Why China Is Flashing Its Military Muscle

Summary

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Big Take – Why China Is Flashing Its Military Muscle

Podcast: Big Take (Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts)
Date: July 7, 2026
Host: Wan Ha
Guest: Rebecca Chung Wilkins (Asia government and politics journalist at Bloomberg)

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into China's recent display of military force—specifically, a highly publicized submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test—and investigates what it signals about Beijing's strategic ambitions. Drawing on a recent Bloomberg investigation, the episode explores the rapid expansion of China’s missile arsenal, the growing transparency surrounding its defense sector, and what this means for China’s global military posture, regional neighbors, and its rivalry with the United States.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Missile Test: What Happened and Why It Matters

• China's SLBM Test:
  On Monday, China conducted the first full-range, publicly acknowledged test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) into the Pacific, shocking neighbors and global observers.
  [01:49] Wan Ha: “China test fired a long range ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, rattling its neighbors and putting a display of military capability on the global stage that hasn't been seen from Beijing in years.”
• Trajectory and Regional Reaction:
  The missile flew over the exclusive economic zones of several Pacific nations, landing northeast of the Solomon Islands. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand—who were given short notice—swiftly condemned the move.
  [02:27] Wan Ha: “Japan, Australia and New Zealand, who were all notified shortly before the launch, swiftly condemned the test, calling it concerning and destabilizing for the region.”
• First of Its Kind:
  While not China's first sub-launched missile, it was the first full-range and public test into the Pacific, signaling new openness and capability.
  [02:51] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “It's not the first time that it's launched from a submarine, but it's the first full range test and it's the first time we've seen it launched into the Pacific at this distance and also publicly.”

2. Strategic Significance of the Missile Capability

• Nuclear Triad and Deterrence:
  The test highlights the final leg of China’s “nuclear triad”—the ability to strike from land, air, and sea, which is central to mutual deterrence logic (mutually assured destruction).
  [06:11] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “You want to be able to respond from land, from sea, and from the air... this specific leg of that triad is the sea-based capability. And it is a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence.”
• Range and Reach:
  The likely missile, JL3, is estimated to reach up to 9,000km—putting the US mainland within theoretical range.
  [07:30] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “Chinese media has experts citing that it's probably a JL3 and that has an estimated range of about 9,000km. The big issue, of course, is that it could reach the continental U.S.”

3. The Symbolism and Timing

• Message to the World & The US:
  The public nature of the test is interpreted as a strategic signal—to match public US military tests, assert regional power, and project new “normal” military behaviors. [05:14] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: "There is this interpretation that it's not just the capabilities which are concerning but the fact that this is some kind of strategic signal... showing that they can apparently perhaps match the US which regularly tests these kinds of SLBMs."
• Geopolitical Context:
  The test comes just before the NATO summit, coincides with major US-led naval drills (RIMPAC), and follows a new Fiji-Australia alliance, underscoring its message and timing. [08:23] Wan Ha: “It comes before the start of the NATO summit... and it's on the heels of a new alliance between Fiji and Australia. What kind of message is Beijing trying to send with this timing?”
• Deliberate or Routine?
  While the event is public, some experts suggest the test was routine and long-planned, not solely timed for maximal messaging impact. [08:47] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “China's military is essentially this huge, lumbering bureaucratic machine and that a test like this would have been months in the works possibly longer... this is part of China’s wider push for military readiness as well as this proud projection at this moment where all corners of the globe are essentially arming up.”

4. Regional and Diplomatic Fallout

• Mixed Responses & China's Stance:
  Countries in the region—Japan, Australia, New Zealand—expressed deep concern, fearing a new recurring pattern and regional instability. [10:11] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “New Zealand specifically has picked up on this concern that this may be a recurring pattern.” Meanwhile, China maintains its “no first use” nuclear policy. [10:11] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “China itself does maintain it has a no first use policy when it comes to nuclear and... argues that nuclear deterrence from its point of view is actually adding to international stability.”
• US Response and Notification Practices:
  The US condemned the test, noting that it does not further nuclear non-proliferation efforts and reportedly was not notified by China—a possible diplomatic misstep. [10:52] Wan Ha: "A State Department spokesperson condemned the launch saying ... China is doing the opposite [of nuclear non-proliferation]." [11:20] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “If indeed this is a JL3 missile, this is obviously also a very clear demonstration of a missile that U.S. experts say could target the continental U.S.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Xi's big ambition here is about having a so called modern military. And the target he has always set himself is the 100th anniversary of the PLA and that falls in 2027... this might be a new sort of normal.”
  — Rebecca Chung Wilkins [03:53]

• “You want to be able to respond from land, from sea, and from the air... this specific leg of that triad is the sea-based capability. And it is a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence.”
  — Rebecca Chung Wilkins [06:11]

• “The big issue, of course, is that it could reach the continental U.S.”
  — Rebecca Chung Wilkins [07:30]

• “I think we can make a stronger argument that this is part of China’s wider push for military readiness as well as this proud projection at this moment where all corners of the globe are essentially arming up.”
  — Rebecca Chung Wilkins [08:47]

• “China itself does maintain it has a no first use policy when it comes to nuclear and essentially it argues that nuclear deterrence from its point of view is actually adding to international stability.”
  — Rebecca Chung Wilkins [10:11]

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Bloomberg Investigation: The Secretive Missile Program (from 14:59)

5. Expanding the Missile Arsenal

• Scale and Growth:
  China’s missile arsenal is not publicly disclosed, but US Pentagon estimates suggest rapid growth—over 3,000 ballistic missiles and 300 ground-launched cruise missiles as of 2024, a jump of nearly 150% since 2015. [16:05] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “The Pentagon estimates that China has at least 3,000 ballistic missiles and 300 ground launched cruise missiles as of 2024. And that is a pretty pretty big jump from their estimates from 2015.”

• Corporate Supply Chain Analysis:
  Bloomberg's review of nearly 400 corporate filings revealed a surge in missile component production. The number of companies disclosing missile-related production doubled under Xi, with many reporting record revenues in the past year. [17:10] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “We found the number of firms that disclosed producing key missile components rose to about 80 last year... That's more than double [from] Xi's first year in office.”

6. Military Cleanup and Internal Shake-up

• Massive Purge:
  Xi Jinping has overseen the biggest purge of top military officers in over 50 years. Ostensibly about anti-corruption, it’s also about consolidating power and ensuring military preparedness. [18:27] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “We are seeing the biggest purge of top officers from the Chinese military in about half a century. This anti corruption campaign... was a form of also ousting political rivals and cementing his own authority politically.”

• Motivations and Risks:
  Analysts are split: does the purge signal Xi’s confidence and control—or reflect hidden vulnerabilities and concerns about the PLA’s readiness (especially for possible action against Taiwan)? [19:45] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “On the one hand, ... this is coming from a place of confidence... But on the other hand you also have people that argue... the fact that he is having to reshuffle at the highest echelons of the military shows that there are vulnerabilities and weaknesses that he cannot ignore, particularly if any kind of military action is on the table.”

7. The Taiwan Factor and Future Outlook

• Ambitions for a Modern Military:
  Xi has set 2027 (the PLA’s 100th anniversary) as the deadline for building a “modern military”—fueling speculation about a potential Taiwan invasion timeline. [20:49] Rebecca Chung Wilkins: “This focus of having a modern military that essentially can take on and is a leader globally and... that can rival the US has been a priority... and this deadline and this date has been a real focus of President Xi since he came to power.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|--------------| | Introduction, Missile Test Recap | 01:49–03:53 | | Explanation of SLBM and Nuclear Triad | 06:11–07:20 | | Missile Range and Potential Threat | 07:30–07:55 | | Regional & Diplomatic Reaction | 10:11–11:20 | | US-China Diplomatic Fallout | 10:52–12:29 | | Bloomberg Investigation (Missile Supply Chain)| 15:16–18:13 | | Military Purge and Leadership Shake-up | 18:27–20:43 | | Xi's Ambitions, Taiwan Focus & 2027 Timeline | 20:49–22:12 |

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Conclusion

The episode offers an incisive look at why China is choosing to publicly display its advancing military technology now, the intended (and unintended) messages it is sending to the world, and the broader context of regional anxieties and superpower rivalry. As China’s missile program becomes both more robust and more visible, its leadership under Xi Jinping is racing to modernize—aiming for a military that matches its global ambitions and challenges established power structures, especially vis-à-vis the United States.

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For listeners interested in military strategy, US–China relations, and Asia-Pacific security, this is an essential update on one of the world’s most consequential power shifts.

Transcript

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[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

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[Wan Ha]

China test fired a long range ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, rattling its neighbors and putting a display of military capability on the global stage that hasn't been seen from Beijing in years.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

The missile it flew over the exclusive

[Nathan Hager]

economic zones of the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru and Kiribati and landed about 1,000 kilometers northeast of the Solomon Islands.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Australia has been clear that this proposed test is in the context of a rapid military buildup by China, which is

[Wan Ha]

Japan, Australia and New Zealand, who were all notified shortly before the launch, swiftly condemned the test, calling it concerning and destabilizing for the region.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

China was conducting the first full range test of a Chinese submarine launched ballistic missile.

[Wan Ha]

Rebecca Chung Wilkins covers Asia government and politics for Bloomberg.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

It's not the first time that it's launched from a submarine, but it's the first full range test and it's the first time we've seen it launched into the Pacific at this distance and also publicly.

[Wan Ha]

This past year has been a big one for China's military. A recent Bloomberg investigation showed that the country has ramped up its missile production last Year's missile buildup was was the biggest expansion since President Xi Jinping took office in 2013. Back in September, while reviewing a military parade, President Xi gave a clear directive. He said China's soldiers must accelerate the building of a world class military. And Rebecca says this week's missile launch was a highly public flex. One that signals Beijing believes it's on track to build one of the world's most powerful militaries.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Xi's big ambition here is about having a so called modern military. And the target he has always set himself is the 100th anniversary of the PLA and that falls in 2027. It's not just the capabilities which are concerning, but the fact that Beijing appears to be projecting its power. So one big issue for neighboring countries and of course for the US is that this might be a new sort of normal.

[Wan Ha]

This is the big tech Asia. From Bloomberg News, I'm Wan Ha. Every week we take you inside some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show what a surprise missile test says about China's willingness to flex its military muscle and what a Bloomberg investigation reveals about Beijing's secretive defense sector and the country's growing arsenal. Now Rebecca, China just conducted a missile test that drew criticism from Japan, New Zealand, Australia and the United States. What was it testing and why did it set off so many alarm bells?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

So China essentially was conducting the first full range test of a Chinese submarine launched ballistic missile. So this is essentially a ballistic missile launched from a submarine and it landed in the Pacific, so about northeast of the Solomon Islands. And it's one, one of the more advanced so called SLBMs that it's tested. I think most experts would know and probably assume and understand that China has this capability but we haven't seen China do this before publicly. And so there is this interpretation that it's not just the capabilities which are concerning but the fact that this is some kind of strategic signal. And one part of that is essentially showing that they can apparently perhaps match the US which regularly tests these kinds of SLBMs.

[Wan Ha]

And what did Beijing demonstrate about its capabilities with this test that we hadn't seen before?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

So essentially these types of ballistic missiles are one key part of China's fuller nuclear deterrent capability and fuller ability to hit back against any nuclear attack. So this is sometimes referred to as its second strike capability. And that's essentially a country's ability to retaliate if they were to be hit by A nuclear strike. And there are three key elements of that, right? So the sort of so called nuclear triad, you want to be able to respond from land, from sea and from the air. And so this specific leg of that triad is the sea based capability. And it is a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence. And so sort of like mutually assured destruction, right? It's a cornerstone as Beijing sees it and as other countries around the world see it, from deterring other countries from attacking you with nuclear power. It is also worth mentioning that testing your srbms at full range is something you would do as a normal part of operations to make sure that everything worked both for your own peace of mind and to establish deterrence. It's something the US does all the time.

[Wan Ha]

Now we know this missile had a dummy warhead. What sort of a payload is it designed to carry and how far can this missile travel?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

So experts say this is likely a test of either a JL2 or this newer JL3 missile. Both of them are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Chinese media has experts citing that it's probably a JL3 and that has an estimated range of about 9,000km. The big issue, of course, is that it could reach the continental U.S. now,

[Wan Ha]

how rare is it for China to launch a missile test like this out into the open sea?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

So we have seen certain instances in the past, and the one that really comes to mind is back in 2024, China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. So when we think back to that nuclear deterrence triad, this would be in that land category. And that was concerning back at the time. It was the first time they'd tested that kind of missile in that format for about four decades.

[Wan Ha]

Let's talk a little bit about the timing here. This comes before the start of the NATO summit. The US is in the middle of the annual RIMPAC naval drills it hosts with more than dozen other countries around Hawaii. And that of course excludes China. And it's on the heels of a new alliance between Fiji and Australia. What kind of message is Beijing trying to send with this timing? You think so?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

This is a really interesting question because there's so much ambiguity and it is, to be frank, being really hotly contested by nuclear experts and political scientists at the moment. What does the timing mean? So on the one hand, this is a public event and clearly intended and expected to be visible. But there is another line of argument here, which is that China's military is essentially this huge, lumbering bureaucratic machine and that a test like this would have been months in the works possibly longer. So I think rather than sort of debating necessarily the significance of this day or this particular date right at this moment, particularly as you think of the NATO summit, the RIMPAC exercises, I think we can make a stronger argument that this is part of China's wider push for military readiness as well as this proud projection at this moment where all corners of the globe are essentially arming up.

[Wan Ha]

Now, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry has sought to downplay Monday's test, saying that Beijing warned relevant parties in advance and complied with international law. She added that the test wasn't directed at any country in particular and urged people following these developments to, quote, not over interpret this. Which countries in the region might see this though as a provocation.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Japan has expressed its concerns over China's increasingly active military activities. Essentially it doesn't want ballistic missile launch training in its airspace or territory. And Australia and New Zealand have both also expressed that essentially this is an unwelcome development. New Zealand specifically has picked up on this concern that this may be a recurring pattern. And I do think it's important to note that while countries have expressed their concerns, China itself does maintain it has a no first use policy when it comes to nuclear and essentially it argues that nuclear deterrence from its point of view is actually adding to international stability.

[Wan Ha]

I want to shift to the US for a bit. A State Department spokesperson condemned the launch saying, quote, at a time when the United States is working harder than ever to prevent nuclear proliferation, China is doing the opposite. Rebecca, it's not entirely clear that China even notified the US of this test. If that is indeed the case from a diplomatic standpoint, how problematic is it? If the US wasn't even informed, the

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

US has clearly expressed its displeasure. And if indeed this is a JL3 missile, this is obviously also a very clear demonstration of a missile that U.S. experts say could target the continental U.S. it's also one worth considering that China may also be testing this sort of so called constructive relationship of strategic stability. That's the new phrasing that it's using to describe the relationship between China and the US After President Trump and presidency had that sit down, which for all intents and purposes did seem like a sort of reset of relations and at least putting relations on a more stable if not positive footing. I'm not necessarily sure that it's fair to say Beijing is doing this specifically to provoke the US or with knowledge that it is going to be a deliberate and a clear provocation. I think Beijing has shown that it is keen to stabilize ties and to keep ties stable. But the US is also going to be facing pressure from its allies in the region who are feeling this threat to and are feeling under threat.

[Wan Ha]

After the break, what a Bloomberg investigation reveals about China's secretive missile program and how it fits into President Xi's military ambitions.

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[Wan Ha]

I'm back with Rebecca Chung Wilkins, who covers Asia, government and politics for Bloomberg. China is seemingly both expanding its missile program and being more open about that program. Rebecca, how does this fit into China's broader defense strategy?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

So I think there's two elements here. The first is thinking about the sub launch missiles and the key element is nuclear deterrence. More Broadly, I think there is of course, this issue of Taiwan front and center. Taiwan continues to be a real focal point for Beijing. Beijing sees it essentially as a renegade province of China that it is inevitably going to, as it would say, reunify with. And bolstering that missile capacity is critical to any attempt if China were to try and forcefully take Taiwan.

[Wan Ha]

I want to talk a little bit about what we know about the missile program. Let's start with the publicly available information. Just how big is China's missile arsenal?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

China doesn't make the size of its arsenal public. And as you would expect, details about lots of its missile supply chain are pretty scarce. So the Pentagon estimates that China has at least 3,000 ballistic missiles and 300 ground launched cruise missiles as of 2024. And that is a pretty pretty big jump from their estimates from 2015. So about nearly 150% more ballistic missiles than they estimated they had back in 2015. That's essentially when the US started systematically disclosing their own estimates on Beijing's missile arsenal. But it is worth stressing they are only estimates.

[Wan Ha]

If that's true, it's quite an expansion.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Yes, we've seen a major expansion. And there are other signs too that kind of indicate this big ramp up.

[Wan Ha]

Well, Bloomberg recently did an analysis of Chinese corporate filings that pointed to ramped up missile production.

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[Wan Ha]

Wonder if you can talk us through what that project found.

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Yes, so essentially we examined nearly 400 listed firms to basically try and get a look under the hood of China's missile program. And through that analysis, we found companies that were directly tied to the missile supply chain. So firms that produce things like for example, infrared sensors or stealth coatings. We found that China's missile production appears to be booming. And it's really all down to this sort of network of little known companies. So we found the number of firms that disclosed producing key missile components rose to about 80 last year. And if you compare that to Xi's first year in office, that's more than double. And then again, when you look and drill down within that group, we also saw that last year had the highest percentage of companies reporting record revenues of any during Xi's tenure. So again, our analysis indicates that that's a result of a surge in new orders that was intended to expand China's missile program.

[Wan Ha]

Now, at the same time, China is also undergoing a massive cleanup of its military, the People's Liberation Army. Right. Tell us about Beijing's campaign. Why is President Xi shaking up the military leadership now?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

Essentially we are seeing the Biggest purge of top officers from the Chinese military in about half a century. But this anti corruption campaign actually kicked off as soon as Xi came into power and in many ways was a form of also ousting political rivals and cementing his own authority politically. But we then saw this military purge kick off really in full force in 2023. And we had these investigations into the rocket force and into this issue of military procure. And there were very, very high profile departures. So former defense ministers expelled from the party, as well as a host of other officials and senior leaders and other folks lower down the rungs. And it reached the Central Military Commission, which is essentially the body that oversees the pla. It's chaired by President Xi. And the real concern at the heart of it was military preparedness. Was this anxiety or this concern that if corruption is rampant with the military, that perhaps is concealing its real capabilities. So analysts are pretty conflicted about what is the intention and why the cleanup is really happening right now. On the one hand, you have some people that argue that this is coming from a place of confidence that she feels secure enough to reshuffle hand have this enormous amount of disruption at the highest levels of his military. But on the other hand you also have people that argue essentially the opposite, that the fact that he is having to reshuffle at the highest echelons of the military shows that there are vulnerabilities and weaknesses that he cannot ignore, particularly if any kind of military action is on the table. The unspoken anxiety that some experts point to is essentially this concern that if there is rampant corruption in the military, it may not perhaps be as ready or as prepared to take Taiwan by force.

[Wan Ha]

What do you think in the end this says on a broader level about Xi and China's ambitions?

[Rebecca Chung Wilkins]

I think Xi's big ambition here is about having a so called modern military. And the target he has always set himself is the 100th anniversary of the plaque and that falls in 2027. Now that has led to some speculation about 2027 and Beijing's plans for Taiwan in that year. Some argue that this deadline is perhaps the reason why there is this theory that Beijing may have intentions to invade or take Taiwan by force in that year. That question aside, this focus of having a modern military that essentially can take on and is a leader globally and of course unspoken that can rival the US has been a priority. And this deadline and this date has been a real focus of President Xi since he came to power. And when you think about the two superpowers of China and the US coming up against each other and China's rivalry with the us this is ultimately about having a military that, in simple terms could defeat the us.

[Wan Ha]

This is the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wan ha to get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer if you like the episode, make sure to follow and review the Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. See you next time.

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