Big Take Podcast Summary: "Can Europe Break Up With the US?"
Host: David Gura (Bloomberg)
Guest: Suzanne Lynch (Bloomberg's Brussels Bureau Chief)
Date: January 26, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines the deepening rift between Europe and the United States during President Donald Trump’s second term—focusing on the explosive political drama over Trump’s threats to annex Greenland and impose tariffs on European allies, and the resulting European debates over how to respond. Amidst shock and soul-searching, the episode explores whether Europe can and should disentangle itself from its decades-long alliance with the US, the tools at its disposal for retaliation or self-defense, and whether crisis breeds unity within the European Union.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation of US-Europe Tensions under Trump

(01:45–02:43)

• Trump’s Actions:
  President Trump’s second term has seen sharp breaks from previous diplomatic norms, including threats to annex Greenland and to impose new tariffs on European countries opposing the Greenland plan.
• European Reaction:
  The EU suspended approval of a new US-EU trade deal after these threats, prompting major uncertainty and anger within European leadership.

Notable Quote:

“I think the feeling in Europe after Donald Trump reiterated his threat to annex Greenland and to... put extra tariffs on a number of European countries over their opposition to Trump's plans on Greenland really took European leaders by surprise.”
—Suzanne Lynch (02:24)

2. Trust Broken: Europe’s Soul-Searching

(03:07–03:54)

• European leaders are questioning the reliability of the US as an ally and debating whether to take a firmer, more independent stance.
• The feeling is the US has “crossed a Rubicon”; Europe must look to its own interests in defense and economics.

Notable Quote:

“Europe feels that the United States has crossed a Rubicon here, that it cannot depend on the United States as an ally either in the defence or in the economic sphere, and that really, Europe has to look after itself.”
—Suzanne Lynch (03:38)

3. European Tools for Retaliation: The "Trade Bazooka"

(04:36–06:16)

• Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI):
  Originally designed as a countermeasure against China. Now seriously considered for use against the US.
• Mechanism:
  Allows the EU to take collective action (by majority) against foreign coercion—possibly targeting the US tech sector or access to procurement markets.

Notable Quote:

“...the Europeans feel that they really could hit America hard with this, and the US knows this.”
—Suzanne Lynch (05:00)

4. Other Retaliatory Options

(07:31–08:53)

• Traditional Tariffs:
  The EU has €93 billion worth of tariffs “ready to go” against US goods if trade threats escalate.
• Targeting Tech:
  The EU wields significant regulatory power over major US tech and social media companies, potentially giving it more leverage.

Notable Quote:

“The EU has huge regulatory oversight into tech companies, and most of the big tech and social media companies operating in Europe are American.”
—Suzanne Lynch (08:15)

5. Financial Retaliation: US Treasuries as Leverage

(08:53–10:13)

• Danish Pension Fund Incident:
  A Danish fund sold off $100 million in US Treasuries. While small in scale, it sent a signal and rattled the administration—Trump took it more seriously than his Treasury Secretary did.
• Implication:
  Raises questions about the reliability and reputation of US Treasuries if allies act collectively.

Notable Quote:

“I do think it is given some people, at least in the administration, maybe I just say Donald Trump himself, food for thought about this reality about the stock of US Treasuries...”
—Suzanne Lynch (09:21)

6. Greenland Crisis: Averting Disaster or Just Delaying It?

(10:13–14:05)

• Quick Reversal:
  Trump announces a NATO framework deal for Greenland’s future, temporarily backing down from tariffs.
• Deal Details:
  • Increased NATO presence in the Arctic
  • US missile installations and mining rights to keep China out
  • Danish government insists on Greenland’s sovereignty.
• Danish/Greenlandic Response:
  Surprised by the process; Denmark asserts that NATO cannot negotiate on its behalf.

Notable Quote:

“She welcomed the move by Mark Rutte, but she also made the point that Rutte could not negotiate on behalf of Denmark. That's not his prerogative, as she thought.”
—Suzanne Lynch (12:53)

• Lingering Distrust:
  Even as the immediate crisis is contained, faith in the US as a stable partner is shakier than ever. Europe recognizes the need for “strategic autonomy.”

Notable Quote:

“...we are no longer going to be naive, but let's try and be pragmatic about this and get this relationship back on track.”
—Suzanne Lynch (14:15)

7. Europe’s Broader Strategic Shift

(16:27–17:33)

• Beyond the US:
  The rupture with Washington is spurring calls for Europe to build new relationships, reduce dependency on both the US and China, strengthen its industrial base, reform regulation, and deepen capital markets.
• Reassessment of Alliance:
  Europe recognizes the need for greater self-reliance, especially given Trump’s open skepticism towards the EU and preference for bilateral deals.

Notable Quote:

“So it's realizing that it has been too dependent, for example, on China for critical minerals ... there has been an awakening... that the European Union needs to strengthen its industrial base, needs to pare back regulation, and needs to ensure that there's a working capital market and an investment climate...”
—Suzanne Lynch (16:38)

8. Silver Lining: Can Europe Unite in Crisis?

(17:33–18:59)

• Crisis Breeds Unity:
  European unification has historically advanced during crises (e.g., Eurozone crisis, Brexit). The US rift may be another moment that forces the EU to act in unison and reform.
• Looking Ahead:
  Expect a busy year in Brussels focusing on EU self-strengthening and “strategic autonomy.”

Notable Quote:

“...the European Union really only moves forward at a moment of crisis... this shock, this rupture that's happening now between the United States and the European Union may actually serve to generate some much needed action in this area.”
—Suzanne Lynch (17:59)

Memorable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “Shell shocked is not too much of an exaggeration.”
  — Suzanne Lynch, describing EU mood after Trump's Davos speech (02:17)
• “The crisis had been averted, that is for sure. But I think the trust has been completely broken. There's no doubt.”
  — Suzanne Lynch (14:15)
• “We are no longer going to be naive, but let's try and be pragmatic about this and get this relationship back on track.”
  — Suzanne Lynch (14:54)
• “This idea of a collection of 27 countries is not something he warms to.”
  — Suzanne Lynch, on Trump’s attitude toward the EU (16:00)

Important Timestamps

• 01:45: Introduction of Trump’s second term and upending of global norms
• 02:21: Shell-shocked European leaders after Trump’s threats
• 04:36–05:57: Explanation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument ("trade bazooka")
• 07:39: Other available EU retaliatory tools
• 08:53: Significance of the Danish pension fund's Treasury sale
• 10:13: Discussion of the new NATO framework deal on Greenland
• 12:53: Danish response to the Greenland negotiations
• 14:15: Aftermath: “crisis averted” but trust lost
• 16:38: Broader EU strategic recalibration
• 17:59: Historic EU tendency to unify under pressure

Conclusion

This episode highlights a major shift in transatlantic relations, illustrating how President Trump’s brash foreign policy and contentious proposals have led European leaders to question longstanding assumptions about US reliability. As Europe weighs powerful tools for retaliation—and the possibility of forging a more independent path—the episode leaves listeners with the prospect that, as so many times in its history, the EU may emerge from this crisis more unified and self-reliant than before.