How the Longest Government Shutdown Is Impacting the Economy

Summary

Podcast Summary: Big Take – “How the Longest Government Shutdown Is Impacting the Economy”

Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Sarah Holder (Bloomberg)
Guests: Megan Scully (Bloomberg Congress Editor), Gregory Cordy (Bloomberg White House Reporter)

---

Overview

This episode of Big Take examines the immediate and long-term repercussions of the longest government shutdown in US history, which has extended into its 37th day. The discussion focuses on who is most affected, the ripple effects on the economy, and prospects for resolution. The episode dives deep into the food assistance crisis, air travel delays, stalled government functions, political stalemate, and uncertainty about what happens next—even after a deal is reached.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Shutdown’s Immediate Impacts

• Food Insecurity Escalates

  • The federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly “food stamps”) has nearly exhausted its funds, affecting tens of millions ([03:29], [04:01]).
  • "As we get into the second month of the shutdown, the benefits well is running dry." — Gregory Cordy ([03:42])
  • Uncertainty about November SNAP funding prompted legal battles, with courts intervening to require the administration to find funds ([04:52]).

• Federal Worker Strain

  • Hundreds of thousands are furloughed or working without pay ([00:46], [05:46]).
  • With no pay, workers are receiving letters from agencies to show landlords or banks, but “Of course, that letter has no legal bearing...it’s essentially an IOU from the federal government.” — Gregory Cordy ([05:46])

• Rising Air Travel Chaos

  • Staffing shortages among air traffic controllers and TSA agents lead to delays and ground stops, with absenteeism increasing as the shutdown wears on ([07:02], [07:34]).
  • “Just last week… the air traffic controllers at Reagan National Airport...did not show up to work, and they had to do a ground stop…” — Megan Scully ([07:02])

Political Dynamics & Stalemate

• Core Disagreement: Affordable Care Act Subsidies

  • Democrats refuse to pass a spending bill without renewed ACA subsidies; Republicans resist, despite rising healthcare premiums and even greater public pressure post-election ([02:44], [10:53]).

• Filibuster Debate and Election Fallout

  • Trump pushes for abolishing the filibuster; Senate Republicans remain cautious ([09:59]).
  • Recent elections swung in Democrats’ favor, amplifying pressure on Congress ([10:53]).
  • Polling shows Republicans get more blame, an historic pattern in shutdown politics ([11:53]).

• Breakdown in Negotiation Culture

  • Unlike previous shutdowns, “...they're not talking to each other at all...we've gotten into a routine where Speaker Johnson has a 10 o’clock press conference. Hakeem Jeffries has one a little while later...” — Megan Scully ([13:07])

Economic Aftermath—Risks & Unknowns

• Short and Long-Term Losses

  • Traditionally, “we lose about $15 billion a week” of economic activity, but most is usually recovered ([14:33]). However, Trump’s threat not to pay furloughed workers generates unprecedented uncertainty.
  • Long-term impacts for federal workers: layoffs, departures (“take the fork and received essentially a buyout for resigning...”), and stalling of various programs ([15:45]).

• Ripple Effects: Millions at Risk

  • 42 million rely on SNAP; 24 million must decide on ACA insurance amid chaos ([16:02]).
  • “It’s a pretty big swath of the US Economy.” — Megan Scully ([16:33])

• Statistical Blind Spots

  • Government agencies are not collecting or sharing timely economic data:
    • “We’ve already missed a month’s worth of price data. We are missing employment data... The Census Bureau is almost entirely shut down.” — Gregory Cordy ([16:48])
  • Some statistics may never be recovered due to parallel cuts to statistical agencies.

Possible Paths to Resolution

• Signs of Softening in the Senate
  • Some moderate Democrats are open to a delayed vote on subsidies in exchange for reopening talks ([10:53]).
• Ongoing Uncertainty
  • Any compromise requires the Senate, House, and Trump’s agreement—a tall order ([17:43]).
  • Even ending the shutdown won’t resolve underlying budget disputes; a new shutdown is possible within months ([18:39]).
  • “...even when we get to the end of this shutdown, the clock is just starting to what might be the next shutdown...” — Megan Scully ([17:43])

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the scale and scope of impact:

  • “We are coming up against the Thanksgiving holiday...seeing flight delays...food prices have been a problem for many Americans...uncertainty about the immediate future of SNAP benefits.” — Megan Scully ([01:49])
  • “It’s a perfect storm of issues all coming together with this shutdown.” — Gregory Cordy ([02:09])

• On government worker strain:

  • “That letter has no legal bearing...it's essentially an IOU from the federal government.” — Gregory Cordy ([05:54])

• On the loss of economic measurement:

  • "Not only is this shutdown impacting basic government services, but it's also creating a huge hole in our knowledge of exactly what the state of the economy is." — Gregory Cordy ([16:48])

• On the prospects for compromise:

  • “Compromise is a dirty word in Washington these days.” — Gregory Cordy ([12:37])

• On the future:

  • “We could be going through this all over again in just a month or two.” — Megan Scully ([17:43])

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:46: Start of reporting—current status of shutdown, federal workers, food banks
• 01:27: Public impact and polling—How Americans feel the shutdown
• 02:44: Main theme introduced—focus on economic and social impact
• 04:01: Detailed explanation of SNAP funding crisis
• 05:46: Financial hardship for federal workers—evictions, foreclosures risk
• 07:02: Air travel delays caused by absentee federal workers
• 08:01: Government’s warning on worsening air travel chaos
• 09:59: Political analysis post-election—filibuster, power struggles, polling
• 11:53: Polling history—blame falls on Republicans
• 13:07: Chronic lack of negotiation in Congress
• 14:33: Economic losses and discussion of lost activity
• 16:02: Breadth of population affected—SNAP, ACA
• 16:48: Economic data blackout explained
• 17:43: Discussion on timing and likelihood of ending the shutdown
• 18:39: Possibility of future shutdowns

---

Summary Tone

The conversation remains factual but somber, with reporters offering measured analysis and recurring concern about both immediate pressures and the longer-term institutional and economic consequences. The tone reflects frustration at political gridlock and deep empathy for the millions affected.

---

Final Thoughts

The longest shutdown in US history has moved well beyond political chess—touching millions of households, throwing essential services into chaos, and casting a shadow over both immediate and future economic prospects. Even a resolution will not mark a return to normalcy, but rather, a pause before renewed budget battles. The episode underscores both the human cost and the systemic risks exacerbated by political dysfunction.

Transcript

[Tide Commercial Narrator]

Did you know Tide has been upgraded to provide an even better clean in cold water. Tide is specifically designed to fight any stain you throw at it, even in cold butter. Yep. Chocolate ice cream. Sure thing. Barbecue sauce. Tide's got you covered. You don't need to use warm water. Additionally, Tide pods let you confidently fight tough stains with new coldzyme technology. Just remember, if it's gotta be clean, it's gotta be tied at CES.

[Michael McDermott]

Michael McDermott, EVP of Samsung, spoke with Bloomberg Media Studios about what the company calls its next AI chapter, your companion to AI Living. It's a shift from AI as a feature to AI as a trusted partner in everyday life.

[Sarah Holder]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts radio news the US is now on day 37 of its longest government shutdown ever. Food banks around the country are seeing increased demand as people look to replace federal food benefits that were cut off. Tens of thousands of additional federal workers have joined hundreds of thousands already furloughed.

[Tide Commercial Narrator]

President Trump's transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, announcing the FAA will cut flight capacity by 10%, which experts say means thousands of.

[Gregory Cordy]

Flights will be canceled the longer it goes on. And we see this in the polling that the numbers creep up in terms of the number of Americans who say that this shutdown is impacting them personally.

[Sarah Holder]

Bloomberg's White House reporter Gregory Cordy.

[Gregory Cordy]

And that's because there's a lot of monthly things that the government does. If you're renewing a passport, if you rely on any kind of assistance, over time you're going to start to notice that your government's not responsive to your needs.

[Megan Scully]

Certainly we are coming up against the Thanksgiving holiday in just a few weeks.

[Sarah Holder]

Here, Bloomberg's Congress editor Megan Scully.

[Megan Scully]

And we're seeing flight delays due to, you know, ground stops because of staffing shortages, particularly among air traffic controllers. Food prices have been a problem for many Americans now for the last several years. And with the shutdown comes uncertainty about the immediate future of SNAP benefits.

[Gregory Cordy]

Every shutdown is a little different. We in Washington have gotten used to this as a symptom of our political dysfunction. And to some extent there's a script. But every shutdown, the political context is different, the timing is different. The government just does different things at different times of the year. And so, yeah, leading into the holidays and with the background of this affordability crisis, it's a perfect storm of issues all coming together with this shutdown.

[Sarah Holder]

I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take from Bloomberg today on the show. The longest government shutdown in American history. Who it's impacting most and what it means for the economy long term. The U.S. s prolonged shutdown started on Oct. 1. After negotiations over the government spending package broke down. Democrats couldn't get Republicans to agree to include subsidies for Affordable Care act healthcare plans in the bill. Without them, the average healthcare premium is expected to double. And as the weeks have dragged on, the consequences of the shutdown and the stakes of reopening have become more and more urgent.

[Gregory Cordy]

Without a federal budget to pay for a whole variety of programs, one of the casualties of that is the food assistance program.

[Sarah Holder]

That's my colleague Gregory Cordy, who covers the White House and the budget.

[Gregory Cordy]

Formerly we knew it as food stamps. Now we call it snap. And as we get into the second month of the shutdown, the benefits well is running dry. The food stamp program is funded on a month to month basis, but it costs about $8 billion, $8 or 9 to fund food stamps for a month.

[Sarah Holder]

SNAP has only been funded through October, and Bloomberg's Congress editor Megan Scully says the question of what happens to SNAP funding in November has been at the center of an ongoing legal fight.

[Megan Scully]

We've really seen Trump's priorities here. He very free with moving money to pay for military salaries, to pay for salaries for law enforcement, but he went to court to fight against moving money out of the contingency fund to pay for snap.

[Sarah Holder]

Particularly.

[Megan Scully]

The SNAP fight has been interesting given that this administration, particularly the White House Budget Office, has been extremely aggressive about asserting the power of the purse, which is really Congress's domain. But we saw with the SNAP fight for them being they really took a step back and said, no, we cannot legally move these funds until they were ordered by a federal judge to do so.

[Sarah Holder]

The federal judge ordered the Trump administration to dip into the USDA's contingency fund to cover SNAP benefits. But the Trump administration says that money isn't enough to cover all of the 42 million people who rely on the program each month. In a court filing late Wednesday night, lawyers for the Department of Justice said they could only cover two thirds of recipients benefits for November. But on Thursday, a federal judge in Rhode island issued a new order saying the Trump administration has to find a way to pay out the full amount. Food access isn't the only thing that could be disrupted by the shutdown. As government employees across the country go without pay or are furloughed, it becomes harder and harder to pay bills like rents and mortgages. Given the length of the disruption, Gregory's team has been watching for signals that evictions or foreclosures could be on the horizon.

[Gregory Cordy]

Usually it takes 60 to 90 days for an eviction to work its way through whatever local process there is from state to state. But we've seen things like federal agencies give letters to their employees that they can then take to their mortgage company or their landlord saying, please excuse this federal employee from having to pay their rent this month because we're in the middle of a shutdown. Of course, that letter has no legal bearing. Your bank or your landlord is under no legal obligation to honor. Well, it's essentially an IOU from the federal government. We're going to pay this employee when the shutdown ends, can you at least let them slide on their rent? Those are the kinds of things, as the shutdown continues, that federal employees are feeling the strain. And of course, that reverberates through the federal government as absenteeism rates go up from federal employees, many of whom are doing essential functions, but have to juggle childcare and rent and other things in their daily lives because they're not getting paid.

[Sarah Holder]

Those absentee rates can have a huge impact on one sector in air travel. When the government is shut down, workers under the Federal Aviation Administration, like air traffic controllers, have to work without pay. So do Transportation Security Administration workers, TSA agents.

[Megan Scully]

We are seeing their absentee rates begin to tick up, resulting in flight delays and ground holds at airports around the country. Just last week, when the Senate was leaving town for a long weekend, the air traffic controllers at Reagan National Airport, the airport that most senators use to leave D.C. the closest airport to downtown Washington, several air traffic controllers did not show up to work, and they had to do a ground stop, delaying traffic out of D.C. and delaying the center's ability to go home.

[Sarah Holder]

With Thanksgiving only a few weeks away, a holiday where millions of Americans fly, the prospect of snarled airports and stranded travelers and is another factor that could push Congress toward a shutdown resolution. On Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy stuck with the White House's position, blaming Democrats for the shutdown. And he warned that soon things could get even worse.

[Michael McDermott]

So if, if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays, you'll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it because we don't have air traffic control.

[Sarah Holder]

Then on Wednesday, Duffy announced that the FAA would order airlines across 40 major US airports to cut their flight capacity by 10%, set to start on Friday. Airlines have started publishing updates about possible cancellations on their websites. So with pressure mounting, what could get Congress to agree on a reopening plan? And even after the government shutdown ends, what could the lingering economic consequences be? That's after the break.

[Michael McDermott]

How do you shift AI from being a flashy feature to a trusted partner in consumers everyday lives on the ground at CES Bloomberg Media Studios? Asked Michael McDermott, EVP of Samsung. Our 2026 vision is built around an AI companion. It understands you and responds intuitively. This intelligence works quietly in the background across TVs, home appliances and mobile devices. By putting AI at the center of everything we do, we're simply improving everyday life for everyone everywhere.

[Tide Commercial Narrator]

At Charmin, we heard you shouldn't talk about going to the bathroom in public, so we decided to sing about it.

[Michael McDermott]

Charmin Ultra Strong you can use less better than the rest Shaman Ultra Strong Booty pass the clean text Salmon weave texture it's the best Study up, teach a lesson on fresh your booty pass the clean test Charmin Ultra Strong Charmin.

[Tide Commercial Narrator]

Ultra Strong with Diamond weave texture cleans better than the leading one ply brand so you can use less Enjoy the go with Charmin.

[Sarah Holder]

We're nearing the close of the 37th day of the US government shutdown. Every day it continues, Congress is under more and more pressure to come to a compromise that would end it. Tuesday's elections around the country swung in Democrats favor, which some Republicans took as a signal that the shutdown could have lasting political consequences. Trump has repeatedly called for abolishing the filibuster in the Senate, an extreme move that would allow Republicans to force through a partisan budget on a simple majority vote. But Republicans in the Senate are wary of how Democrats could leverage that in the future and don't seem to have an appetite to do it. My colleagues, Congress editor Megan Scully and White House reporter Gregory Cordy, have been at the White House and at the Capitol looking for signs of when the stalemate might thaw. Here's Meghan on the state of play.

[Megan Scully]

I think what we're seeing now is, particularly in the Senate, we are seeing some softening among Senate Democrats on the hard line that they've taken the shutdown. They have had demanded that Affordable Care act subsidies be addressed before they would vote to reopen the government. There are some moderates who are in talks with Republicans who are saying, just give us the promise of a vote down the road. Any kind of bipartisan deal has not come out yet, has not come to the floor. We're paying attention to the Senate right now because the Senate has the filibuster still in place, which we've heard President Trump certainly complain about in recent days. But that means that at least eight Senate Democrats need to sign on to this stopgap spending bill to get it through that chamber. It cannot pass as of right now on a simple majority.

[Sarah Holder]

Can you characterize the Democrats strategy versus the Republican strategy right now? Gregory, how are each side of the aisle sort of thinking about ending the shutdown?

[Gregory Cordy]

Well, I think both sides are keeping a close eye on the polling on this, which has favored Democrats. If you look at the history of the modern shutdown back through the Gingrich shutdowns of the 90s, generally voters view Republicans as the aggressors on these shutdowns, even if the shoe's on the other foot. And so the polling this time around shows maybe a slightly narrower difference between the two parties, but that voters blame Republicans more than Democrats. So Democrats have that at their backs. They also have the elections this week, which they did very well on up and down the ballot.

[Sarah Holder]

And do you think the shutdown and the chaos at the federal government level had anything to do with the those wins?

[Gregory Cordy]

President Trump certainly thinks so. He was out very early, even on election night, blaming the shutdown for what happened. But I think both sides are taking stocks, their wins and losses, and trying to see if there is a new way forward on this that will require both sides to swallow a little bit of their pride. And look, compromise is a dirty word in Washington these days. It gets harder and harder to do these deals with each successive shutdown, with each successive budget fight.

[Megan Scully]

Each shutdown is different. And aside from the length of this shutdown, what has struck me about this is the lack of negotiations. Each day in the Capitol, we've gotten into a routine where Speaker Johnson has a 10 o' clock press conference. Hakeem Jeffries has one a little while later. Chuck Schumer has one, John Thune has one. We're seeing letters being sent in the actual mail to people who work down the hall from each other. They're talking to the press, they're reiterating talking points over and over and throughout the day, but they're not talking to each other at all.

[Gregory Cordy]

There used to be, not that long ago, these gangs of senators, right, that would work across the aisle and there would be a gang of eight or a gang of six or whatever number they needed to find the middle ground to reach a compromise. And that just doesn't happen anymore.

[Sarah Holder]

On Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he's not optimistic about a quick end to the shutdown. Senate Democrats, emboldened by Tuesday's election results, spent much of the morning hunkered down in Chuck Schumer's Capitol office, weighing their own next steps. But whenever the shutdown does end, things won't go back to normal overnight.

[Gregory Cordy]

When the shutdown ends, whenever it ends, be that this week or Thanksgiving or the end of the year, or whenever the question is going to be what starts back up again, what has in what has been dormant for so long during the shutdown that we might not see it ever come back.

[Megan Scully]

So typically during a government shutdown we lose about $15 billion a week is the sort of agreed upon general estimate that is typically recovered, though, at the end of the shutdown, when all federal employees, including those who are essential and furloughed, get their back pay and they can pay their bills and they can do their Christmas shopping and all of that. Typically, not everything but most economic activity is recover covered. What's different about this one? There are a few things that are different about this one. One, Trump has threatened not to pay furloughed federal employees back, which has created a level of uncertainty among that population of people. The other one is lingering concerns about long term layoffs and what happens. So far, the layoffs have been targeted and have been relatively small. But this comes on the heels of cuts made by Elon Musk's Doge Group earlier this year by federal employees who have chosen to, quote, take the fork and received essentially a buyout for resigning their positions. It's just one more layer of complexity to this workforce.

[Gregory Cordy]

Certainly, I think what the Trump administration has already done is looked at what areas that Congress hasn't funded and said, okay, look, if Congress has determined that these aren't things that we really have to do during a shutdown, then maybe we don't have to do them ever.

[Megan Scully]

But in addition to the federal workforce, you have 42 million Americans who get SNAP benefits, who are financially constrained, more so than usual during the shutdown. And then you have another 24 million Americans who are getting notices now and have to decide whether or not to continue their Affordable Care act insurance into next year. So there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And this is not a slight small portion of the population. It's a pretty big swath of the US Economy.

[Sarah Holder]

Measuring the true economic impacts of the shutdown and its aftermath will pose its own challenge. The agencies that collect economic statistical data have also gone dark. September reports went out, but no October data has been collected or shared.

[Gregory Cordy]

We've already missed a month's worth of price data. We are missing employment data. We might be able to fill in the gaps of some of those going backwards. It's really hard to collect prices if you're not doing it in real time. The Census Bureau is almost entirely shut down. So not only is this shutdown impacting basic government services, but it's also creating a huge hole in our knowledge of exactly what the state of the economy is. And many of these statistics will take years to sort of recover and find its new baseline. And along with the Trump administration's cuts to statistical agencies, again, some of those statistics that we take for granted here at Bloomberg may never come back.

[Sarah Holder]

I pose the hardest question to Meghan. She's covered Congress for years, so I asked her when she thinks the shutdown might end.

[Megan Scully]

I think we are starting to see some early shoots of compromise that could bring an end to this shutdown by the middle of next week. That will require not just a deal in the Senate, but Mike Johnson agreeing to whatever the Senate decides and bringing those 435 members back to Washington to vote. And of course, Donald Trump agreeing to the deal as well. But I should also note that even when we get to the end of this shutdown, the clock is just starting to what might be the next shutdown? We're looking at delaying this debate over federal appropriations into December or January, not indefinitely. So there will be celebration when the government reopens and federal workers are paid and TSA and air traffic controllers are fully staffed. But we could be going through this all over again in just a month or two.

[Sarah Holder]

Wow. So this government shutdown is the longest in history, but it might not be the last.

[Megan Scully]

Certainly not.

[Sarah Holder]

This is the big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer if you like this episode, make sure to follow and review the Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.