A Guide to the State of Trump and the Union

Summary

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Big Take — "A Guide to the State of Trump and the Union"

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts)
Host: David Gura
Guest: Josh Wingrove (Bloomberg White House Reporter)
Date: February 24, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode examines President Donald Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address—his first in his second term—against a backdrop of political volatility, economic uncertainty, and simmering global tensions. Bloomberg’s David Gura and White House reporter Josh Wingrove break down the key policy battles Trump faces, including the fallout from a major Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his tariff policy, the administration's handling of foreign threats (notably Iran and Ukraine), concerns over domestic affordability, and the stakes of the looming midterm elections. The discussion explores what Trump is likely to emphasize, how he manages political and policy turbulence, and the potential impact on the Republican Party.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Supreme Court Strikes Down Major Tariff Policy

• Context: Days before the State of the Union, the Supreme Court rules 6-3 against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs (02:08, 04:23).
• Trump's Reaction: Visibly angered, Trump publicly rebukes certain members of the court for "not having the courage to do what's right for our country."
  • Quote:

    "I'm ashamed of certain members of the court, absolutely ashamed for not having the courage to do what's right for our country."
    —Donald Trump (02:08)

• Policy Fallout:
  • Massive uncertainty for U.S. trade deals; EU pauses deal implementation, Canada and Mexico reconsider USMCA.
  • "Trump has been pressuring the court for months against this decision... he's sort of been tweeting through it... riffing, saying, wow, the court actually gave me even more power than they intended." (Josh Wingrove, 04:31)
• Implication for Speech: Expect Trump to "riff and probably rage" about tariffs, especially when going off-script.
  • "That's the real X factor... how much will he deviate from the prepared text?" (Josh Wingrove, 06:27)

2. Foreign Policy Flashpoints: Iran & Ukraine

• Iran:
  • Trump is openly weighing a significant U.S. intervention against Iran, following mixed messaging after recent strikes (06:53).
  • "He’s leaving a lot of options on the table, including the direct American military involvement in Iran." (Josh Wingrove, 07:54)
  • Internal MAGA debate between isolationists and interventionists persists.
  • Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are pursuing a parallel diplomatic channel, but "it’s not clear… what they're willing to barter, if anything." (08:21)
• Ukraine:
  • Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion.
  • Trump frustrated by the lack of diplomatic resolution; "distancing himself from that conflict" and American commitment to arms shipments is uncertain (09:08).
  • "He seems to, frankly, on the flip side, be tiring of the back and forth from it." (Josh Wingrove, 09:52)

3. The "Affordability" Question and Economic Messaging

• Trump’s Narrative: Claims he has "won" on affordability—cost of living and inflation tackled (11:46).
  • Quote:

    "What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability? Because I've won. I've won affordability."
    —Donald Trump, Rome, GA speech (11:46)

• Political Reality:
  • "He’s called affordability a hoax... he thinks Democrats are ginning it up as an issue beyond what voters feel." (Josh Wingrove, 11:59)
  • Economic anxiety persists among voters, including Republicans; Trump is trying to "diffuse the issue" and shift blame to Biden.
  • Similarities noted between Trump's approach and that of the Biden administration facing voter frustration over prices.

4. High-Stakes Midterm Elections

• Republican Majority at Risk:
  • Trump is "really anxious to hold the House because he thinks he's going to get impeached if they don't." (Josh Wingrove, 03:19)
  • Democrats gain seats in Texas and Louisiana special elections, causing GOP nervousness (13:58).
• Trump’s Approach to Supporting Candidates:
  • Demands loyalty, especially on tariffs; willing to back primary challenges against sitting Republicans not sufficiently aligned.
  • "Trump getting involved has a two-pronged effect, activating both his biggest supporters and those people that… are tiring of him." (Josh Wingrove, 14:52)

5. What’s Next? Priorities and Fractures in the Trump Agenda

• Stalled Agenda, Internal GOP Feuds:
  • With half of the conservative think-tank Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025" agenda enacted, new infighting emerges—particularly over the judiciary and figures like Leonard Leo (16:06).
  • "It’s difficult to continue enacting the agenda if the feuds within your movement are starting to rise." (Josh Wingrove, 16:23)
• Shift to Executive Action and Foreign Deals:
  • Expect efforts to advance tariffs unilaterally and pursue international agreements—especially with an upcoming China visit.
  • Trump is forced to "use the tools you have" as the administration encounters "crises as they come up." (Josh Wingrove, 17:19)
• Succession Looms:
  • "The purity test stuff and what he does with the money is a big factor... as they begin to move to the question of who will be our flag bearer in 2028." (Josh Wingrove, 17:48)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariffs SCOTUS Ruling:

  "The court ruling is going to hang over all of this… his entire philosophy, economic growth philosophy, is built on tariffs."
  —Josh Wingrove (05:33)

• On Iran:

  "Now, this is one of the really ongoing tensions in the MAGA movement about whether foreign interventions like this are worth it."
  —Josh Wingrove (07:21)

• On Affordability:

  "He is trying to sort of argue his way out of the box a little bit on it... but we've just seen so much evidence that voters, including Republican voters, continue to be pretty upset about this."
  —Josh Wingrove (12:19)

• On Trump’s Motivations for the Midterms:

  "He thinks he's going to get impeached if they don't [hold the House]. And so that's why the stakes… are pretty high for him personally and politically in this one."
  —Josh Wingrove (03:21)

• On the Republican Party’s Future:

  "The purity test stuff and what he does with the money is a big factor hanging over the entire Republican Party…"
  —Josh Wingrove (17:48)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:08] — Trump’s reaction to the Supreme Court tariff ruling
• [03:19] — Stakes for Trump and Republicans in midterms
• [04:23] — How the Supreme Court ruling reset Trump’s State of the Union focus
• [06:53] — Trump’s military and diplomatic strategy toward Iran
• [09:08] — Ukraine war: American and European anxieties
• [11:46] — Trump’s "I’ve won affordability" speech
• [13:58] — Midterm election challenges and Trump’s strategy for backing candidates
• [16:06] — GOP infighting and the future of the "Project 2025" agenda
• [17:19] — Executive actions, foreign policy shifts, and 2028 Republican succession

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Tone and Language

The episode maintains Bloomberg's signature analytical and business-centric tone, blending sharp data-driven insights with clear explanations of political complexities. Both Gura and Wingrove are direct but measured, often contextualizing Trump’s rhetoric with on-the-ground political realities and drawing out the uncertainty swirling around key policy areas.

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This summary covers all major topics and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive guide for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Transcript

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[David Gura]

Tonight, President Donald Trump will deliver his first State of the Union of his second term to a joint session of Congress. Members of the Supreme Court are also usually in the audience, and that will give President Trump an opportunity to speak to them directly. Just days after the high court decided to strike down a big part of the president's tariff policy, the Supreme Court's

[Donald Trump]

ruling on tariffs is deeply disappointing, and I'm ashamed of certain members of the court, absolutely ashamed for not having the courage to do what's right for our country.

[David Gura]

That was Trump reacting to the ruling on Friday. His response has evolved since then. Most recently, he's pledged sweeping global tariffs of 15% using other legal justifications. And as the fallout from the Supreme Court decision spreads, Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Wingrove tells me it's expected to dominate Trump's speech.

[Josh Wingrove]

I think we're going to hear a lot about it. I think that's, that's what I'll start with. I think you will talk, no doubt about the investment pledges that have come in in his term that he says are driving this golden age. Sort of the flip side of that is that some of those are tied to trade deals and now have a lot of uncertainty around them.

[David Gura]

But of course, tariffs are not the only issue Trump is likely to address. Josh says there's a lot on Americans

[Josh Wingrove]

minds voters want right now, action on prices, immigration in particular. After the killing of Alex Preddy and Renee Goode in Minneapolis.

[David Gura]

Josh says those are subjects Trump may steer away from.

[Josh Wingrove]

Trump likes to tell habitually, he likes to tell positive stories, does not like to admit defeat, you know, in any case. But there are warning signs flashing heading into the midterm cycle here. Trump himself is really anxious to hold the House because he thinks he's going to get impeached if they don't. And so that's why the stakes, I think, are pretty high for him personally and politically in this one. David guy.

[David Gura]

I'm David Gura and this is the big take from Bloomberg News today on the show, how President Trump is expected to use this State of the Union to rally his party and what issues he's likely to address amid lower approval numbers and tensions in the US and around the world. President Trump was workshopping his State of the Union last week in a speech he delivered at a steel plant in Rome, Georgia.

[Donald Trump]

We had record inflation. You don't have it anymore. I'm going to make a State of the Union address on Tuesday. I hope you're going to watch and we're going to be talking about it.

[David Gura]

But Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove says the focus of the State of the Union changed after the Supreme Court struck down many of the tariffs President Trump had put in place.

[Josh Wingrove]

Trump has been pressuring the court for months against this decision. And he's sort of been tweeting through it, as we all do, you know, from time to time in the days since then, sort of riffing, saying, wow, the court actually gave me even more power than they intended and other countries better not renege on their trade deals because of this or I'll go even bigger. But it's been very chaotic. What that court ruling did was strike down really the key leg of the stool of Trump's tariff policy, the reciprocal tariffs on basically every nation on earth, or at least many, many, many of them, as well as the fentanyl related tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. And Trump is trying to sort of rebuild Humpty Dumpty through a different sort of series of authorities that will take. But it's been very ad hoc. It's been unclear. Over the weekend, he announced that he would increase a tariff from a level set not even 24 hours before, for instance. I think we will hear him riff and probably rage about this ruling, which he thinks really undercuts his authority. Of course, it is a 6:3 conservative Supreme Court that ruled 6:3 against his interpretation of that. So he's wrong in their eyes. But I think the question is, what is the fallout of this? The European Union, for instance, has moved to pause implementation of the trade deal as this tariff chaos swirls. If you're the Canadians and Mexicans waiting to renegotiate the USMCA trade deal, which is an actual trade deal on the books in law, this probably changes your calculus on it. If you are the Koreans and Japanese who are on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars in financing and pledges, I think you are looking at this landscape, wondering whether you should change tack a little bit or more than a little bit. I think Trump's entire philosophy, economic growth philosophy, is built on tariffs, both the leverage he gets from and negotiations and the domestic investment he believes that they drive. And so the court ruling is going to hang over all of this. So we will hear about it. Remember, Trump, of course, often goes heavily off script in speeches. And so that is the real X factor heading into this evening is how much will he deviate from the prepared text. You can almost always tell whether he's doing it or not. And I think when he goes off script, that's when we're going to hear a lot about the tariffs.

[David Gura]

So that'll be a big part of this, I imagine foreign policy will be as well. And we have President Trump at this moment deciding whether or not to attack Iran. What do we know at this point about what he's considering, what the president's weighing?

[Josh Wingrove]

Trump has acknowledged that he's considering a direct intervention beyond where they've been before. In other words, more than just a one and done bombing run. But it's hard to take what they're saying at face value because since the previous strike, which of course Trump insisted several different ways, completely decimated the Iranian nuclear capability, of course, there are questions about whether that was actually the case and whether Iran has the ability to restart things in a more quick way than President Trump had stated after the last attack. Now, this is one of the really ongoing tensions in the MAGA movement about whether foreign interventions like this are worth it. There is definitely an isolationist camp that does not want to get bogged down in foreign conflicts. And Trump, on the flip side, often sort of quick in and out type operations, as we, we of course saw with Iran, but we saw with Venezuela as well. Now, Trump likes to sort of leave the dagger hanging a little bit in these negotiations all the time. So it's difficult to read one way or another. But right now he's leaving a lot of options on the table, including the direct American military involvement in Iran.

[David Gura]

So that dagger is hanging, as you say. And then you've got Steve Witkoff, the president's close advisor, his son in law, Jared Kushner, pursuing this diplomatic track as well. Is it clear to you what the goals are on that track, what those two men are trying to find an agreement on, perhaps to forestall this military action?

[Josh Wingrove]

I think Trump wants a deal of some kind. Beyond that, it's not clear to me what they're willing to barter, if anything, and what they're demanding, if anything. They've stopped short of calling for outright regime change, or at least Trump has. And by the way, that is a backdrop to the tariff discussion. It's a backdrop to, to foreign affairs. Trump thinks that he benefits from this chaos and from this opaque sort of will he or won't he uncertainty that hangs over so much of his agenda.

[David Gura]

This speech comes on the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And I'm curious what the White House has indicated the president might say about that. Of course, that's another diplomatic track that Steve Wyckoff is on right now, trying to find some resolution to that conflict.

[Josh Wingrove]

Yeah, Trump has been frustrated by the lack of a resolution there and occasionally sort of let slip that he seems frustrated with Putin himself. Of course, Putin continues to dangle the prospect, or at least to Trump, dangle the prospect of some kind of deal, while continuing and even ramping up attacks both on the lines of battle in Ukraine, but also missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, well behind those lines. And so I think right now Trump has been distancing himself from that conflict and distancing his political sort of stake from whether there'll be a deal or won't be a deal. And that's a big question mark and concern for the Europeans broadly and Ukraine specifically, as to whether American arms shipments will continue, at what level, at what price, whether American pressure on Russia will continue and with what fervor. And so if we hear mention of it, I don't think we're going to hear a fresh call. I've been wrong before, David. I expect to be wrong. Maybe. But there's no sign that he's preparing a fresh push. He seems to, frankly, on the flip side, be tiring of the back and forth from it. Not walking away entirely from trying to get a deal, but more and more disinterested he seems in the to and fro.

[David Gura]

Coming up, how Trump is expected to address affordability, the latest economic data and the midterm elections.

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[David Gura]

Josh, going back to that speech the president gave in in Rome, Georgia, he declared, I've won affordability.

[Donald Trump]

What word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability? Because I've won. I've won affordability.

[David Gura]

Is this the White House position now when it comes to that issue of cost of living, of affordability?

[Josh Wingrove]

Yeah. So he's called affordability a hoax in the past. And what he means by that is he thinks Democrats are ginning it up as an issue beyond what voters feel. I think there's a lot of evidence that the truth is different and that voters continue to feel frustrated by not only ongoing price increases, but a lack of disinflation and a decrease in prices that Trump had sort of teased in particular on things like energy costs. And so we will see him sort of take the wins. Gasoline prices expect that to be discussed heavily throughout this evening's speech. But I think, you know, he has been trying to diffuse the issue that he, of course, rode pretty heavily in the 2024 campaign of voter outrage over price levels that continues to simmer poll after poll shows it. And so I think that he is trying to sort of argue his way out of the box a little bit on it. But I think we've just seen so much evidence that voters, including Republican voters, continue to be pretty upset about this. And it of course is difficult for the government to do much about it. It's been a bit of deja vu for the White House press corps watching Trump go after like the meat backing conglomerates for instance, because that is exactly what Joe Biden tried to do when he was in exactly the same position in his term and facing exactly the same voter pressure of people being upset about it. So I expect Trump to of course sweep a lot of that under the Biden rug, say this is a Biden problem, we're fixing it and just kind of go forward and pray basically that the CPI prints continue to be not that bad or even good, dare I say, and that this will fade from voters minds come November. But the politics hanging over this are funny because Trump is really pushing to cling to a majority because he thinks he'll get impeached if he doesn't. But he's not really using the majority he has right now for much, in part because it's so small, in part because we're starting to see Republican blowback on things like tariffs. And so he's in a pickle.

[David Gura]

Josh, let me ask you a bit more about how he's approaching these midterms. So we've seen Democrats win some seats in some key special elections in Texas and Louisiana. I imagine those losses are leading to some nervousness among Republicans. What do we know about how President Trump plans to support Republican candidates in these midterms, the kinds of candidates he's setting out to support?

[Josh Wingrove]

He said he's going to travel, but he hasn't really followed through on it so much. And of course there are some races where the party would love for him to get involved. Texas jumps to mind on that, where there's a pretty duke it out primary going on for the Senate race there that could help determine whether that seat is more in play than it otherwise might be. And so he continues to sort of demand purity tests of Republican candidates. And if he doesn't get what he wants, such as votes on tariffs, he is very comfortable supporting a primary against a sitting lawmaker, even if it raises the chance the Democrats flip that seat. And so what is he going to do? Well, he thinks that he's going to put himself on the ballot. That is what we've heard. Suzy Wiles and others signal publicly that Trump getting involved will help make sure the Trump voters who tend to only go to the polls for Trump bother to in a midterm when he himself is not necessarily on the ballot. But Trump getting involved, of course, has a two pronged effect, activating both his biggest supporters and those people that either don't like him, are retiring of him. And so whether this all works, we'll see. But you can start to see some states lining up on the Senate side where things to get thorny in a hurry. And you can start seeing how Democrats are feeling pretty confident when they just need a handful of seats to flip and they retake the majority in the House.

[David Gura]

Josh, we've talked about economic policy and foreign policy. You said one goal here for the president is not to be impeached if he loses the majorities in the House and Senate. Beyond that, what are the president's other priorities here at this point in his second term? I look at that Project 2025 document from the Heritage foundation, what it's called for, and it seems like the president's done roughly half of what's in there. Do we have a good sense of what's next on his policy agenda?

[Josh Wingrove]

I think the sense is fading because new battles are cropping up. I'm thinking here in particular of his recent criticism of Leonard Leo and the broad sort of Republican judicial establishment that has been so core to his confirmation of three Supreme Court justices. He made a comment in the last week or so that sort of acknowledged that he doesn't expect more of that, by the way, that neither Alito nor Thomas will retire in his term. You know, it's difficult to continue enacting the agenda if the feuds within your movement are starting to rise and Trump going to battle with like the hardcore conservative legal establishment. And it's not clear necessarily that he will fully do that. But you know, that is that is sort of a warning sign that unity might be fading covering him. It does seem like the sort of pre cooked meals that were stacked in the freezer for day one are pretty empty now. They're sort of dealing with crises as they come up. So I think he will continue to try to do tariffs by executive action. He will continue to try to codify things without Congress and we'll see him go abroad and try to strike deals. Chiefly, of course, with that trip to China in April where, you know, a lot of eyes will be on whether the Chinese and Americans will extend the current sort of rolling deal that they have right now. In particular because the Supreme Court just struck down a pretty big part of Trump's tariffs on China. And so, you know, he'll do what American presidents do when they are approaching lame duck status, which is use the tools you have. But the purity test stuff and what he does with the money is a big factor hanging over the entire Republican Party in particular as they begin to move to the question of who will be our flag bearer in 2028 for the Republican Party.

[David Gura]

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Each week we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens.

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Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie or you still need to wrap your head around the Diddy verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step.

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And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes.

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