Big Take: Trump’s Economy, One (Second) Year In

Date: January 19, 2026
Host: David Gueret (Bloomberg News)
Guests: Nancy Cook (Political Reporter, Bloomberg), Mark Nikkei (Real Economy Reporter, Bloomberg)

Episode Overview

This episode of the Big Take examines the first year of President Trump’s second term—how his sweeping economic policies have reshaped the US and global economies, and how those changes might (or might not) endure beyond his administration. Bloomberg reporters Nancy Cook and Mark Nikkei join to discuss Trump’s signature policies: trade, deregulation, taxes, government intervention in business, immigration, and the relationship with the Federal Reserve.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trade Policy: The End of Free Trade Orthodoxy

• [03:44] Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs has reversed decades of support for free trade.

  • "It's completely reordered global trade... highest tariff rate now since the 1930s in the US..." —Mark Nikkei [04:00]
  • Extreme unpredictability for businesses: shifting rates, carve-outs for politically sensitive goods (e.g., coffee, bananas).
  • Companies make short-term moves (import surges before tariff deadlines) but are reluctant to plan long-term.
  • Economic effects are still unclear due to constantly evolving policy.

• [04:42] Political shift: Congress has ceded trade authority to the executive.

  • "Republican lawmakers have ceded basically all their power to the Trump White House. Trade is totally in the authority of Congress. But Trump...has completely run over Republican lawmakers on this and has really done so without a lot of protest." —Nancy Cook [06:02]
  • Supreme Court challenge pending; regardless, Trump likely to persist using alternate legal avenues.

• [07:31] Tariffs’ intended manufacturing boom hasn't materialized.

  • "The intent...is that if you make your goods or your products in the US you don’t have to pay the tariff...but it’s just not that simple..." —Mark Nikkei [07:40]
  • American manufacturers hurt by high input costs and unpredictability.

2. Deregulation: Scrapping Guardrails

• [08:58] Sweeping rollbacks on environmental, financial, and energy regulations.
  • Targeted at spurring oil drilling and reducing compliance requirements on banks (e.g., post-financial crisis capital rules).
  • "Like a lot of Republican presidents, he just has thought that there has been too many rules...really undone a lot of...regulations out of EPA and a lot of energy regulations..." —Nancy Cook [08:58]

3. Immigration: Restrictionism Deepens

• [09:45] Southern border effectively closed; legal immigration (esp. H-1B visas) under siege.
  • Proposed $100,000 fee for H-1B work visas, prompting legal challenges.
  • Sectors dependent on migrant labor—construction, agriculture—face worker shortages.
  • "We've just seen a broad sort of reaction to companies that depend on migrant labor...a real concern that there'll be a shortage of workers in these industries..." —Mark Nikkei [09:45]

4. Pressures on the Federal Reserve

• [10:47] Ongoing public attacks and court challenges against Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • "It's been sort of nonstop attacks on Jerome Powell...it's completely upended...the relationship that we've come used to between a presidential administration and the Federal Reserve..." —Mark Nikkei [11:11]
  • The dollar has weakened, raising questions about its status as a world reserve currency.

5. Government Investment in Private Enterprise

• [11:55] Direct government equity stakes in critical industries (e.g., Intel, revenue-sharing with Nvidia).
  • Traditional Republicans astonished; smacks of interventionist/democratic economic policy.
  • "It has been a remarkable moment...Trump...always wants a deal on the economy...he's taking stakes in companies that are critical to national security...it is just so interesting because it's also really this democratic idea of the government should be more involved in controlling things." —Nancy Cook [12:28]
  • Raises questions about permanence: will future Republican leaders continue this?

6. The Staying Power of Trump’s Economic Changes

• [15:47] Will these changes outlast Trump’s presidency?
• Tax Policy: Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”
  • Permanent/extended tax cuts for individuals; new provisions: no tax on tips or overtime, full expensing of business capital investments.
  • Projected $30-$100 billion in consumer tax refunds for 2026.
  • "The combination of the consumer tax breaks and the business tax breaks...probably will go a long way toward determining whether these breaks stay in effect with the next administrations..." —Mark Nikkei [16:20]
• GOP Lawmaker Reaction
  • Republican opposition minimal; only real resistance was to a floated Trump proposal to raise taxes on millionaires.
  • "Republican lawmakers, I would say, on most economic issues really haven't protested...one idea...to raise taxes on millionaires...privately, there was a lot of discussion..." —Nancy Cook [17:29]

7. Affordability and Populist Policy Crossroads

• [17:59] Trump’s policies have added to consumer costs via tariffs; affordability an ongoing problem.
  • "I think you can point more to things that he's done that have added costs to products...than you can to things...to lower costs..." —Mark Nikkei [18:15]
  • New populist-sounding policies floated: limitations on corporate homeownership, caps on credit card interest.

8. The Future of Republican Economic Policy

• [19:29] Trump redefines the party’s economic priorities, blending populism with old orthodoxies.
  • Focus has shifted away from deficit to issues like housing costs, AI, energy bills.
  • "Republicans are not really the party of lower taxes and less regulation anymore...it's unclear to me what the party will take as their platform moving forward. And I think that's going to be one of the most interesting things to watch over the next three years." —Nancy Cook [20:58]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Republican Passivity:
  "Republican lawmakers have ceded basically all their power to the Trump White House...without a lot of protest." —Nancy Cook [06:02]

• On Factory Jobs and Tariff Uncertainty:
  "We have yet to see significant reshoring activity because of the tariffs. That might still be coming. But in the meantime... we’ve certainly seen a decrease in manufacturing employment." —Mark Nikkei [08:34]

• On Government Stakes in Business:
  "It is just so interesting because it’s also really this democratic idea of the government should be more involved in controlling things..." —Nancy Cook [12:41]

• Defining the GOP’s Future:
  "Republicans are not really the party of lower taxes and less regulation anymore...it’s unclear to me what the party will take as their platform moving forward." —Nancy Cook [20:58]

Segment Timestamps

• [01:41] Episode begins: The Trump Administration’s economic impact
• [03:44] Trade wars: Tariffs and global implications
• [08:52] Deregulation overview
• [09:45] Immigration clampdown’s effects on the labor market
• [10:47] Trump’s antagonism toward the Fed
• [11:55] Government intervention—equity stakes in private companies
• [15:47] Durability of Trump-era policies
• [17:59] The problem of affordability and populist policy pivots
• [19:29] What is the future of the GOP’s economic agenda?

Conclusion

The first year of Trump’s second term has seen swift and dramatic moves away from traditional economic policy—on trade, regulation, immigration, and government participation in business. The long-term effects are unsettled: while some measures may endure if they prove popular or market-driven, the party’s ideological foundation is in flux. The episode underscores the uncertainty shaping not just economic outcomes, but the identity of America’s conservative movement and its approach to economic governance.