Big Take Podcast — "Is Apple Winning the ‘AI Scare Trade’?"
Date: February 25, 2026
Host: Sarah Holder (Bloomberg News)
Guests: Ryan Vlastilica (Bloomberg Tech Stocks Reporter), Mark Gurman (Bloomberg Apple Reporter)
Episode Overview
This episode delves into how Apple has become uniquely insulated from recent AI-driven market upheavals. As investor anxiety rises over AI disruption and colossal spending from big tech firms, Apple’s stock behavior has decoupled from its tech peers on the Nasdaq. The podcast explores why Apple is seen as a safe harbor during the so-called "AI scare trade," how this position came about, and what it signals for Apple’s future in AI.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The "AI Scare Trade" Fuels Market Volatility
- Context: Investors are spooked by fears that AI could disrupt entire business lines, especially after a thought experiment by Citrini Research imagined AI upending retail payment routing, impacting firms like Amex, Synchrony, and Capital One.
- Market Mood: Mass sell-offs hit sectors seen as vulnerable to AI. Even established names like IBM took a hit when Anthropic’s AI model announced updates targeting legacy tech (03:07).
"The market is just taking a look around at any possible sector that could be disrupted by AI, selling first, asking questions later."
— D (01:58)
2. Apple Is Oddly Insulated — Decoupling from Tech Peers
- Observations: Unlike other tech giants—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon—Apple isn’t spending billions on AI infrastructure or at risk of core business disruption.
- Stock Behavior:
- As most of the Nasdaq trends downward amid AI anxiety, Apple’s stock often moves up or is unaffected.
- Apple’s correlation with the NASDAQ 100 hit a near two-decade low, with a 40-day average correlation of just 0.21 in early February—the lowest since 2006 (07:14).
"Apple is basically no correlation at all, which means it's not really moving on the major themes that are driving the overall index."
— Ryan Vlastilica (07:25)
3. Why Apple Is "Missing" from AI Fear Narratives
- Not in AI CapEx Race: Apple isn’t spending aggressively like hyperscalers.
- Not Facing AI Disruption: Its core (hardware + embedded AI) is not immediately threatened—unlike software-driven firms.
"It doesn't really seem like Apple is really in the path of AI disruption in the same way that you would say software companies are or a just growing list of companies and sectors are."
— Ryan Vlastilica (04:01)
- Investor View: Apple is a neutral play—people will keep buying iPhones and accessing AI via their devices, no matter which company leads in AI software.
"If you are still optimistic about the potential of AI, Apple isn't a terrible way to play that thesis...No one is out there coding a new iPhone for themselves."
— Ryan Vlastilica (08:08)
4. Is Apple Winning by Accident?
- The "Bradbury" Analogy: Mark Gurman uses the 2002 Winter Olympic skating story—where Australia’s Steven Bradbury won by simply avoiding crashes—as a metaphor for Apple "winning" by lagging behind in AI.
- Missteps & Missed Opportunities:
- Apple fell behind on AI, not by design but by missing opportunities and failed attempts to catch up.
- Apple passed on acquiring emerging AI leaders (Mistral, Perplexity), now partnering with Google to use Gemini for new AI models.
"The reality is is that Apple was caught flat footed and so yes, they're getting the benefit on the stock right now because of that, but that's not a good thing for the long term business being so behind in a core technology. And we're talking about the core technology of all core technologies here."
— Mark Gurman (13:04)
- Investors' Reaction: Paradoxically, Apple’s lag is being rewarded due to lack of risk—but this may be dangerous in the long run.
5. Apple's Unique AI Strategy: Hardware Over Software
- AI Investments:
- Upcoming hardware products include:
- AirPods with cameras
- Smart glasses with cameras
- Necklace pendants with visual intelligence, all feeding data to Siri
- Focus is on AI hardware — since 80% of Apple’s revenue comes from products, not software.
- New versions of Siri and an Apple chatbot are in development, but running late (chatbot expected at end of 2026).
- Upcoming hardware products include:
"Apple intelligence lags behind the competition significantly....They're not going to launch their first chatbot until the tail end of this year. So they're definitely behind by any, any metric. And trust me, it wasn't supposed to be this way."
— Mark Gurman (14:09)
"The only way they're going to be able to monetize AI to any considerable degree for the underlying business is going to be through hardware."
— Mark Gurman (17:51)
6. The Future: Is Apple Still a Safe Bet?
- Diversification Tool:
- Investors prize Apple’s lack of direct exposure to AI risk, seeing it as a portfolio hedge.
- Long-term Questions:
- If AI’s promise materializes fully, Apple could get left behind if it doesn’t catch up on core AI capabilities and monetization.
- For now, Apple’s strong hardware sales and brand insulate it, but upside from AI is limited compared to peers.
"Everyone knows they're going to continue making a ton of money on the devices and but in terms of future upside, it's just not exciting to investors right now, in my view."
— Mark Gurman (18:32)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Apple’s decoupling:
"We've been describing this as Apple decoupling itself from the broader market."
— Ryan Vlastilica (04:35) -
On Apple’s AI lag:
"If you asked Apple six months ago, would you like to be an AI company at the forefront or not, they would say yes, but they're extremely behind. Not on purpose, but by accident."
— Mark Gurman (05:18) -
The ‘Bradbury’ Winner:
"With Apple getting investor love for effectively being behind in AI, is the company doing a Bradbury?"
— Sarah Holder (12:51)"They fell backwards into it because the plan certainly wasn't for them to do a Bradbury."
— Mark Gurman (13:04)
Key Timestamps
- 01:46 — Opening on "AI scare trade" and market jitters
- 03:07 — Anthropic Claude update knocks IBM stock
- 04:01 — Apple’s insulation from AI investment and disruption themes
- 07:14 — Statistical evidence of Apple’s decoupling from the Nasdaq
- 08:08 — Apple as AI-adjacent play and ‘no one coding a new iPhone’
- 12:51 — The Bradbury analogy: winning by lagging
- 13:04–15:17 — Gurman on Apple’s failed AI strategy and investor misperceptions
- 16:41–17:22 — Apple’s future AI hardware (AirPods, smart glasses, pendant)
- 17:51–18:32 — Why Apple’s AI upside is mostly hardware and may not excite investors long-term
Conclusion
Main Takeaway:
Apple’s current stock surge amid AI fears is less about visionary strategy and more about accidental insulation. Investors see Apple as a safe haven: it’s not splurging on AI, nor is it exposed to AI’s disruptive risks (yet). However, experts warn this could leave Apple behind if AI is as transformative as predicted—unless Apple can execute on new hardware and catch up in AI features. In the meantime, Apple enjoys its “Bradbury moment,” but the long-term story is still unwritten.