← Big Technology Podcast
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- [00:00]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Let's look back at 2025 and anticipate what's coming in 2026. We'll do it with Semaphore Technology editor Reid Albergatti right after this Are you.
- [00:10]
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- [00:51]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi agentic AI. They already dep called chat concierge and it's simplifying car shopping using self reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks. It doesn't just help buyers find a car they love, it helps schedule a test drive, get pre approved for financing and estimate trade and value. Advanced, intuitive and deployed. That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast, a show for cool headed and nuanced conversation of the tech world and beyond. It's the holiday season, which means one thing. You take a look back at what happened over the past year and say what's next? And if we can be right. You know, maybe three or four times out of like the 90,000 predictions we'll make, I'm sure we'll celebrate it next year. So joining us as always is, or actually joining us in key moments in history, shall we say, is 74 Technology Editor Reid Albergatti. Reid, great to see you.
- [01:56]
Reid Albergatti
It's always good to be here.
- [01:58]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I kind of emailed you and said let's do predictions, but I'd love to hear just your recap of 2025. I mean it's been a crazy year. So much funding commitments back and forth. What would you say is sort of the defining characteristic of the past year?
- [02:14]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I think, excuse me, I think that is One of them, I think the infrastructure sort of questions and just the sheer scale of it has been probably the big topic of conversation. But I also think we've been talking a lot about China recently, right? I think geopolitics has played a big role, much bigger role than it did last year. I was looking back at my predictions from last year and trying to see what did I get right and what did I get wrong. And I mean, it just seems like it was such a different world a year ago, right before the changeover in the administration. We've seen all kinds of crazy stuff happening in the Gulf. And so, you know, I think that's another, another big one.
- [03:02]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I mean, for me, like, I, I view this as sort of a year of, of scale where, like, let me, I'm just going to try to go through like the various years since ChatGPT has been released because obviously Gender VI has been the animating conversation in the tech world. I mean, 2022 was like, oh, wow, the computer can talk to you and doesn't sound like an idiot. 2023 was basically, it felt like treading water. There was a lot of like, where's this going to go? Because the capabilities weren't advanced enough. Sam Altman gets fired, reinstated. And then I think 2024 and 25 have really been the years where like, the applications are starting to material. Like, maybe 24 was when the application was starting to materialize. Like, you really had a sense that this stuff might work. And now 2025 has been like, everybody's taking all of their money and putting all of it into this project in the hopes that, you know, it really will continue growing the way that it has. Is that a good sort of representation of where we are?
- [04:06]
Reid Albergatti
I like that. I like that. Yeah, I do think that's right. And I did, I did write in the predictions last year about, you know, infrastructure and the fact that it was probably an obvious prediction, but that like, we were just going to see huge, like multiples, more compute this year than we. Than we did last year. And also talked about how these data centers were going to get so big that they're going to be. These large frontier models are going to be trained across multiple locations, which we started to see in like the last quarter. So, yeah, I mean, I totally agree with that and I think we'll see, I think we'll see that continue next year.
- [04:40]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
So if those are the labels for 2025, what do you think the label is going to be for 26? Like, if we are going to look back this time next year, where do you think we are?
- [04:50]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I mean I, I think actually we're reaching this, this point in AI where it is still going to be the major topic of conversation. But I think the, I think some of the, the sort of novelty of it is, is wearing off now and I think we'll see it kind of plateau and then I become much more important. Like, I don't think, I mean you mentioned, you mentioned the products back in 2024, but I think next year it's really going to be about the products. I don't think people are going to be getting excited about, you know, the new, whatever new model is coming out and you know, what are the capabilities? Because I think for most people they're basically good enough and it's really about just adding new products rather than like the underlying model capability. So I think that's what next year at least for consumers will be about. In the enterprise, it's maybe a little different.
- [05:44]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah, I mean, I think there's going to be some companies that will continue to push the envelope and that will be some pretty impressive news. But I also think the shakeout is coming in a way. Like to me, I think 2026 is really going to be a year of chaos. I mean we're already starting to see some of this happen with Oracle and some of the other infrastructure builders and the bets have become so big. And you know what, that's one of the things about gambling is not everybody wins their bets. So.
- [06:11]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, yeah, so true.
- [06:14]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
So, so what I'm going to do, I think that like we have a prediction episode coming up with Ron John Roy. So instead of just going like for our wild predictions, I just kind of wanted to set the table for 2026 and sort of throw some ideas about what the companies, you know, might be going through, what this chaos might look like and then sort of hear your perspective about it. Reed, does that sound good?
- [06:35]
Reid Albergatti
Sure. Yeah. And I'd love to hear if you disagree because I think this is, it's fun to argue about this stuff.
- [06:42]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Definitely. All right, let's do it. Pardon the interruption. Style meta. The question for meta is like what is going to happen to that super intelligence lab? I mean that is, it's a multi billion dollar effort. It hasn't has it produced anything and it is really going to be sort of deliver or, or chaos or crisis mode for that division next year.
- [07:04]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I think it's going to continue to be chaos and crisis mode. I mean you're already seeing stories coming out. I think it was in the Times about some sort of friction between the product teams and the superintelligence team. So I think that will continue. I think it's just so remarkable that meta, you know, they were so early on AI, they tried to acquire DeepMind before Google did and then sort of just lost focus on it. And now it just seems to be all over the place and it's going to be all about, I think for them again, it's products, right. It's like these glasses, the glasses incorporating AI into those and across its products, which has been sort of a clunky experience. Right. I don't think the Facebook and Instagram AI products that they put out have been necessarily that popular. So I think it'll just be more chaos as they, as they try to figure it out.
- [07:58]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I mean, let's flesh that out a little bit. So obviously there's one question about whether Alexander Wang is going to stay. The other is are they going to ship a leading model or at least a model that people respect. Because after, let's say Llama three, which was neck and neck with some of the state of the art closed models, they've really fallen off a cliff and they have all the expertise and all the GPUs they could want and obviously this stuff takes a long time, but yet where's the cream filling?
- [08:25]
Reid Albergatti
I think they've actually failed at that, at that strategy of sort of putting out open source models and then trying to make that the standard. They're really good at open source software. I mean they did, they've done that many times, right, with Pytorch. But I think AI is different because it's just so expensive. And I wrote about this a bunch like eventually do these models get so expensive that it just makes no sense to put out a, a leading frontier model and make it free. And you have so much competition now from China, from France with Mistral that it's just, I think at this point the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be closed models, just like OpenAI. That's my guess. I mean, I think an educated guess, I would say. I don't know if you'd agree with that.
- [09:13]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I think so. I think they're not gonna. Their open source strategy is definitely done. The question really is can they build a even closed model that rivals today's leaders?
- [09:24]
Reid Albergatti
Well, I don't think they have to, to be honest. I think that thinking about it that way is like the way A lot of people still think about AI. It's like there's this race to super intelligence. I don't think that's the case. I think at this point it's about products. And if people like the meta products that they put out there that are run on these foundation models, to be honest, they could probably be run on a lot of different models that are out there. I think it's partly ego, it's partly bragging rights, and maybe a nod to. Maybe it's really for Wall street to kind of look like you're on the cutting edge. But, I mean, I really don't think they have to. I think the models are pretty. They're good enough and they're close enough that you don't have to have some breakthrough. In fact, I think the same is true for probably OpenAI. Again, that's maybe a controversial opinion, but do you agree?
- [10:21]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Well, I was going to say. So let me throw this other thing out there, which basically is one answer to your question. As you're talking about Meta, it does seem clear that Meta can effectively fail to build superintelligence. They could fail to build the worst model and still make their products better. But then what do their products look like? There's a lot more interaction with AI in them than there were previously. You go from you friend a human to you friend your AI bot, and we've already seen that there's compelling uses for that. So maybe next year really is the moment where Facebook and I mean, we've already seen some of it with the recruiting, But Facebook and OpenAI's battle just explodes out into the open and maybe Zuck and Sam are at odds with each other and Meta might even see start to eventually see some use usage declines as people are like, I don't want to look at other people's great lives on Instagram. I want to speak with my AI therapy bot, who tells me how great I am.
- [11:24]
Reid Albergatti
Well, you know, that's interesting to think about. Like, so. So all these tech companies are always competing with each other on every front, right? They all make a product in every single category. And OpenAI has now made a social media app. Right. And I think that's sort of looking like it's failed. I mean, they threw the spaghetti against the wall, I think. Actually it looks like Facebook is. Or Meta and Facebook and Instagram are sort of competing more with YouTube and TikTok and, you know, and it's not so much social media anymore. It looks. It looks a lot like just media, right? And like television. I think that's in the YouTube strategy is like, if you talk to Neil Mohan, it's like, who's, you know, the CEO of YouTube. It's like they don't care whether it's AI generated content or human generated content. They just want to put content in front of you that you want to see and that you want to watch. And I think that's ultimately what Meta is about. I mean, it's eyeball farming, right. And so like, I don't know what the AI, what the future of social media and content is in the AI world. Like, we can make guesses about that, but Meta will see what it is and they're very good at copying that. Right. So they will just mimic whatever, you know, wherever the eyeballs are going, they'll do those products and they'll probably do, you know, they generally do a good job of that. I think.
- [12:49]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Talk a little bit more about why you don't think OpenAI needs the best models.
- [12:54]
Reid Albergatti
Well, I mean, there was an interesting story in the information today that said OpenAI's realized that there's less progress on the model front and consumers don't. It doesn't necessarily translate into better consumer products as they increase the capabilities of the models. And that's creating some tension within the company. Of course, the company responded and said that's more or less not true, but I've been calling this now for over a year, which is that OpenAI, as soon as ChatGPT came out, completely changed from a research lab to a consumer product company. Yes. They have an enterprise business that's growing and I think that could be a good revenue source. But really what they have that nobody else has is ChatGPT and a lot of eyeballs. I think it was or is the fastest growing AI consumer product and history, if you just look at the numbers and the speed of growth. So they're just, what they need to do is keep those people engaged. That's their product and they have to reduce costs. So I think when you talk about OpenAI building its own chips and data centers and all this stuff, that's all about them foreseeing the future where there's so many people using these things, it's expensive to run in the data center. They're going to have to have a strategy to control the cost and sort of vertically integrate there. It's not about like, can we build super intelligence? I think they have to. They have to keep stay on the cutting edge. But that's more because they've like, they still have a Lot of investors who believe that, you know, they've invested in this company because they're going to invent AGI and it's going to tell them how to make money. Right. And, and there's a story that they have to keep telling. And I think it's part, it's important for recruiting and all of that. But like, ultimately I think that will just become. There will be a research lab within OpenAI, just like Google has had for many years, like an AI research lab. And now that's becoming much more part of product. So that's kind of how I see it, if that makes sense.
- [15:01]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, I think I will go against you on this one. I do think they need the best models. I think their story, and their story is important, is predicated on them being out ahead of everybody else. And it was interesting how When Google released Gemini 3, before the code red happened, the underappreciated comment within that company was Sam saying there are going to be some, I guess, like, what did he say? Bad vibes or some economic. Bad, like tough economic vibes, which I think just indicates that best model story continues. And then you can sort of build the infrastructure you need to be able to deliver the products. So.
- [15:41]
Reid Albergatti
But I think.
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Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Go ahead.
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Reid Albergatti
Oh, go ahead. Sorry I cut you off.
- [15:45]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah, no, I was just going to say if you, if you fall too behind on model model development, then some of that magic evaporates.
- [15:53]
Reid Albergatti
I agree with that. But I think the thing that I'd love to get your thought on is when, when the bad vibes, the bad economic vibes, are they. Is that the, is that their customers with the products or is that more about investors and raising money and, you know, or borrowing money, that kind of thing?
- [16:13]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I think it's more about, about investors. That would be my.
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Reid Albergatti
That's what. That's right. Yeah.
- [16:18]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
But that money right now is so important to the company.
- [16:21]
Reid Albergatti
Totally, totally. And that's. And that's what I mean, I think they have to keep doing it because. But it's more about appearances. It's not, it's not like, you know, if they don't stay on the cutting edge of models, the users will go to Google or something. Right. I mean, I think there is a competition for users there, but it's much more about like, what does the actual product feel, what are consumers able to do with this, which has, I think, less and less to do with the underlying model capabilities and more to do with all the stuff they build around those models. So that's Sort of my. My view.
- [16:56]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Okay, that'll take. That'll take. I. I get that. That's important nuance, and we love doing that here. All right. Oh, we have so many companies left to do, and I think we've only really done one and a half. Google speed is. The Google thing is, like, we're going to see next year whether or not they can maintain this momentum. And if they do, they effectively become the undisputed leader in AI, given where they started and how they've been tracking. And that is. That is an impressive turnaround for them.
- [17:27]
Reid Albergatti
But.
- [17:27]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
But my. All right, I will go with my perspective on this first. I don't think they're gonna do it. I think there's been all this buzz about Gemini being so great. You use the product, it's good. It does cool things. It has really interesting features. You can talk to videos, which I like, but it doesn't feel as developed as the others do, as Claude and as ChatGPT. If you said run, go use an AI and you need to get something done right away, I don't go to Gemini. It just. It. Sorry. Well, I was going to say something mean. I just think. Not about you, it's about it. I'll say it, I'll say it, I'll say it. Gemini, to me, feels like an Axios article, right? It's like giving you the bullet points.
- [18:13]
Reid Albergatti
Oh, wow. I thought you were going to say something mean about Google, but you're okay going for Axios.
- [18:18]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
All right, I like Axios, but, you know, it just feels like, you know, oh, here, let's just give you, you know, the bullet points, then you go away.
- [18:26]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, no, I see what you mean. Actually, I like Gemini too. I use that. I think it's good for, like, you kind of said, anything visual. I used it to try to redecorate my house, which was just in mayhem. And so it was really helpful for that. I think it was. I tried ChatGPT, so I think on the multimodal front, they're better. The way I look at it, though, is not that Google, you know, caught up or something like that. I think Google was. Was already ahead on AI, but they just hadn't been thinking about productizing it yet. They were sort of like, this technology's not here yet. It's not ready yet. So we're going to wait. You could say that was a mistake or not, but, like, whatever happened is they got dragged into this, into this new world and they had to catch up. Not on AI, but just on, like, how to turn these AI, you know, this AI research into products and they pretty much have caught up. But I think they still have a big problem which is that like they're underlying, you know, they get 80% of their revenue I think from, from search, from the average search advertising ecosystem. And that's totally changing. Right? That whole industry is changing. Like it's, I think traditional search is like, is going to be just gone. Even Google search is to me totally different now. And what does that do to revenue? And I think it's just a question of like that's a very tricky balance that they have to, it's a tightrope they have to walk where they can't disrupt themselves too fast, but they kind of have to disrupt themselves. And there's a lot of ways that that can go wrong. So I kind of agree, like it's not like Google's now in the lead and they can just like continue getting better at AI. And this isn't really about being better at AI. But then again I think that's also looking at Gemini is very narrow because in a lot of ways their AI is showing up in places like self driving cars. The Waymo thing is all over the place. We could talk about self driving car predictions if you want to, but quantum computing, where you've got a potential there for you know, breakthroughs in quantum which then would feed into you know like Isomorphic Labs, their biotech spinoff. Right. Which could be whole new sources of revenue. So I think in a lot of ways like they're this giant empire that has a lot of like, I think really good things going. So I'd sort of like broaden it out beyond Gemini, if that makes sense.
- [21:02]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah, that does make sense. I mean this is like a place where I mean Waymo is brought up every couple episodes and there's the only thing you can do with Waymo is just be like they're really doing it. Google, between Waymo, AI, Quantum, I mean the fact that they acquired DeepMind, they're a smart company.
- [21:24]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I think it's a very smart company. And I think Sundar, he gets a lot of crap I think. But I mean to be able to kind of like quickly mobilize and change and like if you talk to people at Google, they're just like it's a totally different vibe now than it used to be. It's like people, it's much more of like a hey, let's get going like fast paced vibe versus kind of, I thought it was kind of a sleepy. It's kind of sleepy before that was, that was my vibe.
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Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
So yeah, it was a retirement home in a way. I mean, I know that's. Yeah, that's wrong. But there's truth in the joke.
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Reid Albergatti
Yeah. Not for everyone. Right. It's a huge company but like, you know, there were some people who for sure were taking it easy and I think they're being like sort of ushered out in one way or another. So, you know, but it's hard, it's tough to like turn around that chip. So I totally agree that they have huge challenges, but it's like such a bigger. I mean we haven't even talked about their TPUs. Right. I think so much of this AI stuff is about cost and like vertical integration and their. They're leading there. So you know, it's really, I think all this data center build out. The way I think about it is it's like the training part is like interesting but it's really about inference. It's really about serving the products to consumers and enterprise in the most efficient way possible. And like, I don't know, it's between. I mean Amazon's doing a good job of that too. So is Microsoft. But like Google seems to be just ahead there. I don't know how you feel about that.
- [22:56]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
No, I agree with that as well. My perspective on this is the Gemini hype is going to fade a little bit, but Google, the company is in really good shape. All right, I need to take a quick break. Let's come back. We'll do Amazon, we'll do Apple and we'll see what else we can get to Netflix. I don't know. Let's do that right after this. These days it feels like every dollar should be working a little harder. But figuring out where to put your cash can be confusing. That's where Wealthfront comes in. Wealthfront is a tech driven financial platform built to help you grow your savings into long term wealth. Their high yield cash account through Program banks offers a 3.25% APY on your uninvested cash as of December 19, 2025. And there are no account fees, no minimum or maximum balance to earn that rate. And you can even make free instant withdrawals to eligible accounts in just minutes 24,7 so your money can always be within reach. Right now Wealthfront is offering new clients an extra 0.65% APY over the base rate for three months on up to a $150,000 balance. That's a total of 3.90% variable APY when you open your first cash account. Go to wealthfront.com bigtech to sign up today. This is a paid testimonial for Wealthfront. It may not reflect the experience of others and there's no guarantee of future performance or success. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank rate. Subject to change. Promo terms and conditions apply. For more information, see Episode description. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi agentic AI. They already deployed one. It's called Chat Concierge and it's simplifying car shopping using self reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks. It doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get pre approved for financing and estimate trade and value. Advanced, intuitive and deployed. That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One.
- [24:53]
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- [25:35]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with Rita Albrigotti. He's the technology editor at Semaphore. Headline from the future about Amazon. I have it here. Amazon partners with OpenAI and Anthropic to bring shopping into chatbots. Are we going to see it?
- [25:58]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I mean that would make total sense to me. I think that would make total sense. Cause right now, I mean that's what people want, right? That's what everyone is trying to basically do that with Amazon now. And they would love to like disintermediate Amazon like all these chatbot companies. Perplexity too. Like they'd love to just have you be able to shop on Amazon and never have to go to Amazon. Of course, like that's a bad deal for Amazon. So the natural I think the natural solution is they've gotta work together and they gotta figure out how to, you know, with whatever it is, MCP servers or something else, to just kind of make this, make this shopping experience work.
- [26:40]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah, no, I think it's happening. And of course Amazon's eyeing this $10 billion investment into OpenAI, which is fascinating because they already have many billions in Anthropic.
- [26:50]
Reid Albergatti
That's really interesting and I think the rumor, I don't think it's been confirmed that OpenAI is going to actually use the Trainium. The Amazon Trainium chips is another really interesting one that to me, if that happens, you've got Anthropic and OpenAI using Trainium. That's a huge win for them on the custom chip front. It will help them develop their next generation of chips and I think we'll be a real competitor, not directly maybe to the TPUs at Google, but just in terms of vertical integration and cost.
- [27:25]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Right. Here's Apple headline from the future Apple. MJ Siegler and I talked about this a little while ago and it's been disputed but I'm still going with it. Tim Cook announces on first quarter conference call that he's leaving the company at the end of the year. He's going out on top. He's going to give the world his last little gift, which is the folding iPhone, which will be the flagship phone for the company. Maybe not the flagship, but the most profitable iPhone Apple has ever made. And Tim will shrug his shoulders like Michael Jordan and say what more can I do and be done?
- [28:06]
Reid Albergatti
I think, you know, I don't know if that will happen but I've read, as you said, conflicting reports on that, but probably a good move for him. I mean he's like just if you look at the market cap of that company, what he's done is incredible. And I think at his age there's just very little upside in terms of just his legacy. I don't know how much he. And you've got just so many issues with China and all this stuff. It's just like the future of Apple is such a massive headache. I think if it were me I would totally make that move. But then again that's why I'm not a billionaire CEO of Apple. So you know, they think, they think different but, but yeah, I like, I like that, I like that.
- [28:54]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Tesla. So Tesla is the, the big thing about Tesla is self driving and I wonder if 2026 could be a big year for Tesla's self driving effort. I was just in in Dallas and I got picked up in a Uber Tesla and with a human driver. But I said, hey, can you, can you flick that thing on? And he did. And I felt good enough on the highways in Dallas that, you know, it wasn't gonna crash. And it operated around curves and around traffic very well. It switched lanes. A lot of people have been saying good things about it. I don't know, Reid, is this gonna be the year? And why, why is Tesla and not really viewed in the same league as Waymo? I guess it's not as good.
- [29:39]
Reid Albergatti
Well, I mean, I think politics plays a big part in that, right? I think it's one of my gripes is like, I think tech reporters allow their personal feelings and political feelings emotions to kind of like skew their analysis of these companies. And the Tesla FSD has come such a long way. Like I tried that out when it was brand new in Sacramento with some Washington Post colleagues at the time and it was absolutely terrifying. I mean, it's amazing now. I mean, it drives you from San Francisco, go to like other anywhere basically in Northern California with barely ever having to touch the wheel. I mean, it's like 99.9% of the way there. So if they don't make some kind of breakthrough that allows them to at least in some kind of like geographical, you know, geofence area, get rid of the driver and start offering robo taxis, I think that will be, that will be a surprising loss, I think like a, like a hit on Tesla because again, they've bet the future of the company on this, right? It's not a car company anymore, it's a robotics company and they have to make this work. But the reason people don't, to answer your question, look at Tesla in the same way as Waymo is because they took a totally different approach that I think made them look like a cheap knockoff of Waymo. Right? Waymo's got these really expensive, you know, lidars and all this stuff and it's just, it's just like, you know, packed with technology. And Tesla's like, well, we're just going to do it with cameras and it's going to be, you know, it's just going to be a very simple, simple thing and took a lot of flack for that. And I think, you know what, but that, what that forced them to do was really focus on the long term problem of, you know, building these models that can, you know, essentially look at the world and reason like people, right? And that's where like these foundation models, like what Google is doing, is sort of converging now in the autonomous driving space, where you're taking a lot of the human, the painstaking human sort of edge case engineering out of it and just sort of like handing it over to the model. But again, like that night, that, that 99.9% is still like a long way from the finish line. So, you know, it could, it could go either way, I think.
- [32:07]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Here's where I think Tesla comes, you know, into league with Waymo, is if it can really get those robo taxis on the road with no safety driver and operate them safely, that's it. That, I mean, it's one thing to have like, nice autopilot on your car for like, some stretches, but once you can send, you feel comfortable enough to send these things out into the wild and let them go, that's really where interesting things happen. And I don't know, maybe they'll do it, maybe they won't. That's the great mystery of Tesla.
- [32:35]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I agree with that. There's something is going to happen in AV this year, next year, in 2026, that's going to be like a huge deal. And I think it could be a good thing. It could also be a bad thing, though, like if somebody, if a Waymo, there's an incident, like a tragic incident where someone's killed, I mean, that. Who knows how people are going to react to that. Right. I mean, this thing could, could be set back in 2026, even though the technology is really moving forward. So, you know, these aren't. This is not a rational world.
- [33:09]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
It says so much about the technology that it hasn't happened yet, that it's driven all these models all these miles and still is relatively safe. Pretty wild.
- [33:22]
Reid Albergatti
It's way safer than a human driver, for sure. Statistically. I mean, orders of magnitude safer. It's just like, that's not how we look at it. Right. We don't look at life through an economics lens. Right. It's a different calculation. So I think it's going to be eventually something will happen, and I think that's going to be like a huge test for, like, the technology, but also just like for society, like how we, how we allow this stuff to proceed. So, yep.
- [33:52]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
All right. Looking ahead to next year, to me, the biggest variable is Nvidia. Nvidia could easily. I mean, it's kind of wild to say. I feel like Nvidia could be a $10 trillion company by the end of the year. That might be an exaggeration or like $2 trillion company it could have or double, I'll say, because either the AI build out continues apace and Nvidia's in great shape, or what's happening now, which seems like some of it's being commoditized, really takes off. And then there are Jensen's there holding his power chip and being like.
- [34:28]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I think it's for sure going to lose market share. But I think the pie is growing so fast that there's just no way, there's no way they stop growing. What Wall street decides to do with that? Who knows? I mean, it could hit, I don't know. If people get spooked, I could see their stock dropping. But in the end, I mean, people are just going to be buying these chips. There's just no way around it.
- [34:54]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Microsoft, the headline that I'm thinking about for 2026 has something to do with Copilot and I don't think it's good. We've seen some of those already this year. Microsoft has disputed them. I just think the company needs to do something with Copilot. People don't like it. I mean, some people do, but by and large it's not a beloved product. They have all of OpenAI's IP and they have this very expensive add on to Office that everybody went for because it was important to do AI for a couple of years and now people are like, what is this?
- [35:32]
Reid Albergatti
I know, I agree. I think they have to do something if, if they don't. It's a disruptible product, right? Their whole, I mean, we just had a really smart story, I think by one, one of my colleagues about Excel and how they just recently raised their prices on Excel. They're still. The stickiness of these products is still like something to behold, right? Even without AI, they're still amazing. But I think eventually, as AI gets better, as the products get better, I mean it is disruptible. So they have to figure out a way to essentially turn Office and really just Office into a natural language interface where you just talk to it and it does stuff. And right now the technology isn't there. Right. It's just like they could try to do that, but it would make too many mistakes and you would. I think they get a lot of blowback for that. So they've been cautious there. The danger is that they just become like a data center company. Right. Which is not as good of a business. So yeah, I think they've got a lot of work to do for sure.
- [36:40]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Headline from the future. Netflix's Warner Brothers deal falls apart Ah, yeah.
- [36:46]
Reid Albergatti
I mean, I think one of my predictions for next year is like, we're going to see a lot of M and A, and I think the Trump administration's really kind of sending a signal like we're not going to mess with your acquisitions anymore. But this is a special case. Right. Because there's family involved, family and friends involved in this deal. And I think for sure, like, you could see it falling apart or I think maybe the more likely thing is that it doesn't fall apart, but there has to be some concession made to the Trump family, to the Ellison Group or something like that, just to kind of grease the wheels here.
- [37:29]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah. Last one I have is anthropic. My prediction is, while OpenAI doesn't IPO anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S1 next year.
- [37:43]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, I think there's a good chance the IPO next year. I think, I think it could happen. I mean, it's a good. It could be a really good time. And I think we'll see more. I think we'll see more IPOs next year. That's probably. You know, these things are notoriously wrong. It's always like the year at the IPO and then. And then something happens. But. But I would, I would bank on that happening, I think.
- [38:05]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
All right. Do you want to throw some haymakers before we leave?
- [38:09]
Reid Albergatti
Well, I think one that's going to be fun is that we're going to see more SPACs next year.
- [38:14]
Ad Narrator
Really?
- [38:15]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah. I think we had. Rachel Jones, my colleague, had a good story on how some of these critical minerals companies are doing SPACs. And it's a way to get government funding. It's sort of complicated, but I think I've heard quantum companies are going to be doing this next year. So I think, I think it's going to be another SPAC year, which. Which could be kind of fun. So that's.
- [38:39]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Is that, Is that your idea of fun? You like, you like those times?
- [38:44]
Reid Albergatti
Well, fun for me. I mean, I see. I see what it is. Fun. Fun for journalists is not always fun for, for everyone, but for the bag holder, I guess. No, it's right, exactly. But it's. I think that would be an interesting one. I think we'll see some private equity. Just looking at my list, I think we'll see a lot of these companies that are being kind of disrupted by AI SaaS, companies that are public get taken private by private equity companies. I think we'll see this state backed. I'm sure you saw this morning, the Trump administration or the Trump administration media company merging with a fusion company. So I mean just the whole like state, like tech and state backed, you know, I guess enterprise continuing is going to be. Is going to be really interesting to me. But we talked about a few. I think, I think quant. It will be another big year for Quantum. Right. I mean, I think that's going to become a big, I think a big part of this. You know, the, I guess these, these big government initiatives to, you know, push forward AI. I think Quantum will just have to be a part of that. So there'd be some fun stuff there. But, you know, I think we touched on a lot of, A lot of good ones. I know. What about you? Any other crazy ones?
- [40:10]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
My, my haymakers. Let me take a look at my. I mean, I'm talking about some of these with Ranjan, I guess. Like for me, like one of the things is like, who's gonna leave? I always like to think like, who's gonna leave. And last year my prediction was Mustafa Suleiman is going to leave Microsoft. I was wrong about that. I'd also never spoken with Mustafa before. I've spoken with him a couple times this year. I know you have. So, Mustafa, sorry for the prediction. You made it.
- [40:37]
Reid Albergatti
He stayed just to prove you wrong. Probably he did.
- [40:39]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I know and I respect that. There's nothing I can say about that. You know, maybe Alexander Wang leaves. I mean, do you think we could see any big. I guess Tim Cook is a departure.
- [40:51]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, I think there is.
- [40:55]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Yeah. No, I was going to share this. That I was going to. I was. I'm going to do this with Ranjan, but I'm going to share this here because I just think it's fun. I just think everyone's going to fall in love with their AIs. Not everyone, but I think there's going to be a love boom. That is my. That is my guess. And, and you know, if it's going to be one of those things where, you know, if people don't tell you about it, then they're definitely doing it right. It's going to be that prevalent.
- [41:23]
Reid Albergatti
I mean, yeah, I have not. I have not gotten into that yet. I. But I feel like it's.
- [41:28]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
I don't have a relationship with the bot either. But like, I just think. And it's fun to talk about because it's crazy, but yeah, people are really, really doing this.
- [41:39]
Reid Albergatti
You know, I think it's actually on that just this is like a tangent to that, which is that the stuff people are willing to say to a chatbot, where it is going to whatever they type in there, is going to the cloud, Right? Like, this is. Remember when email was new, and then all of a sudden, like, every lawsuit was, like, just a treasure trove of emails because people didn't realize that email was, like, forever. I think the same thing's gonna happen with this AI stuff. Like, it's just the stuff people are willing to divulge in an AI chatbot and literally send to a tech company. I mean, all that stuff is being kept, right? And at some point, we're just gonna see the craziest. The craziest stuff come out of what people type into these things.
- [42:25]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Oh, my God. I mean, I desperately want to tell it more because the memory features are getting good. I want it to know me more. But then my spidey sense is like, probably shouldn't put this into ChatGPT, but.
- [42:37]
Reid Albergatti
But I'm sure, yeah, well, maybe local AI. Maybe local AI is going to be a thing for that, because I think eventually people will, you know, at some point, like, people are gonna be like, oh, shit. Like, I probably shouldn't. Probably shouldn't. Just like, all of my most personal information, like, on the cloud. Yeah. And then I don't know, maybe they start. Maybe that. That actually is a big impact on. On the chat bot industry. Right. You're running on your computer, man.
- [43:05]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
2026, year of chaos. It's coming up.
- [43:08]
Reid Albergatti
All I know is that I'm going to, like, I think we'll be wrong. Like, I just. It's too. It's too much like the predictions for 2026 are, like, they're too similar to the ones for. For 2025. And it's like everything. Like, everything will change. Like, there's always going to be some dark horse that comes that pops up that we haven't thought of. I think that would be my biggest prediction, that my predictions will be wrong.
- [43:36]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
Okay, I'm with you. That's what I said. Starting off, if three of these are right, we're gonna trumpet them, and we won't ever talk about the ones that we were wrong on. All right, Reid, can you tell folks where they can find your work?
- [43:47]
Reid Albergatti
Yeah. Go to semaphore.com, subscribe to the tech newsletter, which comes out twice a week or three times a week. Week. This week, because we got some extra advertising dollars. And follow me on Twitter at my name, my full name, and yeah, send me an email and tell me what you think.
- [44:05]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
All right. It really is. It's always so much fun having you on the show and we should just do this more often next year. That's one of my predictions that I'm hoping will come true. We'll have you on.
- [44:15]
Reid Albergatti
I love that. I love that. Anytime.
- [44:17]
Host (likely a Big Technology Podcast host)
All right, everybody, thank you for listening and we will see you next time on big technology podcast.
- [44:29]
Reid Albergatti
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