Big Take – “What’s Trump’s Venezuela Endgame?”

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts)
Episode Date: November 7, 2025
Host: David Gura
Key Contributors: Nick Wadhams (Bloomberg National Security), Becca Wasser (Defense Lead, Bloomberg Economics)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the Trump administration’s recent surge in military action off Venezuela’s coast, officially aimed at combatting drug trafficking, but raising broader questions about U.S. objectives. David Gura discusses with national security and defense experts whether these aggressive maneuvers are about cartel crackdowns or regime change, and how Venezuela’s oil reserves and internal politics are influencing White House strategy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation of U.S. Military Strikes

• Recent Strikes: In the past two months, the U.S. has conducted a series of lethal strikes on vessels near Venezuela, justified as targeting narcotraffickers.
  • Quote:
    “The Trump administration says it's targeting narco traffickers.”
    — David Gura (00:46)
• Presidential Claims vs. Reality: President Trump claims each strike prevents 24,000 drug-related deaths in the U.S., based on the theory that sinking boats with fentanyl saves lives.
  • Quote:
    “The president keeps making this claim that every time he strikes one of these boats he prevents about 24,000 drug related deaths in the United States.”
    — Nick Wadhams (00:50)
  • Nick Wadhams notes the logic is “highly dubious,” more a political talking point than evidence-based policy (01:02).

2. Legal and Strategic Questions

• International Law Concerns: Experts argue these strikes violate international law and lack transparency regarding their true motivation.
  • Quote:
    “Experts say these strikes violate international law.”
    — David Gura (01:25)
• Speculation About Regime Change: The administration’s build-up of military assets is fueling speculation of a possible military intervention to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, beyond just narcotics enforcement.
  • Quote:
    “…it’s laying the groundwork for airstrikes or possibly even an invasion that would lead to Maduro’s ouster.”
    — Nick Wadhams (03:47)

3. Impact on Maduro and Venezuelan Politics

• Pressure and Tensions: There’s increased military alertness in Venezuela; Maduro is calling up troops and bracing for potential escalation.

  • Quote:
    “There’s no question that he is feeling the heat. He’s called up troops. He’s put his country on high alert.”
    — Nick Wadhams (03:59)

• Opposition Dynamics: Opposition leader Machado recently won a Nobel Peace Prize, advocating that pressure might force Maduro out—though some believe this could alternatively strengthen his grip.

  • Quote:
    “…actually by creating this extremely tense environment that only gives Maduro additional strength and support and attracts more people to his side…”
    — Nick Wadhams (04:38)

• Possibility of a Diplomatic Solution: Despite public posturing, Maduro is reportedly seeking a diplomatic and economic deal, possibly offering Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

  • Quote:
    “…he would prefer, vastly prefer a diplomatic solution to this... he was even looking for a strong economic deal where he would essentially sell all Venezuela's oil to the United States.”
    — Nick Wadhams (05:08)

4. Military Buildup and Capabilities

• Scale of Deployment: The U.S. has amassed significant sea, air, and special operations forces in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, including guided missile destroyers, an amphibious ready group, Marine Expeditionary units, and Special Forces.

  • Quote:
    “This is probably the most that we’ve seen in those two regions for quite some time…”
    — Becca Wasser (05:22)

• Strategic Ambiguity: Such a large presence is seen as disproportionate for simply interdicting drug boats—suggesting a show of force or prelude to broader action.

  • Memorable Quote:
    “When you're deploying an aircraft carrier strike group, and then you look at the size of the boats... there does seem to be a real imbalance.”
    — Nick Wadhams (07:09)

• Lack of Transparency: The administration has not publicly clarified why such extensive force is necessary for an anti-narcotics operation.

  • Quote:
    “We have not really been able to interrogate the administration in a public way about why precisely they feel… they need to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group and a submarine...”
    — Nick Wadhams (08:21)

5. What Could Happen Next? Wargaming Scenarios

• Becca Wasser’s Wargame Analysis (10:08):
  • Three likely scenarios:
    • Covert regime change with special operations (less likely).
    • High-visibility, multi-day strikes on infrastructure.
    • Counterterrorism-style strikes targeting cartel nodes and leadership.
  • Neither strike option boasts a strong record of success in stopping drug flows, raising policy efficacy questions.
    • Quote:
      “In both cases, there’s a fairly limited track record of success. And so that doesn't necessarily give me a lot of hope...”
      — Becca Wasser (11:32)

6. The Role of Oil in U.S. Calculations

• Competing U.S. Factions:

  • “Sanctions and Squeeze” — Led by Marco Rubio, advocating tighter economic sanctions to undermine Maduro by choking oil revenues.
  • “Deal-making Approach” — Embodied by Richard Grinnell, advocating lifting sanctions and negotiating large-scale oil trade with the U.S.
  • Quote illustrating the divide:
    “Let’s make Venezuela the 51st state of the United States.”
    — Nick Wadhams, describing Grinnell’s thinking (12:54)

• Current Policy Direction: The hardline Rubio camp is prevailing; no major U.S. oil deals or relaxation of sanctions are expected soon.

• Trump’s Legacy Calculus: Trump’s strategy is shaped by his self-presentation as a “peace president,” making a protracted conflict or invasion appear less likely—unless shifting to a negotiation can be sold as a business breakthrough.

  • Quote:
    “…is he willing to enter into a lengthy air campaign against Venezuela when it goes against so much of the reasons why he said he deserved to be president a second time?”
    — Nick Wadhams (13:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The president keeps making this claim that every time he strikes one of these boats he prevents about 24,000 drug related deaths in the United States.”
  — Nick Wadhams (00:50)
• “…laying the groundwork for airstrikes or possibly even an invasion that would lead to Maduro's ouster.”
  — Nick Wadhams (03:47)
• “This is probably the most that we’ve seen in those two regions for quite some time.”
  — Becca Wasser (05:22)
• “There does seem to be a real imbalance balance there.”
  — Nick Wadhams (07:13)
• “In both cases, there’s a fairly limited track record of success. And so that doesn't necessarily give me a lot of hope...”
  — Becca Wasser (11:32)
• “Let’s make Venezuela the 51st state of the United States.”
  — Nick Wadhams, paraphrasing Richard Grinnell (12:54)

Timestamps for Critical Segments

• 00:24 — Rising U.S. military action off Venezuela.
• 01:25 — International law and real motivations behind the strikes.
• 02:49 — Regime change suspicions and Maduro’s response.
• 05:22 — Detailed U.S. military buildup in the region.
• 07:09 — Imbalance between targets and U.S. military deployment.
• 10:08 — Wargaming scenarios for military escalation.
• 12:08 — Oil’s central role in U.S. strategy and conflicting camps in the Trump administration.

Conclusion

This episode of “Big Take” pulls back the curtain on the Trump administration’s evolving and ambiguous approach to Venezuela. While claims of fighting drug traffickers are front and center, the size and scale of the U.S. build-up, internal White House debates, and the ever-present lure of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves suggest a complex mix of motives and possible outcomes—ranging from military confrontation to back-channel business deals. The episode highlights U.S. ambiguity, divided strategy camps, and the high-stakes implications for Venezuelan politics and regional stability.