Big Technology Podcast: Episode Summary Title: 2024 In Review, 2025 Predictions — With Casey Newton Release Date: January 1, 2025 Host: Alex Kantrowitz Guest: Casey Newton of Platformer and Hard Fork Podcast

1. Introduction: Reflecting on 2024 and Anticipating 2025

Alex Kantrowitz opens the episode by setting the stage for an annual review of the previous year and forecasting the technological landscape for 2025. He emphasizes that 2024 was marked by significant technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), yet acknowledges the ongoing challenges in realizing the full potential and return on investment (ROI) of these technologies.

Quote:

Alex Kantrowitz [00:47]: "It's January 1st, so as we do every year... going to look back at the previous year and predict what's going to happen in this coming year in 2025."

2. AI Progress and Challenges in 2024

Casey Newton concurs with Alex's assessment, highlighting the meteoric rise of ChatGPT, which reached 300 million weekly users in just over two years—a feat rarely seen in the tech industry. Newton draws parallels to other Silicon Valley giants, noting that initial unprofitability does not preclude long-term success.

Quote:

Casey Newton [02:42]: "OpenAI told us that ChatGPT had 300 million users a week. So to go from 0 to 300 million is really impressive and almost never happens."

3. Predictions for AI in 2025: AI Agents and Productization

Looking ahead, Newton predicts that 2025 will witness significant advancements in AI agents—autonomous programs capable of performing tasks without direct human intervention. He anticipates that major AI labs like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI will showcase their own AI agents, which, despite their current imperfections, will begin to unlock new business automation opportunities.

Quote:

Casey Newton [06:06]: "I expect that OpenAI is going to release their own pretty soon... they just really need to build the product."

4. The Future of AI Tools: Comparing ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini

The discussion delves into the comparative strengths of various AI models. Newton expresses a preference for Claude, appreciating its role as a "thinking partner," while critiquing Google's Gemini for its disconnect between benchmark performance and real-world application quality.

Quote:

Casey Newton [26:22]: "If you could imagine a world where it's a little bit more on Rails... and you say, like, hi, agent... that would allow really powerful experiences."

5. Apple’s AI and Vision Pro

The conversation shifts to Apple's foray into AI with "Apple Intelligence" and the mixed reality headset Vision Pro. Newton criticizes Apple's AI features for lacking practical daily use cases and describes Vision Pro's limited adoption despite its technological prowess.

Quote:

Casey Newton [14:07]: "Apple Intelligence, you are a complete flop, and I hope you never change."

6. Google’s AI Performance vs. Product Integration

Newton assesses Google's AI efforts, acknowledging their strong performance on benchmarks but criticizing the user experience of their AI products. He highlights the success of NotebookLM but laments the departure of key team members, suggesting internal challenges hinder Google's ability to translate AI advancements into consumer-friendly products.

Quote:

Casey Newton [24:02]: "Gemini has clearly been the worst... they had the notorious launch of AI overviews where they were telling people to eat rocks and put glue on their pizza."

7. OpenAI and Microsoft Partnership

The symbiotic relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft is examined, with Newton suggesting that both entities will continue to depend on each other for infrastructure and AI advancements. He predicts ongoing collaboration despite potential internal conflicts.

Quote:

Casey Newton [29:26]: "OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the infrastructure of making AI... and Microsoft needs OpenAI for the tech and the product."

8. Meta and TikTok Ban Predictions

The topic shifts to Meta (formerly Facebook) and the potential banning of TikTok. Newton speculates that a TikTok ban could significantly benefit Meta by redirecting cultural energy and user engagement towards platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts.

Quote:

Casey Newton [32:52]: "If TikTok is banned, that energy is going to want to go somewhere and it's gonna primarily go to reels and shorts."

9. Amazon’s Position in the 2025 Tech Landscape

Alex raises questions about Amazon's future amidst competitive pressures from Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu. Newton remains uncertain but optimistically notes Amazon's strong customer loyalty through services like Amazon Prime.

Quote:

Casey Newton [37:30]: "My basic thought is always, whatever happens, Amazon will be fine. People love Amazon."

10. Emerging Technologies: Quantum Computing and Self-Driving Cars

Quantum Computing: Newton discusses Google's advancements in quantum computing, recognizing technical progress but tempering expectations for practical applications by 2025.

Quote:

Casey Newton [39:46]: "Don't expect too much to happen in 2025."

Self-Driving Cars: Highlighting Waymo's expansion, Newton foresees broader public interactions with autonomous vehicles, emphasizing the superior driving experience compared to human drivers.

Quote:

Casey Newton [41:33]: "More people are going to have this experience in 2025."

11. Neuralink’s Prospects

The potential of Neuralink is explored, with both host and guest acknowledging inspiring advancements yet expressing skepticism about widespread impact within the next year due to reliability and durability concerns.

Quote:

Casey Newton [44:41]: "I do worry about the long term for some of these patients."

12. Potential Acquisition of Snap by Apple

A speculative discussion ensues about Apple potentially acquiring Snap (Snapchat). Newton considers the strategic advantages for Apple, particularly in AR technology, but questions the feasibility given Snap's current business challenges and Apple's focus areas.

Quote:

Casey Newton [46:22]: "I do think that 2025 is the year where Evan Spiegel says, yeah, I gotta do something drastic."

13. Peloton's Outlook

The episode touches on Peloton's declining relevance post-pandemic. Despite innovative products and user engagement during lockdowns, the resurgence of in-person fitness has rendered Peloton's offerings less critical.

Quote:

Casey Newton [47:15]: "People really underrated the value of being in person... So goodbye, Peloton."

14. Conclusion: Final Thoughts and Season Wrap-Up

Alex and Casey wrap up the episode with humorous reflections on the discussed topics, reaffirming their predictions and expressing mutual anticipation for the developments in 2025.

Quote:

Casey Newton [48:50]: "Thank you so much. I can't imagine a better way to sort of get rid of my New Year's hangover than come back on your show, Alex."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Casey Newton [02:42]: "OpenAI told us that ChatGPT had 300 million users a week. So to go from 0 to 300 million is really impressive and almost never happens."

• Casey Newton [06:06]: "If you look at the demos that have been released so far, they're like pretty janky... but we're finding all these new scaling vectors."

• Alex Kantrowitz [04:21]: "I would say if I had to put a bow on what you're labeling 2024 as maybe the year of continuing to figure it out."

• Casey Newton [14:07]: "Apple Intelligence, you are a complete flop, and I hope you never change."

• Casey Newton [29:26]: "OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the infrastructure of making AI."

• Casey Newton [32:52]: "TikTok is an engine of culture in the United States... it drives music consumption."

• Casey Newton [41:33]: "Waymo is expanding to Atlanta and Austin. It's also going to be in Miami in 2025."

Key Takeaways

• AI Evolution: 2024 was a pivotal year for AI, with rapid user adoption and revenue growth, yet challenges in ROI and practical application persist. The coming year is expected to focus on refining AI agents and integrating them into business processes.

• Tech Giants' Strategies: Apple and Google continue to navigate the complexities of AI productization, with Apple facing criticism for its AI implementations and Vision Pro’s limited market success. Google's AI models excel in benchmarks but struggle in real-world applications.

• Market Dynamics: Potential regulatory actions, such as a TikTok ban, could reshape the social media landscape, benefiting incumbents like Meta. Amazon remains resilient amid competitive pressures, while Peloton faces declining demand post-pandemic.

• Emerging Technologies: Quantum computing and self-driving cars are making strides, with Waymo leading in autonomous vehicle experiences. Neuralink shows promise but requires further advancements for broader impact.

• Industry Collaborations and Conflicts: The intertwined futures of OpenAI and Microsoft highlight the dependency and potential friction between major tech collaborators.

For more insights and detailed discussions, visit Platformer News and follow Casey Newton on the Hard Fork podcast.