Podcast Summary: Big Take — "Why Beef Is Getting So Pricey" (February 17, 2026)

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Bloomberg’s Big Take explores the surprising rise in beef prices in the United States, even as broader inflation has cooled. Hosted by David Gura, the discussion unpacks the complex web of factors driving "beef-flation," from supply chain shocks and production costs to consumer demand and political response. Bloomberg’s Enda Curran provides expert commentary, with additional on-the-ground insights from cattle ranchers Casey Scherler and Patrick Montgomery.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Beef Price Inflation Defies Broad Trends

• U.S. inflation in general has slowed, with drops in energy, used cars, and eggs ([02:26]).
• Beef’s exception: The broad beef and veal category in the consumer price index rose 15% over the last year, bucking the overall trend ([03:03], [05:27]).

2. What’s Behind the Beef Price Surge?

Overlapping Factors:

• Shrinking Cattle Herds: The U.S. herd is at a 75-year low, due to drought, disease, and other headwinds ([05:54], [08:11]).

• Soaring Production Costs: High interest rates, expensive feed and equipment, and labor shortages are squeezing ranchers ([03:29], [04:09], [09:25]).

• Demographic Change: Many ranchers are reaching retirement, and fewer new ranchers are entering the field ([05:54]).

• Disease Threats: New World screwworm, detected near Texas, raises additional risks ([06:24]).

• Supply Chain Squeeze: It's harder for ranchers to get cattle to meatpacking facilities and for meat to reach stores quickly enough to match demand ([06:35]).

Quote:

“The number of cattle in the US is at an all time 75 year low... the cattle cycle naturally goes through these periods of expansion and contraction. We’re in a period of contraction and we can’t legislate our way into a bigger calf crop next quarter or even next year because biology is slow.”
— Casey Scherler, Cattle Rancher [08:11]

3. Ranchers’ Realities: Not Benefiting from High Prices

• Misconception: Many assume high beef prices benefit ranchers, but volatility and rising costs threaten financial sustainability ([04:00]).
• Extended Production Cycle: It takes years to rebuild the herd; there's no quick fix ([08:11]).
• Capital Challenge: Expanding herds is expensive, and profit expectations are falling ([19:21]).

Quote:

“A lot of ranchers out there are essentially paying for the privilege of working 80 hour weeks... the capital requirements are huge and the returns are not.”
— Casey Scherler [19:21]

4. Consumer Demand Adds Pressure

• Americans want more beef, including higher-end varieties like Wagyu. This puts additional pressure on already constrained supply ([09:58]).
• Price Impact on Entire Supply Chain: Only those selling calves are seeing financial upside (“hot demand”), but feedlot operators and meat processors are squeezed ([06:54]).

Quote:

“If you’re at the very start of a supply line... you should be making money. The further along the supply line you go... it’s getting a lot harder.”
— Enda Curran [06:54]

5. Politicians Respond as Beef Becomes a Hot Political Issue

• White House Action: President Trump has cut tariffs and increased beef imports (notably from Argentina) in an attempt to stabilize prices before midterms ([15:41], [16:54]).
• Antitrust Initiatives: DOJ probes target large meatpackers, with accusations of anti-competitive practices ([17:59]).
• Limitations: While importing helps short-term, it raises tensions with U.S. ranchers and doesn't quickly rebuild domestic supply ([17:29]).

Quotes:

“President Trump has spoken about the need to import more beef from Argentina... he’s brought down tariffs and imported beef. And we know they’re taking actions to boost competition among meat processors.”
— Enda Curran [15:41]

“Protecting our American cattle and rancher industry is a priority for the president.”
— White House Press Secretary, Caroline Levitt [17:05]

6. The Fed and Beef-Driven Inflation

• Policy Implications: The Federal Reserve remains alert to pockets of persistent inflation—including beef—but won’t adjust monetary tools based on beef prices alone ([11:07]).
• Core Message: "Beef-flation" exemplifies how some essentials can keep cost of living high and affect voters’ perceptions ([05:27], [15:28]).

Quote:

“The price of a hamburger is not going to change the trajectory for U.S. monetary policy... but it builds into the picture that the inflation story in the U.S. has not yet totally gone away.”
— Enda Curran [11:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:00] Casey Scherler:
  “I think a lot of people assume that when cattle prices are high, it must be really good for ranchers right now, but it’s actually a really challenging and volatile time.”

• [08:11] Casey Scherler:
  “There’s no quick fixes... we can’t legislate our way into a bigger calf crop next quarter or even next year because biology is slow.”

• [19:21] Casey Scherler:
  “A lot of ranchers out there are essentially paying for the privilege of working 80 hour weeks and this math is, is really sobering.”

• [15:41] Enda Curran:
  "The White House has made several pronouncements on beef prices. President Trump has spoken about the need to import more beef from Argentina..."

• [17:29] Enda Curran:
  "Ranchers... are not especially sure their solution to their issues is imported beef from Argentina..."

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic/Quote | Speaker | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------| | 02:26 | Cooling U.S. inflation, except for beef | David Gura | | 03:03 | 15% rise in beef prices | David Gura | | 04:00 | "It's actually a really challenging and volatile time" | Casey Scherler | | 05:54 | Factors: shrinking herds, disease, costs | Enda Curran | | 06:24 | Screwworm disease risk | David Gura | | 06:54 | Hot demand for calves, supply chain split | Enda Curran | | 08:11 | Four-year cattle cycle; no fast fixes | Casey Scherler | | 09:58 | Consumer demand, Wagyu example, restocking woes | Enda Curran | | 11:07 | Fed and beef prices | Enda Curran | | 15:41 | Politics: White House, Trump action, egg comparisons | Enda Curran | | 16:54 | New Argentine beef import deal | David Gura/Levitt | | 17:59 | Meat packers, antitrust probe, Tyson's losses | David Gura | | 19:21 | Ranchers “paying for the privilege” | Casey Scherler |

Conclusion

“Why Beef Is Getting So Pricey” pulls back the curtain on a deceptively simple grocery store reality. The episode makes clear that beef inflation is a deep-seated problem with biological, economic, and political roots. Ranchers face thin margins despite high prices, policymakers struggle for fixes that appease everyone, and American consumers contend with higher grocery bills—all while solutions will take years, not months, to take effect.

If you haven’t listened, this episode offers both a down-to-earth and macroeconomic look at a slice of the living inflation story, showing how food, politics, and policy intersect in ways that affect us all.