Why You Should Care About What’s Happening in the Bond Market

Summary

Podcast Summary: Why You Should Care About What’s Happening in the Bond Market

Podcast: The Big Take (Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts)
Date: May 22, 2026
Host: David Gura
Main Guest: Enda Curran (Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Big Take digs into recent shocks in the global government bond market — with yields on long-term U.S., UK, and Japanese government debt reaching multi-decade highs. Host David Gura, alongside Bloomberg's Enda Curran, explores what’s setting off the turbulence, the implications for inflation, government borrowing, everyday consumers, and the enormous challenges facing the new U.S. Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. The conversation unpacks why these changes matter from Wall Street to Main Street and contemplates if AI-led productivity growth could provide an economic escape route.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What’s Happening in the Bond Markets?

• Soaring Yields: Yields on long-term government bonds have reached their highest levels in decades across the U.S., UK, Japan, and Europe.
  • “This week the yield on the 30-year treasury was the highest it’s been in almost 20 years.” – David Gura [02:08]
• Causes:
  • Rising inflation expectations.
  • Persistent global shocks: pandemic, Ukraine, Iran war.
  • Government spending and borrowing.
  • Macro changes such as AI-driven demand for components, and deglobalization.
• Mechanics: As yields on new bonds rise, prices of existing bonds fall, making old debt less attractive and driving borrowing costs higher for everyone.
  • “When the yield on new bonds climbs higher, old bonds look less attractive and their price tends to decline.” – Enda Curran [02:22]

2. Why Yields Are Soaring: The Inflation Factor

• Persistent Inflation: Investors now believe inflation won’t revert to pre-pandemic levels. The expectations are for a higher long-run “normal.”
  • “It’s a feeling that inflation is not going to go back to where it was, say, a decade ago. Things are going to be more expensive.” – Enda Curran [02:54]
• Two Main Drivers:
  • Ongoing global crises (e.g., Iran war), fueling energy and commodity prices.
  • A sense that the world economy is in perpetual shock mode (“rolling from one shock to another”).

3. Impact on the Real Economy

• Consumer Effects:
  • Higher government borrowing costs flow through to higher mortgage, loan, and credit card rates for consumers and businesses.
    • “Higher yields, higher borrowing costs for the government does have an impact on everybody else.” – Enda Curran [03:35]
• Market Signaling:
  • The 30-year Treasury yield, while a signaling device, now reflects deep worries about U.S. fiscal health and persistent inflation.

4. Global Perspective: It’s Not Just the U.S.

• A Worldwide Phenomenon:
  • All G7 economies face rising yields amid concerns over deficits, total debt loads, and interest payments.
  • European rearmament (borrowing to buy weapons) adds to the borrowing surge.
  • “All of these investors are casting judgment and putting pressure on those bond yields. You’ve seen it in the UK, you’ve seen it in Japan. You see it across Europe.” – Enda Curran [08:20]
• Catalyst Timing:
  • The Iran war is the latest trigger, but the bigger story is the piling up of persistent, overlapping shocks.

5. The “Penny Drop” Moment for Investors

• Investors are collectively realizing:
  • U.S. and global debt levels may be unsustainable.
  • Interest rates may stay higher for longer.
  • Multiple structural factors (AI, tariffs, demographics, supply chains) mean that “normal” is changing.
    • “There’s this kind of penny drop moment where investors are saying, hang on, US interest rates might be higher for longer now.” – Enda Curran [05:41]

6. Is an “Inflation Shock” Looming?

• Experts don’t predict a 1970s-style runaway inflation, or even a post-pandemic spike.
• Instead: a slow-burn realization that higher inflation and higher rates are the new normal.
  • “It is a slow burn, dawning realization that things are going to be more expensive and central banks are going to have to respond.” – Enda Curran [07:06]

7. Spotlight on U.S. Fiscal Choices and the Fed

Debt Hangover:

• Governments incurred massive debts during the pandemic and are now facing the costs.
  • “That cost comes with a bill, and that's now what's happening. And the bill means that the cost repaying that debt is going to be more expensive.” – Enda Curran [15:08]
• Political pressure is mounting to keep rates low to ease debt burdens, but central banks may need to hike rates to battle inflation.
  • “Central banks have to play a supporting role to the government to make sure that they're able to fund themselves … that’s not what a central bank wants to be doing.” – Enda Curran [16:25]

Tension Between Government and Central Banks:

• Fiscal dominance: The risk that central banks become subservient to governments’ borrowing needs.
• President Trump has been vocal about the “cost of borrowing” and blames the Fed’s stance.

8. The Challenge for New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

• Policy Crossroads: Warsh faces pressure to cut rates, but neither political nor economic conditions favor this.
• Most likely scenario: The Fed holds or even raises rates further in response to persistent inflation.
  • “More likely is that the Fed will have to stay in hold for some time and at least see through the brunt of this Iran impact … the warnings are more that the Fed may have to hike later in the year.” – Enda Curran [17:40]

9. Is There a Way Out? The “AI Hope” vs. Austerity

• AI as the Great Hope:
  • Some believe AI-driven productivity can provide enough growth to “grow out of” debt and contain inflation — as in the late 1990s.
  • “There is a theory out there that AI is going to drive this massive supply side boom, drive productivity, make us all more efficient ... which of course is the ultimate cure for debt without triggering inflation.” – Enda Curran [18:52]
• Unanswered Questions:
  • Will AI deliver these gains?
  • What about potential mass unemployment from AI disruption?
• Otherwise, Only Hard Choices Remain:
  • Without significant AI impact, “fairly painful” fiscal discipline and spending cuts may be necessary.
  • Political and public appetite for austerity is currently lacking in the U.S. and other democracies.

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Standout Quotes & Moments

• On the Current Mood:
  “There’s a feeling that, you know, inflation is not going to go back to where it was, say, a decade ago. Things are going to be more expensive.” – Enda Curran [02:54]

• On Why Bond Market Moves Matter:
  “The impact ultimately will be that it flows through to the real world economy ... Higher yields, higher borrowing costs for the government does have an impact on everybody else.” – Enda Curran [03:35]

• On Investor Skepticism:
  “I think that investors ultimately probably are skeptical that inflation will return to target in the near term for all the reasons that we’ve been talking about.” – Enda Curran [14:08]

• On AI Optimism – and Doubts:
  “The great hope is that we can grow our way out of it partly, if not mostly, powered by this AI boom. And if it’s not that, then it’s going to be fairly painful.” – Enda Curran [19:57]

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Important Timestamps

• [02:08] – Context on 30-year Treasury hitting 20-year highs; what that means for markets
• [02:54] – Enda Curran outlines why investors fear persistent, elevated inflation
• [03:35] – Real-world effects: how higher yields affect consumers' loans and mortgages
• [05:41] – The “penny drop” for investors: why the selloff now, and not sooner
• [07:06] – Analysts rule out a 1970s-style inflation shock, focusing on a “higher for longer” scenario
• [08:20] – Global perspective: rising yields are not just a U.S. problem
• [15:08] – The pandemic-era borrowing bill comes due; choices for governments
• [16:25] – The central bank-government dilemma: “fiscal dominance”
• [17:40] – Why the Fed probably can’t (and won’t) cut rates soon, even with political pressure
• [18:52] – AI as the possible economic escape; why it’s untested and controversial

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Tone and Language

The discussion is matter-of-fact, analytical, and urgent—grounded in both expertise and concern over broad economic trends. Both Gura and Curran clarify complex financial concepts in accessible language, emphasizing the stakes for ordinary people as well as policymakers and investors.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode frames the global bond market’s turbulence as both a reflection of, and a catalyst for, profound shifts in how governments, central banks, and investors view inflation, debt, and growth. The “new normal” appears to be persistent inflation and high interest rates, with AI-powered productivity as a much-hoped-for—if uncertain—way out. For listeners, the message is clear: even seemingly arcane moves in the bond market will ripple out to affect everyday finances, government priorities, and the future of the world economy.

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For further listening:
Check out Bloomberg’s “Trumponomics” with Stephanie Flanders for a deeper dive on the current state of the bond market.

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Transcript

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[Chase Bank Representative]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio news Global bond jitters have taken center stage.

[Enda Curran]

Japanese bond yields remain elevated.

[Chase Bank Representative]

Long dated U.S. treasury yields are hovering near a three year high. You see the yellow line just absolutely

[Enda Curran]

take off and it's the highest yield

[Cincinnati Insurance Representative]

since the bond was introduced all the

[Public Investing Representative]

way back in the late 90s.

[David Gura]

This week the yield on the 30 year treasury was the highest it's been in almost 20 years. And we've also seen yields on long term debt in the UK and Japan the highest they've been in decades. Now remember your fundamentals.

[Enda Curran]

When the yield on new bonds climbs higher, old bonds look less attractive and their price tends to decline.

[David Gura]

When investors find government debt less attractive, they're willing to pay less for it. Bond prices go down and yields go up.

[Enda Curran]

Essentially, yields on government bonds are surging.

[David Gura]

Anda Currin covers the global economy for Bloomberg and he says this week's turmoil in Global government bond markets is a signal that investors are becoming convinced inflation is going to be a more persistent problem.

[Enda Curran]

And there are two reasons for that. The first one we all know about, it's the Iran war. It's the spillover effect on petrol prices, gas prices, fertilizer costs and various commodities. We know what's going on there, but it's also a feeling that we're just rolling from one shock to another in the 2000 and twenties, from the pandemic through Ukraine through to where we are now. And it's a feeling that, you know, inflation is not going to go back to where it was, say, a decade ago. Things are going to be more expensive. It's going to be more expensive to get a loan out. And then by extension, for a government who wants to go and raise money in the public markets, they're going to have to pay more for it.

[David Gura]

And that, Enda says, is something that's going to affect everyone from Wall street to Main Street.

[Enda Curran]

The impact ultimately will be that it flows through to the real world economy. For example, taking a mortgage out or for getting a car loan out or for repaying your interest on your credit card debt. Higher yields, higher borrowing costs for the government does have an impact on everybody else.

[David Gura]

And it's going to put a particular spotlight on one person on his first day on the job, our new chairman

[Enda Curran]

of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Kevin Warsh.

[David Gura]

I'm David Gura and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, why investors and economists are so concerned inflation will stay higher for longer. The one great hope that could give the global economy a way out and what this rout in the bond market means for the Fed Reserve, the Fed's new chair and, and for you and

[IBM Representative]

me,

[David Gura]

We talk a lot about the 10 year. That's something that really influences mortgage rates, for instance, can influence credit card rates and car loans. What is the utility of the 30 year treasury bond? When we talk about the 30 year, what's it telling us about the state of the economy and investor appetite?

[Enda Curran]

It's more of a signaling effect. But the point is, when you have those 30 year yields going where they are, it's a reminder. One, it's a judgment on the US fiscal position right now. And a lot of investors have been warning that the US has been borrowing and spending beyond its means. Now, of course, the administration will push back and they say that the measures they're pushing through, especially in taxation, will promote growth and the best way to get out of a debt pile is to grow your economy out of it. But nonetheless, when you see yields go where they are, it's telling you people are worried about the government finances and it's saying people are worried about inflation. And the point I'm making about inflation here is it's not just the Iran story. That of course is part of it. That's the near term thing. But if you step back, a lot of people are now saying, you know what, it's probably likely the prices are going to be higher for longer.

[David Gura]

What does the sell off in bonds tell you just about the way that global investors are thinking about US Debt in particular?

[Enda Curran]

Well, there are a couple of things going on here. We've had periods of bond selloffs in the past. I mean, during the pandemic, David, for example, bonds sold off. During previous moments of volatility, bonds sold off. But now there's a feeling that this sell off is signifying that investors are starting to crystallize on several issues coming together at once. And that is the US Government borrowing position. Too much borrowing, too much spending. Investors are saying you're going to have to pay up to keep borrowing from us. That's the fiscal story in the US and it's a reflection not just on the inflation story, but a reflection on this idea that governments have also borrowed too much money over the past few years and as a result, now that bill is coming home to roost. And then secondly, there's this kind of penny drop moment where investors are saying, hang on, US Interest rates might be higher for longer now because of what's going on in the inflation story. That's the Iran dynamic, but it's also the AI boom that's driving up the cost of goods here. Tariffs have had some impact. You've got the whole changing supply chain story or deglobalization that's making trade more expensive. You've got the demographic story. There's a range of issues there that investors are saying will mean interest rates will need to be higher than they were now for longer. So there's this kind of feeling that what happened this week, why now? Well, it's a penny drop moment. Investors seem to be casting judgment on all of these issues at the same time.

[David Gura]

As you listen to policymakers, as you talk to economists and investors, are people worried about an inflation shock, a kind of seismic event in the global economy?

[Enda Curran]

There is some nuance in this, David, right here, right now, nobody's worried about say, a 1970s style great inflation outbreak or necessarily what we saw after the pandemic. It's more about this dawning realization that neither is inflation going back to those benign years that we were all so accustomed to, certainly in the years before the pandemic. And it means that inflation is going to settle at a higher base. For example, one economist we spoke to makes the point that 2%, the 2% target that the Fed and other central banks look at, that's now the floor, not the ceiling. And there's a realization that inflation's going to be a bit higher. Well, then interest rates are going to have to be higher. Central banks are going to have to play their part in all of this. And if that's the case, then going out and getting a loan is going to be more expensive. So it's not that people are suddenly decided this week we're on the cusp of a 1970s style inflation shock or the post pandemic shock. But it is a slow burn, dawning realization that things are going to be more expensive and central banks are going to have to respond.

[David Gura]

U.S. government debt plays such a crucial role in the global economy, but is this a worldwide phenomenon? We've talked a lot about US Debt so far, but are we seeing a similar kind of sell off in other debt around the world?

[Enda Curran]

I mean, obviously it's always idiosyncratic. Every country has their own story. But let's just look at the G7 economies. If you want to talk about the biggest industrialized economies, they are all seeing one way or another investor concern around maybe the size of their deficit, or maybe around the size of their total debt load, or maybe concerns around interest rate repayments. And as a result, all of these investors are casting judgment and putting pressure on those bond yields. You've seen it in the uk, you've seen it in Japan. You see it across Europe. The rearmament story, of course, as well the borrowing to buy weapons in Europe, that's another part of the story. And investors are driving up the cost of lending money to them. And that's what's going on. And again, there's a question around why now, as opposed to several over the past few years when all of this was obvious? The best explanation we're getting when we speak to people is that it's just this confluence of issues. Now Iran has kind of cemented the idea. You know what, we're just in an era of rolling shocks. These shocks aren't going away. And when Iran quietens down, it'll be something else. And that's why we're seeing this judgment getting cast in bond yields the way that we are

[David Gura]

up next what the sell off in long term debt means for the Fed and for its new chair Kevin Warsh who started that job today.

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[David Gura]

The Federal Reserve's official target for inflation is 2%. That's where policymakers want it. But inflation hasn't been at that level for several years. I asked Bloomberg's end occurren why it's been so challenging for Fed officials to get inflation back down.

[Enda Curran]

Well, if you go back to maybe early 2025, the Fed, they were making progress. By all accounts, inflation was heading in the right direction. After so many years of soaring inflation in the U.S. it looked like they were on track to hit that 2% target. But then in 2025, a couple of things happened. President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs. Now of course you can slice and dice and debate the impact tariffs had on inflation, but the Federal Reserve and other other economic observers make the point that ultimately there was an impact on goods price inflation from tariffs. So that was the first thing that had an impact. Then of course you have this AI boom and the AI boom is driving up tradable inflation. So the kind of imported goods, the technology goods, the inputs components that you need for these data centers and chip heavy based industries, that's becoming more expensive. And now again roll forward to where we are right now. We've had the Iran shock and obviously that's clear as day to all of us diesel prices, what's happening at the gas pump. And then there will be second round effect from that. So when you add all that up, it means the Fed's 2% target now looks a lot further away than it was back in early 2025. And that's why people think it's going to be very difficult for them to lower interest rates in the near term. And that's what they're saying now as well. Those officials are publicly saying they don't see much room to bring down borrowing costs at the moment.

[David Gura]

It looks farther away. Yet you hear from Fed policymakers a confidence that they can get there. They're not giving up on that 2% target. And I'm curious if investors have that same confidence policymakers do, that inflation is going to be something they can get under control.

[Enda Curran]

I mean, the first role of an economic policymaker is to talk up confidence, number one. I mean, if they came out and said, you know what, I don't think we're going to hit our target. I Think people will be worried. If they're giving up, then what hope is there? So there's that. But the other part of it is I think that investors ultimately probably are skeptical that inflation will return to target in the near term for all the reasons that we've been talking about. And that's why we might reach a point where the Fed and others have no option but to raise interest rates. That's something that seemed very unlikely only a few months ago.

[David Gura]

I want to talk a bit more about the economic backdrop here and why that's making this so difficult. So you have governments who in recent years have been on a real spending spree, I think back to the pandemic and the money that they had to deploy then, certainly with the war in Iran. Now there's talk of how you can make life a bit easier for consumers who are seeing energy prices go up. You can say the same thing about the war in Ukraine, the effect that's had on Europe. Explain as simply as you can why this is a problem.

[Enda Curran]

Well, first of all, they had to borrow and spend during the pandemic. It was a public health emergency and economies needed support. I mean, that had to be done. However, that cost comes with a bill, and that's now what's happening. And the bill means that the cost repaying that debt is going to be more expensive. Interest rates are going up because the government has to keep borrowing. And when it's borrowing, it means it's pushing out other borrowers in the market. So if you have the government out there in the public market saying, we need to borrow trillions, well, then that's pushing up costs for everyone else, too. For like typical companies who go out and borrow in the market, even, even banks who go and borrow, it just means there is a higher premium for everyone. And the other, the other part of then is, David, it should drive tough choices on public policy decisions. Where can the resources go? Where can the spending go? The uk, for example, is very interesting. They're talking about how can they manage their public finances in a way that others are not. But in the US right here, right now, I think that probably the biggest complaint is there isn't enough focus on how to rein in spending.

[David Gura]

So to underline why this is a tricky dynamic, you've got governments who want lower rates because of all the debt that they've taken on, and then you've got central banks who may need to raise rates because of inflation. That therein is the tension.

[Enda Curran]

Yeah, and it is tension because central banks, again, if you talk about developed economies. Central banks, either by convention or by the law, are allowed to go and set interest rates in the best interest of the economy and of the public. Now, if you have a finance ministry saying, I have to go out and borrow in the public market next week and it's going to cost a lot of money, it would really be rather helpful if you weren't raising interest rates. I mean, there's obviously going to be tension there. And that's part of the story that we're seeing clear here in the U.S. president Trump has spoken publicly about the cost of borrowing, the cost of interest rate repayments, and he blames the Fed for having interest rates too high. Now, in the jargon that's known as fiscal dominance, this idea that central banks have to play a supporting role to the government to make sure that they're able to fund themselves and keep the public service ticking over, and that's not what a central bank wants to be doing. They want to be out there setting their policy, which is narrow, it's technocratic, it's interest rates, but it has an impact. They want to do that in the best interest of the public and the economy, and that's why they're getting sucked into this political world.

[David Gura]

So let's focus again on the US we know that Kevin Warsh is facing a lot of political pressure to cut rates when he gets to the Fed, but it sounds like that's not the way that the winds are blowing right now.

[Enda Curran]

Well, okay, right here, right now, objectively speaking, the Federal Reserve is not in a position to cut rates, interest rates. Their officials are making that point publicly, and that's because they're worried about inflation staying too high. Now, if Mr. Warsh does plan to say we need to cut interest rates in the near term, that's obviously going to be a very tough case to sell in terms of convincing his fellow policymakers, in terms of convincing markets, that's the tonic that's needed right now. More likely is that the Fed will have to stay in hold for some time and at least see through the brunt of this Iran impact and maybe in the second half of the year, see where things stand. But right here, right now, David, the warnings are more that the Fed may have to hike later in the year. So the markets, the financial markets are already betting that the Fed may have to raise interest rates. And some officials in the Fed are publicly saying, you know what, the next move might have to be up as well. So if we get into that scenario, one would imagine there will be significant Political pressure on the Fed, criticism of the Fed, and that's going to be a very tricky balancing act for Mr. Walsh.

[David Gura]

I want to ask you what the solution to all of this is. I assume it would be helpful if governments spent less and therefore borrowed less. Is that really the only way out of this, as economists and investors see it?

[Enda Curran]

Well, so there's one great hope, and the great hope is AI. So there is a theory out there that AI is going to drive this massive supply side boom, drive productivity, make us all more efficient in our output, and and at the same time boost growth, economic growth, which of course is the ultimate cure for debt without triggering inflation. We're meant to be in this age of AI, and there are plenty of people who argue this point. And Mr. Warsh, by the way, is also a believer in this idea that AI will drive this productivity boom and by extension bring down or keep inflation low, like in the 1990s during that technology boom. That's a great hope, but that's, you know, as of yet, somewhat untested. Product productivity is going up, but it's not necessarily going up because of AI. We don't also know what the diffusion impact will be from AI in terms of people's jobs. I mean, okay, if AI isn't boosting productivity and keeping inflation low, what happens if that's at the cost of, you know, mass unemployment? These are questions that we don't know yet. But that's the great hope. If it's not that, DAVID well, then it's going to have to be tough decisions on spending, on public spending. And in the US for example, there doesn't seem to be much political appetite for that on either side of the aisle. And there doesn't seem to be much public appetite for that either. And that's probably true of many democracies, by the way, given the entitlements that are embedded in the system, they're very hard to unwind and reverse. So the great hope for the situation we're in is that we can grow our way out of it partly, if not mostly powered by this AI boom. And if it's not that, then it's going to be fairly painful.

[David Gura]

This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. The show is hosted by me, Sarah Holder and Won Ha. The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Jeff Grocott, Paddy Hirsch, Rachel Lewis Griski, Laura Newcomb, Naomi Ng, Julia Press, Tracey Samuelson, Naomi Shaven, Alex Segura, Julia Weaver, Yang Yang and Taka Yasuzawa. Our Executive Producer is Nicole Beamsterbor. If you'd like more from Bloomberg on the on the Bond Market My colleague Stephanie Flanders, our Senior Executive Editor for Economics, has an episode this week on the bond market on her show Trumponomics. We've linked to it on our show Notes to get more from the Big Take and unlimited access to all of bloomberg.com, subscribe [e-mail] podcastoffer thanks for listening. We're off on Monday for Memorial Day here in the US we'll be back on Tuesday.

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Game night rush or any night of the week really. Genius keeps every order moving from online ordering to your kitchen to the front counter. Big league reliability for any business, that's genius.