Big Take: Your Streaming Subscription Could Be the Next Trade Battlefield

Podcast: Big Take by Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts
Date: March 13, 2026
Host: David Gura
Guest/Expert: Brendan Murray, Bloomberg’s Global Trade Editor

Episode Overview

In this episode, David Gura and Brendan Murray discuss the emerging front in global trade wars: digital services, including streaming subscriptions, e-books, and social media. As physical goods face increasing tariffs and traditional trade wars persist, governments and multinationals are now clashing over how—and whether—to tax digital transactions. The conversation explores current WTO debates, the stance of the US and other major economies, and the growing friction between American tech giants and European regulators.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Conventional Trade Wars to the Digital Frontier

• Recent context: President Trump’s second term characterized by traditional trade measures—tariffs on physical goods like cars and pharmaceuticals.
  • Brendan Murray (02:04): “He has put tariffs on physical goods that we use in our everyday life that he thinks should be made in the US Rather than abroad.”
• Shift to digital: The US is laying groundwork to regulate and defend digital services in trade.
  • David Gura (03:41): “This week, Trump and his trade team started to lay the groundwork for a new tariff regime, one that could penalize countries that tax U.S. digital services.”

2. The Rise and Value of Digital Services Trade

• Digital services—streaming, social media, advertising—are the fastest growing sector in international trade, now 15% of global trade and valued at over $4.5 trillion. David Gura (02:36):
• Most digital services move across borders “invisibly,” complicating traditional customs enforcement.
  • Brendan Murray (05:38): “How do we factor in that all of these goods and services are increasingly moving across borders invisibly on subsea cables? And there's no customs checkpoint on the subsea cable…”

3. The WTO Moratorium and Looming Uncertainty

• Since 1998, a WTO moratorium has barred customs duties on digital transmissions; it has been regularly renewed with minimal attention, but now faces expiration.
  • Brendan Murray (05:15): “The idea was that if E commerce reaches poor countries, rich countries, we all benefit from the proliferation of E commerce.”
• At the next WTO meeting, nations will decide whether to extend the moratorium or let it lapse (06:00).

4. Global Tensions: Who Wants to Tax Digital Services and Why?

• Many developing economies (Indonesia, India, Brazil, South Africa) want new revenue sources and see digital tariffs as a solution.
  • Brendan Murray (07:31): “They see the big US tech companies making a lot of money in their countries. And Indonesia actually has a tariff line in its customs code for digital transactions. It's currently zero. But all they have to do is change that to 20%.”
• The US seeks to make the moratorium permanent, but is facing diplomatic pushback partly because of its own protectionism.

5. What This Means for Consumers and Companies

• If the moratorium lapses, everyday digital purchases (e-books, streaming subscriptions, cloud storage) could be taxed or tariffed depending on a consumer’s location.
  • Brendan Murray (08:48): “The digital services trade globally is about $5 trillion. And so we're talking about a lot of money and a lot of potential for countries, particularly developing countries...”

6. The Complication of AI and Data Sovereignty

• The explosion in AI and cross-border data flows magnifies tensions over “data sovereignty”—who owns and controls data collected in one country but analyzed elsewhere?
  • Brendan Murray (10:01): "...the big issue for the WTO when it comes to digital services and AI is what they call data sovereignty."
  • Example (10:21): US-made tractors in Brazil relay data to data centers—who rightfully owns and can monetize that information?

7. The US-EU Philosophical Divide over Internet Regulation

• US model: Favors free speech and commerce, minimal regulation.
• EU model: Prioritizes consumer protection, data privacy, and combating harmful content.
• Authoritarian model (China/Russia): Heavily censored and state-controlled internet.
  • Brendan Murray (15:02): “But what we've really ended up with is three basic models of the Internet...and one of them is going to rule out at some point.”
• The EU has heavily fined US tech companies (Meta, Google, Apple, X) for violations of strict tech regulations like the Digital Services Act.
  • David Gura (17:19): “The EU brought its latest landmark case in December against Elon Musk's ex issued a fine of 120,000 doll million euro to X for breaching the Digital Services Act.”

8. Rising Trade Discord and the Challenge of Policy Alignment

• US argues EU is overregulating its companies; EU says it’s necessary to protect its citizens.
  • Brendan Murray (14:23): “The US would say, you're over regulating our companies. And the Europeans would say, well, we want to protect our citizens and our businesses against harmful practices.”
• Internal EU divisions and US-EU trade surpluses/deficits make consensus elusive.
  • Brendan Murray (18:42): “It's hard to see how the two sides are fundamentally going to get together and come out with some agreement...So it seems like we're headed for some sort of showdown.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the origins of digital trade battles
  • Brendan Murray (02:18): “There's a growing subset known as digital services that count as trade that is the fastest growing part of trade overall.”
• On future stakes if digital tariffs spread
  • Brendan Murray (07:31): “The E book that you download in Bali just became 20% more expensive.”
• On data ownership in a globalized economy
  • Brendan Murray (10:01): “The question becomes, whose data is that?...This is where the rubber meets the road with the data sovereignty issue…”
• On regulation philosophy
  • Brendan Murray (15:02): “But what we've really ended up with is three basic models of the Internet...”
• On the future of trade policy
  • Brendan Murray (20:23): “The services arena is really going to be where the trade wars of the future are fought. It's very hard to game out right now exactly what the weapons are going to be, whether they would be tariffs or taxes or regulation. But we're in the digital age and the trade wars of the future are going to be waged in the digital arena.”

Timestamps for Crucial Segments

• 01:34 – Introduction to Trump’s current trade war approach
• 02:18 – Emergence of digital trade as a key battlefield
• 03:41 – Trump administration prepares new tariff approach for digital services
• 05:02 – The WTO’s ongoing moratorium on digital customs
• 07:31 – How other countries view digital tariffs; consumer impact
• 10:01 – Data sovereignty, AI, and international disputes
• 14:23 – EU fines and regulation philosophy
• 15:02 – Three competing global models for the internet
• 18:42 – Prediction of a long-term stalemate and hints of a digital trade war

Conclusion

This episode clarifies the next likely battleground in global trade: digital services. As traditional product-based tariffs reach their limits and digital transactions fuel the economy, both developed and developing countries are reconsidering how (and whether) to tax or regulate streaming services, software, and cross-border data flows. The US and EU find themselves at odds over regulation, privacy, and protectionism, while the WTO may soon decide whether digital commerce remains largely duty-free or enters an age of widespread tariff battles—a change that could hit consumers and companies alike.

For further reading and in-depth analysis, visit Bloomberg.com.