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- [00:01]
Akshat Rathi
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Akshat Rathi
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
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Akshat Rathi
account@bankofamerica.com bfarewards bank of America Corporation all rights reserved.
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
So there's a lot of noise about AI. But time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI
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Akshat Rathi
where it actually pays off.
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM Never bet
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
again against American Grit or American Energy through innovation.
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building.
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
That's Venture Global.
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
That's unstoppable energy.
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Akshat Rathi
More than 50 million people were killed between 1875 and 1878. The period is now remembered as the Great Famine. And one of the primary causes behind the famine was a naturally occurring phenomenon called El Nino. In fact, the 1877 El Nino is the strongest ever recorded. As of June, we have entered another El Nino event, and scientists are expecting this one to be very strong. Some call it a Super El Nino or even a Godzilla El Nino. So are we better prepared in 2026? There are, after all, five times as many people as in 1877, and the planet is 1.4 degrees Celsius hotter. This is zero. I am Akshat Rathi this week. Understanding a monster. Since 1970, our appetite for fossil fuels has been increasing. Global average temperatures by about 0.2 degrees Celsius every decade. That is typically how much a single El Nino event raises global average temperatures by and it does so by releasing vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean. So this El Nino will not just cause disasters around the world, but it will also give us a taste of what climate change could look like in 2035 if we continue to burn fossil fuels at the same rate. To understand the El Nino Phenomenon. I am joined today by Ming Fang Ting, professor of Climate at Columbia University. We talk about the science of El Nino, how prepared the world is, and how scientists are responding to the increased political attacks on an overheating planet. Professor Ming Peng Ting, welcome to Zero.
- [03:33]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Thanks for having me.
- [03:34]
Akshat Rathi
So we are about to enter what people are calling a super El Nino. Before we start to talk about the super part, can you just walk us through the very basics of what an El Nino is?
- [03:47]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
El Nino is one of the most influential climate pattern. It impacts not only the local region where it starts, which is the tropical Pacific, but it also impacts regions far from that region through something we call teleconnection. And it can cause droughts in some parts of the world and flooding in other parts, or hurricanes and other activities. So El Nino is a natural phenomena. And to understand why El Nino occurs, we have to start from the normal state. So during the normal state of the tropical Pacific, we have this steady trade winds that blows from the east toward the west, which basically pushes warm surface water that is exposed to the sunlight toward the west and forming something we call call the western Pacific warm pool. And the warm water there then fuels precipitation, the rainfall, convection and rainfall that leads to rainy climate in regions like Indonesia, northern Australia, and relatively cool climate in the eastern part of the Pacific, like the coast of Peru. And it also, the cooling, you know, the water, warm water being moved away also allows the deep cold and rich water come to the surface. That also helps the ecosystem there, allows fish to flourish in that region during El Nino, which is a disruption of this normal cycle. And what happens there is the wind tends to weaken, the trade winds tend to weaken, and that allows the warm water that is pushed toward the west to spread back toward the east, covering pretty much the majority of the tropical Pacific. The tropical Pacific is a huge basin. So that allows a lot of the heat from the surface to be sent back to the atmosphere, increases the global mean surface temperature, and causing convection changes that alters the atmospheric circulation, which means high pressure, low pressure in different regions. So that then leads to anomalous climate linked to surface temperature, as well as precipitation, droughts, and other phenomena.
- [06:24]
Akshat Rathi
And the opposite happens in a La Nina phase, where instead of the heat being released from the Pacific, more heat is stored in the Pacific.
- [06:33]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Right, exactly. So there is an opposite phase of the El Nino. We call it, Ansel, El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle. And the opposite phase is the intensification of trade winds. So the wind actually becomes abnormally strong that pushes warm water further to the west that allows the warm pool to shrink and that causes more or less opposite kind of impact to a lot of the global phenomena, climate phenomena, but not exactly. There are some asymmetries between the two.
- [07:10]
Akshat Rathi
And just so we understand, obviously the Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean by quite some distance. And when the heat from the Pacific Ocean is released or absorbed in these two phases, it has these global impacts because it can make a big global difference to average temperatures. Right. What is the range in which typically global average temperatures in increase or decrease during an El Nino versus a la Nino?
- [07:40]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Very good question. Yes. One of the things El Nino does is that, as I mentioned, that the surface water becomes warm across the entire Pacific, so that it allows more heat to be transferred from the ocean toward the atmosphere through this warm surface water. As you pointed out, Pacific is the largest ocean. So once it's all covered by warm water, that is a very big source of heat to the atmosphere. And that actually increases the global mean surface temperature by the order of something like 0.5 degree globally averaged. This is what happened in some sense.
- [08:22]
Akshat Rathi
0.5 degrees Celsius.
- [08:23]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Celsius, yes, half degree Celsius. This is what happened in 2324, the most recent El Nino. If you recall, there was this spike in the global mean surface temperature.
- [08:37]
Akshat Rathi
And now scientists are talking about a super El Nino. What is this definition of weak normal, big super El Nino, how is it measured exactly?
- [08:51]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
The strength of the El Nino is measured by what we call Nino indices. There are multiple indices. We basically average the surface temperature over a certain region of the tropical Pacific where we get the largest anomaly. So a normal El Nino is when that index is above 0.5 degrees over a certain period of time. And a strong El Nino would be above one degree. And a super El Nino would be something like above 2 degrees Celsius. All of them are in Celsius.
- [09:32]
Akshat Rathi
And right now there's a discussion that this is a Super El Nino. So do we know how much is the anomaly? Is it 2 degrees Celsius or more?
- [09:42]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Right now the probability in all of the forecasts are probabilistic. We based on multi model, so we estimate using statistical methods of what is the likelihood of this El Nino happening and what is the likelihood of it reaching certain strengths. So currently the model forecasts based on multiple models across the world is that there is 100% chance that El Nino will be happening. And it in fact already exists. The conditions, we're already seeing it. But even back in April, we knew quite high likelihood this Elninion is happening. And currently the chance of a super El Nino is about 63%. So it's above 60%.
- [10:30]
Akshat Rathi
And in terms of trying to understand the El Nino system's strength and weakness, what causes certain El Ninos to be bigger than other El Ninos?
- [10:41]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
That's a very good question, which is something that we are still researching. We know the mechanism of how El Nino happens, which is when you have the heat during the normal time, you have the heat being pushed toward the west and that heat is pushed toward ocean. In the La Nina phase, you know, including the normal phase, the heat is stored into the ocean and that ocean will be accumulating heat and taking a lot of heat from the atmosphere. And eventually it reaches a state that it can release that heat back into the atmosphere. And that is where El Nino will happen. Now, when exactly it releases that heat and what triggers it, we know a lot about it, but it's not like, you know, so there's a random chance, like the westerly, what we call westerly wind bursts is the reason, you know, it weakens the trade winds. And the question of how strong it will be depends on the amount of heat that is stored and other ocean conditions, ocean dynamics and the release process. So what we know for sure is the model takes into account all of these conditions and was able to predict how strong it might become.
- [12:05]
Akshat Rathi
And so this La Ninia El Nino phase, they cycle between two and seven years roughly, and do this process of absorbing the heat and then releasing the heat. This is a natural phenomenon that has been happening on the planet for a very long time.
- [12:20]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes.
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Akshat Rathi
Now, of course, over the last 200 years, we have been heating, heating up the planet by burning fossil fuels and adding to the greenhouse gas blanket, which is heating up the planet, but it's also heating up the ocean. Because when you're heating the atmosphere, this La Nina El Nino system, and of course the other oceans are absorbing the heat that's in the atmosphere.
- [12:41]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes.
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Akshat Rathi
Is it then that climate change, because of the heat being built up in the atmosphere, is supercharging the El Nino?
- [12:52]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
There are certainly possibilities that is happening, but currently the models are not showing us for sure that climate change, the global warming, fossil fuel induced global warming, is actually changing the behavior of the El Nino itself. So El Nino is still happening on a natural basis. It's ocean atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific. But what you said, you know, that is something that we are all thinking about, how much of it could be contributed by the fact that the ocean's taking up more Heat, Yes.
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Akshat Rathi
So the strongest El Nino on record is known to be between 1877 and 1878. And the various impacts that came from that El Nino and that were quite severe. You know, the world was much poorer a place back then. Something like 50 million people were killed across India, China, Brazil. That's about 3 to 4% of the global population at the time because of the droughts that happened and the famine that was caused. Now we are going into a strong super El Nino. Are we better prepared do you think in 2026, 27 with 8 billion people on the planet?
- [14:15]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
I hope so. I certainly Hope so, yes. 1876-78 is what we call the great famine period. It caused severe drought across the globe as you already mentioned, India, China, Africa as well Brazil. And those droughts obviously affected the crop yield. So crop failed in many, many regions. And one of the thing I would say the famine is obviously not directly caused by just crop yield drop that contributed, but a lot of it is policy as well. So people didn't know we are going to get into this period of, you know, droughts in multiple regions. So for example, India, you know, the crop trading at the was continuing like normal. So one of the things I would hope now we know is that we know exactly what's going to happen. I mean not exactly very high likelihood we are going into a super El Nino. So we can be better prepared in terms of what we can do about it. By the way, I should mention India rainfall is already reduced this year. We're already seeing the impact of this El Nino and I believe the onset of monsoons delayed, which partially also led to some of the contributed to the heat waves there earlier pre monsoon heat waves. So my hope is that people will be actually prepared in the sense of delayed planting, for example, for agriculture side of things and also not to export crops when drought. So yeah, I think there are a lot of ways and technology as well.
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
Yeah.
- [16:17]
Akshat Rathi
And in the recent decades when we have had technology both to make predictions about El Nino and then ideally make some policy changes, what are the recent strong El Ninos that have happened and what kind of impacts have they led to?
- [16:37]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
The most Recent one is 23, 24 El Nino. That one's actually really unusual. It's not a super El Nino, it's a strong El Nino. The index reached 1.5 degrees Celsius. So it is a strong El Nino, but it's not a super one. One consequence of that El Nino was the actual concurrent heat waves we experienced in July 23rd. You know, the summer of 23, and both summer of 23 and 24, in fact, we had lots and lots of heat waves happening across different continents. And I think that is, you know, as we talked earlier, is contributed partially by the increase in global surface temperature on top of already gradually increasing temperature.
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Akshat Rathi
Right. The heat waves we are experiencing are The El Nino 0.2 degrees Celsius temperature increase on top of the 1.2 or 1.4 degrees Celsius of climate change that we have caused. And that makes the heat waves even more extreme than they would have been had we not caused climate change.
- [17:50]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes, exactly.
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Akshat Rathi
And in that case, then, is it accurate to say that, you know, when we see this El Nino phase, we are sort of getting a flavor of what extreme weather would look like in five or 10 years as we continue, continue to burn fossil fuels and heat up the planet?
- [18:11]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Absolutely. I mean, we are definitely seeing the temperatures continue to rise. So on top of that, if we have another super El Nino like this upcoming one, then that adds to additional heat into the atmosphere. So that kind of, you know, higher global mean surface temperature. Obviously, the global mean, when we say the point 5.25 degrees Celsius is in the global mean, regional, it can be much higher. So they're not evenly distributed. So some regions may be up to 1 degree, 2 degrees. So that is a substantial amount being added. So we can definitely expect to see a lot more of concurrent heat when that happens. Which means basically you are seeing heat wave happening across different regions at the same time.
- [19:03]
Akshat Rathi
And let's just talk through some of the impacts we've mentioned. In the 1877 El Nino, the strongest ever, there were famines. But the thing that El Nino does is increases droughts in certain regions, but also increases flooding in other regions. It just changes rainfall patterns in multiple places. And both can have impact on agricultural yields. But as we've also become much more urban in the last two centuries, it can have massive impacts on cities and people. The 23, 24 El Nino, for example, had catastrophic floods in Kenya. And then there are other impacts from El Ninos that can come through. So the 2015, 2016 El Nino is known for having caused a lot of coral bleaching, especially in the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. What other impacts should people be aware of?
- [19:58]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Impact like wildfires. Wildfires is very severe. As we know, global warming already are causing drier conditions in many regions, like California, for example, southwestern U.S. and so that already increased wildfire risk. So in this case, El Nino is very well known to be Linked to increased wildfire risk in regions like Indonesia, northern Australia, eastern Australia, where the suppressed rainfall happens. When the rainfall shifts toward the Central Pacific, the warm water moves toward the east, the rainfall also moves with it. So that is causing a lot of the drying conditions there. And wildfire is one of them. As you pointed out, flooding is another common risk associated with El Nino. In regions like the California, south west, southern US and some part of Peruvian coast regions, there can be really severe flooding that can lead to landslides, for example, hazards like that.
- [21:14]
Akshat Rathi
One way in which one of the scientists explained to me the super part of the El Nino was to think about the things that put heat into the ocean which then eventually comes out. So one is because of human caused climate change, we are heating up the planet. Some of that heat is being transferred into the ocean. The other is the La Nina phase, which is a phase where there is more than normal heat that is absorbed by the oceans and then it gets stored in the Pacific. And typically an El Nino follows La Nina. And so you get, you get sort of a battery that is being charged, then that gets released in the El Nino. And then there are other factors that we are still to understand. And of course this is a very complex phenomenon. So all the factors are not yet understood. But is there any other factor that we should be thinking about on how much more heat is released in an El Nino?
- [22:13]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
I think you have covered most of it. Your understanding is so complete. I can't think of any additional factor that we haven't talked about. I think, you know, yes, ultimately we are still trying to understand better. One of the things you mentioned is La Nina before El Nino, which is a phase that heat is being put into the ocean storage phase. So there were studies indicating the longer the La Nina, La Nina seem, you know, tend to be lasting longer. Not this time. This time after the 23, 24 El Nino, we entered the La Nina phase and pretty much just ended right before this El Nino. So it wasn't a super long La Nina heat storage phase. So there are studies indicating longer La Nina phase could lead to stronger El Nino. But I don't think that is being widely accepted as a valid mechanism because we don't see that in data. So that could be one, you know, is how La Nina behaves right before El Nino that could determine the intensity of the following El Nino. But ultimately I think we still have a lot to understand.
- [23:39]
Akshat Rathi
And then one of the scientists I was listening to said, no two El Ninos are the same. What does that mean?
- [23:47]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Right. So first of all, yes, exactly. It means none of the no. 2. You can try to find exact replica of the El Nino's. They always differ in some ways. But I think what it means more is that even if you have identical El Nino, the impact will never be exactly the same. I think that is more of what we usually mean in the sense that El Nino is putting again the weight to the dice. So it's not the only factor. Rainfall patterns here and there, you know, droughts, all of that that can be impacted by multiple factors in the climate system. El Nino is just adding a weight to one direction. So depending on how the weather pattern itself evolves under certain El Nino condition, you can get very different impact in different regions.
- [24:54]
Akshat Rathi
After the break, I asked Professor Ming Fangting how climate scientists are responding in the face of increased political attacks. If you've learned something new from zero, please do give us a rating on your favorite podcast app. It helps new listeners find the show
- [25:14]
Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
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Professor Ming Fang Ting
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- [28:02]
Akshat Rathi
Now, this is all happening at a time where, at least in the US there are attacks from governments, from political actors on climate science itself. Now, climate science is not new to political attacks. These have happened over the past three decades in many different ways. And the climate scientists community, including yourself, have worked to try and figure out what is the best way to showcase the work that you're doing, why it helps people, what are the facts and how it allows us to prepare for a better world. But particularly in this period, there are direct impacts that can come through on people's lived experiences. So there was a recent proposal from the Trump administration to dismantle the ocean monitoring system that you talked about, which can help us predict an El Nino. Of course, of course, Congress has stopped that from happening. And so the ocean monitoring system will continue to support El Nino work for much longer. But as a climate scientist, how have you been affected?
- [29:14]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
We are all affected in different ways. One of the biggest impact is the funding itself. So all our works depend on funding, our graduate students, our postdocs and other facilities that we need to do the work. Myself, I'm not an observational climate scientist in the sense that I don't go out and collect data, but as you pointed out, that is a super important part of our research because we rely on data. And my work is mostly relying on model. So that needs supercomputer infrastructure like that to help us continue our research. So one of the things I wanted to bring up is climate science itself. It's a physical science, it's not really political, but I think we can communicate better in the sense it is kind of like you're thinking about throw a dice, you're really saying you're putting weight on certain high numbers. Climate change is basically doing that. You're not equal chance of getting all the numbers, but rather now you're getting the extremes more likely.
- [30:28]
Akshat Rathi
Yeah. And thinking about life in probability terms is very difficult for people in general, even for people who understand probability and who are working on statistical methods. And so that becomes a difficult issue to communicate. But one field that is emerging, that is trying to make this communication simpler, to say not all extreme weather is caused by climate change, but some we can clearly show the link to climate change and that science is extreme weather attribution science. Can you just walk us through what extreme weather attribution work looks like?
- [31:09]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes, this is a very mature science. Now we basically using models to help us understand what is likely this event happened, let's say European heat wave, currently we're all talking about it. So how likely this event would happen in a world without fossil fuel versus with fossil fuel. We run model runs with those two conditions and then get a probability of this kind of event happening. I don't know if you've heard read the news report, the World Weather Attribution Group has already done that and they're always really fast in producing that. And the conclusion there is that it's very unlikely this event would happen without fossil fuel contribution into the climate warming.
- [32:10]
Akshat Rathi
Yeah. We are recording this episode during the heat wave in Europe in June. And the study says that this is the worst recorded heat wave in Europe and that it would be virtually impossible without human caused climate change. Having run this model and, and one of the scientists who was involved in the study put it very plainly. It's Frederica Otto, she's a professor at Imperial College London. And she said, yes, this is climate change. Yes, it is us causing this climate change. No, it's not El Nino that is making this extreme heat wave worse. And then she adds, we have the solutions and we are not implementing them fast enough. And that clear communication is of course coming from a base of, as you said, a mat science. But there's already a layer of politics getting involved. Now the U.S. national Academies of science, Engineering and Medicine are conducting a study to look at attribution science. They did so a decade ago and now methods have improved and become more precise. And so they are doing another study to look at effectiveness of these methods. And there is an effort from political actors, some in the government, some in think tanks, who want to weaken attribution science's value because they worry that it'll be used in courts to try and hold powerful actors like governments or corporations to account. What can scientists do to ensure that attribution science doesn't come under these kinds of political attack?
- [33:55]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Again, attribution science itself is a science. So I'm not familiar with this new attribution study conducting on the National Academy of Science. But even if they redo it, they'll be using the best model available. And I can't imagine scientists would claim otherwise. The results are going to be what it is, but it is probabilistic. So even though it is virtually impossible, it doesn't mean it's completely impossible. This could happen without climate change. So communication like adding some kind of emphasis compared to 1970s. I think in their study they already done that compared to 1970s condition where fossil fuels already been burning for a while and it's about 200 times less likely in the 1970s condition. So I think, I think put out more numbers like this could help. So this is not something we just come sort of grab out of the thin air. I think I believe in scientists integrity. I think if people are truly believing they are exploring possibilities. The conclusions drawn by one group may not be be accurate. I'm totally for it. I think the more the better.
- [35:32]
Akshat Rathi
Yeah. And 200 times more likely or less likely is a huge number. Right. If suddenly somebody were to tell me if you cross the road Today, there's a 200 times more likelihood that you'll get hit by a car. I would be scared. I would take care about crossing the road. I would make sure that the traffic light is red and not crossover without that. Same thing with taking a plane or a. If you are going to die, then the Probability increases by 200 times.
- [36:02]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes.
- [36:03]
Akshat Rathi
You'd be very careful. And so people must heed what the statistics are telling us.
- [36:09]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
Yes. I think another example we can talk about is smoking. A lot of people believe smoking increases the chance of getting lung cancer. And I hope a lot of young people learn that and not stop smoking because they know the probability shift. Right. The odds change. So absolutely, I agree with you. The 200 times is huge number and we definitely should keep to that, you know, change our behavior in some ways.
- [36:42]
Akshat Rathi
Thank you, Ming Fang.
- [36:44]
Professor Ming Fang Ting
You're welcome.
- [36:50]
Akshat Rathi
And thank you for listening to zero. Now for the sound of the wheel. That is the sound of lava flowing from the most recent eruption of Mount Etna, which happened on 26 June on the Italian island of Sicily. If you like this episode, please Take a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Spotify. This episode was produced by Sommer Saadi and Oscar Boyd. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly. Special thanks to Blake Maples, Laura Milan, and Alyssa McDonald. I am Akshat Rathi Back soon.
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Bank of America / Advertisement Voice
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