David Gura (2:33)

And it's also a challenge for the computer systems that process those refund requests.

Cindy Allen (2:38)

It is one of the largest government computer systems that is in existence and processes billions of dollars in duty.

David Gura (2:48)

Cindy Allen runs Tradeforce Multiplier, a global

Cindy Allen (2:51)

trade consultancy service, as well as hundreds of millions of transactions each year for importing and exporting.

David Gura (3:00)

So there are the logistical hurdles. And then there's another layer of complication for companies that's more political.

Laura Curtis (3:08)

So when Trump was asked on CNBC about if he would be offended if companies pursued refunds, the question was posed. Companies like Apple and Amazon aren't seeking refunds because there is a worry about frankly offending.

Public Investing Representative (3:24)

You do.

Donald Trump (3:25)

Would you find it offensive for them

Public Investing Representative (3:27)

to try to collect a refund?

Donald Trump (3:29)

It's brilliant. If they don't do that.

Laura Curtis (3:31)

I actually think if they don't do

Donald Trump (3:32)

that, they got to know me very well.

Laura Curtis (3:35)

This whole tariff rollout over the last year has been so chaotic and challenging for the people who are really trying to comply. I think there's a lot of hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. And this is a case where I think there's some caution.

David Gura (3:52)

I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News today on the show. Will $166 billion in tariff refunds actually make its way back to the companies that paid those tariffs and to consume consumers?

Donald Trump (4:09)

When you put on tariffs, tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented. You know, I took in, I took in $467 billion from China. Nobody else took in anything.

Laura Curtis (4:22)

When Trump was campaigning, he promised to put the highest tariffs ever in place. And in order to protect US Businesses and kind of spur this, this manufacturing

David Gura (4:32)

Reenaissance Again, here's Bloomberg's Laura Curtis.

Laura Curtis (4:34)

Turns out he was quite serious about that.

Donald Trump (4:38)

In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they.

David Gura (4:49)

President Trump said the tariffs were necessary for national security. These IIPA tariffs were pretty quickly challenged in several different courts. And by February, the Supreme Court ruled they were illegal.

Laura Curtis (5:01)

And so the result of that is the Court of International Trade has been dealing with the aftermath of trying to figure out how to refund this $166 billion in duties to the US importers who paid them.

David Gura (5:16)

Who is eligible for these refunds?

Podcast Host/Interviewer (5:18)

Who can apply for a refund and who can't?

Laura Curtis (5:20)

Well, when a company or a person imports something from another country, they have to file forms with Customs and Border prot. As the, it's called importer of record. And so that importer of record can be a wholesaler or it can be, you know, somebody on Etsy, but it has to be that, that designation, that importer of record according to customs or the customs broker who filed on their behalf.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (5:49)

So I guess with the exception of the mom and pop Etsy seller, we're really talking about companies here versus individuals Correct?

Laura Curtis (5:56)

Yes.

David Gura (5:58)

And that is where this web portal comes in that CBP has created. It's called cape, which is short for Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries. It's the site where you apply for tariff refunds. Can you just describe what this interface looks like, what you have to do

Podcast Host/Interviewer (6:14)

to make an application for one of these refunds?

Laura Curtis (6:17)

Yes, it's a spreadsheet.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (6:19)

Nothing fancier than that.

David Gura (6:21)

It may not be fancy, but Laura says that portal was up and running quickly. A pleasant surprise to many customs experts like Cindy Allen, the trade consultancy CEO, who also spent years working at the CBP overseeing its electronic reporting system called ace.

Cindy Allen (6:38)

I think the process is working really well. I am shocked and very pleased and really proud of the CBP team and their ability to roll out a major piece of functionality in essentially 45 days.

David Gura (6:53)

Cindy now advises importers and exporters, brokers and freighters as they navigate complicated customs regulations. And she's seen a broad range of clients across industries dealing with these refunds.

Cindy Allen (7:05)

The common element here is every import into the United States, with a few carve outs for automotive and some other Section 232 tariffs, were subject to IEEPA duties. So almost everyone who's paid IEEPA duties has an interest in filing for a refund request. So it's small and large companies.

David Gura (7:28)

Laura, what do we know about what companies or what kinds of companies are applying for these refunds? Is there any way to kind of categorize that?

Laura Curtis (7:36)

I know, for example, UPS in their earnings call discussed this and they said they processed 16 million entries that are related to IEEPA duties. And as a result of those, 16 million entries, remitted over $5 billion to the U.S. treasury. So that's what they're telling people that they have coming back now. They've also promised to pass those refunds straight back to their customers who paid them. And those people would be more like the consumer level folks who just order something one off from abroad. It's also, you know, going to be a complex thing for them to manage.

David Gura (8:16)

Have any of those shipping companies talked

Podcast Host/Interviewer (8:18)

about how well positioned they are to actually get this money back to customers, or is it still too early for them to have figured that out?

Laura Curtis (8:25)

No, they have not. They have not provided details on their own version of caep. They've also said that they are going to wait to receive their own refunds from the government. So that's a big caveat. So, yeah, we don't know exactly who, you know, which companies have applied yet, but we do know which companies have sued.

David Gura (8:45)

So these are companies that sued the

Podcast Host/Interviewer (8:47)

government to make sure they'd be eligible to apply for refunds like these before this whole online portal was launched.

David Gura (8:54)

Name a few of those companies.

Laura Curtis (8:55)

Well, I think the probably most famous one was Costco, and that raised the administration's ire a bit. I think that's part of the reason that people are concerned about offending the president by applying for refunds. We also know that FedEx has sued, but also important to know that those suits are on hold while this CAPE process plays out. So actually, in a filing that came out earlier this week, CBP told the trade court that they expect the first refunds to go out actually on May 11, which is way earlier than anybody expected. So we'll see whether that happens and how significant that first trial. But it's a good sign.

David Gura (9:42)

Customs and Border Patrol provided numbers from the first week its CAPE system was up and running. And CBP says in that week it had done a first review of 13.3 million import entries. And of those, about 2 million had been denied so far. Cindy Allen told us those rejections are for the most part a product of earlier chaos in the tariff process.

Cindy Allen (10:05)

So why are those being rejected? It's not because there is an error in the system. It's because the entry information as it was originally transmitted by the customs broker was not in keeping with the requirements that eventually were established. For example, if you had an IPA duty, as well as a 232 duty, as well as a 301 case, there was no instructions on how to transmit that in what order and how you would show the duty calculation. So CBP eventually came out with instructions and all of the customs brokers followed that. But what we're finding is a lot of the rejections that are happening are because those initial entries were not transmitted in accordance with instructions that were sent out later.

David Gura (11:02)

And this confusion is par for the course. Laura says similar to what businesses and brokers experienced over the last year, the

Laura Curtis (11:09)

way that these tariffs were rolled out over the last year was incredibly chaotic, haphazard even. Yes. I mean, they in some cases the official paperwork conflicted with what Trump said. That happened many times. And then even sometimes the customs guidance would conflict with itself. And so importers really didn't know the best way to categorize things. They didn't know the best way to stack different types of tariffs. Things were changing so fast. Sometimes, for example, they were eligible to pay a lower rate if their goods were already on the water when the tariffs were announced. And in Other cases they weren't. Sometimes that took a long time to hash out. And so what we're seeing I think now with those kicked back entries is the consequence of that. In a lot of cases, you know, people like brokers that I talked to, they did their best, but I think people did what they could to get their goods out of port. Right. And now they have to may have to make some adjustments based on updated guidance.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (12:16)

Before this refund portal was announced, the judge who's overseeing the refund process expressed

David Gura (12:21)

concern in court about importers having to request refunds.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (12:25)

Why, the judge wondered, wouldn't the government just send the refunds automatically based on existing data?

David Gura (12:30)

Is there a way that this could

Podcast Host/Interviewer (12:31)

have been done more simply? What if experts told you just about the way that this process has been designed and how it's unfolding?

Laura Curtis (12:37)

CBP has all the data, Right. They collected the money. The argument is they could easily have just sent it back to the person who paid it. Another big surprise for people is that between this year and last year when these tariffs started is CBP is no longer issuing paper checks. Now it's all direct deposit, which requires a whole nother enrollment process within CBP software. It's also so much money. I mean, can you imagine sending checks willy nilly or direct deposits like without verifying where they're going or people move? I think there are a lot of reasons that it doesn't make sense for CP CBP to have just issued the refunds as paid. They're also doing a fair amount of verification that the duties paid at the time are correct. Right. This is an opportunity. They have to make sure that they are not refunding money that is legitimately owed to them. Even though these tariffs are illegal.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (13:33)

It seems like it's a headache for a lot of companies to have to go through all of this. Have you heard that from smaller companies, smaller importers, just about the work that they have to put in to try to get this money back?

Laura Curtis (13:43)

Yeah, it's a big headache. The whole thing has been a big headache though, Right. I think the refund process is one that they're kind of happy to endure compared to the headache of the last year. A lot of the smaller guys will have to deal more with FedEx and DHL anyway because they do handle a lot of imports for smaller businesses. But yeah, it's definitely been an administrative burden. But I think, you know, the idea of getting the money back is a nice carrot.

David Gura (14:17)

Coming up, how politics is influencing which companies apply for refunds and what tens of billions of dollars in potential refunds mean for President Trump.

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Podcast Host/Interviewer (16:35)

There have been many moments when the president has talked about the benefits of the US Government taking in all of this money. He's talked about what he would spend it on, what it might free up. Broadly speaking, what plans did the government have for the money that they brought in through these IPA tariffs?

Laura Curtis (16:51)

Well, at first it was all about the revenue, right? I mean, we had these projections that showed a big dent in the in the deficit as a result of the tariffs. That conversation has waned a little bit. I think. For example, the expense of the tax overhaul that passed over the summer The Iran war. Now, you know, tariffs aren't really going to put as much of a dent in those things also because people are having a hard time with cost of living and maybe not wanting to be reminded of this money that's being taken in at the border. But I think what I'm hearing more now is a discussion around tariffs benefit as leverage in trade talks with other trading partners more than the revenue that they bring in.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (17:37)

And perhaps a stupid question, but it's not like this money came in and then sat in escrow. It's not like there was a pot of money just sitting there that now the government can pull money out of and send back to companies and perhaps individuals.

Laura Curtis (17:50)

Well, it's not in escrow, but it is in the Treasury's general account. So, I mean, it's basically the checking account of the United States. Yeah.

David Gura (17:58)

Do you expect that the full 160

Podcast Host/Interviewer (18:00)

billion is going to be refunded? Is there any uncertainty surrounding that?

Laura Curtis (18:05)

Oh, there's a lot of uncertainty around how much will actually be refunded of that. Some of the ways that shipping contracts were set up had the importer of record as a Chinese freight forwarder, for example, and that's going to get really hairy because those companies may or may not have paid the full duty on the full value of the goods. And so for importers who went that route, I think they may not want to open that can of worms.

David Gura (18:35)

Laura, what about those remarks from President

Podcast Host/Interviewer (18:37)

Trump suggesting he would look kindly on companies who choose not to file for tariff refunds?

Laura Curtis (18:43)

Importers I've been talking to some are concerned that if they file for the refunds that they're owed, Trump will find out and he'll target them as a result. I think for the most part, people are filing because they have a duty to their shareholders or, you know, have planned to go after those refunds. But yeah, it is quite chilling. I think it's something that will be interesting to watch.

David Gura (19:09)

Laura pointed out that if companies have filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds, that would be public information. But Cindy Allen says applications for tariff refunds are confidential.

Cindy Allen (19:20)

Whether the administration is seeking that information from cbp, we don't know. But generally the only way that anyone knows refunds have been filed is to either self disclose that or for that information to come from cbp. Large companies are really sensitive to the fact that the administration has made some concerning statements about following the companies that are filing for a refund and, and treating them favorably or unfavorably if they have. And that's a huge concern for larger corporations. They want to manage both their brand risk as well as their company financial risk.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (20:03)

Laura, after the Supreme Court struck down

David Gura (20:05)

these tariffs, it was actually a different

Podcast Host/Interviewer (20:06)

court, the Court of International Trade, that found the government had to proceed with these refunds.

David Gura (20:11)

The Trump administration, as I understand it,

Podcast Host/Interviewer (20:12)

can't appeal that decision. But somewhat surprisingly, at least to me,

David Gura (20:16)

it hasn't done that. Why is that the case?

Laura Curtis (20:18)

Well, I do not know why they have not appealed it. You know, I've talked to folks who think maybe that would be not a very politically advantageous thing to do at this moment in time. And I've talked to plenty of people who are pretty convinced that he still has time to appeal it and will. And that, gosh, that'll be interesting. If some of the refunds have already gone out.

David Gura (20:43)

It gets to a question I have

Podcast Host/Interviewer (20:44)

just about the psychology of these companies vis a vis tariffs at this moment. How much are companies, in light of what they've been through here, with tariffs put on and taken off, increased and reduced? Now, watching this refund process unfold, maybe wondering if the government is going to appeal, if new tariffs are going to replace old ones, how are companies dealing with kind of broader ambiguity surrounding, yes, the tariffs policy, but, but also now this new ambiguity around the refunds policy?

Laura Curtis (21:12)

Well, I think companies are, they're just trying to be business as usual as much as they can. And I think uncertainty has become a little bit more usual in the last year. The current set of tariffs under section 122 is a 10% levy across the board and it expires in July. So I should say section 122 is, is the sort of stopgap to replace IPA. There are other tariffs that remain in place and have not been disrupted, but the administration has pledged to find alternate ways of raising this revenue. I think companies are just moving forward under the assumption that tariffs are here to stay.

David Gura (22:00)

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe. Subscribe today@bloomberg.com podcastoffer if you liked this episode, make sure to follow and review the Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (22:15)

It helps people find the show.

David Gura (22:17)

Thanks for listening.

Podcast Host/Interviewer (22:18)

We'll be back tomorrow.

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