How Trump Is Bursting the $100 Billion Grad School Bubble

Summary

Podcast Summary: Big Take — How Trump Popped the $100 Billion Grad School Bubble

Host: Sarah Holder, Bloomberg News and iHeartPodcasts
Guest: Liam Knox (Education Reporter, Bloomberg) and Rob Towner (Stevens Institute of Technology)
Date: July 8, 2026
Episode Focus:
This episode analyzes the drastic changes underway in U.S. graduate education, specifically how Trump administration policies—from capping federal student loans to tightening international student visas and reducing research funding—are bursting the long-booming $100 billion grad school market. Reporters and university officials detail how the system grew reliant on graduate degrees and what’s at stake as the bubble deflates.

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Main Themes and Purpose

• Grad School’s Financial Centrality: U.S. universities have increasingly depended on growing, high-priced graduate programs to fill funding gaps left by falling undergraduate enrollments.
• Government Policy Shift: The Trump administration’s new policies are disrupting this model through loan caps, curbs on international enrollment, and research funding cuts.
• Implications: These changes threaten university revenue, reshape student opportunity, and may force a transformation (or contraction) in U.S. higher education.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Rise and Purpose of Graduate Programs

[01:49] Sarah Holder: Each fall, around 3 million new grad students begin coursework at U.S. universities, a number now dropping due to policy changes.

[02:15] Liam Knox: Even prestigious schools like Cornell and MIT are admitting hundreds fewer grad students.

“MIT is going to admit 500 fewer grad students in the fall. It's a huge deal for a university which is known for its graduate programs.” (02:18)

[02:53] Sarah Holder: With undergrad numbers down, universities turned to master’s programs—a $100 billion market—to financially sustain themselves.

[04:46] Liam Knox:

“Master’s programs have exploded in the past two decades. They've grown by double the rate of other degrees in the country.” (04:46)

Why Did Grad Programs Become So Financially Important?

[05:30] Liam Knox:

1. Federal Lending: The 2006 Grad PLUS program created a stream of uncapped, unlimited federal loans, making grad school financially viable for many and providing a lucrative pool for universities.

“The federal government created...an unlimited stream of loans for graduate students...That made what might have been a difficult financial decision a lot more feasible for a lot of people.” (05:30)

2. 2008 Recession: As workers sought shelter from a weak job market, demand for master’s skyrocketed, prompting colleges to multiply offerings—especially as undergrad enrollments plateaued.

[06:56] Liam Knox:

“They needed alternative sources of revenue. And so U.S. colleges kind of put a lot of their eggs in that basket and really invest heavily in master's programs, which were often really big cash cows...” (06:56)

[07:26] Sarah Holder:

• Between 1991 and 2019, the number of master’s degrees awarded grew by 140%, far outpacing bachelor’s.

The Trump Administration’s Disruptive Policies

[07:50] Liam Knox: Three major points of pressure:

1. International Student Restrictions: New visa hurdles sharply lower international grad student numbers—especially in STEM, “where students from India and China and other countries...where visa crackdowns are having the biggest effect...” (08:31)
2. Federal Loan Caps:
   • Unlimited borrowing replaced with caps: $20,000/year for most, $50,000/year for select professional programs.
   • Many programs cost far more, so students may resort to private loans with less favorable terms.

“Now there is a $20,000 a year cap on almost all grad programs. There's an additional cap for some programs...law school, medical school...up to $50,000.” (11:01)

3. Cuts to Federal Research Funding:
   • Agencies like NIH and NSF reducing support, undermining the resources that draw students and fuel innovation.

“Federal support for that starts plummeting as it has been, or if even there's uncertainty around it...that's going to have an effect on students' appetite for those kinds of programs.” (09:57)

Consequences for Universities and Students

• Financial Impact: Cutting off a central revenue stream threatens not just elite but also mid-tier and smaller colleges.
• Workforce Implications: High-need fields like nursing, social work, and teaching—where students rely on federal loans—face increased shortages due to new caps.
• Downsizing and Layoffs: Faced with falling revenues, universities are downsizing, laying off staff, and selling off campus assets.

“They actually train more than half of the social workers in the state of Oregon, and they're laying off staff. The cuts there are very painful to faculty and to students.” (20:40, Liam Knox)

• Shifts in Program Offerings:
  • Growing shift toward shorter, online credentials and certificate programs.
  • Traditional, on-campus master’s programs are being downsized or phased out.

“Almost every major university...is looking into short term AI credential programs...not one to two year master's degrees...” (19:50, Liam Knox)

University Approaches to Survive

[17:51] Sarah Holder introduces Rob Towner (Stevens):

• Plugging Gaps: Targeting new student markets, especially through online offerings and shorter-in-scope certificate credentials.
• Lowering Costs: Stevens halved the fee for its online MBA to $36,000 for two years—now covered by capped federal loans.

“People don't have the kind of money they used to have to go afford to go to grad school...our online MBA degree, we've cut that in half.” (18:42, Rob Towner/19:12)

• Stacked Credentials: Emphasizing certificates students can “stack” over time, using flexible/affordable approaches.

Counterpoints and Academic Skepticism

[12:51] Sarah Holder:

• The rationale: Loan caps are meant to force universities to lower tuition and control rising student debt—grad degrees drive 40% of the $1.7T owed.

[12:51] Liam Knox:

“The reality is that that's not really how the higher ed market works...So far, very few colleges have given any indication that what they're going to do in response is lower their costs.” (12:51)

– Many academics agree grad education was a financial bubble, but are critical of current policies’ bluntness.

“…There is a real frustration with how universities have operated as businesses...the ever growing American university...a kind of backlash which is coming now.” (21:59, Liam Knox)

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Notable Quotes

• On the sudden downturn:
  “Some of the even most elite institutions in the country are seeing very significant declines in their grad enrollment.” (02:06, Liam Knox)

• On master’s as financial crutch:
  “Master's degrees have become kind of part of the financial foundation of the higher ed system.” (05:10, Liam Knox)

• On university business incentives:
  “Universities are not just a ivy clad center of academic and intellectual enrichment. They're businesses.” (02:36, Liam Knox)

• On international students as revenue lifeline:
  “International students, whether it's here at Stevens or other institutions, tend to be full pay students and tend to be a large amount of revenue that comes into a university.” (18:09, Rob Towner)

• On academic reckoning:
  “There is a real frustration with how universities have operated as businesses... with how they've treated costs...the ever growing American university that has been a real sore spot for not just Republicans in Washington, but academics across the country who see it as unsustainable.” (21:59, Liam Knox)

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Important Timestamps

• [01:49] — Introduction to dramatic drops in grad enrollment
• [04:46] — The rapid rise of master’s programs
• [05:30] — How federal lending (Grad PLUS) turbocharged demand
• [07:50] — The three Trump-era policy “stressors”
• [08:31] — How international student policies are biting STEM programs
• [09:57] — Federal research funding cuts and their effects
• [11:01] — New federal loan caps explained
• [12:51] — Debate: Will loan limits force colleges to lower tuition?
• [17:51] — How Stevens Institute of Technology is revamping for survival
• [19:50] — Shift toward short-term and online credentials
• [20:40] — Layoffs and university downsizing
• [21:59] — Academics’ perspective: Was a reckoning inevitable?

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Tone and Language

Conversational but data-driven, with direct quotes from experts and institutional leaders. The discussion is honest about higher ed’s business realities and the student debt crisis while noting uncertainty about policy outcomes.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode presents a comprehensive look at how U.S. graduate education is at a crossroads. An era of ever-expanded graduate offerings, fueled by easy lending and international enrollment, is ending abruptly thanks to Trump-era rules. Universities, students, and researchers are now scrambling to adjust. The “great shrinking” may be underway—one with uncertain consequences for workforce preparedness, university viability, and America’s global academic edge.

Transcript

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[Sarah Holder]

radio news every fall, around 3 million graduate students from all around the world start classes at colleges and universities across the U.S. but this year, some of their classrooms will be a little emptier.

[Liam Knox]

Some of the even most elite institutions in the country are seeing very significant declines in their grad enrollment.

[Sarah Holder]

Bloomberg Education reporter Liam Knox Cornell is

[Liam Knox]

down by over 200 students. MIT is going to admit 500 fewer grad students in the fall. It's a huge deal for a university which is known for its graduate programs. Big flagships like the University of Wisconsin, they're seeing similar declines, and Liam says

[Sarah Holder]

the loss of those students could have a big financial impact on the US Higher education system.

[Liam Knox]

Universities are not just a ivy clad center of academic and intellectual enrichment. They're businesses. And over the past few decades, that business model has become increasingly leveraged on graduate programs, in particular the master's degree.

[Sarah Holder]

As undergraduate enrollment has declined in recent years, many universities have doubled down on their graduate programs, relying more and more on tuition from graduate students to fill funding gaps and support schools ever expanding offerings. Today, the U.S. market for grad school is worth about $100 billion. But that could all change.

[Liam Knox]

Right now, the Trump administration is the biggest threat to that business model.

[Sarah Holder]

The White House is on a mission to reshape the country's higher education system, and Liam says its policy agenda is hitting grad school programs in a few key ways.

[Liam Knox]

There are policies that would make master's programs harder to pay for, that would make it much harder for international students to come and pursue these degrees that make federal funding for grad programs a lot less certain. Those things hit at the financial heart of the modern American university and its business model. And in a lot of ways that has a more widespread and sweeping effect on what American campuses might look like, what kind of power they have, than going after specific elite institutions.

[Sarah Holder]

I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today on the show how the US Graduate school bubble grew and the Trump administration policies that could make it burst. Getting an advanced degree like a PhD has long been a status symbol, an extra boost for a resume, something that can lead to a pay bump or a fancier title in some professions. But the growing emphasis that colleges and universities have put on master's programs is actually a relatively recent phenomenon.

[Liam Knox]

Master's programs have exploded in the past two decades. They've grown by doubled the rate of other degrees in the country. They're now the most commonly held advanced degree.

[Sarah Holder]

There's a wide range of master's programs out there. You can go get a master's degree in public health, computer science or social work, or you can get what's considered a professional degree by going to medical school or law school.

[Liam Knox]

Master's degrees have become kind of part of the financial foundation of the higher ed system and a huge part of how employers look for highly skilled workers in certain fields.

[Sarah Holder]

What explains that? Why over the past few decades have master's degrees become so important?

[Liam Knox]

Well, the explosion of master's degrees really kind of started in the mid-2000s for a number of reasons. In 2006, the federal government created what's called the Grad plus program, which is essentially a stream of uncapped unlimited loans for graduate students that would allow any student going to an advanced program to take out not only up to the Cost of tuition, but also room, board, sometimes cost of living expenses in order to kind of get them through going back to school before they enter the workforce again. Now, that made what might have been a difficult financial decision a lot more feasible for a lot of people. It also created a pretty big pool of federal money that universities were very keen to dive into when the Great

[Sarah Holder]

Recession hit just a couple of years later, many workers opted to wait out the bad job market by going back to school, hoping both the economy and their job prospects would be better once they had a master's. Schools responded to this new demand for the degrees by creating new master's programs.

[Liam Knox]

It wasn't just the major research universities multiplying their offerings. It was also liberal arts colleges becoming universities that had graduate schools. And that trend continued in part because the number of traditional undergraduate students, 18 year olds coming out of high school, going to college, started to decline at around the same time.

[Sarah Holder]

So they were relying more and more on these master's students.

[Liam Knox]

They had to fill the gap somehow. They needed alternative sources of revenue. And so UCL colleges kind of put a lot of their eggs in that basket and really invest heavily in master's programs, which were often really big cash cows because students could get federal loans. There wasn't a lot of aid involved from universities. They were often very expensive, and they created this very lucrative cash flow for universities. It seemed like the master's was the new bachelor's, right?

[Sarah Holder]

Between 1991 and 2019, the number of master's degrees awarded annually grew by over 140%. That's nearly double the rate of increase of bachelor's degrees in the same time period. But since the start of President Trump's second term, his administration has rolled out a suite of new policies that are hitting universities and their master's programs hard.

[Liam Knox]

The three major stressors are attacks on international students who make up a huge amount of these programs. New caps on previously unlimited federal lending for grad programs, which have really fueled the explosion in master's degrees. And then there's the reduction in federal research funding, where even the most elite universities are seeing double digit percentage point declines in their federal funding for these programs.

[Sarah Holder]

So let's go through each one in a little bit more detail. You mentioned this idea of the restrictions on international students. How has that been impacting graduate programs? And are there certain types of programs that are being hit harder than others?

[Liam Knox]

Across the board, international students are more represented at graduate programs than at undergraduate colleges. Some of these programs have, you know, more than half of their seats are filled by student visa holders. And there are big worries about the sustainability of that. If we see 20, 30, even more percent declines in foreign students coming to this country in the next few years, the decline in international students is going to specifically hit STEM programs very hard. Where students from India and China and other countries in Africa and in South Asia, where visa crackdowns are having the biggest effect, the universities are going to have to completely kind of reshape the way they're thinking about how they fund and enroll in those programs. And that's a big deal because a lot of the emerging fields that even the Trump administration says they want to continue to invest in, like say, semiconductor engineering, the pipelines to those programs of global talent run through these master's degrees. And so there's a lot of concern about what that could mean for American competitiveness and innovation moving forward.

[Sarah Holder]

And another blow to science and to research generally has been these reductions in federal research funding. I'm wondering, Liam, how much have these institutions historically relied on federal funding to sustain their research programs? And what's changing now, specifically in technology,

[Liam Knox]

specifically in medicine, the amount of funding from the National Institutes of Health or the National Science foundation flowing to universities that creates these pools of research money that is, you know, half the draw for students, right? You go and you get a master's degree in some biomedical science field. And half of what you expect to be able to do is work with your hands in a lab, is have the resources to pursue exciting new research with groundbreaking areas. And if federal support for that starts plummeting as it has been, or if even there's uncertainty around it, as there certainly is, that's going to have an effect on students appetite for those kinds of programs. And it's also just going to have a big effect on universities ability to provide the same kind of value and education as they had before.

[Sarah Holder]

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also placing strict borrowing limits on federal student loans for grad school, in what Secretary of education Linda McMahon has said is an effort to pressure universities to lower the costs of their programs.

[Liam Knox]

Every single master's program relies disproportionately on federal lending to fund students tuition. It used to be that you could borrow unlimited amounts of money from the federal government to pay for your grad program. Now there is a $20,000 a year cap on almost all grad programs. There's an additional cap for some programs that have been categorized as professional. So that includes law school, medical school, a couple of other things. They have a higher cap of 50,000 a year.

[Sarah Holder]

Liam says those types of professional programs tend to be more expensive. So even with a higher cap, loans are unlikely to cover the full cost of tuition anymore.

[Liam Knox]

Students are going to have to turn to other sources to try to fill the gap, including private lenders, which are starting to create new lending products to try to enter this space, but which have much less forgiving repayment options and are unlikely to be dispersed to students pursuing expensive degrees in fields that have low income outcomes.

[Public.com / Hartford Advertiser]

Right.

[Liam Knox]

So like social work, teaching, nursing, these are really high need areas where students are extremely dependent on federal lending to pursue their degrees and which often have more forgiving repayment options on the back end, in part because these, these are seen as a public good and that's not going to be around anymore. And the US has already pretty bad workforce shortages in nursing and teaching especially, and these caps are going to exacerbate that issue.

[Sarah Holder]

I mean, it's worth noting though, that student debt is a real issue in this country, right? Graduate programs make up 40% of the $1.7 trillion Americans owe in federal student debt. Is the counterpoint that the issue here is really the cost of these programs, not the loan caps?

[Liam Knox]

It's a great point, and it's the justification behind the Trump administration's and congressional Republicans efforts to cap these loans. They say that it's going to push colleges to drive down their tuition prices. They say that it's the only way to stop higher education from leaning on the federal government to continue jacking up prices for American families. The reality is that that's not really how the higher ed market works. Not a lot of students pay full sticker costs for undergraduate degrees. A lot of colleges, even if they charge 80, $90,000 a year sticker price for tuition, are struggling financially. And so taking away the ability to fund these master's programs, the actual effects are very unclear. And so far, very few colleges have given any indication that what they're going to do in response is lower their costs.

[Sarah Holder]

Coming up, we hear from a university administrator about how his school is navigating these challenges and how the decline in graduate enrollment could lead to a great shrinking of American universities.

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[Sarah Holder]

Stevens Institute of Technology sits on the Hudson river in Hoboken, New Jersey, with a view of the Manhattan skyline. Stevens dates back to 1870, and like many private research universities, it's invested heavily in its graduate programs in recent decades. Between 2013 and 2022, Stephens grad school enrollment more than doubled.

[Rob Towner]

It's almost a 5050 split grad students to undergrad students, or at least was recently before some of the changes that took place here.

[Sarah Holder]

That's Rob Towner, the chief business officer for the school's College of Professional Education, a new initiative Stevens launched a few years ago. Rob started last year and was hired in part to find new ways to bring in business as the school saw traditional revenue streams drying up.

[Rob Towner]

So it's no surprise that Stevens, like many institutions, has faced enrollment challenges from international graduate students. International students, whether it's here at Stevens or other institutions, tend to be full pay students and tend to be a large amount of revenue that comes into a university. We had to figure out ways to plug that gap, going after new markets that were not addressed before.

[Sarah Holder]

One approach Stevens has taken is leaning into online degree offerings, which are easier to scale. It's also launching more targeted certificate programs, which for students are shorter commitments than a master's degree.

[Rob Towner]

People don't have the kind of money they used to have to go afford to go to grad school. On top of that, there's a obvious debate and conversation in this country of is higher ed worth it? When you're asking people, hey, two to three years from now when you finish this degree, what is your job role going to look like with AI? There's a lot of uncertainty there for a lot of roles in what we're trying to do with these shorter form credentials is say you don't need to commit the next two to three years, just come grab one of these short form certs, do that and then come back to us later on if you need another certain another and stack it to a degree, whatever it might be.

[Sarah Holder]

And as students face new federal borrowing caps, Stephen's has adjusted tuition for its online offerings accordingly. It's cut the cost of its online MBA degree in half. Now students pay as little as $36,000 for a two year online degree. That helps the federal loans go farther.

[Rob Towner]

So over the two years you would have more than enough cushion to be able to use the 20,500 to fund that.

[Sarah Holder]

Stevens isn't alone. Purdue and UC Irvine have slashed the costs of some of their MBA programs too. But Liam says it's been more common to see universities shrink their offerings than their tuition.

[Liam Knox]

Almost every major university, from research institutions to technical institutes to small colleges, are looking into short term AI credential programs or other kind of emerging fields, but not one to two year master's degrees where the student comes onto campus and lives there and works in a lab. Often they're online. Sometimes there's a hybrid component. And there's a lot of investment in what a lot of higher education leaders say is the future of advanced education in this country, which is these stacked skills. What all of this means potentially is the shrinking of the American college. You've already started to see a lot of universities, you know, sell off parts of their campuses, try to kind of downsize.

[Sarah Holder]

Are we seeing layoffs at universities?

[Liam Knox]

We are certainly seeing layoffs at universities. We've been seeing layoffs for a couple of years, but they're really exploding now. I talked to the president of Portland State University. They offer a lot of social work degrees. They have a lot of international students. They actually train more than half of the social workers in the state of Oregon, and they're laying off staff. The cuts there are very painful to faculty and to students. And that's happening all across the country. And in part, that's a response in some ways to market forces to American families being less willing to pay the astronomical costs of colleges, to kind of the changing demands of a workforce increasingly shaped by rapidly evolving technology that colleges are struggling to keep up with. But in large part it's also because of what's happened over the past year under the Trump administration, And just the intensification of those pressures has put a lot of colleges into crisis mode.

[Sarah Holder]

I'm wondering, are there any people within the academic universe who say, you know, this was a bubble that was bound to burst, and we do need to take a hard look at our budgets, our finances, our reliance on federal student loans, and create like a healthier atmosphere and a healthier long term path for the sake of the future of academia.

[Liam Knox]

They certainly would. That's a huge contingent among academics themselves. I know based on my conversations with many of them, that they would take issue with the way it's being pursued. But there is a real frustration with how universities have operated as businesses over the past many decades, with how they've treated costs, with how they've put more and more money into more and more expensive programs, more and more amenities and new campus buildings and new everything. And there's this idea of the ever growing American university that has been a real sore spot for not just Republicans in Washington, but academics across the country who see it as unsustainable and who are afraid of a kind of backlash which is coming now.

[Sarah Holder]

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer if you like this episode, make sure to subscribe and review the Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts, it helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

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