How US Troops Could Go About Taking Hormuz

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "How US Troops Could Go About Taking Hormuz"

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg/iHeartPodcasts)
Date: March 27, 2026
Host: David Gura
Guest: Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Bloomberg Opinion columnist

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Overview of the Episode

This episode examines how the conflict between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz might escalate militarily, and what the deployment of thousands more US troops to the Middle East signals about US strategy. Retired Admiral James Stavridis offers a frank, experienced assessment of military options, potential consequences, and diplomatic challenges in reopening the Strait—a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas.

Admiral Stavridis shares his operational insights and draws on historical precedent, with a clear-eyed look at both the risks of escalation and opportunities for negotiation. The episode is rich in strategic analysis, sober caution regarding "forever wars," and pragmatic advice for US policymakers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of the Conflict and Stakes for the US and Iran

[01:48–04:25]

• The war in Iran has reached the four-week mark, with heavy casualties and thousands of airstrikes.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, causing a global spike in energy prices.
• President Trump has threatened further military escalation, specifically strikes on Iranian energy sites, unless demands are met.
• Both sides are under intense pressure:
  • For the US, rising gas prices, escalating costs, fading public support, and the looming presidential election.
  • For Iran, the destruction of military and economic infrastructure.

Notable Quote:

“There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's ticking is in Washington…It's the election in November…And for Iran, the clock here is their infrastructure…That clock strikes midnight in probably three to four weeks.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [02:57]

• Stavridis estimates a 65% chance of a negotiated resolution, but warns the chance of Iran holding out and further escalation is “uncomfortably high” at about 35%. [03:46]

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2. Lessons from the Past: The Challenge of Securing the Strait

[05:09–06:08]

• Stavridis reflects on his experience in the 1980s escorting ships through the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq War.
• Unlike then, current threats include drones and much more sophisticated Iranian capabilities.
• Diplomatic solutions are preferable, but the US cannot allow Iran to control the Strait.

Notable Quote:

"It’s navigationally challenging. And to do it under Iranian fire, as we did in the 1980s, is doubly challenging... A key thing to remember is they did not have drones then.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [05:09]

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3. Deployment of US Troops: Intent and Strategic Aims

[06:08–07:20]

• Recent deployment: 7,000 additional troops, including two Marine Expeditionary Units, signaling both pressure and credible military threat.
• The deployment isn't about conquering Iran, but about having precise options to press negotiations.

Notable Quote:

“President Trump wants those troops to kind of hold them like a hammer over the head of the Iranians and threaten actually seizing Carg island…Not only am I bombing broadly across...Iran, but I also have precise boots-on-the-ground options.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [06:31]

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4. How To Take Kharg Island: Play-by-Play of a Hypothetical Operation

[07:29–10:13]

• Detailed hypothetical stages for military action to seize Kharg Island (Iran's main oil export terminal):
  • Navigating through the heavily contested Strait; facing mines, missiles, drones, small boats.
  • 350-mile journey under persistent threat to reach Kharg.
  • Marines land via air and sea, with air/naval cover, possibly facing civilians and entrenched Iranian defenders.
  • Risk of booby traps, landmines, drones, and urban-type conflict.
• Stavridis suggests a naval blockade might be a smarter, less risky option than attempting a full-on amphibious landing.

Notable Quote:

"It’s kind of easy for me to sit here and say it, but to execute that mission will be costly in terms of lives and equipment. Final point: if I were advising the administration, I would say maybe a better idea, blockade the island…"
— Admiral James Stavridis [09:56]

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5. Other Military Options & The Risks of Escalation

[10:19–12:38]

• Other possible US military targets:

  • Larak Island (controls the northern Strait)
  • Abu Musa and Greater/ Lesser Tunbs (disputed islands at the Strait's entrance)
  • A deep operation to seize Iranian nuclear material near Isfahan (would be the largest special forces op in history).

• Stavridis reiterates his preference for a diplomatic solution but underscores the need for credible military power to bolster negotiations.

Notable Quote:

“I want to say I'm not advocating those missions…I firmly believe we need to get to a diplomatic resolution here. But soft power without the ability to apply hard power is no power.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [12:13]

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6. Military Pathways to Reopen the Strait: Practical Realities

[12:38–14:34]

• The “theory of the case” is that taking or blockading Kharg Island would provide strong leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait.
• Iran hasn’t "hard closed" the Strait; rather, it’s maintained significant threat (mines, drone attacks on shipping), creating room for negotiation.
• If forced to reopen militarily, the US would need significant resources: minesweepers, guided missile ships, special forces—but full clearance would be dangerous and costly.
• Achieving this safely would require air supremacy and reduction of Iranian capabilities in the area.

Notable Quotes:

“If...we have to militarily open the strait, you need more minesweepers...guided missile frigates...special forces on small boats...But again, it'll be costly. It would be far better that we got to a negotiation here.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [13:28]

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7. The Role of NATO and US Allies

[18:06–21:25]

• The Trump administration has had a rocky relationship with NATO and European allies; initial support waned during the “Greenland episode” and recent Gulf build-up.
• The US could focus on offensive and direct military operations, while requesting European naval and technical support for reopening the Strait (e.g., minesweepers, frigates, destroyers).

Notable Quote:

“Don’t tell me NATO hasn’t stood with us in combat. Now we come to the current moment… I think President Trump would be wise to say to the Europeans... We need you to help open the Strait of Hormuz. I think Europe would take that mission gladly.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [19:57]

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8. Military Buildup Without War: Precedents and Cautions

[21:25–22:42]

• Discussion about whether such a large show of force has ever been deployed and not used in modern history.
• The 2003 Iraq invasion haunts the current moment; Stavridis warns against “forever wars.”

Notable Quote:

“To me, that's the cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we desperately must avoid.”
— Admiral James Stavridis [21:54]

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Memorable Quotes – At-a-Glance

"There are two clocks ticking right now... one for the Trump administration... and one for Iran, the clock here is their infrastructure."
— Stavridis [02:57]

"You cannot cede control of [the strait] to this rotten theocracy in Tehran."
— Stavridis [05:09]

“It’s kind of easy for me to sit here and say it, but to execute that mission will be costly in terms of lives and equipment.”
— Stavridis [09:56]

“Soft power without the ability to apply hard power is no power.”
— Stavridis [12:28]

"Don’t tell me NATO hasn’t stood with us in combat."
— Stavridis [19:37]

"To me, that's the cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we desperately must avoid."
— Stavridis [21:54]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:48] — Setting the stage: current conflict, casualties, and stakes
• [02:57] — “Two clocks ticking”: political and military pressures on US and Iran
• [05:09] — Personal reflection: escorting tankers in the 1980s and lessons for today
• [06:31] — Analysis of recent troop deployments and strategic messaging
• [07:29] — Step-by-step scenario: how to seize Kharg Island—and alternative strategies
• [10:19] — Other military options in the region and risks of escalation
• [12:38] — How (and whether) military options might reopen the Strait
• [13:28] — What military force would be required; the risks of clearing the way militarily
• [18:06] — The strained relationship with NATO, and how US allies might actually help
• [21:25] — Risks of large military buildups going unused, and lessons from history

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering, detail-rich look at the balance between military leverage and diplomatic necessity in one of the globe’s most volatile geopolitical flashpoints. Admiral Stavridis’s blend of operational know-how, historical perspective, and candid skepticism about open-ended wars provides essential context for understanding the options—and perils—facing US decision-makers as the Strait of Hormuz crisis unfolds.

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Transcript

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[David Gura]

the war in Iran is four weeks old. The US has deployed tens of billions of dollars of munitions in thousands of strikes, and more than 4,500 people have been killed in the conflict. That's according to governments and non government agencies. And despite 10 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, in what President Trump has described as a gesture of goodwill, the Strait remains effectively shut, choking off roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas, which has sent energy prices soaring. President Trump has threatened to strike Iranian energy sites if the country doesn't come to terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And he's issued a deadline that he's now pushed back twice to game out how the conflict could unfold from here. I reached out to someone who is no stranger to high stakes military decisions, retired Admiral James Stavridis, who's also a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is, among other things, the longest serving combatant commander in recent US history and the co author of a series of novels. The latest, 2084, will be published in May. And Admiral Stavridis sees the pressure rising on both sides to make a deal.

[Admiral James Stavridis]

There are two clocks ticking right now. One clock that's ticking is in Washington, and it's for the Trump administration. It's the gas prices, and it's the cost of doing this. It's the public support, and it's November. It's the election in November. So that clock is ticking, and certainly it strikes midnight pretty soon. And for Iran, the clock here is their infrastructure. How much of their military do we destroy? How much of their defense industrial base? How much of their oil? How much of their electric grid? That clock strikes midnight in probably three to four weeks.

[David Gura]

He says both countries have good reason to come to the table, but that's far from a guarantee.

[Admiral James Stavridis]

I think there's a 2 in 3 chance. We get to a negotiated conclusion, call it 65%. But the bad news is, and this is uncomfortably high, 1 in 3 chance, therefore, a 35% chance that the Iranians do not follow the logic of this situation, decide they want to keep fighting. We keep bombing. We then go after their critical infrastructure. They go after Gulf Arab critical infrastructure. Then we have a much more serious global economic challenge ahead.

[David Gura]

I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News today. On the show, retired Admiral James Tavridis on how sending thousands more U.S. troops troops to the Middle east changes the chances of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war and raises the risks. Admiral Stravitas, you were the head of U.S. southern Command, U.S. european Command, and from 2009 to 2013, you were supreme allied commander of NATO. But before all of that, back in the 1980s, you spent some time as a young sailor helping ships make their way through the Persian Gulf. So before we get into the details of US Strategy and options in this particular war, I'm curious how that time in your life shapes the way that you're thinking about this conflict.

[Admiral James Stavridis]

It does, immensely. And that's a smart question. This was in the late 1980s, and we were escorting Kuwaiti tankers, which were flagged to the United States through the strait. This is during the Iran Iraq War, when the Iranians again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Two takeaways that continue to rattle around in this grizzled old admiral's brain. One is it's hard. It's navigationally challenging. And to do it under Iranian fire, as we did in the 1980s, is doubly challenging. But a Key thing to remember is they did not have drones. Then. Number two, you have to open the strait. You cannot cede control of it to this rotten theocracy in Tehran. So how we get there, I hope we can do it diplomatically, but if necessary, see paragraph one. We will open that strait.

[David Gura]

In recent weeks, the US has ordered some 7,000 more troops to the Middle East. Around 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne, 5,000 troops from two Marine Expeditionary Units. The 31st, which deployed from Okinawa, should arrive in the coming days. The 11th MEU will be in the region in three to four weeks. What does the decision to send those troops indicate to you about the broader objective here that the US has at this point?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

My supposition is that President Trump wants those troops to kind of hold them like a hammer over the head of the Iranians and threaten actually seizing Carg island, which, as you know, David, is 90% of the Iranian oil flows through it. You really put a stake in the heart of the Iranian oil based economy. So President Trump is signaling to the Iranians. Not only am I bombing broadly across the entire vast nation of Iran, but I also have precise boots on the ground options. 7000 troops is not a huge force. They're not going to conquer Iran. But. But you could use them in precise ways to try and move the negotiation along.

[David Gura]

Could you walk us through what the stages of a mission to take Carg island would look like and maybe give us your sense of what the US could stand to gain or lose by undertaking a mission like that?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

Sure. Let's go back to those Marines at sea. The first tranche of them, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit have arrived just outside of the Strait of Fort Moos. They got to get through the strait, which the Iranians will oppose deeply. That's they got to get through mines, ballistic missiles, small boats, above all the drones. Once they get through that now they still, David, have 350 miles to go to get up to Kharg island in that stretch of water. Iran will continue to attack them. I could see terrorist attacks against them from small Iranian, supposedly civilian craft, more drone attacks. Now you're off the coast of Carg Island. So here you depend on Central command air cover to make sure there's a bubble over you in effect and at the sea, the fifth Fleet is protecting you. Now those Marines will get on Osprey aircraft. They're kind of in between a plane and a helicopter. They'll start going ashore by air. There'll be some seaborne component of them. You bring them ashore At a relatively undefended corner of this island. Kharg is about a third of the size of Manhattan. You pick a couple of points. Bring in the marines, seize the base. Now they're locked down in a well known place and it's within artillery range of the Iranian coast itself. And they're 20,000, maybe 30,000 Iranians on the island that you have to control. Most of them are civilian oil workers who just want to stay out of the line of fire. They have no interest in getting in the crossfire between U.S. marines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If I'm Tehran right now, I'm increasing my forces on the island. I'm putting booby traps in place, putting landmines at the places where I think you might land. I'm putting drones overhead, very small ones, so I can maintain surveillance. So they're preparing for this. It's a very challenging mission. It's kind of easy for me to sit here and say it, but to execute that mission will be costly in terms of lives and equipment. Final point, if I were advising the administration, I would say maybe a better idea, blockade the island. Have the fifth Fleet just shut it down. Tell the world, don't bother going to Kharg island, it's no longer open for business. Tell the Iranians you can do all you want with the oil that's stored there, but it's not leaving Carg Island. I think that might make more sense.

[David Gura]

What else might be on the table for the US as they think about where they might deploy troops in this region?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

I'll give you three other options that kind of pop into my head. One is the island of Larocque right at the very northern tip of the Strait of Hormuz. And Laraque is very important because controls the top of the strait. It's heavily defended. But seizing that I think would, would have some military utility. A second one is there are a pair of islands that are claimed by both Iran and the uae. This is Abamousa island and Toomb also in that vicinity. So if you took those islands, you'd have land right at the top of the strait that would help you defend it and keep it open. But if you really want to lock down the strait, you got to control both sides of it, both the Arab side and the Persian side. And then third, and actually more dangerous than anything we've talked about, would be going into Iran, deeply into Iran, and going after the nuclear material that they have. They have 900 pounds, maybe a thousand pounds of enriched uranium. It's not quite Weapons grade, but it's very close to it. Where is it? It's at the bottom of, supposedly of Isfahan under concrete. You'd have to have a thousand plus troops to defend the area, put up all the air cover, and then have the seals and the Green Berets with, wait for it, civilian technicians who know how to manage all this. It is a very difficult mission. It would be literally the largest special forces operation in history. I want to say I'm not advocating those missions. I firmly believe we need to get to a diplomatic resolution here. But, you know, soft power without the ability to apply hard power is no power. So move the forces, set the table, and then go to the Iranians and say, look, we really want to settle this at a negotiating table, not on Carg Island.

[David Gura]

I want to shift to opening up the strait. And you've laid out ways in which the US could take over Carg island, other islands? Do those military options do much to hasten the process of getting oil flowing once again? Just draw the line for me from doing that to effectively opening up this strait once again.

[Admiral James Stavridis]

The theory of the case is that by holding hostage this 90% of the Iranian oil, we could then go to the Iranians and say, carg Island. Nice little operation you got going here, boy. It'd be a shame if we had to blow it all up. How about if we go ahead and open the straits and then we can have a conversation. Let's get to a very simple deal at this point. We stop bombing, you open the strait.

[David Gura]

And what would that take?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

Let's start by observing that what Iran has done is they have not hard closed the strait. They have virtually closed the strait. And they've done that by blowing up a handful of tankers, saying any other tankers we don't like, we're going to blow up with drones. They put some smart mines in the water that they have control over, but they haven't really hard closed it. I think it's worth noting they haven't done that, which means there's still room to maneuver here. And I would say that if we were to fail diplomatically and have to militarily open the strait, you need more minesweepers to be on station, prepared. You need more guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers to protect shipping going in and out. You need special forces on small boats to counter the Iranian small boats. You need to destroy more of the Iranian attack capability along the littoral of the strait itself. But again, it'll be costly. It would be far better that we got to a negotiation here.

[David Gura]

Is it possible to do that kind of clearing that you just described militarily while fighting is still underway, or does the fighting have to cease?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

Effectively? Fighting has to cease as follows. You have to bring complete air superiority over that particular area, meaning you've got to be able to stop the drones. You have to go after the longer range Iranian capabilities. By the way, there happens to be an admiral in overall command of the mission, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Central Command. That's what Admiral Cooper is doing right now, and I think the Iranians are cognizant of that as well.

[David Gura]

Retired Admiral James Stavridis was the supreme Allied Commander of NATO. After the break, his thoughts on what role the alliance could play in helping to reopen the strait.

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

Oh my God.

[David Gura]

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

Right now we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our

[David Gura]

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

That's all in the New Yorker Radio Hour. Wherever you listen to podcasts,

[David Gura]

You've had a lot of big jobs. You served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander. You've spoken passionately about the importance of that NATO alliance. This is what the President posted on social media on Thursday morning. NATO nations have done absolutely nothing to help with the lunatic nation now militarily decimated of Iran. The USA needs nothing from NATO. But never forget this very important point in time. Over the last few weeks, we've heard the President disparage long standing US Allies, then call for their help, then criticize them once again. How do you see this conflict, the Iran war, impacting relationships between the US and its allies, many of which were already under strain?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

We've been under kind of a roller coaster with NATO since Trump came back into office. The good news is NATO has been gradually increasing defense spending from, you know, kind of sub 2%. Now NATO's pushing up to 3.5%, maybe 4%, depending on how you score it. So that's a positive event. On the other hand, the Greenland episode where the United States appeared to really lean in, talk about the 82nd Airborne. I saw actual tweets from people saying, yeah, the 80 seconds on their way to Nook, Greenland. That really rattled Europe's confidence in the United States. And by the way, I think the Danes would have fought, they would have blown up those runways, they would have put Special forces there. That was a pretty dangerous moment for the alliance. That was kind of a trough. Now we're kind of, we've come back out of that, but now we have the current crisis in the Gulf. And so for the Europeans, as you assess their behavior, you need to kind of put it through the filter of how they've been treated in Trump 1 and in Trump 2, we tend to not remember this in the United States somehow, but I commanded a mission in Afghanistan for four years. We were fighting in Afghanistan because we were attacked in New York and in Washington, D.C. thousands of Americans were killed. We went to war. And who came with us? The Europeans. And they fought and died in great numbers. So don't tell me NATO hasn't stood with us in combat. Now we come to the current moment. By the way, President Trump tends to use the word NATO. He really means the European Union more than anything else, but he means the nations of Europe. I think President Trump would be wise to say to the Europeans, look, we've got the offensive part of this. We're going to do the bombing. We will put the troops on the ground if necessary. Israelis are going to do the bombing. Europe, here's what we need. We need mine sweepers, we need guided missile frigates. We need guided missile destroyers. We need you to help open the Strait of Hormuz. I think Europe would take that mission gladly. And Mark Rute, the Secretary General of NATO, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, know him well. He's kind of nudging the European allies in that direction.

[David Gura]

I'm genuinely curious if there's been a moment in history where we've seen this much military might brought to an area and not used. I think of the conversation that was happening around Venezuela ahead of the capture of Nicolas Maduro. But there's an awful lot of equipment and personnel being brought to the Middle east now. I think of Chekhov's gun. If you see the gun, it has to be fired. As you think about history, have there been moments when there has been this much, again, military might marshaled and not used in the end?

[Admiral James Stavridis]

Not that immediately leaps to mind. You should ask Claude that question. But I think that what is germane is about 25 years ago, we marshaled this level of forces off of Iraq and we did invade and we were at war for 20 years. To me, that's the cautionary tale here. It's the forever wars. That's what we desperately must avoid. I think we will again. I think we will either negotiate or if we have to have boots on the ground, they'll be used in a precise, directed, military way. But let's remember 25 years ago, we attacked Iraq 23 years ago, I suppose, and that experience was not the best for the United States.

[David Gura]

This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. The show is hosted by me, Sarah Holder and Juan Hannah. The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grocott, Eleanor Harrison Dengate, Paddy Hirsch, Rachel Lewis Christie, Katie McMurran, Naomi Ng, Julia Press, Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Shaven, Alex Segura, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang, and Taka Yasuzawa. There's Much more on Bloomberg.com get unlimited access to all of our coverage at a special rate for [e-mail] podcastoffer thanks for listening. We'll be back on Monday.

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[Admiral James Stavridis]

I don't think that's true.

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