Big Take — "A Guide to the State of Trump and the Union"

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts)
Host: David Gura
Guest: Josh Wingrove (Bloomberg White House Reporter)
Date: February 24, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines President Donald Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address—his first in his second term—against a backdrop of political volatility, economic uncertainty, and simmering global tensions. Bloomberg’s David Gura and White House reporter Josh Wingrove break down the key policy battles Trump faces, including the fallout from a major Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his tariff policy, the administration's handling of foreign threats (notably Iran and Ukraine), concerns over domestic affordability, and the stakes of the looming midterm elections. The discussion explores what Trump is likely to emphasize, how he manages political and policy turbulence, and the potential impact on the Republican Party.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Supreme Court Strikes Down Major Tariff Policy

• Context: Days before the State of the Union, the Supreme Court rules 6-3 against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs (02:08, 04:23).
• Trump's Reaction: Visibly angered, Trump publicly rebukes certain members of the court for "not having the courage to do what's right for our country."
  • Quote:

    "I'm ashamed of certain members of the court, absolutely ashamed for not having the courage to do what's right for our country."
    —Donald Trump (02:08)

• Policy Fallout:
  • Massive uncertainty for U.S. trade deals; EU pauses deal implementation, Canada and Mexico reconsider USMCA.
  • "Trump has been pressuring the court for months against this decision... he's sort of been tweeting through it... riffing, saying, wow, the court actually gave me even more power than they intended." (Josh Wingrove, 04:31)
• Implication for Speech: Expect Trump to "riff and probably rage" about tariffs, especially when going off-script.
  • "That's the real X factor... how much will he deviate from the prepared text?" (Josh Wingrove, 06:27)

2. Foreign Policy Flashpoints: Iran & Ukraine

• Iran:
  • Trump is openly weighing a significant U.S. intervention against Iran, following mixed messaging after recent strikes (06:53).
  • "He’s leaving a lot of options on the table, including the direct American military involvement in Iran." (Josh Wingrove, 07:54)
  • Internal MAGA debate between isolationists and interventionists persists.
  • Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are pursuing a parallel diplomatic channel, but "it’s not clear… what they're willing to barter, if anything." (08:21)
• Ukraine:
  • Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion.
  • Trump frustrated by the lack of diplomatic resolution; "distancing himself from that conflict" and American commitment to arms shipments is uncertain (09:08).
  • "He seems to, frankly, on the flip side, be tiring of the back and forth from it." (Josh Wingrove, 09:52)

3. The "Affordability" Question and Economic Messaging

• Trump’s Narrative: Claims he has "won" on affordability—cost of living and inflation tackled (11:46).
  • Quote:

    "What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability? Because I've won. I've won affordability."
    —Donald Trump, Rome, GA speech (11:46)

• Political Reality:
  • "He’s called affordability a hoax... he thinks Democrats are ginning it up as an issue beyond what voters feel." (Josh Wingrove, 11:59)
  • Economic anxiety persists among voters, including Republicans; Trump is trying to "diffuse the issue" and shift blame to Biden.
  • Similarities noted between Trump's approach and that of the Biden administration facing voter frustration over prices.

4. High-Stakes Midterm Elections

• Republican Majority at Risk:
  • Trump is "really anxious to hold the House because he thinks he's going to get impeached if they don't." (Josh Wingrove, 03:19)
  • Democrats gain seats in Texas and Louisiana special elections, causing GOP nervousness (13:58).
• Trump’s Approach to Supporting Candidates:
  • Demands loyalty, especially on tariffs; willing to back primary challenges against sitting Republicans not sufficiently aligned.
  • "Trump getting involved has a two-pronged effect, activating both his biggest supporters and those people that… are tiring of him." (Josh Wingrove, 14:52)

5. What’s Next? Priorities and Fractures in the Trump Agenda

• Stalled Agenda, Internal GOP Feuds:
  • With half of the conservative think-tank Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025" agenda enacted, new infighting emerges—particularly over the judiciary and figures like Leonard Leo (16:06).
  • "It’s difficult to continue enacting the agenda if the feuds within your movement are starting to rise." (Josh Wingrove, 16:23)
• Shift to Executive Action and Foreign Deals:
  • Expect efforts to advance tariffs unilaterally and pursue international agreements—especially with an upcoming China visit.
  • Trump is forced to "use the tools you have" as the administration encounters "crises as they come up." (Josh Wingrove, 17:19)
• Succession Looms:
  • "The purity test stuff and what he does with the money is a big factor... as they begin to move to the question of who will be our flag bearer in 2028." (Josh Wingrove, 17:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariffs SCOTUS Ruling:

  "The court ruling is going to hang over all of this… his entire philosophy, economic growth philosophy, is built on tariffs."
  —Josh Wingrove (05:33)

• On Iran:

  "Now, this is one of the really ongoing tensions in the MAGA movement about whether foreign interventions like this are worth it."
  —Josh Wingrove (07:21)

• On Affordability:

  "He is trying to sort of argue his way out of the box a little bit on it... but we've just seen so much evidence that voters, including Republican voters, continue to be pretty upset about this."
  —Josh Wingrove (12:19)

• On Trump’s Motivations for the Midterms:

  "He thinks he's going to get impeached if they don't [hold the House]. And so that's why the stakes… are pretty high for him personally and politically in this one."
  —Josh Wingrove (03:21)

• On the Republican Party’s Future:

  "The purity test stuff and what he does with the money is a big factor hanging over the entire Republican Party…"
  —Josh Wingrove (17:48)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:08] — Trump’s reaction to the Supreme Court tariff ruling
• [03:19] — Stakes for Trump and Republicans in midterms
• [04:23] — How the Supreme Court ruling reset Trump’s State of the Union focus
• [06:53] — Trump’s military and diplomatic strategy toward Iran
• [09:08] — Ukraine war: American and European anxieties
• [11:46] — Trump’s "I’ve won affordability" speech
• [13:58] — Midterm election challenges and Trump’s strategy for backing candidates
• [16:06] — GOP infighting and the future of the "Project 2025" agenda
• [17:19] — Executive actions, foreign policy shifts, and 2028 Republican succession

Tone and Language

The episode maintains Bloomberg's signature analytical and business-centric tone, blending sharp data-driven insights with clear explanations of political complexities. Both Gura and Wingrove are direct but measured, often contextualizing Trump’s rhetoric with on-the-ground political realities and drawing out the uncertainty swirling around key policy areas.

This summary covers all major topics and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive guide for listeners and non-listeners alike.