Why So Many Private Credit Investors Want Out

Summary

Big Take: Why So Many Private Credit Investors Want Out

Bloomberg & iHeartPodcasts | March 11, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Sarah Holder explores the mounting anxiety in the $1.8 trillion private credit market, where investors, both institutional and retail, have begun pulling out billions amid concerns about liquidity, AI-induced disruption, and the overall stability of the sector. Featuring Bloomberg reporters Brian Chapada and Olivia Fishlow, the conversation delves deep into why private credit—once a niche sideline—has become crucial to global finance, why it is wobbling under redemption pressure, and what this turmoil could mean for everything from Wall Street giants to your 401(k).

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Private Credit: From Niche to Powerhouse

• Origins & Growth

  • Emerged post-2008 financial crisis as banks reined in lending due to new regulations.
  • Attracted banks’ former talent and capital, initially serving riskier, smaller businesses (e.g., HVAC companies in the Midwest).
  • Eventually expanded, backing larger deals and funneling substantial investments into tech and data center infrastructure.
  • “The basic idea was to move risk away from the banks... into more individuals.” — Olivia Fishlow [04:37]

• Shift in Investor Base

  • Originally dominated by institutional investors, but recent regulatory changes have opened the door to retail investors, amplifying both scale and scrutiny.
  • “There was an executive order signed by President Donald Trump last year that basically makes it easier for these retail investors to get into alternative assets such as private credit.” — Brian Chapada [03:20]

2. Promises and Perils: Why Private Credit Boomed

• Attractions for Investors

  • Higher yields than traditional bonds.
  • Longer-term relationships with borrowers, potentially providing stability.
  • “You can get this kind of return as long as we are making creditworthy loans.” — Brian Chapada [06:43]

• Opaque Risks

  • Lack of transparency and regulation compared to banks; “shadow banking” risks have shifted, not vanished.
  • Easier leverage leads to greater underlying risk.
  • “Because the market is very private and it’s very opaque, it’s hard to know how much leverage is actually inherent in the system.” — Olivia Fishlow [07:16]

3. AI: The Unexpected Shock

• Heavy exposure to software and tech companies, sectors most at risk of disruption from rapid advances in AI.
• Many investments classified under non-software industries are actually in tech-driven businesses.
• “What they really did not expect was the level that artificial intelligence could now make that software obsolete… like honestly no one did.” — Olivia Fishlow [08:32]
• “The software exposure that some of these private credit funds self-report is actually probably lower than reality because so much is software.” — Brian Chapada [08:46]

4. Cracks Show: Default Fears and Market Shocks

• Recent high-profile collapses (e.g., Tricolor and First Brands) rattled confidence and fueled fears of further systemic risks.
• “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. …there’s probably more of these out there.” — Jamie Dimon (as cited by Brian Chapada) [10:00]
• As the Fed cuts rates and economic weakness persists, both returns and confidence waver.

5. The Blue Owl Capital Case: A Full-Blown Test

• Blue Owl's Rapid Growth & Unique Challenges

  • Reputation built on growth, retail marketing, and software specialization.
  • “Blue Owl was known for its just massive growth. ...they also specialized on software.” — Olivia Fishlow [14:13]
  • Exposed on two fronts: faltering software and vulnerable retail investor base.

• Redemption Pressure Mounts

  • Funds not designed for high liquidity; some faced over 15% of investors seeking redemptions in a single quarter.
  • “They basically say, we have the right… we can cap the amount that we’re willing to let you go. And so all of a sudden you’re seeing these redemptions… over 15% redemption requests in the fourth quarter.” — Brian Chapada [15:00]

• Asset Sales and Industry Precedent

  • Blue Owl met redemption requests by selling $1.4 billion in assets but, by exceeding established limits, set a dangerous industry precedent.
  • “They thought that would sort of quell concerns...but...that action sort of began a problem for the industry.” — Olivia Fishlow [15:56]

6. How Other Giants Reacted

• BlackRock:

  • Strictly enforced 5% cap on redemptions, protecting fund from distressed asset sales.
  • “We are going to cap at 5%, and we’re sorry, but not really sorry…” — Brian Chapada [16:41]

• Blackstone:

  • Used a separate “skin-in-the-game” fund, seeded with $150 million from senior executives, to meet redemption demands—a show of confidence, though only after hitting internal limits.
  • “To put up that amount of money is quite some conviction in what is right now the largest private credit fund out there.” — Brian Chapada [18:33]

7. 401(k)s and the Democratization Debate

• Recent regulatory changes now allow more 401(k) investment in private credit and private equity, but the spate of redemptions and market stress has heightened legislative and public scrutiny.
• “There are risks inherent in the asset class that maybe, you know, six months ago weren’t really being talked about and now it’s definitely a focus.” — Olivia Fishlow [19:11]
• Private credit firms favor 401(k) money because it’s “stickier”—investors can’t withdraw easily.

8. Outlook: Precipice or Overreaction?

• The industry stands divided between doomsayers (fearing a 2008-style crisis) and optimists (expecting adaptations and a weeding out of weaker firms).
• “There are some people who say this is the Precipice of the 2008 financial crisis all over again. And there are others who have literally been quoted saying it’s no big deal.” — Brian Chapada [21:42]
• Hope rests on the slow pace of change and resilience among software/tech borrowers.

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Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “The basic idea was to move risk away from the banks, which obviously caused a huge crisis, and sort of move it into more individuals.” — Olivia Fishlow [04:37]

• “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. He said, you know, this is not going to be the last time that you see some sort of credit flare up…” — Jamie Dimon (via Brian Chapada) [10:00]

• “They basically say, we have the right. If there’s more than 5%...we can cap…and so all of a sudden you’re seeing these redemptions...over 15%...It was a number that I think shocked the market, to be quite frank.” — Brian Chapada [15:00]

• “To put up that amount of money is quite some conviction in what is right now the largest private credit fund out there, which is its bcred product.” — Brian Chapada [18:33]

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Important Timestamps

• What is private credit and how did it grow? [04:00–06:00]
• Risks and downside of private credit’s opacity [07:00–08:00]
• AI risk and software exposure [08:20–09:20]
• Redemptions and the ‘cockroach’ warning [09:55–10:30]
• How the Blue Owl case unfolded [14:00–16:30]
• Contrasting responses of Blue Owl, BlackRock, and Blackstone [16:35–18:50]
• 401(k) and main street investor implications [18:48–20:30]
• Is this a 2008 replay, or just volatility? [21:29–22:44]

---

Summary & Takeaways

• The private credit market, once a niche offshoot, now plays a central role in corporate finance but is showing signs of structural weakness as both macro headwinds and AI-induced disruption gather pace.
• Recent regulatory changes increased retail investor participation and raised the stakes for liquidity and redemptions.
• The “perfect storm” arrived as software exposure, redemption surges, and visible bankruptcies overlapped—forcing major players to choose between strict redemption caps, asset sales, or remarkable internal support.
• The future remains uncertain, with industry insiders divided on whether this is the start of a systemic crisis or a turbulent but survivable shakeout.

This episode provides a clear-eyed, grounded view of why headlines about private credit matter—not just for Wall Street insiders, but potentially for every American saving for retirement.

Transcript

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[A]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News it's been a rough few weeks for private credit Investors are just pulling out to the tune of billions Private credit is

[C]

kind of a different beast.

[A]

The $1.8 trillion industry makes loans directly to private companies, using money from institutional investors and more recently, retail investors. And as the private credit market has boomed, it's positioned itself as a go to lender for the tech industry and for its data center construction spree, which means private credit has a lot of exposure to AI risks.

[D]

Financial firms grappling with signs that private credit issues are starting to emerge following a series of blows from the threat of AI.

[A]

Private credit money isn't just backing the AI infrastructure buildout. It's also invested in the very software companies that the technology threatens to displace. So as jitters over AI hit the market, these lenders are under a magnifying glass too. In February, squeamish investors started trying to pull some of their money out of private credit funds managed by companies like Blue Owl, Blackstone and blackrock.

[D]

Concerns over the industry have mounted. After Blue Owl halted redemptions in one of its funds and decided to sell some assets to help pay investors.

[A]

The problem is, the private credit industry isn't designed to offer on demand liquidity. The way that, say, banks can. Investors in these funds are supposed to be comfortable with having their money locked up for a while. So when investors came knocking, major private credit firms handled their requests in different ways. And that scramble is exposing cracks across the entire private credit industry at a particularly sensitive time.

[D]

There was an executive order signed by President Donald Trump last year that basically makes it easier for these retail investors to get into alternative assets such as private credit. And it's what they were counting on. And now that all of a sudden you're seeing an exodus from these funds and it's raising all these kind of questions about the asset class in general and whether it can withstand the kind of pressure that it was never really intended to face.

[C]

Foreign

[A]

I'm Sarah Holder and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, Bloomberg's Brian Chapada and Olivia Fishlow. Take us inside the recent tumult in the world of private credit, how cracks formed in this $1.8 trillion market, how companies are trying to tamp down investor anxiety, and what it could all mean for your 401k. Today. The nearly $2 trillion private credit market is central to the global financial system. It powers hundreds of billions of dollars worth of loans to companies of virtually every size. But when private credit first emerged, it was pretty niche.

[C]

The market actually started after the financial crisis and after banks were sort of limited in the lending that they could do.

[A]

That's Olivia Fishlow who covers private credit for Bloomberg.

[C]

The basic idea was to move risk away from the banks, which obviously caused a huge crisis, and sort of move it into more individuals. Some investors from the banks left and started their own firms called private credit firms, where they had third party capital and started to give loans to businesses that weren't really able to access financing. So they were mainly focused on, you know, small businesses in the Midwest, maybe like H Vac businesses, things of that nature. And of course, because these businesses were a bit riskier, right, they were able to get more money for these loans. They were able to be paid a higher rate. So then of course, it became a very successful strategy. They started to raise a lot of money and started to very aggressively market these funds to retail investors. And then as they got more and more money, now we can see they're financing some of the largest companies in the world and, you know, focusing on financing data centers.

[A]

Over time, private equity firms like Blackstone and Apollo set up their own private credit shops, becoming some of the largest firms in the space.

[C]

You know, they thought it was a good opportunity, but what really started happening is private equity became less lucrative. The returns came down, and, you know, businesses aren't really selling anymore, they're not really transacting. So credit became sort of the backbone of these businesses, which, like, for a long time were only known as private equity businesses.

[A]

For businesses, private credit can be attractive for two reasons. Maybe the company is considered too risky to qualify for a loan from a bank or would face a high borrowing cost if they do qualify. A loan from a private credit firm can be expensive too, but it typically establishes a longer term relationship for everyone involved, the borrowing business, the private credit firm and their investors. This can give businesses time to grow and hopefully eventually turn the kind of profit that's attractive to private credit firms and investors. Bloomberg's Brian Chapada, who edits coverage of leveraged finance and distressed debt, says that for investors, putting money in a private credit fund can be a pretty good deal.

[D]

I mean, the thing you have to understand about credit is that as long as defaults are low, it is effectively a guaranteed return in a lot of ways. Just as bonds that are very safe, such as Treasuries, will yield whatever it is on a daily basis, 3%, 4%, you have some of these direct loans that as long as the borrowers pay you back, you get 10%, 11%. And so that's what you can sell these wealthy investors on or institutions. You can get this kind of return as long as we are making credit worthy loans.

[A]

But there are also some real risks with a lending model like this.

[C]

What some people say is that because the market is very private and it's very opaque, it's hard to know how much leverage is actually inherent in the system.

[A]

And it's not just that there isn't the same transparency around leverage. Private credit tends to let businesses take on more leverage to borrow more against their debt.

[C]

Some critics say that you basically just shifted the risk away from banks, which are regulated and, you know, which have more rules, into a more opaque area, which used to be referred to as sort of shadow banking. That phrase has sort of gone away, but I think the idea of that risk still stands.

[A]

The private credit industry flourished as specific industries that it invested in took off, like software companies.

[C]

When software businesses really started to take off, the banks were relatively restricted in lending and they were dealing with a lot of other crises. So they couldn't really put money out the door. And private credit was coming into its own. And so they really very heavily invested in these software businesses. And at the time, like this was a great area of Recurring revenue. It seemed like the best place ever to lend and there was basically no competition.

[A]

But in recent years, another industry that private credit heavily invested in has complicated this picture.

[C]

And I think what they really did not expect was the level that artificial intelligence could now make that software obsolete. Like honestly no one did. And I think it's just sort of a combination of factors that they now find themselves with that.

[D]

And the thing that we've reported here at Bloomberg is that the software exposure that some of these private credit funds self report is actually probably lower than reality because so much is software. As we are quickly learning that a lot of these businesses that maybe are classified as healthcare actually are very much a healthcare software business. If these companies go bust, private credit is on the hook for a large portion of their portfolio and they may not be as diversified as they seem to.

[A]

Concerns about AI have been a big deal for private credit, but the industry had already been under scrutiny even before the latest AI related market swings.

[C]

Concerns really started towards the middle of last year and where we saw some pretty high profile collapses with businesses like Tricolor and First Brands.

[A]

Tricolor is a subprime auto lender and First Brands is an auto parts company. Both had borrowed from firms that fall under the private credit umbrella and and both went bankrupt in the fall. By that point, JP Morgan had invested in Tree Couleur. In an earnings call last year, the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon commented on the collapse.

[C]

My antenna goes up when things like that happen.

[D]

I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. He said, you know, this is not going to be the last time that you see some sort of credit flare up because there's probably more of these out there. Private credit bristles at this because Tricolor wasn't purely a private credit play as JP Morgan can attest to, but it did kind of raise awareness of the cracks that were forming out there in the markets.

[C]

I think that started investor fears which also sort of added to the idea that as the Fed cut rates, returns would also be coming down.

[D]

And then you started to see this kind of cascade of missteps, bad news, just general weakness in the market that was able to kind of tip the scales for various credit firms out there into a major share price decline.

[A]

After the break, how these factors came together to create a perfect storm for the private credit firm Blue Owl Capital, how Blue Al's challenges ricocheted throughout the industry and where the push to bring more investors into the private credit market stands now.

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[A]

There's a lot that's making private credit investors nervous right now. There's the fear that cockroaches are scuttling around, that there are systemic risks hiding within the industry. And then there's the AI of it all. The fear that private credit funds are too exposed to legacy software companies that could soon be put out of business by new AI tech, and too exposed to AI companies that are spending a ton of capital right now. And even though private credit funds don't typically offer opportunities for more than 5% of their investors to withdraw money at any given time, that's exactly what some investors are starting to request. That's put what's known as redemption pressure on private credit companies. Companies like Blue Owl Capital. I asked Bloomberg's Olivia Fishlow And Brian Chapata to explain why that company was the first domino to fall. So I'm wondering if you could just tell us a little bit more about what Blue Owl does and what its reputation in the private credit market has been up to this point.

[C]

So I think before this point, Blue Owl was known for its just massive growth. They were able to grow their business extremely rapidly, in part by marketing their funds to retail investors. And they also specialized on software. And they would be on their earnings calls telling investors that this was their edge and this was how they were able to be such successful lenders. That's kind of why they find themselves in the moment they are today.

[A]

Because that same software could be disrupted by the same AI companies that the rest of the market is invested in.

[C]

Exactly. And that plus their retail focus, they're kind of at these two points that people are now very, very worried about.

[D]

All of a sudden you're seeing a large amount of redemption pressure that they were never designed to be able to withstand. They basically say, we have the right. If there's more than 5% of people, 5% of people who want to out, we can cap the amount that we're willing to let you go. And so all of a sudden you're seeing these redemptions that are in excess of that. One of Blue Owl's Funds saw over 15% redemption requests in the fourth quarter. It was a number that I think shocked the market, to be quite frank.

[A]

How did the company handle all those requests?

[D]

They met them. And that is what's causing a little bit of consternation in the market now, because these funds are not designed to be able to meet these requests quarter after quarter, because the private loans that they make are not liquid at all. So the fact that there are these redemption pressures now has blue owl selling $1.4 billion of assets in order to make meet some of these redemptions. And it's raising all these kind of questions about the asset class in general and whether it can withstand the kind of pressure that it was never really intended to face.

[C]

I think some people thought that Blueal agreed to give everyone more than 15% of investors their money back because they thought that would sort of quell concerns like, okay, we make a stand this one quarter, we pay investors back, and then redemptions will go down and it'll all be okay. But the problem is that it sort of set this precedent. Well, we're just pay investors out every quarter. And if redemption requests remain elevated, as they have been for the industry broadly, that action sort of began A problem for the industry, which I think people weren't really prepared for.

[A]

How have these fears about private credit that perhaps, you know, started with Blue Owl, at least in the past few weeks, how have they spread to or affected other companies like BlackRock and Blackstone?

[D]

They say liquidity never matters until it matters. And that's what we're learning right now. And BlackRock, through its HPS corporate lending fund, was the first one to say, you know what? We are going to cap at 5%, and we're sorry, but not really sorry, because that is what we've said all along that we would do. And it protects the integrity of the fund. It prevents us from having to sell assets at distressed prices and hurt the investors who are left in the fund.

[A]

So it's quite different from Blue Owl's approach.

[D]

It is. And so we're going to see in the coming weeks what Blue Owl does, whether they are going to also enforce these 5% caps.

[A]

And meanwhile, Blackstone did something different. Right. Tell me about the unusual move that Blackstone made to give money back to investors who wanted out. How did they handle all these requests?

[C]

So what Blackstone was able to do was have another fund in which their own employees put money into, and then they use that money from their own senior executives and other leaders across the firm to pay back investors.

[B]

Their own.

[A]

Their own executives put up their own money in order to pay back investors?

[C]

Yes, and it is very interesting that they did that. But what some people have noted is that they were restricted by the documents of their fund themselves. So they. They say they were able to pay back that and much more with their own money. But because requests reach beyond 7%, they had to find a way to not use that fund's money in order to give people their money back, to put

[D]

up $150 million of cash, to show a sign of strength and to kind of make sure that, I guess, the priorities are aligned, that they have skin in the game. It was a pretty remarkable stand, I would say, by Blackstone.

[A]

Yeah, I feel like we throw around the word unprecedented a lot, but that sounds unprecedented.

[D]

I mean, it's huge. And I mean, it probably speaks to some extent to, you know, the wealth of the senior management at Blackstone as well. But, I mean, to put up that amount of money is quite some conviction in what is right now the largest private credit fund out there, which is its bcred product.

[A]

In August of last year, just before the Tricolor bankruptcy, President Trump signed this executive order to expand the type of investments allowed in 401 s to clear the way for more investments in private equity and other so called alternative assets like private credit. There's been a lot of debate over whether or not this is a good idea. I'm wondering how do you think the last few months have impacted this question?

[C]

I think it's brought more attention to advisors and you know, people just looking at the asset class from afar that, that there are risks inherent in the asset class that maybe, you know, six months ago these weren't really being talked about and now it's definitely a focus. I think the pros that lenders will say is these are types of investments that you can't get elsewhere and how is it fair that institutions are able to reap this benefit but the average everyday American can't reap the benefit of private credit and get access to these high returns, low risk, differentiated type of investment.

[D]

This whole episode has definitely raised people's awareness of private credit for better or worse. And I think for the ordinary person who doesn't fully understand the risks, I think they will probably think twice before necessarily diving into something that says private credit on it.

[A]

Obviously these private credit companies don't want anything to blow up their chances of getting into 401ks as planned as promised. Why does this feel so existential to them?

[C]

I think it's because the market has never been this big before. Right. And they've never gone through a credit cycle or any form of downturn in the size that they are today.

[D]

Yeah, it's very different when you're a middle market lender that is extending some credit to a lawn mowing company in the Midwest versus being a major data center financier or lending to software companies that are now directly in the crosshairs of AI. It's just a completely fundamentally different market that than it was when it started. And so these firms really want access to 401ks because it is by design harder for individual investors to take their cash out. You pay a penalty if you touch your 401k. And I would say probably a lot of people do not ever touch their 401s or withdraw money because of those penalties. So if you're able to access that market as a private credit firm, then all of a sudden you probably face less pressure than you do today from investors who are able to on a quarterly basis say I want out. You said I could get out. I would like to get out in full. So that's why they want access to some of this investor money that is more stable.

[A]

I'm wondering about the two ways that people are reading this moment for private credit. We've talked a lot about folks who are really concerned with what they're seeing in the market. But are there also people who feel like these fears are overblown?

[D]

I think definitely. I think there are some people who say this is the Precipice of the 2008 financial crisis all over again. And there are others who have literally been quoted saying it's no big deal.

[A]

How are they looking at the same information and coming to such different conclusions?

[D]

Well, I think what's happening right now is the this AI software nexus that we talked about earlier is creating fear and anxiety in the market. We have not seen that actually play out in terms of software companies just completely collapsing and imploding. But I think people are really taking comfort in the fact that this is a slow moving thing. There will be some adaptation among software firms generally. Some might not all make it, but by and large they will. That's kind of what private credit leaders are counting on, that this too shall pass. And there will be a shakeout among the weak hands that can't really withstand this kind of volatility. And those who remain in the asset class will be there for the long haul.

[A]

This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. To get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer if you like this episode, make sure to subscribe and review the Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts, it helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

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