The Big Take – "The Domino Effect of the ‘Donroe Doctrine’"

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts)
Date: January 16, 2026
Host: David Gura
Guest: Ambassador Nicholas Burns (Former US Ambassador to China, Professor at Harvard Kennedy School)

Overview

This episode of The Big Take dives into the geopolitical aftermath of the dramatic US Special Forces capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and its far-reaching implications, particularly for US-China relations in Latin America. Host David Gura engages Ambassador Nicholas Burns in a nuanced conversation about how the incident’s reverberations—in oil, diplomacy, influence, and alliances—are being felt across the region. The show scrutinizes the so-called "Donroe Doctrine" (President Trump’s reinvigorated Monroe Doctrine), Chinese strategy, and the broader contest for influence, asking what these moves portend for global order, Taiwan, and even Greenland.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The US Operation in Venezuela: Humiliating for China (02:02–03:46)

• Background:
  On January 2, 2026, Nicolas Maduro is arrested by US Special Forces in Caracas just hours after a widely publicized meeting with Chinese officials, which underlined deep Chinese investment and partnership in Venezuela.

• Impact on China:
  Ambassador Burns underscores the humiliation for China, previously Venezuela’s staunch supporter, unable to shield Maduro from US intervention.

  "When that crisis came, the Chinese couldn't defend Nicolas Maduro. So I think frankly, this has been a loss of space and it's been a loss of influence for China, certainly in Venezuela." (03:19 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

• Regional Ramifications:
  Burns suggests Latin American countries will reevaluate the reliability of China as a partner post-Maduro.

2. China’s Deepening Ties in Latin America (04:28–06:44)

• Trade Shifts:
  In 2002, every South American country’s top trading partner was the US; by 2024, it was China—except Colombia. Shows China’s persistent and strategic economic encroachment.

• Chinese Response Strategy:
  Despite US pressure, China is unlikely to withdraw. They remain a key creditor to Venezuela and will seek to maintain economic and political influence.

  "They're not going to leave the field in a new Monroe Doctrine…They're going to compete." (05:23 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

• Possible Debt Negotiations:
  China is positioned to demand participation if Venezuela’s debt is restructured.

3. Venezuelan Oil and China’s Interests (06:44–08:02)

• Relative Importance:
  Venezuela makes up only about 4% of China’s oil imports—politically symbolic but less important strategically.

  "I think it's more symbolically important than it is in real terms." (06:58 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

• Broader Ambitions:
  China is focused on the whole South American market, not just Venezuela.

• US Leverage:
  Burns points out that control over Venezuelan oil could strengthen US hands in ongoing trade/supply chain talks with China.

4. Authoritarian Influence and the End of an Era? (09:16–10:46)

• Authoritarian Bloc:
  Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, and others supported Maduro post-2024 election. The capture marks a setback for this axis.

• US Assertiveness:
  The US outmaneuvering Maduro’s protectors signals a shift in dominance.

  "This has been a dramatic diminution of Chinese influence in the Western hemisphere." (10:46 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

5. The ‘Donroe Doctrine’: A Renewed U.S. Regional Focus (10:49–12:21)

• Trump’s Doctrine (the “Donroe Doctrine”):
  Trump openly revives the Monroe Doctrine—US primacy in the hemisphere—and focuses on oil security.

• Critique of US Policy:
  Burns acknowledges the security rationale but criticizes the narrow focus on resources, arguing the US should champion rule of law and democratic values for regional credibility.

  "It's not going to be attractive…if the United States is seen to be saying, we only care about your resources." (12:21 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

6. Beyond Venezuela: Cuba, Mexico, and Greenland (12:21–16:02)

• Rising Tensions:
  US puts Cuba on notice; Trump hints at actions against Mexican cartels; and, strangely, expresses designs over Greenland, fixating on supposed Chinese threats.

• Greenland and NATO Risks:
  Burns finds Trump’s Greenland focus confusing, noting true Arctic threats are best handled through US alliances.

  "If the Trump administration tries to use military force to occupy Greenland, that will be the end of NATO. It will cause irreparably harm to the United States. It will be a shameful episode in our history." (15:28 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

7. Does China Look Like the “Adult in the Room”? (16:02–18:27)

• Chinese Messaging:
  China seeks to position itself as a stable, responsible global partner in contrast to US “instability.”

  "China is saying, we are the defender of the international order... That’s a little bit of sophistry from the Chinese." (16:25 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

• US Alliances as Strength:
  Burns asserts the US must act multilaterally with allies for strategic leverage, cautioning against isolation or unilateralism.

8. Global Precedent: Taiwan and Russia-Ukraine (18:27–20:49)

• Implications for Taiwan:
  The US incursion in Venezuela could set a precedent China might cite for military action against Taiwan.

  "Should [Xi] attempt to do that... he may well use what the United States did in Venezuela to justify, well, if the United States can invade a sovereign member of the United Nations... we have the right to take back what they believe incorrectly is a territory of the People's Republic of China." (19:17 – Ambassador Nicholas Burns)

• Parallel With Russia-Ukraine:
  US actions may inadvertently bolster the rhetorical case for Russian claims on Ukraine.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On China’s Loss in Venezuela:

  "This has been a loss of space and it's been a loss of influence for China, certainly in Venezuela." (03:19 – Burns)

• On U.S.-China Global Competition:

  "This is all part of this global competition that's been underway for many years now between the US and China." (06:44 – Burns)

• On US Alliances:

  "The United States, I think is strongest when we're working with and through our allies, our NATO allies like Denmark and East Asia, our allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, our strategic partner, India, Australia." (17:27 – Burns)

• Trump’s Stark Commentary:

  "They now call it the Don Roh document. I don't know, it's Monroe Doctrine…We don't forget about it anymore." (10:49 – Trump)

• On Precedent for Authoritarian Action:

  "We're giving [China and Russia] a tactical advantage in how they describe what their own strategies are…That's very ill advised for the United States." (20:44 – Burns)

Important Timestamps

• 02:02 – Maduro’s meeting with China and subsequent US capture
• 03:19 – Ambassador Burns on China’s setback
• 04:28 – The scale of China’s trade dominance in South America
• 05:23 – Burns: China will not “quit” Latin America
• 06:44 – Symbolic vs. real value of Venezuelan oil to China
• 09:22 – Authoritarian regimes’ support for Maduro
• 10:49 – Trump introduces the “Donroe Doctrine”
• 13:05 – Trump on China, Greenland, and US strategic posture
• 15:28 – Burns on risks to NATO, US alliances
• 16:25 – The perception of China as a “calm, predictable partner”
• 18:27 – Venezuela precedent and its impact on China-Taiwan strategy
• 19:17 – Burns on how US actions could be used to justify China or Russia’s aggression

Conclusion

This episode delivers a candid, incisive examination of the stakes in US-Latin America-China dynamics following the Maduro crisis, unpacking the effectiveness—and risks—of the Trump administration’s revived Monroe Doctrine. With Ambassador Burns, David Gura spotlights diplomatic, economic, and alliance-centered angles, weaving in how these high-stakes maneuvers ricochet far beyond Venezuela, shaping global power plays in Taiwan, Russia, and even the Arctic. The conversation ultimately underscores both the opportunities and perils for US foreign policy in an era of shifting alliances and resurgent great-power rivalry.