Big Take Podcast Summary

Episode: Can the US and Iran Make a Deal?
Date: February 9, 2026
Host: David Gura (Bloomberg)
Guest: Golnar Motavalli, Bloomberg Correspondent

Overview

This episode delves into the renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran as they return to the negotiating table after months of heightened tensions and hostilities, including US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and widespread unrest within Iran. The discussion unpacks the difficult geopolitical context: Iran’s internal crisis, the roles of international players like Israel and Gulf States, the chief goals of both Washington and Tehran, and what’s at stake if talks collapse—including the risk of wider regional conflict. The episode provides both a granular look at the current moment and a broader perspective on the prospects for change within Iran.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context and Recent Developments

• Indirect Talks Resume: The US and Iran have begun indirect talks via Oman after a months-long hiatus. Both sides described the initial conversations as “a good start,” but fundamental disagreements remain. (00:09–00:42, 04:18)
• Iran’s Precarious Position: Motavalli emphasizes that Iran is negotiating from a weakened stance due to economic turmoil, internal protests, and regional setbacks for its allies (Hamas and Hezbollah). (01:24–01:42, 03:25–03:55)
• Violent Crackdown: Over the weekend, Iran ramped up its crackdown on dissidents—arresting activists and, according to human rights groups, having killed nearly 6,500 protesters so far. (02:01)
• Pressure on the Regime: Motavalli notes, “The Islamic Republic … has never been in a situation as challenging and precarious as this” since its founding in 1979. This provides an incentive for the regime to seek an “off ramp.” (02:26)
• International Attention: Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is due to meet with Trump, with Israel remaining wary of any US-Iran deal that does not directly involve them, further complicating diplomacy. (01:10, 05:12)

2. Inside the Negotiations

• How Indirect?: Talks are mediated by Oman, with Motavalli describing a literal “relay” as messages are passed back and forth between rooms rather than direct contact—a sign of deep mistrust. (04:18)
• Regional Watchers: Gulf states, though wary of the Iranian regime, fear instability or war more and closely monitor US actions, hoping to avoid escalation. (07:58)
• Israel’s Role: Concerns are raised that if Israel feels excluded or threatened by US-Iran talks, Netanyahu could “preemptively strike Iran again,” raising fears of escalation. (05:12)

3. Each Side’s Goals

• Iran’s Objectives:
  • Primary: Sanctions relief, vital to address economic crisis and stave off further unrest.
  • Secondary: Halt to US military threats and protection of national interest.
  • Motavalli: “If they want to stave off another eruption of massive unrest … the only way is … sanctions relief.” (06:44)
• US Objectives:
  • Main: End to Iran’s nuclear program, curtailment of missile development, and a halt to Iranian support for regional militias.
  • Broader: Some in the Trump administration openly aim for “regime change.”
  • Motavalli notes, “There are a lot of people in the Trump administration who … want regime change, and they have wanted it for a long time.” (07:58–08:12)

4. The Shadow of War

• Military Threats: President Trump warns of “very steep” consequences if diplomacy fails. Both sides are posturing, but regional partners fear conflict most. (09:12)
• Analogy to Venezuela: US military intervention is discussed, drawing parallels to past US actions elsewhere.
• Potential for Full-scale Warfare:
  • Motavalli: “The Iranians … have made that very clear, that ‘we will throw whatever we have at you and your allies and your assets in the region if you strike us.’” (10:31)
  • Supreme Leader warns of “a regional war” if attacked. (11:23)
• Vulnerability of US Allies: During a recent conflict, Iran retaliated against a US base in Qatar, worrying Gulf States who fear being caught in crossfire. (09:55–10:31)

5. Energy Markets and Economic Leverage

• Strait of Hormuz: Analysts consider whether Iran could block this crucial chokepoint as leverage; even threats could spike global oil prices—an outcome no one, especially Trump facing midterms, desires. (12:08–12:17)
• Motavalli: “I think that would be very worrying … even any mention by a senior Iranian official saying we will block the Strait of Hormuz … [is] more likely to drive prices up. And I think that’s what Trump wants to avoid as well.” (12:17)

6. Prospects for Regime Change

• Public Sentiment in Iran:
  • Motavalli paints a grim picture of widespread hopelessness and alienation from the ruling clergy.
  • “The most overriding sense I have is one of complete hopelessness … And I think that can be quite dangerous for a country and for its leadership.” (13:35)
  • The protests signal that “the unrest is going to come back at some point unless there’s a credible answer and a solution to the fact that a huge number of people in Iran … feels completely adrift from its leadership.” (15:13)
• Limits of Sanctions Relief: Motavalli describes sanctions alleviation as “a sticking plaster” for Iran’s systemic problems, suggesting deeper reforms are necessary. (14:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Sentiment:

  • Golnar Motavalli (01:42, 13:35):

    “The reality is, is that a large number of Iranians want to see change and they have been desperately making that point and making that case and risking their lives for that and giving their lives in large numbers.”

    “The most overriding sense I have is one of complete hopelessness … People talk of feeling depressed and again, this word hopelessness. And I think that’s quite concerning.”

• On Regime’s Weakness:

  • Golnar Motavalli (02:26):

    “The Islamic Republic, if you look over the past nearly 50 years … has never been in a situation as challenging and precarious as this.”

• On Gulf State Anxiety:

  • Golnar Motavalli (07:58):

    “They don’t want a war, they don’t want anything that’s going to escalate tensions. That’s going to be destabilizing.”

• On Strategic Calculus:

  • Golnar Motavalli (11:27):

    “They are saying that because they want to change the strategic calculation on behalf of the Americans and even the Israelis.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US & Iran Resume Indirect Talks – 00:09–00:42
• Iran’s Domestic Crisis & Protests – 01:24–02:01, 03:25–03:55
• Israel’s Concerns, Netanyahu’s Role – 05:12–06:23
• Each Side’s Negotiating Goals – 06:44–08:12
• Military Threats and Regional Anxiety – 09:12–11:27
• Potential Oil Market Leverage – 12:08–12:17
• Iranian Public Sentiment & Prospects for Change – 13:35–15:13

Tone & Overall Takeaway

The conversation is sobering and analytical, driven by Motavalli’s deep expertise. The tone is urgent yet measured, conveying both the fragility of the regime and the immense risks of escalation for the region and beyond. The episode makes clear that while the return to diplomatic talks offers a narrow path away from conflict, fundamental issues within Iran and the unresolved interests of outside actors mean that breakthroughs are far from certain.