How the ‘Power Game’ Is Reshaping Venezuela

Summary

Podcast Summary: Big Take – "How the ‘Power Game’ Is Reshaping Venezuela"

Date: February 26, 2026
Host: David Gura (Bloomberg)
Guest: Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst for the Andes, International Crisis Group

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Overview of the Episode

This episode of Bloomberg's Big Take delves deep into the seismic political changes shaking Venezuela following the US-led capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Host David Gura sits down with Phil Gunson, a veteran analyst who has lived in Caracas for nearly three decades, to examine:

• The lead-up and aftermath of the US military operation that removed Maduro from power
• The uncertain transitional phase under interim leader Delsey Rodriguez
• The interplay between US interests (especially around oil), Venezuelan political dynamics, and the desires of the Venezuelan people
• What the ongoing "power game" means for Venezuela's stability—and for US foreign policy at large

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Run-Up to Operation Absolute Resolve

[05:30]

• Gunson details the unexpected shift in US policy under President Trump’s new term. Initial moves suggested pragmatism, not aggressive regime change.
• Starting in August of the prior year, a dramatic US military buildup was justified as a counter-narcotics operation, widely interpreted as “saber rattling” rather than a real threat.
• Despite the show of force—including deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford—few insiders believed the US would actually intervene militarily.
• Gunson admits analysts and even Maduro himself saw the move as a bluff until the military operation became undeniable.
• Quote: “We began to say, well, you know, they just can’t just sail away. And Maduro showed no signs of leaving. It became very hard to understand how this was going to end.” (Phil Gunson, [06:05])

The Shock and Confusion After Maduro’s Ouster

[07:00]

• The attack came quickly and at night; Gunson humorously recalls sleeping through the initial barrage.
• The shock wasn’t the US attack itself (which had been threatened for weeks), but the rapid removal of Maduro and especially the unexpected US stance after:
  • Trump, in a press conference, states that opposition leader María Corina Machado, while admirable, lacks domestic support, so the US will work with now-interim leader Delsey Rodriguez.
• Quote: “The biggest surprise...was Trump saying, ‘Maria Corina Machado is a great lady, but...we’re going to be dealing with Delsey Rodriguez, who’s Maduro's vice president.’” (Phil Gunson, [07:56])

Power Dynamics: Who’s Running Venezuela Now?

[08:20]

• Despite Trump's claim the US will “run Venezuela,” in practice, US presence is limited—no occupation or "boots on the ground."
• The Venezuelan government, under Delsey Rodriguez, continues to operate, but under the expectation of US oversight and pressure.
• The US strategy is framed as a form of "neo-colonialism," attempting to steer without direct rule—a challenge in a large, complex, and armed nation.
• Quote: “My immediate thought was, seems to me the Venezuelan government is running Venezuela. But of course, then it becomes more complicated.” (Phil Gunson, [09:10])

The Pragmatism of Delsey Rodriguez

[10:04]

• Delsey Rodriguez and her brother Jorge are now key power brokers—able to switch strategies quickly to balance US demands and internal party ideology.
• Their adaptability helps stitch together an uneasy truce between hardliners, moderates, and US expectations.
• Quote: “She turned on a dime...she has maintained the narrative...about this being a socialist revolution, anti-imperialist and all the rest of it, whilst doing her best to comply with what Trump needs. That’s not an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can do it, she can.” (Phil Gunson, [10:41])

The Divided Opposition and the Challenge of Transition

[12:11]

• The Venezuelan opposition remains fragmented, complicating prospects for a political settlement or genuine transition.
• Key security figures fear prosecution or loss of influence, raising the stakes for a negotiated transition.
• Quote: “For them it’s an existential issue...it’s a case of day by day figuring out where the boundaries are.” (Phil Gunson, [11:35])

What Does “Transition” Mean?

[14:37]

• Gunson stresses that transition is a process, not a singular event:
  • It requires mutual concession and negotiation rather than a winner-take-all regime change.
  • He argues elections should occur toward the end of this process—not immediately after a coup.
• Quote: “‘Transition’ for us is a process whereby the government that is still in power concedes certain things over a period of time. The opposition also concedes certain things...Elections...should be closer towards the end of that process than the beginning.” (Phil Gunson, [14:57])

US Interests: It’s Not Just About Oil

[15:41]

• While oil is a driver, US objectives are broader:
  • Achieving a stable, business-friendly government aligned with US interests.
  • Excluding actors perceived as hostile—from Venezuela and the region.
• Gunson observes US emboldenment from this operation could shift broader foreign policy, referencing similar tactics considered toward Iran.
• Quote: “I think the US wants a stable, friendly Venezuela, open to US capital that excludes forces seen by the US as hostile to US interests.” (Phil Gunson, [15:59])

Has US Interest Helped the Venezuelan Economy?

[17:05]

• Quick financial influxes (from pre-bought oil sales) provided some short-term relief, influencing exchange rates, but haven’t reached ordinary citizens.
• The US cut of overseas aid under Trump immediately worsened malnutrition.
• Hopes for an economic turnaround exist, but tangible improvements are months away, if they materialize at all.
• Quote: “Right now, Venezuelans have hopes that this will improve. But what economists say is it’s going to take probably six to eight months before the real benefits, if they do filter down, eventually do do that.” (Phil Gunson, [18:27])

US-Venezuela Oil Visit: Image vs. Reality

[18:53]

• The recent visit by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright to Caracas—publicly touring oil installations—signals deeper energy cooperation.
• Opens the economy for now, but promises little for the democratic aspirations of average Venezuelans. The underlying tension: Will improved ties freeze out genuine political transition?
• Quote: “This could reach a new equilibrium of friendly relations...that have absolutely nothing to do with what the bulk of Venezuelans ultimately want to see because they’re not part of the discussion.” (Phil Gunson, [19:45])

What to Watch For Going Forward

[20:02]

• The main concern: The risk that negotiations continue “over the heads” of the Venezuelan people.
• Will the US push for meaningful transition—or accept stability on its own terms, even if it means ignoring Venezuelans’ democratic aspirations?
• Quote: “This is a dialogue between two governments, neither of which were elected by Venezuelans, really, let’s face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people. What I think is going to be one of our biggest questions is to what extent is the US prepared to push for this, given that moves towards a political transition could destabilize the rest of what they’re interested in.” (Phil Gunson, [20:16])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “A transition is a process, not an event.” (Phil Gunson, [04:32] & [14:37])

  • A phrase that recurs—emphasizing the unpredictable, drawn-out nature of Venezuelan politics.

• “She turned on a dime...whilst doing her best to comply with what Trump needs. That’s not an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can do it, she can.” (Phil Gunson on Delsey Rodriguez, [10:41])

  • Illustrates the flexibility (and political skill) of the interim leader.

• “This is a power game. It’s about staying in power.” (Phil Gunson, [11:24])

  • Getting to the heart of Venezuela's political reality post-Maduro.

• “Right now, Venezuelans have hopes that this will improve. But...it’s going to take probably six to eight months before the real benefits, if they do filter down, eventually do do that.” (Phil Gunson, [18:27])

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 05:30 | Background: The US buildup and “Operation Absolute Resolve” | | 07:00 | Chaos and rapid aftermath of Maduro’s removal | | 08:20 | Who holds power? Delsey Rodriguez, the US, and complexities| | 10:04 | The approach and adaptability of Delsey and Jorge Rodriguez| | 12:11 | Opposition fragmentation and the “existential” power struggle| | 14:37 | What is a true political transition? | | 15:41 | Is the US only after oil? | | 17:05 | Has US engagement improved the economy? | | 18:53 | US Energy Secretary’s Caracas visit—symbolism and economics| | 20:02 | The biggest question for Venezuela’s future |

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Conclusion

Through his on-the-ground expertise, Phil Gunson paints a sobering portrait of “the power game” dominating Venezuela today. What appeared as regime change is only the first step in an uncertain, drawn-out process—one in which outside actors (the US, especially) play an outsized but not absolute role. The fate of millions hinges not just on oil contracts or diplomatic gestures, but whether real political transition—messy, negotiated, and inclusive of average Venezuelans—can actually take hold.

Quote to sum up:
"This is a dialogue between two governments, neither of which were elected by Venezuelans, really, let’s face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people." (Phil Gunson, [20:16])

Transcript

[David Gura]

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[David Gura]

Hey, Sarah.

[Christina Raffini]

Nice to see you in the studio.

[David Gura]

It is good to be here with you.

[Christina Raffini]

And we're never here at the same time.

[David Gura]

We're never here at the same time. We're like ships in the night and so rarely are.

[Christina Raffini]

But okay. But now we're not ships in the night anymore. No, we've made it into the studio together.

[David Gura]

Yes.

[Christina Raffini]

So, David, ever since the US launched a major military operation in Venezuela in. And even before that, we've been talking a lot about it on the show.

[David Gura]

Yeah. I am fascinated by this story in part because I used to live in South America. I lived in Bolivia when that country was going through a political transition. I'm very eager to see sort of what will come of this effort the US Made to shake things up, change the circumstances of Venezuela.

[Christina Raffini]

And today we're going to hear a brand new conversation you had this week about the state of play in Venezuela. And it's also airing on this new show that you're about to launch, Bloomberg.

[David Gura]

Yes. So that new show is called Bloomberg this Weekend, and it's gonna debut on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio on Saturday. You can also stream it online. I'm gonna host it with Christina Raffini and Lisa Mateo.

[Christina Raffini]

David Gurr. You're doing a show during the week and during the weekend. When do you sleep?

[David Gura]

I'm trying to figure this out, but rest assured, I'm not going anywhere. I will be here on the Big Ting.

[Christina Raffini]

Well, your first get was a great get. Tell us about this guest who's coming on the show.

[David Gura]

Yeah. I sat down with Phil Gunson, who is a bit of a rarity. He's covered Latin America for the better part of four decades, and he's focused on one country in particular.

[Phil Gunson]

What it says on my business card is that I am Crisis Group's senior analyst for the Andes region. But in practice, that means that I focus on Venezuela. Venezuela keeps me busy. I've lived in caracas for nearly 27 years now.

[David Gura]

Phil moved there in 1999. So he was there when Hugo Chavez came to power. He was there when Hugo Chavez died. He was there when Nicolas Maduro became the president of Venezuela.

[Christina Raffini]

Was he there when the US Went in and captured Nicolas Maduro?

[David Gura]

He was there. And he told me his house is pretty close to the military base where Maduro was taken.

[Phil Gunson]

This is the point where I embarrassingly have to admit that I slept all the way through.

[David Gura]

You did.

[Phil Gunson]

I mean, the attack in Venezuelan time. The bombs and rockets started falling about 2 in the morning. I was fast asleep.

[Christina Raffini]

Wow.

[David Gura]

Yeah, that chaos didn't wake him up, but his phone eventually did. And since then, Phil has been really focused on how the US Is engaging with Venezuela today. He and I talked a lot about that, and we dug into really how uncertain the country's future is.

[Phil Gunson]

As we like to say in Crisis Group, a transition is a process, not an event.

[Christina Raffini]

Well, I'm really excited to hear more. So here's my co host David Gura with Phil Gunson. Don't forget to catch this and more on Bloomberg this weekend from 7 to 10am Eastern time every Saturday and Sunday, I'll be setting my alarm.

[David Gura]

I'm David Gura and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, my conversation with International Crisis Group senior analyst Phil Gun. We discuss how Venezuela has changed and how it hasn't since the US captured Nicolas Maduro and what could come next. Let's spend some time talking about the events of January 3rd with the US's Operation Absolute Resolve. Remind us what the run up to that was like, what the weeks and months leading up to that date were like and felt like in Venezuela.

[Phil Gunson]

You know, it was very startling, I suppose, because when Trump came back to power in January of last year, we and I think a lot of other analysts had concluded that Trump's approach to Venezuela was going to be rather less effective. I mean, it was going to be a pragmatic approach, not regime change, not maximum pressure as we saw under Trump. 1 and that was the way he started out. And then August of last year, we began to see this immense military buildup which was framed as a counter narcotics operation. And to be honest, I think in Crisis Group and elsewhere it was largely interpreted as a bluff. On the one hand, it's saber rattling in order to persuade Maduro to leave because the consequences of not doing so would be severe on the assumption that that would be enough, that there wouldn't be any need to put, as they say, boots on the ground because clearly Trump was not willing to do that. And so I think we, and I think President Maduro himself concluded, well, this is not going to really come to anything. But the buildup went on and on and on. And you had the aircraft carrier, you know, the Gerald R. Ford deployed to the Caribbean, this massive, massive military buildup to the point where we began to say, well, you know, they just can't just sail away. And Maduro showed no signs of leaving. It became very hard to understand how this was going to end. When it did conclude with January 3rd, it wasn't any of the scenarios that we had really anticipated.

[David Gura]

Could you describe the uncertainty of those hours that followed for you and for others who live in Venezuela, just wondering what would happen next and did it feel like a vacuum was opening up?

[Phil Gunson]

It was all really very quick, actually. I mean, it almost was too quick for us to properly work out what we were feeling about. I mean, the first sensation is, well, okay, it's obviously a US Attack. It's not a complete surprise because Trump had been threatening this repeatedly, pretty much every weekend for weeks before that. We'd been expecting some kind of attack. So in that sense, it wasn't totally shocking. What was really shocking was suddenly to realize Maduro was snatched along with his wife. What did that mean? But by the time we got around to trying to work out what that might mean, you know, there was already press conference in Washington with Trump saying, you know, announcing the operation. And that was, in a way, the biggest surprise of the whole morning, which was Trump saying, well, Maria Corina Machado is a great lady, but unfortunately she doesn't have the support in Venezuela to be installed as the government. So we're going to be dealing with Delsey Rodriguez, who's Maduro's vice president. That was probably the most surprising thing in those few hours.

[David Gura]

What is the state of political power in Venezuela today? So Maduro is gone. He's in a jail cell in Brooklyn. Delsey Rodriguez is in power on an interim basis. Maria Carney Machado is somewhere, we don't know exactly where. Who is in control? And how would you assess the longevity of the kind of political moment that we're in?

[Phil Gunson]

I think that's probably the key issue. Obviously, we heard from President Trump very soon after January 3rd. I can't remember it was on the same day, but within a couple of days at least, he was saying, the US Is going to be running Venezuela. We're looking around and going, where are they? Because there's nobody here on the ground. There's not been an embassy. There is now. They've reopened the embassy and they're starting to establish a US diplomatic presence in Caracas. But since 2019, there were no US diplomats in Venezuela. There certainly weren't boots on the ground. There's no military occupation in Venezuela. So in what sense is the US Running Venezuela? And my immediate thought was, seems to me the Venezuelan government is running Venezuela. But of course, then it becomes more complicated. Then you have to work out, well, okay, the US Says that they're going to be running Venezuela because if the Delsey government doesn't do what they say, then there will be consequences. And therefore, you know, this is kind of a neo colonial sort of operation. But to try to run especially a country the size of Venezuela, country twice the size of California, twice the size of Iraq, nearly 30 million people, topographically very difficult. Politically, very difficult, full of guns among the security forces and outside, how are you going to do that? How are you going to run Venezuela? So we're still working it out is the honest answer to that question, I think.

[David Gura]

How do you think about the role that Dilsey Rodriguez is playing, the apparent closeness she has with the Trump administration, the closeness that she had with Nicolas Maduro, the political power that she's amassed as a result of her career in Venezuelan politics, how she is navigating those two things.

[Phil Gunson]

Dulcie Rodriguez and her brother Jorge, who's the guy who runs the national assembly and is a key figure in all of this, he was Maduro's key negotiator for a very long time with the opposition and with the US These two, the Rodriguez siblings are smart people. They're very adaptable, they're very pragmatic. They're also very ideological. I mean, ideologically, they come from the same segment, if you like, of the ideological spectrum as President Maduro himself. They come from the far left, but they are adaptable. And I think that's the key to what Delsey is able to do right now, because she turned on a dime. I mean, and of course, she has maintained the discourse, the narrative for internal purposes about this being a socialist revolution, anti imperialist and all the rest of it, whilst doing her best to comply with what Trump needs. That's not an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can do it, she can. And she's demonstrated that so far. This is a power game. It's about staying in power. And in particular, I think what divides so called moderates from so called hardliners is whether or not they perceive a future for themselves under some form of political transition. I think the Rodriguez siblings can imagine, I don't think they want it, but I think they can imagine surviving a transition. But a lot of the people with guns cannot imagine that. And for them it's an existential issue. And so it's a case of day by day figuring out where the boundaries are. But then, of course, apart from that, the opposition is divided. And that, I think, is one of the key obstacles that might lie in the path of some form of political settlement, some form of transition.

[David Gura]

So what could US involvement in Venezuela tell us about Trump's approach to other countries? And is the President's endgame really just about oil? That's after the break.

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[David Gura]

Right now we are living through some

[Phil Gunson]

of the most tumultuous political times our

[David Gura]

country has ever known. I'm David Remnick, and each week on

[Phil Gunson]

the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try

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sense of what's happening alongside politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Charlamagne, tha God, and so many more.

[Phil Gunson]

That's all in the New Yorker Radio

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[Emily Simpson]

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[David Gura]

after the US Captured Nicolas Maduro, President Trump said the US Would run Venezuela, which raised a bunch of questions. I asked Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group what Maduro's expatriation has meant in real terms. I'd hoped you and I could talk about political transition, and I guess what's sort of peculiar about this moment is you have Maduro being removed from power, yet it seems like there hasn't been much of a political transition yet. I imagine the key to that is elections. At some point, are they being talked about? What would they need to look like to remove what I imagine is a huge hurdle here for there being any kind of viable political change?

[Phil Gunson]

Well, as we like to say in crisis group, a transition is a process, not an event. And one of the things I think that is problematic about the way some people in the opposition regard the term transition and the idea, the concept of transition is that they don't distinguish between transition and regime change. In other words, transition for them is you leave power, we take power. That's a transition. A transition for us is a process whereby the government that is still in power concedes certain things over a period of time. The opposition also concedes certain things, and they come to an agreement about where this process is going what the end result should be Elections, at least a presidential election, to my mind, should be closer towards the end of that process than the beginning.

[David Gura]

What is the US Getting from this leadership change? I suppose it's somebody who will return their phone calls. But what makes Delsey Rodriguez more palatable to the US than, and I should say US leadership, the Trump administration, than Nicolas Maduro was.

[Phil Gunson]

If you ask some people, they would say it's oil. I mean, Trump wants the oil, Dolce is giving him the oil, and therefore that's the beginning and the end of the story. I think it's a lot more complicated than that. And I don't actually think that oil in the purely material sense is necessarily even most of what it's about. I think the US Wants a stable, friendly Venezuela, open to US Capital that excludes forces seen by the US as hostile to US interests.

[David Gura]

So part of this grander plan for

[Phil Gunson]

the continent and even beyond, I mean, it's a geopolitical issue. And the facts of what happened on January 3rd in Venezuela, the very facts of that, the way it happened, what happened then, the implications of that are particularly significant for the region and the way the US Relates to the region and vice versa. But they're also have implications beyond. I mean, I think, for example, that what we're now seeing around Iran is partly Trump saying, well, look, it worked really well in Venezuela. I mean, you know, let's try and do the same in Iran. There's a sense in which the US Was emboldened by that event to say, oh, well, look, we don't even need to put boots on the ground. We can do these really, you know, very sophisticated military operations, and we can make people do what we want.

[David Gura]

You mentioned oil, and the President talks an awful lot about the potential for that to be good for Venezuela and good for the U.S. if U.S. energy companies were to go into Venezuela, build new infrastructure, repair old infrastructure, that could benefit both countries. First of all, I'm wondering just does the prospect of that, has that improved the economy in Venezuela at all? Just the fact that the US Is showing more interest in improving the economic situation in Venezuela?

[Phil Gunson]

Yes and no. The most immediate impact of that is, okay, the US took something like 50 million barrels of oil, sold it more or less at market prices, and via complicated financial arrangement, sent hundreds of millions of dollars into Venezuela, which were then sold by a set of private banks on the open market for more or less market rates. So that helped to bring down the exchange rate, but it's not yet filtered through or trickled down, if you like, to the extent that ordinary Venezuelans doing their weekly shopping can see a benefit. One of the huge problems that we have in Venezuela is that this is a country which ought to be rich, and it ought to be, you know, you ought to have, you know, a per capita income among the highest in the region, used to be among the highest in the world. And, and yet more than 80% of the population lives in poverty. And it's also worth mentioning that one of the first things Trump did when he came back to power last year was to slash overseas aid. And that had an immediate impact on malnutrition in Venezuela because the World Food Program immediately found its budgets cut. So right now, Venezuelans have hopes that this will improve. But what economists say is it's going to take probably six to eight months before the real benefits, if they do filter down, eventually do do that.

[David Gura]

There was this trip a couple of weeks ago. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary, traveled to Caracas and my colleague Henry Hordern was on that trip with him. And there is just something extraordinary about that image of seeing a US Energy secretary, a cabinet member, on the ground in Venezuela. What did that trip signal to you? And here I'm getting into the kind of longer term prospects of U.S. engagement in the energy sector.

[Phil Gunson]

One of the striking things about that was just reading the body language and the fact that the energy secretary and the interim president were chatting away happily to each other and touring oil installations. This is a really strange thing to see in Venezuela. But Delsey Rodriguez certainly is not reluctant to see the economy open up and more money come in. And in that sense, there's an awful lot of common ground where, of course, it may break down is if the US Starts to insist on a political transition. And so the danger that we see, I think, is that this could reach a new or we could basically maintain this new equilibrium of friendly relations between Washington, Caracas that have absolutely nothing to do with what the bulk of Venezuelans ultimately want to see because they're not part of the discussion.

[David Gura]

I want to ask you lastly, what you'll be watching for in the months ahead. What's most important to pay attention to?

[Phil Gunson]

You know, I think what most concerns me and what most concerns us in Crisis Group is precisely what I said about the fact that this is a dialogue between two governments, neither of which were elected by Venezuelans, really, let's face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people. What I think is going to be one of our biggest questions is to what extent is the US Prepared to push for this, given that moves towards a political transition could destabilize the rest of what they're interested in. It could create a backlash, for example, among the people who fear they might end up in jail of a transition happen. That's the sort of thing that we're really looking at.

[David Gura]

Phil, thank you very much.

[Phil Gunson]

Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

[David Gura]

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer if you like this episode, make sure to follow and review the Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Also, check out Bloomberg this Weekend, our new live weekend morning show. We bring news, analysis and some fun to your Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern Time. Bloomberg this weekend live on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio and [e-mail] thanks for listening. The Big Take we'll be back tomorrow.

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