After Months of Succession Planning, Who’s Leading Iran?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Big Take – "After Months of Succession Planning, Who’s Leading Iran?"

Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Sarah Holder, Bloomberg News
Guest: Golnar Motavalli (Bloomberg Middle East Correspondent)

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Episode Overview

This episode of the "Big Take" explores the rapidly evolving crisis in Iran following the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after US and Israeli attacks, and the broader regional escalation. The discussion focuses on Iran's succession planning, the implications for the country's leadership, the oil markets, and the uncertain US endgame in the conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The US & Israeli Attacks and Regional Escalation

• Large-scale US military operations have begun in Iran following strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
• The military and political aftermath involves significant casualties: six US troops and hundreds of Iranians reportedly killed (02:36).
• Iranian regime and proxies have responded with attacks in the Persian Gulf and threats to oil shipping, e.g., vows to halt oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz (03:21).
• Oil and gas prices surge: Brent crude spikes 13% to over $82 per barrel, European gas prices up 50% (03:21).

Memorable Quote:

"An advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard commander announced on state television that they would not let any oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz and would set fire to any ship attempting to pass."
— Sarah Holder (03:21)

2. Iran’s Succession Preparations

• After the June "12-day war," Iran anticipated further attacks and rigorously prepared succession plans at multiple levels (04:46).
• New leadership structures:
  • Interim Security Council: Three senior leaders temporarily manage Supreme Leader functions. One is a senior cleric and rumored potential permanent successor.
  • Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, now has an amplified role.
  • Elected President Massoud Pezeshkian has also gained prominence.

Insight:

"If there's one strike that gets rid of one echelon, then, you know, there'll be someone underneath it to take over. That's going to be increasingly challenging..."
— Golnar Motavalli (05:31)

3. The Nature of Internal Opposition & Regime Control

• Decades of repression have neutralized organized domestic opposition; anyone advocating for civil rights faces prosecution or imprisonment (08:10).
• Recent and historical protest cycles have been met with increased violence and executions.
• Despite regime unpopularity, the system's coercive apparatus remains strong and loyal elements persist, making grassroots regime change unlikely in the near term.

Memorable Quote:

"...Anyone who does speak up for the rights of women, just basic human rights, civil liberties, they face prosecution and most of them are in jail."
— Golnar Motavalli (08:10)

4. US Endgame and the Logic of Intervention

• The US rationale for intervention wavers between supporting Iranian protesters and halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions (13:50).
• Trump and allies cite preventing nuclear weaponization as a core motive, echoing messaging from the UK (Keir Starmer).
• Skepticism persists as Iran has long denied pursuing nuclear arms, while distrust from Israel and the US remains.

Memorable Quote:

"The problem is, is that there is no trust between them and between countries like Israel, who have been threatened by Iran for years and years and years..."
— Golnar Motavalli (15:45)

• Some analysts warn US actions could push Iran toward seeking nuclear weapons.

5. Impact on Oil Markets and OPEC Response

• Oil prices have risen but not as sharply as feared, attributed to:
  • The market's belief that the conflict cannot continue indefinitely
  • Reluctance among Gulf states to be drawn in (16:51)
• Gulf oil producers (notably Saudi Arabia) seek to moderate instability; OPEC is ramping up production instead of cutting, to try to balance soaring prices (17:58).

Notable Quote:

"They (Gulf Arab states) don't want missiles flying around their countries and populations. And these are oil producing countries whose budgets depend on their ability to sell oil at a certain price."
— Golnar Motavalli (16:51)

6. Uncertainty Over Iran’s Future and Risks Ahead

• The interim leadership could hold, but there's no clear plan for regime change or post-conflict stabilization from the US or Israel.
• Widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure loss are cited as gravely concerning (18:32).
• Historical failures of "regime change wars" cast doubt on prospects for stability or democratic transformation.

Quote and Reflection:

"I think there's a recklessness...because it's a way of saying, we're just gonna...cut off the head of the snake and then just let people to get on with it. And I don't know what that means."
— Golnar Motavalli (18:32)

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Key Timestamps

• [02:07] – US military operations commence in Iran
• [03:21] – Iranian threats to oil shipping and impact on global energy prices
• [04:46] – Iran’s succession planning and emergency appointments
• [08:10] – Discussion on regime opposition and domestic unrest
• [13:50] – US endgame and motivations explained
• [16:51] – Economics: Oil prices, OPEC response, and Gulf state concerns
• [18:32] – Broader risks, future uncertainties, and the question of regime change

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Notable Quotes

• "If there's one strike that gets rid of one echelon, then, you know, there'll be someone underneath it to take over."
  — Golnar Motavalli (05:31)
• "Anyone who does speak up for the rights of women, just basic human rights, civil liberties, they face prosecution and most of them are in jail."
  — Golnar Motavalli (08:10)
• "They don't want missiles flying around their countries and populations."
  — Golnar Motavalli (16:51)
• "I think there's a recklessness...because it's a way of saying, we're just gonna...cut off the head of the snake and then just let people to get on with it. And I don't know what that means."
  — Golnar Motavalli (18:32)

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Tone and Flow

• The conversation is measured but urgent, reflecting the gravity and volatility of the crisis.
• Motavalli emphasizes nuance, historical context, and skepticism about both Iranian regime durability and the wisdom of foreign intervention.
• The host, Sarah Holder, steers discussion to both geopolitical and economic ramifications, maintaining clarity for a business-focused audience.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a timely, in-depth look at Iran’s political and security crisis in the wake of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, highlighting succession dynamics, the strength and limitations of internal opposition, US motives, challenges of foreign intervention, and global economic impact—especially on energy markets. The uncertain next steps in Tehran and Washington set the stage for continued instability and global economic volatility.

Transcript

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[Military Correspondent]

States military continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran.

[Sarah Holder]

The U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran have entered their third day and President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. s military operation could continue for weeks or more.

[Military Correspondent]

Whatever it takes, we will always and we have. Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.

[Sarah Holder]

The US Is now sending additional forces to the region and Trump told the New York Post that he hadn't ruled out putting US Troops on the ground. As of Monday afternoon, six US Service members and hundreds of Iranians have been killed. The attacks have set off a chain reaction across the region. The Iranian regime and its proxies launched targeted strikes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after Hezbollah fired missiles towards Israel. Israel struck Lebanon. Saudi Arabia it was reported that One of their oil refineries was targeted in one of the Iranian strikes.

[Golnar Motavalli]

We have several fronts opening up. A number of Gulf Arab countries that

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also found themselves in the firing line.

[Commercial Announcer]

We've seen Hezbollah joining the fight right now.

[Sarah Holder]

And on an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard commander announced on state television that they would not let any oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz and would set fire to any ship attempting to pass. Oil prices had already spiked off the news of the weekend attack. European gas prices surged more than 50% on Monday and Brent crude was up as much as 13% at the market open, clearing $82 a barrel. The attack on Iran and killing of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei leaves open questions about who will rule the country now, what the war could mean for global oil prices and how long the US Involvement might last.

[Military Correspondent]

Somebody said today, they said, oh well, president wants to do it really quickly. After that he'll get bored. I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this.

[Sarah Holder]

I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take from Bloomberg News today. On the show, Bloomberg's Golner Motavalli on the succession plan for the supreme leader in Iran and the efforts to keep oil prices in check amid the widening conflict across the Middle East. Bloomberg's Golnar Motavalli has been following this story since news of the US And Israel's attacks on Iran broke along with our reporters across the globe. Golnar, you've been anticipating this conflict could erupt for weeks now.

[Golnar Motavalli]

Yes, I think generally since Israel last attacked Iran in June and triggered the 12 day war, which obviously the US joined at the very end with the attacks on Iran's nuclear sites. I think there was generally a sense that the Israelis, if not the Americans, would attack Iran again. And I think it was clear that the Iranians themselves were definitely preparing for that. And my sense is that they went into these last round of nuclear talks with the Americans knowing that it was a possibility.

[Sarah Holder]

Well, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei was killed in a targeted strike over the weekend. Iran was preparing, as you said, they also had a plan for the death of the supreme leader. What do we know about it?

[Golnar Motavalli]

We've seen reports over the past couple of weeks that again, since June there has been a real serious effort to just strategize and make plans for various scenarios and eventualities. And part of that is increasing the layers of succession for different leadership roles across these different security institutions and military bodies, whether it's the IRGC Whether it's the Supreme National Security Council, whether it's the new National Defence Council that was established after the war with Israel in June. So these contingencies exist and they are a number of layers thick, according to some sort of unconfirmed reports we've seen in terms of personnel. So if there's one strike that gets rid of one echelon, then, you know, there'll be someone underneath it to take over. That's going to be increasingly challenging, because I'm guessing that there is a point at which you've gone through all the layers of seniority. Having said that, Iran's armed forces are substantial in size and there is a sizable proportion of Iran's population that is still very loyal to the regime. It's questionable whether they are the majority of. I do not think they are at all. But Iran is a country of 90 million people, and I still think there is a large number of people who are very loyal to the Islamic Republic and who are part of the governing political military apparatus that runs the country. Most of the ranking individuals who were lost over the weekend, they've been replaced. They've announced this interim Security Council that consists of of three very senior individuals, one of whom is from the Guardian Council, a very senior cleric who's also rumoured. This is completely speculative, but rumoured as someone who may also be in the running to ultimately replace the Supreme Leader. But that three member council are at the moment caretaking for decisions that would have otherwise been taken by the Supreme Leader. And they're working very closely with the head of the Supreme National Security Council, who is Ali Larajani. And the elected president, President Massoud Pezeshkian, takes on an even more prominent role than before as well.

[Sarah Holder]

Well, on Saturday, in the hours after the attack, President Trump made a statement urging the people of Iran to, quote, take over your government. How likely is it that the Iranian opposition will take power now? And what would that look like?

[Golnar Motavalli]

One of the achievements, if you want to use that word, of the regime of the Islamic Republic in the past 50 years has been to very successfully ensure that an effective opposition just cannot exist in the country. And anyone who does speak up for the rights of women, just basic human rights, civil liberties, they face prosecution and most of them are in jail. And the reformists, they've always been pushing against this kind of like, brick wall because hardliners have kind of dominated the country for so long, and hardliners are ostensibly, in very simple terms, who Khamenei has always represented. So in that sense, Internally, there's little organized opposition to speak of, but the population by and large are very opposed and have been very opposed to the Islamic Republic for some time. And much of the opposition comes from a very simple idea, which is that the regime treats its own people often appallingly. And we saw that during the protests. The latest protests that started on the 28th of December and kind of reached a sort of a peak of violence and brutality over the weekend of January 8th and 9th, where we know that thousands of people were killed. And Iranians have known at least since 2009 that Khamenei has been prepared to give orders to the security forces to kill people if it's necessary. And the more the Iranians have gone out to protest as they've become increasingly dissatisfied with the system, the harder and the more ruthless the security forces have been in dealing with them. And we have seen, especially since 2019, the numbers of not just people killed actively in protests go up, along with the numbers of protests that actually take place, but also the number of judicial executions as well that happen in the country.

[Sarah Holder]

After the break, Gulnar and I discuss what we know about the U.S. s endgame and how the war is already impacting the flow and the price price of oil.

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[Military Correspondent]

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[Sarah Holder]

US Side I want to talk about what Trump and Trump administration officials have said is the U.S. end game here. How have officials explained why the U.S. attacked and what the plan is now?

[Golnar Motavalli]

The rationale behind the US Decision to attack Iran has changed. Donald Trump's motivations for threatening Iran or threatening regime change have sort of flipped between wanting to protect the protesters, many of whom who were under arrest, were also at risk of execution, but also then using the nuclear program, Iran's nuclear program, as a pretext to threaten and to attack Iran. And one thing that's been interesting is that both Donald Trump and Keir Starmer have referred to this idea of, you know, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. American officials have been saying this repeatedly for years, and Iran has been saying repeatedly for years that we do not intend to have a nuclear weapon. Our program is for peaceful purposes only. Now, you know, obviously it's not good enough to just say that. The negotiations, the round that they were meant to have this week before the attack started on Saturday, was to provide Americans with a sense of confidence, an ironclad guarantee that Iran would not weaponize its nuclear program. And there's also been this argument that the more that you push Iran and threaten it and do various things like pile on sanctions, designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, kill someone like General Qasem Soleimani, abandon the nuclear deal that Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians on the basis that it was Barack Obama's deal and you felt that it wasn't a good deal, there's a school of thought that says doing this actually pushes Iran further toward the calculation that having a nuclear weapon is actually probably what it needs. And that is something that Lara Jani, who is now very prominent at the moment in Iran's decision making apparatus, has said in the past. Right now, Iran is a member of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, and that means that it is prohibited from trying to acquire or developing nuclear weapons, but it is also allowed to pursue a peaceful civilian nuclear program. And Iranian officials have been insisting this is what they want. The problem is, is that there is no trust between them and between countries like Israel who have been threatened by Iran for years and years and years and years and are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a country like Iran having indigenous nuclear enrichment capability.

[Sarah Holder]

So, Gulnar, I want to talk about the economic impacts of this war. Oil prices have spiked, but not to the extent that some have feared. Why is that?

[Golnar Motavalli]

I think a lot of people are, or the market at least may be taking into consideration the fact that this can't go on forever, that there's a limit to what both sides are able to maybe tolerate. There's certainly a limit to what the Gulf Arab states in the Persian Gulf can stomach. They did not want to get dragged into this war. They didn't want this. From what we know from our sources is that they tried to dissuade Donald Trump from going into this war. They were very active in trying to facilitate the negotiations and mediate between Steve Witkoff and the Iranian foreign Minister Abbas Arakchee, because they didn't want a war. They don't want missiles flying around their countries and populations. And these are oil producing countries whose budgets depend on their ability to sell oil at a certain price.

[Sarah Holder]

And OPEC has responded by saying, you know, they're going to resume oil production increases. Could that continue to moderate oil prices if this conflict continues?

[Golnar Motavalli]

Yeah, if they're not deciding to cut and they're actually deciding to even ramp up production, that will definitely have an impact on prices. It's just unclear at this stage to what extent how much of the gains that a decision like that will help to erase at this point.

[Sarah Holder]

And Golar, this is a very fast moving situation. There's questions about Iranian succession plans, about further attacks in the region, about the ripple effects on the global economy. But where do you expect this conflict to go from here? What are you watching for in the hours and days ahead?

[Golnar Motavalli]

I think the one thing that concerns me a great deal is the civilian toll, the number of civilians that are being killed right now, particularly in Iran. It's very difficult to rely on the state media in Iran to give a death toll and to kind of break down that death toll in terms of civilians. And the same with infrastructure, with the loss of infrastructure in Iran and just the basic, basic idea that there doesn't seem to be any long term planning or thinking on the American side or amongst the Israelis about what happens in Iran next. I think Pete Hegseth said today that this wasn't a regime change war, but it did change the regime. And then he said something along the lines of we'll leave it to Iranians to decide what to do. And I think there's a recklessness in that inherent in that statement because it's a way of saying we're just gonna, you know, do the attack. This phrase that often people use, cut off the head of the snake and then just let people to get on with it. And I don't know what that means, getting on with it. I'm not sure that anyone's really thought that through. And that's what worries me. I think the concept of regime change as we know it is freighted with the weight of that question and always has been. And partly the reason why it has been is because I don't think there are that many examples in history where this type of intervention has ever been successful or led to any anything good fast.

[Sarah Holder]

This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from the Big take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

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