Podcast Summary: Big Take – "How the ‘Power Game’ Is Reshaping Venezuela"

Date: February 26, 2026
Host: David Gura (Bloomberg)
Guest: Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst for the Andes, International Crisis Group

Overview of the Episode

This episode of Bloomberg's Big Take delves deep into the seismic political changes shaking Venezuela following the US-led capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Host David Gura sits down with Phil Gunson, a veteran analyst who has lived in Caracas for nearly three decades, to examine:

• The lead-up and aftermath of the US military operation that removed Maduro from power
• The uncertain transitional phase under interim leader Delsey Rodriguez
• The interplay between US interests (especially around oil), Venezuelan political dynamics, and the desires of the Venezuelan people
• What the ongoing "power game" means for Venezuela's stability—and for US foreign policy at large

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Run-Up to Operation Absolute Resolve

[05:30]

• Gunson details the unexpected shift in US policy under President Trump’s new term. Initial moves suggested pragmatism, not aggressive regime change.
• Starting in August of the prior year, a dramatic US military buildup was justified as a counter-narcotics operation, widely interpreted as “saber rattling” rather than a real threat.
• Despite the show of force—including deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford—few insiders believed the US would actually intervene militarily.
• Gunson admits analysts and even Maduro himself saw the move as a bluff until the military operation became undeniable.
• Quote: “We began to say, well, you know, they just can’t just sail away. And Maduro showed no signs of leaving. It became very hard to understand how this was going to end.” (Phil Gunson, [06:05])

The Shock and Confusion After Maduro’s Ouster

[07:00]

• The attack came quickly and at night; Gunson humorously recalls sleeping through the initial barrage.
• The shock wasn’t the US attack itself (which had been threatened for weeks), but the rapid removal of Maduro and especially the unexpected US stance after:
  • Trump, in a press conference, states that opposition leader María Corina Machado, while admirable, lacks domestic support, so the US will work with now-interim leader Delsey Rodriguez.
• Quote: “The biggest surprise...was Trump saying, ‘Maria Corina Machado is a great lady, but...we’re going to be dealing with Delsey Rodriguez, who’s Maduro's vice president.’” (Phil Gunson, [07:56])

Power Dynamics: Who’s Running Venezuela Now?

[08:20]

• Despite Trump's claim the US will “run Venezuela,” in practice, US presence is limited—no occupation or "boots on the ground."
• The Venezuelan government, under Delsey Rodriguez, continues to operate, but under the expectation of US oversight and pressure.
• The US strategy is framed as a form of "neo-colonialism," attempting to steer without direct rule—a challenge in a large, complex, and armed nation.
• Quote: “My immediate thought was, seems to me the Venezuelan government is running Venezuela. But of course, then it becomes more complicated.” (Phil Gunson, [09:10])

The Pragmatism of Delsey Rodriguez

[10:04]

• Delsey Rodriguez and her brother Jorge are now key power brokers—able to switch strategies quickly to balance US demands and internal party ideology.
• Their adaptability helps stitch together an uneasy truce between hardliners, moderates, and US expectations.
• Quote: “She turned on a dime...she has maintained the narrative...about this being a socialist revolution, anti-imperialist and all the rest of it, whilst doing her best to comply with what Trump needs. That’s not an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can do it, she can.” (Phil Gunson, [10:41])

The Divided Opposition and the Challenge of Transition

[12:11]

• The Venezuelan opposition remains fragmented, complicating prospects for a political settlement or genuine transition.
• Key security figures fear prosecution or loss of influence, raising the stakes for a negotiated transition.
• Quote: “For them it’s an existential issue...it’s a case of day by day figuring out where the boundaries are.” (Phil Gunson, [11:35])

What Does “Transition” Mean?

[14:37]

• Gunson stresses that transition is a process, not a singular event:
  • It requires mutual concession and negotiation rather than a winner-take-all regime change.
  • He argues elections should occur toward the end of this process—not immediately after a coup.
• Quote: “‘Transition’ for us is a process whereby the government that is still in power concedes certain things over a period of time. The opposition also concedes certain things...Elections...should be closer towards the end of that process than the beginning.” (Phil Gunson, [14:57])

US Interests: It’s Not Just About Oil

[15:41]

• While oil is a driver, US objectives are broader:
  • Achieving a stable, business-friendly government aligned with US interests.
  • Excluding actors perceived as hostile—from Venezuela and the region.
• Gunson observes US emboldenment from this operation could shift broader foreign policy, referencing similar tactics considered toward Iran.
• Quote: “I think the US wants a stable, friendly Venezuela, open to US capital that excludes forces seen by the US as hostile to US interests.” (Phil Gunson, [15:59])

Has US Interest Helped the Venezuelan Economy?

[17:05]

• Quick financial influxes (from pre-bought oil sales) provided some short-term relief, influencing exchange rates, but haven’t reached ordinary citizens.
• The US cut of overseas aid under Trump immediately worsened malnutrition.
• Hopes for an economic turnaround exist, but tangible improvements are months away, if they materialize at all.
• Quote: “Right now, Venezuelans have hopes that this will improve. But what economists say is it’s going to take probably six to eight months before the real benefits, if they do filter down, eventually do do that.” (Phil Gunson, [18:27])

US-Venezuela Oil Visit: Image vs. Reality

[18:53]

• The recent visit by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright to Caracas—publicly touring oil installations—signals deeper energy cooperation.
• Opens the economy for now, but promises little for the democratic aspirations of average Venezuelans. The underlying tension: Will improved ties freeze out genuine political transition?
• Quote: “This could reach a new equilibrium of friendly relations...that have absolutely nothing to do with what the bulk of Venezuelans ultimately want to see because they’re not part of the discussion.” (Phil Gunson, [19:45])

What to Watch For Going Forward

[20:02]

• The main concern: The risk that negotiations continue “over the heads” of the Venezuelan people.
• Will the US push for meaningful transition—or accept stability on its own terms, even if it means ignoring Venezuelans’ democratic aspirations?
• Quote: “This is a dialogue between two governments, neither of which were elected by Venezuelans, really, let’s face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people. What I think is going to be one of our biggest questions is to what extent is the US prepared to push for this, given that moves towards a political transition could destabilize the rest of what they’re interested in.” (Phil Gunson, [20:16])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “A transition is a process, not an event.” (Phil Gunson, [04:32] & [14:37])

  • A phrase that recurs—emphasizing the unpredictable, drawn-out nature of Venezuelan politics.

• “She turned on a dime...whilst doing her best to comply with what Trump needs. That’s not an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can do it, she can.” (Phil Gunson on Delsey Rodriguez, [10:41])

  • Illustrates the flexibility (and political skill) of the interim leader.

• “This is a power game. It’s about staying in power.” (Phil Gunson, [11:24])

  • Getting to the heart of Venezuela's political reality post-Maduro.

• “Right now, Venezuelans have hopes that this will improve. But...it’s going to take probably six to eight months before the real benefits, if they do filter down, eventually do do that.” (Phil Gunson, [18:27])

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 05:30 | Background: The US buildup and “Operation Absolute Resolve” | | 07:00 | Chaos and rapid aftermath of Maduro’s removal | | 08:20 | Who holds power? Delsey Rodriguez, the US, and complexities| | 10:04 | The approach and adaptability of Delsey and Jorge Rodriguez| | 12:11 | Opposition fragmentation and the “existential” power struggle| | 14:37 | What is a true political transition? | | 15:41 | Is the US only after oil? | | 17:05 | Has US engagement improved the economy? | | 18:53 | US Energy Secretary’s Caracas visit—symbolism and economics| | 20:02 | The biggest question for Venezuela’s future |

Conclusion

Through his on-the-ground expertise, Phil Gunson paints a sobering portrait of “the power game” dominating Venezuela today. What appeared as regime change is only the first step in an uncertain, drawn-out process—one in which outside actors (the US, especially) play an outsized but not absolute role. The fate of millions hinges not just on oil contracts or diplomatic gestures, but whether real political transition—messy, negotiated, and inclusive of average Venezuelans—can actually take hold.

Quote to sum up:
"This is a dialogue between two governments, neither of which were elected by Venezuelans, really, let’s face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people." (Phil Gunson, [20:16])