North Korea’s Nuclear Program Reaches Tipping Point for the US

Summary

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Big Take: North Korea’s Nuclear Program Reaches Tipping Point for the US

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts)
Host: Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)
Guest: John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)
Date: April 28, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode explores North Korea’s accelerating nuclear weapons program, examining how its technical progress and new alliances—especially with Russia—have altered the balance of power in Northeast Asia. Host Wan Ha and North Korea expert John Herskovitz break down recent missile tests, assess the country’s nuclear capabilities, and discuss what these developments mean for U.S. defense strategy and international diplomacy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. North Korea’s Recent Missile Activity and Strategic Messaging

• Multiple Missile Tests: In 2026 alone, North Korea has conducted seven ballistic missile tests, some personally overseen by Kim Jong Un and, notably, his daughter (02:15–02:39).
• Dual Purpose Tests:
  • Demonstration for Overseas Buyers: North Korea is "supplying these missiles to Russia," showcasing their versatility and operational readiness (03:06–03:14).
  • Signal to the U.S.: The tests are also warnings to the U.S.—"We know what [your defense systems] are, and we’re rolling out these systems, trying to defeat them" (03:26–03:47).

2. What Counts as 'Nuclear Capability'?

• Three Main Components:
  • Fissile Material (plutonium, highly enriched uranium)
  • Warheads (nuclear bombs miniaturized for delivery)
  • Delivery Systems (ballistic missiles, bombers, artillery shells)
  • North Korea produces all three, with delivery systems ranging from short-range missiles (for South Korea/Japan) to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) targeting the U.S. (04:26–05:26).

3. Size and Growth of North Korea’s Arsenal

• Changing Hierarchy: North Korea, historically at the bottom of the global nuclear list, is "on a trajectory" to match secondary nuclear powers like Britain, France, India, and Pakistan "over the next five to ten years" (05:54).
• Expanded Capabilities:
  • In the Trump era, production was around 6 bombs per year. Now, it’s up to "12 to 15, possibly 20 bombs’ worth of material per year," with a much-modernized missile and warhead arsenal (06:33–07:40).

4. How Has North Korea Advanced So Quickly?

• Self-sufficiency under Sanctions:
  • "The more [Kim Jong Un] can do at home, the better the system becomes."
  • Old missile tech is "available, ready for copying" and has evolved "especially under Kim" (07:52).
• From Recipient to Supplier:
  • In the Cold War, North Korea relied on Soviet support. "Now North Korea is supplying arms to Russia," a striking role reversal (07:52–09:17).

5. Estimating the True Size of North Korea’s Arsenal

• Best Available Data:
  • Estimates suggest "about 50 warheads" and fissile material for "90 bombs" (09:17).
  • Satellite imagery and released photos help experts "figure out how much uranium per year can be enriched at these sites" (09:35–10:49).

6. The U.S. Missile Defense Dilemma

• Tipping Point Reality:
  • North Korea may soon—or already—have more ICBMs than the U.S. has interceptors: "The U.S. has about 44 of these interceptors… North Korea is probably at about 24 ICBMs now and building them out" (11:07).
• Deterrence vs. Defense:
  • Even a small chance of overwhelming U.S. defenses raises new risks but, experts say, "If North Korea were to strike the U.S., this would be suicidal" due to overwhelming retaliation (12:52).

7. Technical Unknowns

• Re-entry Technology:
  • "We don’t know if North Korea has the reentry capability for its warheads"—a crucial component for ICBMs to reach the U.S., but "if a country can build an ICBM, they probably have the ability to have a reentry vehicle" (13:48–14:33).

8. Russia, Sanctions, and North Korea’s Economic Resurgence

• Weapons-for-Aid Exchange:
  • North Korea has sent "millions of artillery shells and artillery rockets" to Russia for the Ukraine war (19:10).
  • "In return… Russia has been sending back [aid worth] maybe $16–20 billion," the largest influx of foreign support in Kim Jong Un’s reign (19:48).
  • This has enabled a "building boom" and relative price stability, reducing U.S. sanctions' leverage (20:52–21:16).

9. Loss of U.S. Leverage and New Geopolitical Confidence

• Diminished U.S. Influence:
  • "There just isn’t much leverage that the U.S. has" while Russia and China provide substantial support. The nuclear program is central to the regime’s legitimacy (21:16–22:00).
• Shift in North Korean Diplomacy:
  • Pyongyang now demands recognition as a nuclear power and "equal billing at the table" in diplomacy, with less “deference” and less “reliance” on Trump and the U.S. than before (18:26).

10. North Korea’s Strategic Lessons from Global Conflicts

• Studying U.S. Military Tactics:
  • North Korea "has seen how the U.S. works strategically"—striking nuclear and missile sites first—and is adapting its deployment, air defense, and leadership protection accordingly (22:31–23:50).
• Nuclear Arsenal as "Sword and Shield":
  • The regime sees its arsenal as both defensive and offensive leverage, a stance reinforced by recent events in Iran and Venezuela (22:12–22:31).

11. What Now?: Policy Implications and Future Strategy

• Changing International Approaches:
  • Some experts argue for shifting from disarmament to "limitation, monitoring, getting a threshold and keeping the state there… like [U.S.-Russia] strategic arms limitation treaties" (24:01).
  • Official U.S. policy still seeks full denuclearization, but this is increasingly disconnected from reality (24:01–25:06).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"North Korea has been supplying these missiles to Russia. And the tests have varied to show the various ways that the missiles can be used."
— John Herskovitz (03:06)

"You have the message to the outside world that North Korea's missiles are abundant, deadly, and can do far more than imagined."
— John Herskovitz (03:26)

"North Korea is getting to a stage where it can produce more ICBMs than the U.S. has interceptors to take them down." — John Herskovitz (11:07)

"If North Korea were to strike the U.S., this would be suicidal... it would invite an absolutely massive retaliatory strike."
— John Herskovitz (12:52)

"Now North Korea is supplying arms to Russia. Things have changed." — John Herskovitz (08:53)

"There just isn't much leverage that the U.S. has."
— John Herskovitz (21:16)

"North Korea sees its nuclear arsenal as the sword and the shield, protecting the country and being able to inflict heavy blows on its opponents."
— John Herskovitz (22:12)

"Maybe we'll see a shift in thinking of the U.S. administration about how it treats North Korea. But at this time, the policy is getting rid of its nuclear arsenal, but perhaps that should be reassessed."
— John Herskovitz (24:01)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Recent missile launches and Kim’s involvement: 02:15–02:52
• Purpose of missile tests (Russia, U.S. message): 03:06–03:47
• What counts as nuclear capability: 04:26–05:26
• Size and growth of arsenal: 05:54–07:40
• Production self-sufficiency and tech copying: 07:52–09:17
• Estimating current warhead numbers: 09:17–10:49
• ICBM vs. U.S. missile defense: 11:07–12:37
• Retaliation risk and reentry technology: 12:52–14:33
• Changing U.S.–North Korea relationship & Russia’s role: 17:28–21:16
• Arms-for-aid with Russia and economic impact: 19:39–20:52
• Loss of U.S. leverage, Pyongyang's new confidence: 21:16–22:00
• Lessons from Iran/Venezuela conflicts: 22:12–23:50
• Strategic arms limitation vs. denuclearization: 24:01–25:06

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Conclusion

The episode underscores that North Korea has not only ramped up its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented pace, but, by leveraging its relationship with Russia and China, has boosted its economic and global standing to levels unseen in decades. For U.S. policymakers and allies, this signals a dangerous new reality: denuclearization is increasingly unlikely, and effective approaches may now require strategic arms limitation and robust monitoring—potentially accepting North Korea’s nuclear status as a permanent feature of the Northeast Asian order.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

as global attention focuses on the war in the Middle east and missiles being launched in the region, one country thousands of miles away has been watching closely and firing missiles of its own.

[Michigan Business Representative]

North Korea launched ballistic missiles toward waters

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

off its east coast.

[The Hartford Insurance Representative]

This is believed to be North Korea's

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

seventh ballistic missile test of the year,

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

and potentially North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the latest missile launches. On April 19, state media reported that Kim expressed great satisfaction over the test firing.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

You have Kim Jong Un watching missiles flying off. His daughter was there as well on hand, and they show on state media the precision with which the missiles hit this island.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

John Herskovitz is a Bloomberg editor based in Tokyo. He's been covering North Korea for more than 20 years. John says the purpose of these missile tests is twofold. First, they're a Demonstration for a key overseas buyer.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea has been supplying these missiles to Russia. And the tests have varied to show the various ways that the missiles can be used.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

And then there's also the message North Korea is trying to send to the US At a time when American military resources are stretched by conflicts elsewhere.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

You have the message to the outside world that North Korea's missiles are abundant, deadly, and can do far more than imagined. And they're looking at the US and saying, you have your defense systems. We know what they are, and we're rolling out these systems, trying to defeat them.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

This is the big Take Asia. From Bloomberg News, I'm Wan Ha. Every week we take you inside some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show, how North Korea's buildup of nuclear missiles has reached a dangerous tipping point for, for the U.S. Now, John, most of us, of course, are not weapons investigators. When we talk about a country's nuclear capability or nuclear arsenal, what are we actually counting? What are we talking about?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

It's a lot of different things. The first thing is fissile material. This is like stuff for bombs and it's usually plutonium or highly enriched uranium. The other thing is warheads. The actual bombs, they're small enough to go onto missiles. If they need to be delivered by bombers, they're even small enough to go onto like artillery shells. And then we have the delivery systems. These are the ballistic missiles, the bombers, the things that would actually be capable of taking a nuclear bomb and sending it to the enemy. So for North Korea, they have lots of places to produce fissile material. They are making warheads. And then the delivery systems, which are the ballistic missiles from the short range for South Korea, maybe Japan, all the way to ICBM's Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, which are designed to hit the US for

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

years, North Korea has sat at the bottom of the global nuclear hierarchy. In 2018, after meeting Kim Jong Un, President Donald Trump declared in a tweet that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat. Now, almost a decade later, North Korea still has the smallest arsenal among the nine countries that have nuclear arms capabilities. But John says that picture may be changing in critical ways.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

It's on a trajectory to have a significant number of ICBMs and warheads which will just keep on growing, getting on parity with the U.S. russia and to a lesser extent China. It's not in the picture. But being along the lines of Britain, France, India and Pakistan is something that's realistic. If the trajectory continues over the next five to 10 years.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

What do we know about how North Korea's nuclear program has evolved? How extensive is the nuclear arsenal now compared to more recent times? You know, Trump's first administration.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

When Trump left office after his first term, North Korea showed that it could fire off an ICBM and that it had the ability to build warheads. Whether North Korea could affix a warhead on top of an ICBM that could reach the US and deliver a strike, that was questionable. It was at a stage where it could produce about six bombs worth of nuclear material a year, according to estimates from nuclear experts. If we look at where it is now, North Korea has built out its ICBM arsenal, it's modernized its missiles, it's built up new launcher systems, and it has increased its ability of producing fissile material to maybe 12 to 15 a year. The President of South Korea has said earlier this year it's about 20 bombs worth of material a year.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

John, North Korea is one of the most isolated countries in the world. How has it that it's been able to make such progress on nuclear weapons in such a short amount of time?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

Kim Jong Un has prioritized rocket munitions as a key component of his government. In being so heavily sanctioned, Kim Jong Un has realized the more he can do at home, the better the system becomes. They've moved as much of the production as they can to within its borders. He has the devoted a lot of energy into building up missile production to building launchers. North Korea is also more information savvy under Kim Jong Un than it was under the previous leaders. Lots of these technologies are old technologies which are available, ready for copying. The North Korean short range ballistic missile which was involved in the recent test is very similar to a Russian missile. Making short range ballistic missiles is something that a lot of countries have done. North Korea has studied it. This is a priority for Kim and you can see the way that the production has gone. They're rolling out more and more of these short range ballistic missiles during the Cold War. During the Korean War, the Soviet Union used to supply arms to North Korea. Now North Korea is supplying arms to Russia. Things have changed.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

As of last year, North Korea was estimated to have 50 warheads and enough fissile material for 90 bombs altogether. That's according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. John, how do experts arrive at those estimates and how confident are we in those numbers?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

The warhead figure? We don't know for sure. It's not out in the open. The Fissile material. We have a pretty good idea. So if you just like go into Google Earth and type In Yong Yong 5 megawatt reactor, you can see it. This is its main nuclear facility. The IAE has been to the site. US scientists have been to this site. So they know what this can do. And it's an old design. So it's well known what the capacity is for this in uranium enrichment sites. North Korea in the past year or so released photos from inside these facilities. It showed the centrifuges which do the enrichment. Very detailed. They wanted to show the world. This is what we have nuclear scientists who are really good at looking at this Wonka stuff, counting the centrifuges and how they're arranged can figure out how much uranium per year can be enriched at these sites. And North Korea is making more and more of this bomb grade material for its weapons. That's growing. And we can see this.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

John says that steady growth has pushed North Korea's nuclear program toward a critical tipping point. It's no longer just about estimates and stockpiles. Now North Korea's ongoing production has experts asking whether U.S. missile defenses could fend off an attack.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea is getting to a stage where it can produce more ICBMs than the US has interceptors to take them down. The US has a certain number of ground based interceptors in Alaska and also I believe in California that are designed to hit ICBMs. ICBMs fly like 10001300 kilometers above the earth, like three or four times the height of the Earth International Space Station, and they go really fast. Getting interceptors up there that can hit them is tough. It's expensive as well. So the US has about 44 of these interceptors and they take about two interceptors for each ICBM. We spoke to one expert who said North Korea is probably at about 24 ICBMs now and building them out. So you're at a stage where you could theoretically overwhelm the defense systems and it increases the chances of delivering a strike on the U.S. wow.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

So that's a really dangerous math game.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

It is a dangerous math game. And it's like there are other interceptor systems out there, but you have to be in the right place at the right time. It's just not a lot of time. If you fire off an ICBM from North Korea, you're looking like 25 to 35 minutes from launch to impact.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

In the US we obviously don't want to be alarmists, but it is a bit scary though to Think about could North Korea, with all of these ICBMs and nuclear missile now, could they launch a nuclear strike that the US could not stop?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

The US has expressed confidence that it can deter and intercept a North Korean nuclear attack. But there's a chance now and with each passing year, the chance of that happening becomes higher and higher. The more North Korea can produce ICBMs, warheads and bomb grade material to put in them, the greater the risk for the US by the same token, if North Korea were to strike the U.S. this would be suicidal. It would be the end of Kim Jong Un's regime. It would be, it would invite an absolutely massive retaliatory strike that would damage North Korea from top to bottom in ways from which would take years and decades to recover.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

And John says it's still not clear if North Korea's weapons could conduct an actual long range attack on the U.S.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

they've detonated nuclear devices, they've done mock nuclear strikes with the short range ballistic missiles. The things that we don't know is if North Korea has re entry capability for its warheads, heat shields. Because you're reentering the atmosphere like we saw the Artemis II mission, you're doing that sort of thing. It gets really hot. So we don't know if North Korea has the re entry capability for its warheads. But this is a 1950s, 1960s technology. I spoke to one nuclear expert who said that if a country has the ability to build an icbm, they probably have the ability to have a re entry vehicle.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

After the break, how North Korea's aggressive nuclear bet has changed its relations with all of its neighbors and made it a more successful economy than it's ever been.

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[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

President Trump's relationship with Kim Jong Un has swung back and forth over the years, from calling Kim rocket man.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

Rocket man should have been handled a

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

long time ago to famously saying that he and Kim fell in love in 2018 and we go back and forth and then we fell in love.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

Okay. No, really.

[The Hartford Insurance Representative]

He wrote me beautiful letters and they're great letters. We fell in love.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

After a series of high profile meetings during Trump's first term, talks between Washington and Pyongyang ultimately collapsed without a deal to scale back North Korea's nuclear program. Since then, direct contact between Trump and Kim has largely dried up. There's been speculation about whether that could change, especially with Trump expected to travel to China next month. But Bloomberg's John Herskovitz says that even if the two leaders do meet again, the balance of power has shifted.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea still shows some respect to Trump, but they've also demanded that the US Accept it as a nuclear power, treat it as such, saying that it can't go forward with any negotiations unless it gets an equal billing at the table. So the deference to Trump is still there, but the reliance on Trump just isn't as great as it once was. It's getting help from Russia. It still has China as an ally and friend, and it's found more ways to get money. It has cybercrimes, it's arsenal that's moving to Russia. That's a way of getting more aid and support from Putin.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

I mean, how has that picture changed? You mentioned with Russia and the war in Ukraine.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea has some of the largest stores of artillery shells in the world because of its standoff with South Korea. And North Korea had millions of artillery shells and artillery rockets that had sent to Russia on top of this parts for Soviet era tanks. North Korea has, they have like really old clunkers. No one else has this amount of stuff that Russia needed for Ukraine and they have an avenue to get it there.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

And in return for that flow of weapons, John says Russia has been sending back something just as critical for North Korea. Money.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

Now, we've gotten some estimates about the value of the aid that North Korea has received from Russia. Maybe like 16 to 20 billion dollars. North Korea's economy is about 25 billion a year. Whether it's 16 or 20, whatever it is, it's the largest influx of aid that has happened during Kim Jong Un's reign. It solidified his ability to rule the country and it's brought a stability, which means that we're going to see, likely see several more, more years of Kim having very solid control over the country. Prices have been stabilized, goods are moving into the country, and you can see it in some of the stuff that North Korea is doing. North Korea has gone on a splurge of building housing and factories across the country. It's getting materials which were once banned under sanctions, and they seem to be appearing in, in the country now, helping him do a building boom.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

So the fact that North Korea gets assistance now from Russia in exchange for military weaponry that Russia needs, that totally cuts out the need for U.S. assistance or us holding out the carrot of will lift sanctions if you give up your nuclear program. What does that mean then for US Leverage in this new world?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

There just isn't much leverage that the US has. The leverage is that we can offer more economic incentives, but it's difficult for Kim to accept them. Part of the system in North Korea is that there is sacrifice for the collective good if everything becomes abundant, if the US Isn't a threat, then why is the leadership protecting North Korea from the US And a possible invasion. So keeping the US At a bit of a distance works in North Korea's propaganda apparatus at this point. It has help from Russia. The support from China is there. It's in one of its strongest positions that it has ever been.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

John says that shift has Pyongyang operating from a position of unusual confidence. And that matters when global tension and US Military resources are stretched to elsewhere.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea sees its nuclear arsenal as the sword and the shield, protecting the country and being able to inflict heavy blows on its opponents. So the idea of having this arsenal has just been reinforced because of what happened in Iran.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

For North Korea, John says the fighting involving Iran is being closely studied as a preview of how the US might operate in a real conflict.

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

North Korea has seen how the US works strategically, what it will strike first in the event of a war. It'll go after nuclear facilities, it'll go after missile storage sites, it'll go after air defense systems. For North Korea, this has probably been a wake up call. We have to do better at protecting our missiles. We have to do better at having our air defense systems ready to take on the U.S. so they've seen how the U.S. operates now, and they're probably looking at how to bolster its defenses in case the US Strikes first. And there's also what has gone on in Venezuela, what's going on in Iran. There's the worry of the so called decapitation strike, getting the leader. So North Korea has been thinking about this for years, and I'm sure their policy people have been looking at what to do if there is an attack on Kim Jong Un. How do we respond? What systems do we have in place?

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

That leaves a broader question. How should the world respond now that North Korea's nuclear capabilities appear to have reached a tipping point?

[John Herskovitz (Bloomberg Editor and North Korea Expert)]

You know, there's some people who have argued that instead of removing nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula, we should talk about limitation, monitoring, getting a threshold and keeping the state there. Kind of like what the US and Russians did during the Cold War with the various strategic Armed limitation treaties and things of that sort. That should be the new way of thinking. Setting limits, verification, and accepting North Korea as having nuclear nuclear weapons and trying to cap what it has. I think the determination of South Korea and the US And Japan and NATO allies will be to illuminate North Korea's nuclear weapons program entirely. It's just the reality. And what people want in theory are different. So maybe we'll see a shift in thinking of the US Administration about how it treats North Korea. But at this time, the policy is getting rid of its nuclear arsenal, but perhaps that should be reassessed.

[Wan Ha (Bloomberg Host)]

This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wan ha to get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcasto. If you like the episode, make sure to subscribe and review the Big Take Asia. Wherever you listen to podcasts, it really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. See you next time.

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