Big Take – "The Winners and Losers of Trump’s New Tariff Reality"

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts)
Air Date: February 23, 2026
Host: Sarah Holder; panelists: Juan Ha, Brendan Murray, Jenny Marsh

Episode Overview

This episode of Big Take dives into the global economic repercussions of President Donald Trump’s latest moves on tariffs following a landmark Supreme Court decision that limited his previous authority. With Trump announcing new global tariffs and exploring untested legal avenues to push rates even higher, the hosts break down the winners and losers emerging from this shifting trade landscape. The panel focuses on how America’s trading partners—especially in Asia and Europe—are reacting and recalibrating, and what new uncertainties and opportunities are shaping major trade deals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Supreme Court Ruling and Trump’s Tariff Response

• Background: The Supreme Court ruled Trump’s broad emergency-powered tariffs illegal, but he responded by using a different statute to impose a 10% global tariff, later raising it to 15% for a legally permissible 150-day duration ([01:16]–[01:55]).
• Trump’s approach leaves global trade in limbo, as affected countries delay signing deals pending clarification of US positions.
  • "On Monday, the European Union postponed a vote on the trade deal... India’s trade delegation has also postponed a trip..." – Sarah Holder [02:05]

2. International Reactions: Shifts in Leverage

• Europe and China: Both perceive the US as having lost leverage; China emerges as a relative winner, now “on a level playing field with US allies” ([03:18] Jenny Marsh).
• China’s Perspective: China’s muted response is strategic, benefiting from the Supreme Court ruling while awaiting accelerated Section 301 investigations which could still target them ([05:32] Jenny Marsh).
  • "China sort of came out from the ruling as one of the winners... particularly ahead of the Xi-Trump summit as well" – Jenny Marsh [05:37]
• Allies and trading partners are recalculating their own negotiating power, with some, like the EU or Beijing, sensing increased leverage in talks ([03:08] Brendan Murray).

3. The Winners and the Losers

• Winners: China, India, and Brazil see reduced tariffs and thus relief for now, but uncertainties remain as Trump prepares further sector-specific measures.
  • "The biggest winners so far is China, India and Brazil. They were facing the highest tariffs and they're the ones that have seen the biggest percent decreases." – Jenny Marsh [06:57]
• Losers: UK, Japan, and South Korea lose negotiated advantages due to the across-the-board rate; Canada and Mexico are exempt due to USMCA but face renewed uncertainty over ongoing renegotiations.
  • "United Kingdom... negotiated the best deal of a 10% rate... now this across the board, 15%. Does that mean they're one of the losers?" – Brendan Murray [08:08]
  • "It must be so frustrating to wake up and realize that hard work has sort of been for nothing." – Jenny Marsh [09:34]

4. Tariff Volatility and Impact on Global Trade

• No Massive Structural Change (Yet): US’s top trading partners mostly unchanged, though China’s share has dropped; companies now pursue diversified markets out of necessity ([11:20] Brendan Murray).
  • “China’s exports to the US accounted for just 10% of its total exports... that’s half from the first trade war.” – Jenny Marsh [12:27]
• China’s Adaptation: China deftly pivoted, boosting exports elsewhere and even exceeding growth targets despite long-feared tariff headwinds ([14:43] Jenny Marsh).
  • “The trade war went better for Xi Jinping than he ever realized it would do... it probably has rewired trade.” – Jenny Marsh [14:43]

5. Implications for Trade Negotiations and Geopolitics

• Allies’ Trust Shaken: The volatility and legal reversals have damaged US credibility; partners realize reliance on the US is risky ([16:20] Jenny Marsh).
  • "You embrace Trump's trade war, you say, okay, we'll make the deals... turns out they aren't legal after all. And then you have to renegotiate." – Jenny Marsh [16:20]
• Upcoming Xi-Trump Summit: China gains negotiating power, potentially pressing the US for key concessions—on tech (Nvidia chips) and Taiwan policy ([17:15], [18:10]).
  • “Xi Jinping has two things he really cares about getting from the US – access to the highest end Nvidia chips, and some kind of concession on Taiwan.” – Jenny Marsh [18:10]
  • “Trump has already signaled that he’s much more open to giving them those top chips than any other US leader.” – Jenny Marsh [18:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On shifting leverage:
  “If you’re sitting in Brussels or Beijing right now, you’re saying perhaps maybe we have more leverage than we did last week.”
  – Brendan Murray [03:08]
• On China’s adaptation:
  “China realized it’s not half as dependent on America as everyone thought.”
  – Jenny Marsh [03:52]
• On the frustration of trade negotiators:
  “It must be so frustrating to wake up and realize that hard work has sort of been for nothing.”
  – Jenny Marsh [09:34]
• On US credibility:
  “It just dents US credibility. No one’s going to turn their back on the US... but at the same time, there is a clear need to make sure you have a range of partners.”
  – Jenny Marsh [16:20]
• On Xi Jinping’s goals:
  “Xi Jinping has two things he really cares about getting from the US – access to the highest end Nvidia chips, and some kind of concession on Taiwan.”
  – Jenny Marsh [18:10]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:16] – Trump’s new tariff moves after Supreme Court ruling
• [03:08] – Rise in leverage for China and Europe
• [05:32] – China as a “winner,” but Section 301 threat remains
• [06:57] – Winners of new tariff reality: China, India, Brazil
• [08:08] – Losers: UK, Japan, South Korea, impact on USMCA
• [11:20] – How trade partner shares have shifted (or not)
• [12:27] – China’s export rerouting and resilience
• [14:43] – The positive trade war outcome for China
• [16:20] – Damage to US credibility among allies
• [17:15] – Preview of the Xi-Trump summit, negotiation implications
• [18:10] – Xi Jinping’s dream scenario: tech concessions, Taiwan issue

Conclusion

The episode captures the complex ripple effects of the Supreme Court decision and President Trump’s subsequent tariff gambit, highlighting how allies, rivals, and global markets are recalibrating. China’s adaptability and the erosion of US negotiating dominance stand out, while uncertainty grows for trade partners who bet on bilateral deals. The upcoming Xi-Trump summit looms large as a test of this new dynamic, with the potential to further reshape the global economic landscape.