Weekend Listen: A Stock Market of Amazonian Proportions

Summary

Big Take – "A Stock Market of Amazonian Proportions"

Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts | May 17, 2026
Host: Max Chafkin, Stacey Vanek Smith | Guests: Brad Stone, Kyla Scanlon, Sean Nguyen

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Overview:

This episode examines Amazon’s vast influence on modern commerce and technology, focusing on its evolution into AI and cloud computing, its impact on the broader stock market, and the social, political, and generational headwinds now gathering around big tech and artificial intelligence. Special guests—including Brad Stone (Businessweek editor, Amazon biographer), Kyla Scanlon (economist, author of "In This Economy"), and Sean Nguyen (Bloomberg journalist)—bring deep-dive analysis and context.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Amazon’s Ubiquity and User Sentiment

Timestamp: 01:46–04:14

• Personal Relationship with Amazon Prime:

  • The hosts joke about their own dependency and ambivalence toward Prime, setting up the personal and societal reach of Amazon’s services.
  • Vox pop interviews with everyday New Yorkers reveal Prime usage is "normalized," ubiquitous, and tied to expectations of low-cost, rapid delivery, but mixed with concerns about local business and corporate power.
    • “It’s a convenience, not dependent on it.” – Shopper [03:18]
    • “It saves time. Time is the scarcest resource. You can buy it with more money and it saves time.” – Shopper [03:48]

• Normalization of Amazon:

  • 200 million Prime members as of December survey.
    • "There’s an expectation...of things arriving in two days." – Stacey Vanek Smith [06:21]

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2. Amazon’s Corporate Evolution and AI Pivot

Timestamp: 04:18–10:47

• What is Amazon Now?

  • Brad Stone describes Amazon as a "corporate turducken"—ad business, logistics, e-commerce, and cloud computing, all garnished with Alexa, Whole Foods, and Prime Video. [07:08–07:36]
    • Quote: “It’s an ad business, a logistics company stuffed inside an e-commerce marketplace, trussed to a cloud computing powerhouse, garnished with Alexa, Whole Foods, and Prime Video.” – Brad Stone [04:53 / 07:08]

• AI as Next Frontier:

  • Amazon’s goal isn’t just to use AI, but to be "the Amazon of AI."
  • Risk of lagging behind rivals Microsoft (OpenAI) and Google (Anthropic).
  • CEO Andy Jassy’s five-year tenure is marked by efforts to catch up, investing in AI chips to rival Nvidia, and launching "Bedrock" for customizable cloud AI (AWS customers can "order" different AI models, like a diner’s menu for businesses) [09:37].

• Business-to-Business and Consumer AI:

  • Amazon’s approach is both B2B (AWS/AI infrastructure) and consumer-facing (e.g., Alexa enhancements, Rufus shopping assistant) [10:31–10:47].
    • “The answer is always yes.” – Brad Stone [10:45]

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3. AI Productivity Promises and Economic Gaps

Timestamp: 10:47–13:23

• Productivity Lag & Risk:

  • AI’s economic promise is substantial, but actual productivity gains aren’t yet evident. There’s always a delay between technological innovation and broad macroeconomic effects (job creation/loss).
    • “There is always a gap...when it actually causes the economy to grow.” – Stacey Vanek Smith [11:22]

• Amazon's Advantage/Cushion:

  • Unlike startups, Amazon/Big Tech can absorb long-term AI investments—they self-fund data center expansions ($200 billion CapEx in 2026) and don’t rely on risky lending [12:15].
  • Risk: If AI-powered shopping agents (e.g., within ChatGPT or Claude) surpass Amazon’s own, Amazon’s e-commerce moat could erode [12:23].

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4. Political Risk and Public Sentiment

Timestamp: 13:23–15:45

• AI Skepticism and Political Backlash:
  • Despite impressive stats—a billion weekly ChatGPT users, AWS fastest growth in years—public attitudes are ambivalent or souring.
  • Ro Khanna (pro-tech Congressman) is now publicly turning against tech, reflecting larger voter concerns.
    • “Many people...are turning against this stuff—these data centers. I think this is going to be a risk for Amazon.” – Max Chatkin [14:24]
  • Massive protests against new data centers (e.g., in Utah) [15:45].

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5. Stock Market Resilience Amid Chaos

Timestamp: 19:00–31:52
(Interview with Kyla Scanlon)

• Disconnect Between Market & Reality:

  • Despite wars (e.g., Straits of Hormuz closure), high inflation, surging oil prices, and stagnant wages, US stock markets keep hitting highs.
    • “It just seems like nothing can slow it down.” – Kyla Scanlon [21:01]

• The “Rescue” Expectation:

  • Markets have come to expect Fed bailouts whenever there’s instability—a legacy from Greenspan, Bernanke, Powell, carried into the Trump era [23:04].
    • “The stock market now expects that rescue mechanism to take place...that is part of the reason that it refuses to go down.” – Kyla Scanlon [24:07]

• AI Optimism as “The Last Hope”:

  • Current exuberance is pinned on AI-driven corporate earnings, but it’s worryingly divorced from risk fundamentals.
    • “The market is not pricing risk properly...That puts the stability of the entire American experiment at risk.” – Kyla Scanlon [25:19]
  • An aging population dependent on stock-based retirement—if a reckoning comes, millions of 401ks and retirements are exposed [25:19].

• Potential “AI Crash” and Bailout Pathways:

  • Ideas include public data centers, breakups, and regulation (“Glass Steagall for AI”), drawing from policy papers on preparing for an AI-specific crash [28:23].
    • “We’re doing the same thing that we did with social media where we’re like let it ride and like let’s see what happens. And it’s a crazy, crazy experiment.” – Kyla Scanlon [28:54]

• Generational Psychology & YOLO Economy:

  • Younger generations, priced out of housing, are making riskier investments and indulging “little treat” spending, shaping a “YOLO economy.” [31:27–31:45]

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6. Generational Tensions—AI Backlash at Graduation

Timestamp: 41:03–45:18
(Underrated Story Segment with Sean Nguyen)

• University of Central Florida Graduates Boo AI Commencement Speech:
  • Speaker Gloria Caulfield declares, “The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution”—the crowd boos [41:15].
  • Analysis: Grads see AI as a direct threat, with entry-level jobs disappearing and generational promises around “learning to code” upended.
    • “A whole generation...was sold on the idea that learning to code would be their golden ticket. And one of the first changes that we see from AI is the decimation of entry level computer programming jobs.” – Sean Nguyen [43:13]
  • Hosts note the generational gap in optimism/pessimism over AI, and how youths’ direct protest ("booing") is an expression that can’t be replaced by any digital tool [44:29–44:55].

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Amazon as "Corporate Turducken":

  • “It’s an ad business, a logistics company stuffed inside an e-commerce marketplace, trussed to a cloud computing powerhouse, garnished with Alexa, Whole Foods, and Prime Video.” – Brad Stone [04:53/07:08]

• On AI’s Uneasy Economic Promise:

  • “There is always a gap...between when the technology is introduced and when it actually causes the economy to grow.” – Stacey Vanek Smith [11:22]
  • “There's almost no way for these large tech companies to lose.” – Brad Stone [12:15]
  • “The market is not pricing risk properly...That puts the stability of the entire American experiment at risk.” – Kyla Scanlon [25:19]
  • “We’re doing the same thing that we did with social media where we’re like let it ride and like let’s see what happens. And it’s a crazy, crazy experiment.” – Kyla Scanlon [28:54]

• On Generational Frustration with AI:

  • “…The very idea of a commencement address...has been upended...A whole generation...was sold on the idea that learning to code would be their golden ticket. And one of the first changes that we see from AI is the decimation of entry level computer programming jobs.” – Sean Nguyen [43:13]

• Memorable Audience Feedback:

  • “Time is the scarcest resource. You can buy it with more money and it saves time.” — Amazon shopper [03:48]
  • “It is honestly, the more we talk about this, the more shocked I am that there isn’t [a Trump-branded AI model].” – Max Chatkin [30:00]

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Highlighted Timestamps

• Amazon Prime and Everyday Dependency | 01:46–04:14
• Brad Stone on Amazon’s Identity | 07:08–07:36
• Amazon’s AI Race & Business Model Innovations | 07:53–10:47
• Macro AI Productivity Questions | 10:47–13:23
• Markets, War, and “Rescue” Expectation | 19:00–24:07
• Stock Market vs. Reality, "YOLO" Economy | 25:19–31:45
• Generational Booing of AI at Graduation | 41:03–45:18

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Tone & Language

• Conversational, sardonic, and insightful; the hosts mix deep analysis with cultural and generational observation, moving from wry comedy (“It’s a corporate turducken”) to anxious skepticism about tech’s societal impacts.
• Guest voices—particularly Brad Stone and Kyla Scanlon—bring calm expertise, policy references, and occasionally polemical warnings about markets and technology risk.

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Conclusion / Takeaways

• Amazon isn’t just an “everything store”—it’s an ecosystem deeply embedded in commerce, logistics, media, and the infrastructure of AI and cloud computing.
• The US stock market’s current exuberance hinges on faith in AI-driven future profits and the expectation of continual Fed “rescues”—a faith possibly unmoored from uncomfortable political and generational realities.
• The younger generation is already openly rebelling against the hollow promises of AI’s “revolution,” with real economic consequences on the horizon.
• The gulf between Big Tech optimism and public skepticism is likely to be one of the defining business and political stories of the late 2020s.

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Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News

[Max Chatkin]

Stacey, this is kind of a personal question, but what is your relationship with Amazon Prime?

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

My relationship?

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah, your relationship.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

It's complicated.

[Max Chatkin]

It's funny, I am on the outs with Amazon prime mostly because my wife canceled it and I am trying to make do with Walmart plus or whatever it's called.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Okay.

[Max Chatkin]

Very similar service. And these services are everywhere. They have become a defining part of pretty much many people's lives, at least in the developed world. And we sent our producer Miles J. Herzenhorn out into New York, where were there a lot of Amazon prime shoppers, just to understand what their prime habits were. This service has been around for something like 20 years. How do they see it? Do you have Amazon Prime? Yes. How often would you say you use Amazon? Maybe like once every few weeks.

[Brad Stone]

Yes, quite often.

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah. A couple of years. And what is the last thing you purchased off of Amazon? Literally, we buy so many things every day. I mean, every single day. I think just household essentials like soap, small things like I had a cable that I had to buy. I think a phone case. Yeah, I'm pretty sure A phone case? Yeah, maybe a dish rack, probably a pair of sneakers. I bought my watch off Amazon. I think that's the last thing I bought. Yeah. What's your relationship to Amazon? I would say it's a convenience, not dependent on it.

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Pretty good.

[Brad Stone]

Yeah.

[Max Chatkin]

They get my packages on time, pretty fast shipping and they have everything I need on there.

[Brad Stone]

I mean I like the convenience of the company itself and I've had Prime

[Max Chatkin]

for a while and I used the video.

[Brad Stone]

But a little troubled about the management to be honest.

[Max Chatkin]

They provide a good service but they're

[Kyla Scanlon]

also a massive corporation so there's trade offs.

[Brad Stone]

I'm unsure because since COVID people been

[Kyla Scanlon]

using it way too much I think

[Max Chatkin]

and it's making local business fail. I think it saves time. Time is the scarcest resource. You can buy it with more money and it saves time. So we use it more and more as we move forward. So a lot of usage of Amazon, Stacey, but mixed feelings?

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Well, yeah, yeah, I mean, but most people seem to be using it for all kinds of things.

[Max Chatkin]

What they're not talking about but they are using it for is AI and cloud computing. It's a huge part of Amazon's business. And Brad Stone, who'll be joining us later, wrote a whole story for Bloomberg Businessweek about this kind of new version of Amazon and where it's going.

[Brad Stone]

How do you frame Amazon today? It's so many disparate things and we write it's a corporate turducken. Turduckens are always funny. It's an ad business, a logistics company stuffed inside an E commerce marketplace trust to a cloud computing powerhouse garnished with Alexa, Whole Foods and Prime video.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Amazon, of course, one of the big magnificent seven stocks, has been having a pretty great year, had a great last year and in spite of all the things that have happened, the markets have been going up, Amazon right along with them. And we have Kyla Scanlon to talk about why the markets keep relentlessly marching skyward even though the economy has taken some major blows.

[Kyla Scanlon]

It's not a good or bad thing. It's just like the worry. The market's not properly understanding what's happening. And then that puts 401ks at risk. That puts retirees at risk. That puts the stability of the entire like American experiment at risk. So that's, that's the concern.

[Max Chatkin]

This is everybody's business. I'm Max Chatkin. And I'm Stacey Vanek Smith, the behemoth that is Amazon. Coming up after the breakfast. Stacey, I was giving you a hard time earlier, about your Amazon prime, were

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

you giving me a hard time about my Amazon Prime?

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah, but the truth is you are really in the majority.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

I'm not in a niche minority, no.

[Max Chatkin]

Amazon prime is very popular. In fact, a third party survey published in December by the Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, sort of trying to estimate the number of prime subscribers, put it at around 200 million. So lots of us, lots of us enjoy the glories.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Well, I think it's become normalized. I feel like there's an expectation that's developed of things getting shipped, of not paying for shipping and then things arriving in two days. And when I do order things off of other websites, even though on one level I feel better about myself sometimes, on another level it is hard to pay a 20 or 10 or $20

[Max Chatkin]

shipping fee and hard once we spend so much time with a company like Amazon to quit it. And we have someone right here, right now in the studio who has been thinking about this and other big questions. Businessweek editor Brad Stone. He's also the author of two books on Amazon, the Everything Store and Amazon Unbound. What even is Amazon at this point? I mean, I think most people think of it as a store, an everything store, if you will.

[Brad Stone]

Max, there's one line from the story I wrote with Matt Day that I'm particularly proud of because we thought this. How do you frame Amazon today? It's so many disparate things. And we write it's a corporate turducken. Turduckens are always funny. It's an ad business, a logistics company stuffed inside an E commerce marketplace trust to a cloud computing powerhouse garnished with Alexa, whole foods and prime video. So in a way, it's not as easily described as an everything store.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

You talk about in your article that they're making this big move into AI, that they've made just this huge bet, and that their goal with AI is not just AI. I feel like a lot of companies are, everybody's, even shoe companies are getting into AI. But you make the point that they want to be the Amazon of AI. What does that mean?

[Brad Stone]

Well, first of all, Amazon has a lot to lose, right? AWS is the market leader in cloud computing. It's got something like what, 35 or 40% market share.

[Max Chatkin]

Explain what that is. I think people sort of know what cloud computing is. But when you say aws, Amazon Web Services, what are you talking about?

[Brad Stone]

This is companies, organizations, governments, renting their computing capacity, running their applications on the servers of what we call in the industry, like the big hyperscalers that's Amazon primarily with the majority of market share, but also Google and Microsoft in this new wave of AI where the potential is to kind of supercharge your operations with AI. Microsoft and Google have started to make up a lot of ground. They have booked a lot more future business. They each early on invested in the leading AI companies. Microsoft in OpenAI, Google very early on in Anthropic. And there was the perception internally and externally that Amazon was caught flat footed. And here on the fifth anniversary of Andy Jassy's tenure as CEO taking over for from Jeff Bezos, we are looking at his playbook and how he's been trying to catch up. And he has, he has largely caught

[Max Chatkin]

up in a lot of ways. Amazon was behind on AI. Like this trend caught them by surprise in a sense because they do not have one of the leading large language models. On the other hand, they were very early in a bunch of things that are kind of AI adjacent, data centers being one of them, Alexa this kind of a proto chatbot being another, and even like the Amazon Go store that, that has now been shut down. Like they, they had some sense that this was going to be a thing, but they didn't quite play it right. How have they turned it around?

[Brad Stone]

Yeah, no, I think it's true. I mean Jeff was pushing machine learning tools inside the company for more than a decade. I think that there was an opportunity for them to invest earlier than they did in anthropic, maybe even OpenAI. But they've turned it around by running the Amazon Play. So they produce chips to compete with Nvidia's AI processors. And the selling point for those is that they're a little bit more cost effective. Come to Amazon, run the model, save a little bit of money or do it more efficiently. The other thing is you go to Amazon's bedrock service, which is how you'd run your AI applications if you're an AWS customer. And I kind of compare it to a sort of a diner's menu of options. People want to run their AI where their data is and where their applications are. So depending on their customers and their market share and the hassle or the inconvenience of moving off that to basically solidify their position.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

So is Amazon's AI basically just a business to business? Is it like a B2B AI or will customers like prime members experience it too?

[Brad Stone]

I mean this is Amazon, right? So it's always everything. So they've done a couple of things.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

The answer is yes.

[Brad Stone]

The answer is always yes, this may

[Max Chatkin]

be a good time to broaden the conversation to AI in general. This is the kind of COVID story of a series of stories that are in the same issue all about AI and, and kind of what it's going to take to, to take AI to the next level. Stacy has a story and I've got a story in it. And, and I, I think, Stacy, I, I thought of your story which is about AI and productivity and the question of what it means for productivity and it made me wonder and I think there is a big question hanging over this whole AI revolution which is like when are the productivity gains going to come? And are they going to come or do. Are we sure they're going to come?

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

I mean, to me that's a really interesting question about AI is that there's all this promise, all this excitement. Our economy in a lot of ways is kind of counting on it. But there is always a gap with new technology between when the technology is introduced and adopted and when it actually causes the economy to grow. And there's also a gap with jobs which I think is scaring everybody. Where it's a lot of jobs get lost sometimes because of new technology and then eventually economists will always say but new jobs come, but there's a gap there too. But one interesting thing about Amazon is a lot of companies are grappling with this like they have to make a huge investment. A is not cheap. So they have to make a big investment and the payoff might not come for a while. But I'm wondering if that matters to Amazon or if Amazon can just weather the storm. Whereas a lot of smaller companies might be a little more locked out.

[Brad Stone]

There's almost no way for these large tech companies to lose. Right. They are the beneficiaries of so much.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

It's so chilling.

[Brad Stone]

Yeah, there's so much experimentation that's happening. Such a industry wide business wide commitment to trying out these AI tools. Amazon's also building these data centers. That's $200 billion investment in CapEx this year. That momentarily alarmed investors and then they kind of came back and they fund most of that with their own balance sheet. So they're not doing the kind of risky lending that maybe some of the smaller competitors are. The big risk for Amazon is that for the original part of its business, for still the largest part of its business, the E commerce company that start shopping within ChatGPT or Claude that top of the funnel changes and these chatbots seem to customers to be like a far superior experience than the currently ad riddled Search results you would get in searching on Amazon. And so in some ways, Rufus, maybe you know, doesn't have to solve all of our problems as shoppers, but it does have to be kind of part of the Amazon moat and a reason if these shopping agents do take off, that people are compelled to stick with Amazon.

[Max Chatkin]

So much of this just feels very slippery to me. I mean we, we don't. The business wise or politically everything, the productivity gains have not come. The question of job losses is very much open. I mean you have companies saying they're laying people off with AI because of AI, but it's not totally clear that's the reason. You know, the concept that we've talked about AI washing or whatever. And you also have, including some of these technologists saying now being aware that it's maybe a bad look to talk about laying people off with because of technology, are now saying, oh no, no, AI is actually going to create lots of jobs. So like there's all this, the messaging is kind of confused. I do think there's risk to Amazon. The story that I wrote in this issue is about Ro Khanna, who's a congressman from Silicon Valley. I thought of him as basically the most pro tech member of Congress there was. He was out there talking about how great crypto was when crypto was controversial.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

A lot of his campaign money has got to be coming from tech.

[Max Chatkin]

His constituents are technologists and he is. And what my story is about is how he's basically turned against the industry. And I think he's doing it because he's trying to run for president and also because many people in the United States are turning against this stuff, these data centers. And I think this is going to be a risk for Amazon. I think Amazon has a risk of going through something similar to what Tesla went through, where maybe in a less pronounced way just because Jeff Bezos and the company is not seen as polarizing as Elon Musk is. But I don't know, like you even hear it in the, in the tape we played, people have ambivalent feelings.

[Brad Stone]

I agree with that. But I also think we should note that a billion people are using ChatGPT every week. AWS just hit its fastest growth rate in like several years. People are understandably nervous and maybe ambivalent about AI at the same time as another set of numbers show that they're doing everything they can to reveal preferences. Yeah, to experiment with it, to integrate it into their own lives. And I'm sure Andy Jassy is looking at the numbers. He told us that Alexa use has doubled since they rolled out Alexa. They seem very optimistic about Rufus, that yeah, maybe despite the political sentiment and the nervousness, people are embracing these tools.

[Max Chatkin]

It'll be interesting watching this play out over the next couple of years. We get an election in 2028 and there's going to be opportunities for customers to make their voices.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

I mean it's a huge issue. There are tons of protests like in the West Utah. There are, you know, there's a 40,000 acre data center going in and like just protests have erupted. People in places with lots of space and not a lot of political power are really upset. But there may be some victories. I just, I guess I'm skeptical because of the juggernaut that is AI that it will stop.

[Max Chatkin]

We will continue covering this. We will continue watching this. Brad will be back to update us on the next turn of the yes, please, the screw in tech and in all the quarters of power. Brad Stone, thanks for being here.

[Brad Stone]

Thank you guys.

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[Stacey Vanek Smith]

like Amazon have been a major part of the economic boom that we have been seeing a lot of that economic boom being fueled by AI or at least hopes about AI. And the stock market for the last couple years has just been on a tear going gangbusters.

[Sean Nguyen]

Yeah.

[Max Chatkin]

And it's kind of strange because we've been talking on this show all along about the kind of difficult news that the economy is confronting. Obviously there's potential questions about AI. There's also the war in Iran, oil. The price of oil has doubled consumer sentiment. It's not great, Stacey. And the Fed, even the Fed, the interest rates are not getting cut.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Yeah, we got some not awesome inflation numbers out this week and the price of everything has been going up pretty fast and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon. And there was a really interesting article that we came across from our friend of the show, Kyla Scanlon, about why this might be and what we should think about it. Kyla is the bestselling author of in this Economy. She joins us now. Welcome, Kyla.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Yeah, thanks for having me.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Okay, so very basic question. There are a lot of reasons why it seems like the market should not be on the tear they're on. What is going on? Why are they so exuberant?

[Kyla Scanlon]

I mean it's a, it's a good question. Like part of it is earnings. So like a lot of what's happening with the stock market right now is the companies are making a lot of money. Like the AI trade is really working out. But like what you said about energy prices also really matters because that puts a lot of pressure on companies historically. I mean, sometimes it doesn't. But the companies and the stocks are Kind of shrugging everything off, it seems. And there's this implicit assumption that AI will continue to carry the economy forward, that the data center build out will continue to happen, that the grid can support all of the data centers that are being built. The companies are going to adopt all of the AI and that will carry the stock market. Because the AI companies are such a big component of the s and P500 that, yeah, it just seems like nothing can slow it down.

[Max Chatkin]

The challenges that you're referring to, like, we should just spell them out. So I guess the big one is that Trump started a war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed as we're recording this, for six weeks. I guess something like that.

[Kyla Scanlon]

More than two months.

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah. And probably like, more importantly, shows no sign of reopening. And that is causing fuel crises in countries around the world. There's like. And on top of that, it creates inflation challenges. There's that that's happening. I mean, what are the other big economic challenges that. That in your mind should be the stock market should be responding to besides fuel prices?

[Kyla Scanlon]

I mean, I think it's just the uncertainty of it all. Like, I. For businesses right now, like, we don't even talk about tariffs anymore, but, like, that's still a thing that companies are having to deal with. The higher health insurance costs have led a lot of companies to pull back on hiring spend. So I think it's just kind of like the general environment, you would think would put a lot of pressure on companies. You would think that what's happening with the Federal Reserve, sort of the questions. Independence would cause the stock market to sell off a little bit, but it doesn't seem to care at all. You would think that the political path that we're on, where we're, you know, sort of objectively kind of fighting with our allies, would upset the stock market a little bit, but it doesn't seem to care. Like, it doesn't seem to worry about the fact that a lot of what our trade relationships are are, you know, requiring our friends to continue to exist, to have those friendships continue to be fruitful, not putting tariffs on other countries. So, I mean, it's just. It's kind of everything. You would expect the stock to go down, but maybe it's because everything is so crazy that it just goes up.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Well, also, interest rates, that's normally something the market really responds to. If interest rates aren't cut, you know, that can really slow the economy down. It makes borrowing more expensive, which can mean businesses and people borrow less and spend less, but that even that hasn't dampened the markets.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Nothing. Nothing has.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

So what. What do you think is going on?

[Kyla Scanlon]

So in this New York Times opinion piece that I wrote, I theorized that the markets expect to get rescued. So, like, every time something goes bad, you know, the stock market gets rescued by the Federal Reserve, and this is something the Fed has to do. I think it makes a lot of sense. It's very rational. But Greenspan did it, Bernanke did it, Powell did it during the pandemic. Because when you raise interest rates, as you were saying, like, people spend less money, you know, money's more expensive, people slow the economy down. So then ultimately, hopefully inflation goes down as sort of like the mechanism that interest rates move throughout, throughout the economy. And so if the stock market, or the economy rather needs more support, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, money gets more free, everything's a little easier. But the stock market now expects that rescue mechanism to take place. Like it's been saved for, you know, I guess. Is that like 40 years? Right. It seems like that is part of the reason that it refuses to go down is because they know that, that it doesn't have to.

[Max Chatkin]

Well, and we have a new kind of mechanism, which is taco or, or just this sense that Donald Trump cares a lot about the stock market.

[Kyla Scanlon]

But, yeah, the market just, the taco stuff only works to a certain extent. Like, you can only move things forward by narrative so much. And like, with the tariffs, it was kind of fine because you could pretend that you were taking them on and taking them off and you could push it out. But when you enter a war, you can't really be like, never mind. And so I think that's the issue that markets are wrapping their head around, so with this expectation of rescue. But, yeah, it doesn't seem like the strait's going to open anytime soon. It seems like it opens potentially right before futures open on Sunday nights. I think we get like, a little hint that it could open and then it closes again Monday morning.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

So let's say, you know, the markets think, okay, well, Trump is watching the markets. He's going to respond to this. He's not going to let things get really bad. And even if they do, will get bailed out. What is bad about that? Because, as Max said, like, having the markets be high is a good thing. It companies make more money, they tend to expand higher. Like, this seems not so bad.

[Kyla Scanlon]

I mean, I guess it just depends on your thoughts around if it's real. Like a lot of the companies, the earnings are up, profitability is up. But you don't want a market that is so detached from fundamentals when it comes time for, like, fundamentals to really matter. So I think the worry is that the market is not pricing risk properly. Like, it doesn't seem very aware that there's this, like, very big thing happening that it should have more of a concept around, rather than betting that this AI trade, which is reliant on the Strait of Hormuz being open, that that'll just carry us all through. So I think it's like, it's not a good or bad thing. It's just like the worry that the market's not properly understanding what's happening. And then that puts 401ks at risk, that puts retirees at risk. That puts the stability of the entire, like, American experiment at risk. So that's. That' a concern. Yeah, that's very dramatic. But like, we socialize retirement in the United States through the stock market. And we have an aging population. One in five Americans are going to be over the age of 65 by 2030. And we don't really have a plan for, like, what is going to happen. And so that's my concern, is that we're going to have an aging population that is not going to be able to retire because the stock market is not properly understanding the risk that it is before it.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

What about a bailout? I mean, let's say the stock market does not understand the risk properly. Like, why can't a bailout happen?

[Kyla Scanlon]

Like the rescue mechanism? Right. So it could happen, but then that puts the US Government even more extreme in the debt situation. I think debt to GDP just passed like 100%. There's a chart from the Wall Street Journal. You don't want a situation where you're always having to finance a way out of a crisis because that puts more pressure on the US Government, that puts more pressure on Social Security and Medicare. Like, the government can only spend money on so many things. So if all of a sudden it has to, you know, both the Federal Reserve and the US Government, if fiscal policy came in and saved the stock market a lot of pressure, if monetary policy has to come in and save the stock market a lot of pressure

[Max Chatkin]

on interest rates, this, this idea that AI is the, the last hope for this economy. I find this very concerning. As somebody who's followed the AI skeptics,

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

very serious AI skeptic.

[Max Chatkin]

Well, I mean, I do hope that the AI can save us all and will continue. But, but, you know, we have yet to see big productivity gains from any of this stuff. The, the history of, of productivity gains from other technologies suggest it could take a really long time for it to show up. So it feels like there is going to be at some point a, a sort of a reckoning around AI and just because asset prices are so high and because we have yet to see a lot of like a lot to show for all this investment and because there's a big political backlash that appears to be brewing that. Yeah, that would also put. And so what would an AI bailout look like to your mind? I mean you brought up some of the things in this times op ed some of the things that the Trump administration sort of already doing. Yeah. What, what, what would that look like? An AI bailout?

[Kyla Scanlon]

Yeah. So my, my colleague at the Vanderbilt Policy accelerator, he wrote this incredible paper called after the AI Crash where he goes into this in great detail. It's an excellent paper, highly recommend people read it. But he has all of these policy ideas prepared for like what it could have, what, what could we to an AI crash happening. And a lot of it is sort of separating things. So like separating the AI labs and the data centers, Glass Steagall for AI having maybe a public data center so

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

the public can especially regulation, government regulation, so much regulation.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Because we're doing the same thing that we did with social media where we're like let it ride and like let's see what happens. And it's a crazy, crazy experiment.

[Max Chatkin]

I have one other question. Maybe the market is just right, like a lot of smart people and, and you know, corporate profits are high. Like hey, like you know, this is, you guys are just doom saying, what's your kind of response to like maybe the market's right?

[Kyla Scanlon]

It might be. I mean, yeah, sure. But I think that if you just sort of look at the reality of what is happening in terms of the underpricing of, of the risk, like a lot of it doesn't make sense. And so I think if you look at the metrics and you look at the numbers, you can certainly point to the companies making a bunch of money. And like the AI company is spending a ton of money and like that's obviously going to some money in. But I think if you like dive just a little bit deeper into the other companies in S&P 500 that are not in the AI trade, you started to see where some of the cracks are forming.

[Max Chatkin]

Is Trump going to be like it's your patriotic duty to use ChatGPT for like 8 hours a day. Like I'm just trying to imagine he'll

[Kyla Scanlon]

have his own AI model. I do think there will be a Trump branded AI model.

[Max Chatkin]

It is honestly the more we talk about this, the more shocked I am that there isn't. Right. Because Trump companies and Trump's family business very good at like at sniffing out where the hot trend is.

[Kyla Scanlon]

It's a big deal.

[Max Chatkin]

You would think. Donald Jr. Write us, let us know. We could probably send you some other ideas. Everybody'[e-mail] that's right.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Yes, indeed. So Kyla, like what are you watching right now? What are the tells that you're watching? Kyla?

[Kyla Scanlon]

I don't even know anymore. I mean like there are no canaries. No, it's a really, it's good. Like I'm happy that I don't want the economy to fail. Yes, right. Like, I just think it's important to be like, hey, there's a huge, huge risk thing that like maybe the stock market isn't pricing in. And considering our demographic issue in terms of an aging population, we should really be paying attention to like how the stock market is pricing risk to make sure that people can retire properly because that's the way we retire people. So like that's why I keep harping on this, this problem. But I like the economy is astoundingly resilient. It is, Yeah. I mean that's interesting though because like the little treat economy is fascinating where there was a really interesting research paper that came out in November 2025 talking about the perception housing affordability and if people feel like they can't afford a home, they're more likely to take riskier investment decisions. So more likely to gamble on prediction markets or sports betting and then they're more likely to indulge in kind of like these little one off things like spend a bit more money on the

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

little treats because they're not saving for anything.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Yeah. Because they're like I'm never gonna afford a house. And that's kind of where I'm at. Like I, I don't really know how I like it just feels so out of reach and I think a lot of people are in that boat and you're just like, okay, sure, I'll get the nine.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Like the YOLO economy, right?

[Kyla Scanlon]

Totally. Total.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Well Kyla, you will have to come back as this thing shakes out and help us navigate through these crazy times. But thank you for joining us.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Thanks for having me.

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[Max Chatkin]

all right, Stacy, we have a special guest for today's underrated story. But first I need to share this email that we got in the Everybody's Business mailbox. Everybody'[e-mail] from Kyle about tickets. Remember we had asked this was a couple of weeks ago and we've been sitting on this because things got busy or whatever. Sorry, Kyle, but the email is so funny because we had asked what's the most you've ever spent on tickets? You know, we talked about. I forget what I said. A few hundred bucks. And Kyle took us on a journey from the most he had ever spent had been $25 to go to the Vans Warp tour in the early 2000s. Thousands to Nice. Then he went and he bought tickets on the early side to an ERAS tour show in Arizona.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

That would be Taylor Swift dollars.

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah. So that was the.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Seems like a pretty good deal.

[Max Chatkin]

Five point. Good. Kyle would agree with you because you will hear what happens next. Then he was so into it that they went to another show, a thousand dollars each in Southern California. Then a Taylor Swift show, also a Taylor Swift show. Then at the end of the US leg, they went a again, $1,300 a ticket. Then how big is the European leg? This is mostly him and his wife, although there's some friends and family thrown in there as well. Then there. Then they went on the European leg of the tour, $2,400 per ticket.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

And finally, still Taylor Swift. They were like, they were like Deadheads, but they were following.

[Max Chatkin]

$3,600. That's the most he has spent on a concert ticket. Now that was the Vancouver Eras tour. That was the. That was the end of the Eras tour. He wanted a see the ending. Kyle, I first of all, I thank you for this email. It is an awesome email. It really shows you how concert tickets have gotten more expensive, certainly. But also the way that that fandom can just draw you in, it does show.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

I mean, one of the big things that is very important to millennials, especially post Pandemic. One of the things that's been the big shift in spending has been people buying fewer goods and buying more services. People want experiences. Young people don't want stuff, they want experiences. And I do feel like this speaks to the fact that the experience of seeing Taylor Swift in concert, apparently so powerful. You travel the country and the world and shell out thousands to see the same songs and outfit changes because there is something so powerful in the experience.

[Max Chatkin]

All right, Kyle, thank you for the email listeners. Please write to us. Everybody'[e-mail] Shake it up off Stacy. Normally the underrated portion of the show, when we get here, it's just you and me.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

This is true.

[Max Chatkin]

But we have a special guest with us right here, Sean Nguyen, Bloomberg reporter, joining us to help with the underrated segment.

[Sean Nguyen]

Hey, Sean, thank you. Pleasure to be here.

[Max Chatkin]

Now, Sean has a new show. She is the host, the reporter of Foundering the Killing of Bob Lee, which is an excellent, excellent show about this murder in San Francisco. It gets to all these issues. Shawn, what kind of drew you to this story?

[Sean Nguyen]

I think I was drawn to it because I liked that there were a lot of different things going on. It was a story where every time you thought it was about one thing, it ended up being about something else.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

And describe. I feel like everybody saw the headlines, but there have been a lot of headlines. So briefly sum up the story. Cause I think most people will remember.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Sure.

[Sean Nguyen]

So three years ago in San Francisco, which is where I live, a tech executive was found stabbed to death on the street. And this was during a super sensitive time for the city. San Francisco was slow to recover from the pandemic. Downtown was hollowed out, and there was widespread fear of crime, which led to the recall of our progressive district attorney. And so then you had this very grisly, very mysterious seeming death. And it set off a wave of online fury. There were rumors, there were speculation, and some big names in the tech industry weighed in. You had David Sachs, who was saying that he bet dollars to dimes that Bob Lee was stabbed by a psychotic homeless person. And then you had Elon Musk disparaging the new da.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

So, Sean, we have a clip of your show to play and set us up a little bit. What are we about to.

[Sean Nguyen]

So the irony of all of the rumors and speculation was that, A, Bob Lee's actual killer was someone he knew, and B, that the police had their suspect almost immediately. They waited nine days to arrest Neema Momeni because they wanted to build a stronger case. But in those nine days, they were actually following him around, and they got this incredible piece of finish. The prosecution wanted the jury to pay attention to Nima's behavior after the stabbing. And for this, they introduced new evidence. A video of Nima made six days after Bob was killed, but before Nima was arrested. Omid Talai, the lead prosecutor, was at the police station when he saw it for the first time.

[Max Chatkin]

I remember Sergeant Gough calling, saying, hey, I'm headed back from South Bay. You gotta see this.

[Sean Nguyen]

Sergeant David Goff is an undercover cop who had been following Nima since the day after Bob was killed. Goff had recorded something he wanted to show the prosecutors.

[Max Chatkin]

And he wouldn't even really explain it to us. He just wanted us to see it. The homicide inspectors do not have these fancy offices. They're all kind of in cubes, cubicles, next other to each. Each other. So we were standing and Sergeant Goff put in the video and we just pressed play and you kind, I think a couple times he said, just wait. Just wait. Like just, just wait for it. Wait for it. Also, Stacy, there's a little Easter egg. People should check this out. Foundering the Killing of Bob Lee. Subscribe. Listen to it.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Is the Easter egg that you're in

[Max Chatkin]

one of the episode five.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Unbelievable.

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah. So, you know. But anyway, it's really worth your time and you should check it out and let us know what you think. Sean, you have an Underrated Story. That podcast, I'd say is fairly rated, rated highly, especially one of the episodes

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

you hear is quite excellent.

[Max Chatkin]

But we have an underrated story as well. Shawn, grace us with the underrated story.

[Sean Nguyen]

Okay, my underrated story of the week is the University of Central Florida student students who are graduating 2026 booing their commencement speaker, a woman named Gloria Caulfield.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Change is exciting, very exciting. And let's face it, change can be daunting. The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution.

[Kyla Scanlon]

Oh,

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

What happened? Okay, I struck a chord. May I finish? Only a few years ago, AI was not a factor in our lives. Okay, we've got a bipolar topic here. I see. Okay.

[Max Chatkin]

Sean, such a good choice. We were just talking about on the segment before you joined us with Brad Stone about the backlash to AI and wow, you really hear it in that audio. I mean, to me, the thing that's most surprising about this is it's not Berkeley, it's not the new school or something. It's the University of Central Florida. It's a big state college in the middle of Florida.

[Sean Nguyen]

Yes. And also just the very idea of a commencement address, Right. That you're graduating school, you've been school your whole life, and you're about to go into the world. Your university has invited someone who's older, wiser, and successful to give you life advice. But the thing is, there are some big generational changes that have really upset the natural order of this. So I'm a millennial. I'm a geriatric millennial. And one of the defining things about our generation is that a lot of the advice that we've received from our parents generation baby boomers were a lot of advice was irrelevant as we were coming of age. They grew up during a time without crushing student loans, when owning a house was more achievable, when upward social mobility was assumed. For this generation of kids, you have A whole generation that was sold on the idea that learning to code would be their golden ticket. And one of the first changes that we see from AI is the decimation of entry level computer programming jobs. And so graduating students are contending already with the effects of AI in a very real way and in a very negative way.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

I would say that I saw that a little differently because she calls it an industrial revolution. And I don't think of the industrial revolution as this totally positive thing. Like it was pretty brutal.

[Max Chatkin]

But that's what's so crazy about the clip. She's saying what basically what every business person in the world world thinks is conventional wisdom and then is being booed and then is surprised she didn't realize that these kids might not like AI. And I feel like she's not looked

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

at the unemployment numbers for people under 25.

[Max Chatkin]

Totally. And I, and I read these and I read like the story that Brad just wrote about Andy Jassy and read lines from executives basically saying very similar things. And it does feel like there's a whole big part of the world that they may not be listening.

[Sean Nguyen]

And I also think that what's satisfying about the clip is that the way that AI is presented to us is so top down.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Right.

[Sean Nguyen]

Big tech companies are talking about AGI, a superhuman super powerful intelligence that's going to transform our society and like steal our banking passwords. Exactly, exactly. And to see young people, a groundswell of young people booing, that's something that AI can't replace. We can still boo.

[Max Chatkin]

As a Mets fan, booing is very satisfying. Let me tell you. There is nothing like a good boo to get your feelings out in a public place. So I really relate to those University of Central Florida students. Although I've never booed AI, I've only booed underperforming members, only in other than New York Mets.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Wait, you boo your people?

[Sean Nguyen]

Sometimes I assume you would boo the other team.

[Max Chatkin]

Yeah, you boo the other team as well. But sometimes you have to no choice but to boo your own team. The show is called Foundering the Killing of Bob Lee. It is available on bloomberg.com we'll put a link in the show notes and wherever you get podcast. Sean Nguyen, thanks for being here.

[Sean Nguyen]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Stacey Vanek Smith]

Thanks, Sean.

[Max Chatkin]

This show is produced by Jasmine JT Green, Stacy Wong and Miles J. Herzenhorn. Magnus Henriksen is our supervisor. Producer Sam Rogich handles engineering and Dave Purcell fact checks. Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It means a lot to us. And if you have a story, that should be our business. If you want to confess to some out of control spending, email us@everybody's bloomberg.net that's everybody with an slumberg.net thank you for listening and we'll see you next week.

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