Big Take: Is Water Infrastructure the Next Target in the Iran War?
Podcast: Big Take by Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts
Date: March 31, 2026
Host: Sarah Holder
Guest: Peter Martin (Bloomberg Defense & Intelligence Correspondent)
Overview of the Episode
This episode investigates the growing risk of water infrastructure, specifically desalination plants, becoming targets in the ongoing Iran War, and what that could mean for the Gulf region. Host Sarah Holder and Bloomberg's Peter Martin break down the critical reliance on desalination in the Middle East, the legal and humanitarian stakes, and the broader impacts of President Trump’s threats to attack this vulnerable infrastructure. The conversation covers both technical and geopolitical facets, highlighting the potential for a humanitarian and economic crisis should water supplies be interrupted during this conflict.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Context: The Iran War, Oil, and Water Infrastructure
- US Gas Prices Surge: Gas prices in the US surge post-conflict, with President Trump offering to sell oil or urging some countries to “go to the strait and just take it.” (01:40)
- Military and Diplomatic Tensions: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasizes ongoing diplomatic talks but affirms, “in the meantime, we'll negotiate with bombs.” (02:52)
- Unprecedented Threats: President Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s electricity generation, oil facilities, and desalination plants stands out as a dramatic escalation. (02:59–03:25)
2. Desalination: Vital and Vulnerable
- Dependence in the Gulf: Gulf states like UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait rely on desalination for 40%, 70%, and 90% of their water respectively. (05:10)
- No Real Alternatives: Limited fresh water, short-lived underground reserves; desalination is the only sustainable long-term source. (05:49)
- Peter Martin: “There is no alternative in most of the Gulf countries.” (05:49)
- Tech Evolution: Two main desalination techniques discussed—thermal (older, heating & evaporation) and reverse osmosis (dominant, pressure and membranes). (06:14)
- Tied to Energy Infrastructure: Desalination’s high energy demands often make plants co-located with power plants—making them doubly exposed as strategic targets. (07:30)
- Peter Martin: “Desalinated water [in the Gulf] is about 25 times more expensive than other sources…but the region’s oil brings down some of those costs.” (07:30)
3. Vulnerabilities Beyond the Gulf
- Israel’s Reliance: About 70% of water is desalinated; Israel has better infrastructure and backup sources, so risk is less existential. (08:09–08:38)
- Iran’s Situation: Iran has some desalination and droughts, but ample rivers and seasonal fresh water—less vulnerable than Gulf neighbors. (09:20)
4. Precedent and Legalities
- International Law: Targeting infrastructure vital for civilians, like desalination, is a violation of the Geneva Convention—a war crime. (13:24, 16:23)
- Peter Martin: “It’s illegal to target them because they’re necessary for civilians to survive.” (12:35)
- Historical Example: In the first Gulf War, Iraq targeted Kuwait’s desalination, creating temporary shortages addressed via Saudi and US assistance, but such stopgaps can only last so long. (13:35)
- Restoration Timelines: Minor damage repair takes weeks to months; major repairs could take years. (14:08)
5. Humanitarian and Economic Stakes
- Immediate Impacts: Water shortages could hit households within days, trigger rationing, commercial restrictions, bottled water distribution, and possibly evacuations. (14:27)
- Peter Martin: “Households would begin to run short on water... within a matter of days.” (14:27)
- Economic Collapse Risk: Service, finance, and tourism-dependent economies (e.g., Dubai) would “come grinding to a halt” without water. (15:03)
- Protection Measures: Desalination plants are “large, exposed, fragile.” Air defenses are in place, but “there’s not really much that they can do to protect the facilities.” (15:44)
- Peter Martin: “Lots [of missiles] are still getting through, and there’s not really much that can be done to harden them...” (15:44)
6. Risks of Escalation
- War Crimes and International Outcry: Direct US strikes could prompt international outrage and further question the US’s legal positioning, but practical consequences uncertain amid “outrage fatigue.” (16:23–17:14)
- Accidental Strikes and Escalation: Given how closely desalination and energy plants are linked, collateral damage is a real risk—potentially triggering escalation as it may be hard to convince the other side it was accidental. (17:35)
- Peter Martin: “Trust on both sides... is running pretty low at the moment... escalation [risk rises] quite considerably.” (17:35)
7. Real-Time Incidents and Retaliation
- Recent Example: Report of Iranian desalination plant on Qezem island damaged, affecting water for 30 villages; Iran and US dispute intent. Iran retaliated by hitting a Gulf desalination facility, stating further US attacks would be reciprocated. (18:05–18:32)
- Peter Martin: “Both sides have kind of put [strikes] in play, but so far... there’s been a reasonable degree of restraint... because the humanitarian consequences would be so grave.” (18:32)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Trump’s unconventional threats and tactics:
“It's something that no other president within living memory would have done. But that's been true of a lot of Trump's actions so far.”
— Peter Martin (04:01) -
On the centrality of desalination to modern Gulf life:
“Without [desalination], they wouldn't have the kind of tourism, service, financial industries that you see today.”
— Peter Martin (06:14) -
On the infeasibility of hardening desalination plants:
“They’re large, they’re exposed, they're quite technically fragile... there’s not really much that can be done to harden them.”
— Peter Martin (15:44) -
On the uncertainty of consequences if water infrastructure is targeted:
“I think the truth is that we don't know. We'd be entering uncharted territory.”
— Peter Martin (16:36) -
On the escalation risk of collateral damage:
“Trust on both sides in this war is running pretty low at the moment... it would be quite difficult... to convince the other that that kind of damage had been accidental.”
— Peter Martin (17:35) -
On restrained action so far:
“So far... there's been a reasonable degree of restraint between both sides. Precisely... because the humanitarian consequences would be so grave.”
— Peter Martin (18:32)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- US/Iran Escalation & Water Threats: 01:40–04:38
- Vital Role of Desalination in the Gulf: 05:10–06:14
- Desalination Technology Explained: 06:14–07:18
- Symbiotic Relationship with Energy Infrastructure: 07:30–08:09
- Vulnerabilities in Israel and Iran: 08:09–09:50
- Legal and Historic Precedents: 12:35–14:03
- Humanitarian and Economic Consequences: 14:19–15:29
- Defense & Hardening Limitations: 15:29–16:23
- Potential Legal & Geopolitical Fallout: 16:23–17:14
- Real-Time Example (Qezem Island): 18:05–18:32
Summary Takeaways
- The mounting tensions and open threats to target water infrastructure in the Iran War mark a dangerous new phase, with potential for mass humanitarian disaster in some of the world’s most water-stressed states.
- Modern life in the Gulf would be unsustainable without desalination; even brief shutdowns could have catastrophic outcomes for civilians and economies.
- Although international law prohibits attacks on such infrastructure, the fog and brutality of war, combined with blurred lines between energy and water targets, make accidental or intentional strikes perilously plausible.
- The episode concludes with warnings about the unpredictable path ahead, the fragility of these life-giving facilities, and the stakes for millions if water supply is weaponized in this conflict.