destruction in former Soviet states, preventing them from being sold or stolen. But the task was monumental. Treaties and negotiations became vital tools in the quest for stability. The New START treaty, among others, not only aimed to cap the number of nuclear weapons, but also facilitated the dismantling of these deadly arsenals.
Dr. Marvin Adams
That makes the job of the non proliferation community easier. Let's suppose that the arms control community is very successful. Then the job that I have to deliver for the nuclear deterrent force is easier to deliver than it would be in an unconstrained environment where numbers might be getting bigger quickly. At the same time, if what we're doing in the nuclear deterrent force is credible and effective, that can help bring our potential adversaries to the negotiating table to negotiate further arms control treaties. They basically say, okay, I can't beat you, let's all reduce our expenditures here. You really have to get down into the details about the likely scenarios and try to put yourself in the head of the adversary leadership and say what would make them get up tomorrow morning and say no, today's not today.
Narrator
While nuclear deterrence, non proliferation and arms control are critical strategies for achieving global peace, not all countries share this goal. What are the implications when some are determined to pursue their own agendas?
Historical Context Expert
The United States has been tracking a.
Narrator
Major flow of Russian weapons into eastern Ukraine.
Historical Context Expert
Russian troops spreading out throughout the strategic strategic Crimean Peninsula.
Michael Zika
Russia's annexation and further aggression in eastern.
Narrator
Ukraine, MH17 was blown out of the.
Historical Context Expert
Sky by pro Russian separatists.
Narrator
Secretary of State Ukraine woke to explosions around the capital Kiev. Russia's stationed its first batch of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. When questioned about the risks of nuclear.
Historical Context Expert
War over Ukraine, Mr. Putin said Russia's.
Narrator
Nuclear doctrine permits the use of weapons in response to a number of threats.
Brad Walleen
Well over a decade, it's been very clear that Russia has been very aggressively increasing its number of nuclear weapons and also diversifying the number of platforms that it has. Putin just announced the successful test of a new nuclear powered missile.
Narrator
He has very powerful weapons he's willing to use in a retaliatory counter strike. So many hundreds of our missiles will appear in the air that not a single enemy will have a chance of survival.
Brad Walleen
Almost anything you can think of, they can make it nuclear.
Narrator
That's Brad Walleen, the Deputy Director for Strategic Deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Brad Walleen
We have an existing treaty called the New START Treaty. I am honored to mark this historic completion of The New START Treaty, which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads.
Narrator
New start, or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, is an agreement that was signed in 2010 between Russia and the U.S. the treaty aims to reduce and limit the number of strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems.
Brad Walleen
But what Russia has done is they have been mostly increasing in the area of non strategic nuclear warheads. So there is no formal treaty or limit on those.
Narrator
This treaty defines strategic warheads as those deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles or ICBMs, submarine launched ballistic missiles, also known as SLBMs, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. While Russia has not increased production of these strategic warheads, it has increased production of non strategic warheads, also known as tactical nuclear weapons. These tactical weapons are designed for use on the battlefield in military situations, typically with shorter ranges and lower yields compared to strategic nuclear weapons.
Brad Walleen
They have backed out of some of the verification measures that we both agreed to as part of that treaty, which will expire unless we do something in 2026.
Narrator
Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the world experienced a period of relative peace and stability.
Historical Context Expert
That confrontation is now over. The nuclear threat, while far from gone, is receding. Eastern Europe is free.
Narrator
Since the mid 2010s, this piece has started to crack. Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine and its increased production of non strategic nuclear weapons signal a troubling shift. And Russia isn't the only country increasing their nuclear weapon output.
Michael Zika
We're seeing a very resurgent Russia. At the same time, we are seeing China aggressively expanding their nuclear capabilities.
Narrator
Another double digit increase in China's military spending. Concern tonight about China's military capabilities amid a report the country recently tested a nuclear capable hypersonic missile. The report says the missile circled the.
Brad Walleen
Earth before speeding toward its target, demonstrating an advanced capability in space. That quote, caught U.S. intelligence by surprise.
Michael Zika
And so for the very first time in our nation's history, we are now faced with the potential future in which we have two adversaries who are each a near peer to the United States.
Brad Walleen
There was an attempt to try to update the New START Treaty and make it a trilateral treaty. So have both Russia, China and the US as part of the treaty. And I think China has indicated they really have no interest in being part of that.
Narrator
As Russia and China continue to enhance their nuclear capabilities, the United States faces an unparalleled challenge in maintaining its strategic deterrence and ensuring global stability.
Michael Zika
It's unprecedented in our history, these striking.
Brad Walleen
Images of Chinese warships off the coast of Taiwan this month, a dire warning of a potential invasion that could Plunge the world into an economic catastrophe and start a hot war between the US and China.
Narrator
The once solid foundation of post Cold War peace is now being tested by these emerging threats demanding renewed efforts in arms control and international cooperation.
Brad Walleen
China has historically had a much smaller stockpile than we have and it's in the public now. What our general national assessments of Chinese capabilities are, they're dramatically increasing the number of nuclear warheads they've had and investing in the associated infrastructure to make that possible. So the ability to make key components of nuclear weapons, they're investing in that significantly. The number of warheads that we believe they have always seems to be more than what we expected that they would have. Russia has been our historic adversary. They definitely have nuclear weapons that work and they definitely have many nuclear weapons that can be a real threat to us. China, we often call our pacing adversary because in a strategic sense they have the ability to really outspend us on these things.
Narrator
President Xi Jinping said he wants reunification with Taiwan. 5,5 trillion yen. That's around 2,225 billion US dollars. It's up by 7.2% compared to the year before.
Brad Walleen
The military is being modernized and expanded.
Narrator
In preparation for the use of force against Taiwan. By the mid-2030s, Brad expects that China will be near peers with the US and Russia. Meanwhile, nuclear arms are proliferating in other countries as well. North Korea claims it has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb at device which can be loaded onto a long range ballistic missile.
Brad Walleen
North Korea, they have been the country that's most actively been testing nuclear weapons. They continue to do a substantial amount of missile testing.
Narrator
It was a nuclear test 10 times more powerful than the previous attempt by Pyongyang.
Brad Walleen
They definitely have a stockpile that can threaten U.S. assets. And then some concerns about what Iran might do.
Narrator
The International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has increased its production of near weapons grade uranium.
Brad Walleen
They've been continuing to build up material and concerns that one day they might decide to become a nuclear weapons state as well.
Narrator
The Strategic Posture Committee is a commission tasked by Congress to examine and make recommendations with respect to the long term strategic posture of the United States. In 2023, the committee wrote. The vision of a world without nuclear weapons, aspirational even in 2009 is more improbable now than ever. The new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War. Today, the United States is on the cusp of having not one, but two nuclear peer adversaries, each with ambitions to change the international status quo by force, if necessary, a situation which the United States did not anticipate. While the risk of a major nuclear conflict remains low, the risk of military conflict with either or both Russia and China, while not inevitable, has grown, and with it, the risk of nuclear use, possibly against the US Homeland, end quote.
Michael Zika
Our thinking about deterrence and what it means to deter an adversary has oriented around a singular adversary. We're now having to rethink that and ask ourselves questions around how do we simultaneously deter two adversaries who have capabilities that are near peers to what we have? So the thinking on deterrence is really undergoing a revitalization, and that has ramifications on what nuclear force we think about deploying most effectively, which, of course, has a strong impact on how we do our work. What capabilities do we need to deliver? What capabilities give us the most flexibility for assuring our allies, who are now exposed to adversaries in a different way. In terms of how China and Russia attempt to project their own power, the.
Narrator
US Must adapt its deterrent strategies to face both Russia and China simultaneously, each with significant nuclear capabilities.
Michael Zika
It's quite complicated, and it is a massive challenge both in terms of how we think about designing a nuclear weapon, but also how we think about what is the appropriate force structure and how we deploy that and how the Department of Defense postures itself to maintain that.
Narrator
Maintaining a credible and effective deterrent is crucial for non proliferation and arms control. It's about sending a clear message that any aggressive act will be met with overwhelming and unacceptable consequences. So how do we ensure our deterrent remains strong and reliable in the face of evolving threats from nations like Russia and China? The answer lies in the relentless innovation and dedication of the team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and their partners across the nuclear security enterprise.
Michael Zika
We have a deployed or active stockpile that's out in the field today, and we have a responsibility to make sure that that stockpile is safe, secure and reliable. It will always perform if it's asked to, and it will never do something unexpected in an accident or a safety scenario.
Narrator
Next episode, we'll take you inside Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to see how their scientists and engineers are tackling these challenges head on.
Brad Walleen
A key challenge of stockpile stewardship is how do we both maintain the existing deterrent as well as modernize it in the absence of nuclear testing? In order to do that, we have to reproduce the conditions that a nuclear weapon experiences.
Narrator
We'll explore the advanced technologies they're developing to maintain and progress our nuclear stockpile and learn about the crucial role Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory plays in preserving our nation's strategic edge. I'm just amazed by what we can accomplish and have accomplished and will accomplish because of the teams that we can put together here at the laboratory and the capabilities that we can bring to bear all of that. Next time on Big Ideas Lab, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory invites you to join our diverse team of professional professionals where opportunities abound for engineers, scientists, IT experts, welders, administrative and business professionals, and more. At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, your contributions are not just jobs, they're a chance to make an impact. From strengthening US Security to leading the charge in revolutionary energy solutions and expanding the boundaries of scientific knowledge, our culture at the lab values collaboration, innovation and a relentless pursuit of excellence. We're committed to nurturing your professional journey within a supportive workspace and offering a comprehensive benefits package designed to ensure your well being and secure your future. Seize the opportunity to help solve something monumental. Dive into Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's wide variety of job openings at LLNL.govcareers where you can also learn more about our application process. This is your chance to join a team dedicated to a mission that matters. Make your mark. Visit llnl.govcareers today to discover the roles waiting for you. Remember, your expertise might just be the spotlight of our next podcast interview. Don't delay. Uncover the myriad of opportunities available at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Thank you for tuning in to Big Ideas Lab. If you loved what you heard, please let us know by leaving a rating and review. And if you haven't already, don't forget to hit the Follow or Subscribe button in your podcast app to keep up with our latest episode. Thanks for listening.
Host: Mission.org
Episode Release Date: October 1, 2024
In this episode of Big Ideas Lab, hosted by Mission.org, the focus is on the critical national security principle of strategic deterrence. Strategic deterrence is a policy aimed at preventing wars by convincing adversaries that the costs of aggression would outweigh any potential gains. The discussion delves into historical contexts, contemporary challenges, and the evolving strategies necessary to maintain global stability.
The episode opens with a recount of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a pivotal moment in Cold War history.
Major Richard S. Heiser's Mission (00:10 - 02:07): On October 14, 1962, Major Richard S. Heiser undertook a high-risk reconnaissance mission over Cuba in a U2 plane to gather intelligence on Soviet activities. His six-hour flight resulted in critical photographic evidence confirming the Soviet Union's installation of nuclear missiles in Cuba, just 90 miles from the US mainland. This revelation led to a tense 13-day standoff between the US and the Soviet Union, ultimately resolved through intense negotiations where the Soviets agreed to dismantle their missile installations in exchange for a US commitment not to invade Cuba.
Notable Quote:
The core of strategic deterrence is to prevent conflict by ensuring potential adversaries understand the severe consequences of aggression.
Dr. Marvin Adams on Deterrence (03:55 - 06:33): Dr. Marvin Adams, Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), emphasizes that the primary goal of US national security is to preserve its way of life without engaging in major wars. He explains that effective deterrence involves both denial of benefit—making systems so resilient that adversaries find them unattractive targets—and imposition of cost, ensuring that any aggressive act would result in unacceptable retaliation.
Notable Quotes:
Historical Perspective (06:33 - 07:11): The episode traces the roots of deterrence back to ancient times, noting that while the concept of mutual fear to prevent aggression is old, the existence of nuclear weapons has exponentially raised the stakes.
Notable Quote:
The landscape of strategic deterrence has evolved with emerging global threats from Russia and China.
Resurgence of Russia and Rise of China (17:47 - 19:14): Both Russia and China have significantly expanded their nuclear capabilities. Russia has increased its production of tactical nuclear weapons and diversified its platforms, while China is rapidly modernizing its military and expanding its nuclear arsenal, including developing hypersonic missiles.
Notable Quotes:
Implications of Dual Adversaries (22:27 - 23:29): With both Russia and China emerging as near-peer adversaries, the United States must adapt its deterrence strategies to address the complexities of deterring two significant nuclear powers simultaneously. This requires innovative approaches in nuclear force structure and deployment.
Notable Quote:
Maintaining a credible deterrent also involves robust arms control and non-proliferation efforts.
New START Treaty and Beyond (15:55 - 21:28): The New START Treaty between the US and Russia aims to limit strategic nuclear warheads but faces challenges as Russia increases non-strategic warheads and China remains outside the treaty. Efforts to include China in arms control agreements have met resistance, complicating global non-proliferation efforts.
Notable Quotes:
Challenges of Nuclear Proliferation: The episode highlights concerns over countries like North Korea and Iran, which are advancing their nuclear capabilities and complicating the global security landscape.
Notable Quotes:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) plays a pivotal role in maintaining and advancing the United States' strategic deterrence capabilities.
Maintaining the Nuclear Stockpile (24:19 - 25:03): LLNL's team is dedicated to ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of the nation's nuclear arsenal without the need for nuclear testing. This involves cutting-edge research and development to simulate nuclear conditions and innovate new technologies for stockpile stewardship.
Notable Quote:
The episode concludes by underscoring the importance of continual innovation and strategic adaptation in maintaining effective deterrence amid evolving global threats. As the geopolitical landscape changes with the rise of multiple nuclear-capable adversaries, institutions like Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are essential in preserving national security and global stability.
For those interested in the intricate balance of global security and the strategies that prevent nuclear conflict, this episode of Big Ideas Lab offers a comprehensive exploration of strategic deterrence, enriched with expert insights and historical perspectives.