Big Technology Podcast: 2025 In Review, 2026 Predictions — With Reed Albergotti

Podcast: Big Technology Podcast
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: Reed Albergotti (Technology Editor, Semaphore)
Date: December 24, 2025

Episode Overview

Alex Kantrowitz and Reed Albergotti dive into the major tech narratives of 2025 and cast forward-looking predictions about 2026. The conversation covers the shifting landscape of AI, strategic maneuvers by Big Tech companies, the evolving product landscape, and the ever-present influence of geopolitics and economic forces. The tone is sharp, nuanced, and occasionally irreverent, true to the show’s style of “cool-headed and nuanced conversation” about technology and its ripple effects in society and business.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

2025 in Review: A Year of Scale and High Stakes

Timestamps:

• Opening & Theme: [00:51], [01:57]

• Discussion Start: [02:14]

• Scale and Infrastructure:

  • The dominant theme of 2025 is the unprecedented scale-up of AI infrastructure, funding, and deployment.

  • Companies are betting big on AI projects as applications finally begin to materialize after years of anticipation.

  • Albergotti highlights geopolitics—notably China’s growing tech muscle—as an increasingly influential factor in tech industry dynamics.

    "I think the infrastructure sort of questions and just the sheer scale of it has been probably the big topic of conversation. But I also think we've been talking a lot about China recently, right? I think geopolitics has played a big role, much bigger role than it did last year." – Reid Albergotti [02:14]

• Generative AI Maturity:

  • Recapping AI’s evolution since 2022:
    • 2022: Shock at new capabilities (“the computer can talk to you and doesn't sound like an idiot”).
    • 2023: Plateau, uncertainty, and leadership drama (e.g., Sam Altman at OpenAI).
    • 2024/25: Major applications began to materialize, fueling massive new investment and expansion.
  • 2025 marks the year where "everybody's taking all their money and putting all of it into this project," pushing AI development to new heights.

2026 Predictions: Plateau, Product Focus, and Brewing Chaos

Timestamps:

• Transition: [04:39]–[06:41]

• A Plateau in AI Capability?

  • Albergotti predicts a waning of AI “novelty” in 2026. For most, the “wow” has faded; the new frontier becomes how well AI integrates into consumer products.

    "The sort of novelty of it is wearing off now... I think next year it's really going to be about the products. I don't think people are going to be getting excited about, you know, the new, whatever new model is coming out." – Reid Albergotti [04:50]

  • In enterprise, change may still be more capability-driven, but for consumers, usability and productization take center stage.

• Year of Chaos:

  • Kantrowitz forecasts 2026 as "a year of chaos," particularly for major infrastructure providers and ambitious tech bets.

    "To me, I think 2026 is really going to be a year of chaos. I mean we're already starting to see some of this happen with Oracle and some of the other infrastructure builders and the bets have become so big." – Host [05:44]

Company-By-Company: Deep Dives and “Headlines from the Future”

Meta (Facebook & Instagram)

• Status of the Superintelligence Lab:

  • Ongoing internal chaos; friction between product and AI teams.
  • Meta’s early lead in AI slipping; "chaos or crisis mode" expected to persist.

    "It's going to continue to be chaos and crisis mode... there's friction between the product teams and the superintelligence team. So I think that will continue." – Reid Albergotti [07:04]

• AI Product Integration:

  • Facebook/Instagram AI products reportedly underwhelming users.
  • Meta’s open source approach likely winding down due to high costs and competitive, global landscape.

    "They've actually failed at that strategy of sort of putting out open source models and then trying to make that the standard." – Reid Albergotti [08:25]

• The Real Challenge:

  • Need to create valuable AI-infused consumer experiences rather than chasing superintelligence or model leaderboards:

    "Thinking about it that way is like the way A lot of people still think about AI. It's like there's this race to super intelligence. I don't think that's the case. I think at this point it's about products." – Reid Albergotti [09:23]

OpenAI

• Product vs. Model Progress:

  • Despite slower progress on model capabilities, ChatGPT’s massive consumer traction makes OpenAI less dependent on breakthrough models—product stickiness matters more.
  • Friction within OpenAI as increased model capability hasn't translated cleanly to better products.

    "OpenAI, as soon as ChatGPT came out, completely changed from a research lab to a consumer product company." – Reid Albergotti [12:54]

  • Building proprietary chips and data centers is about controlling operational costs, not just advancing AI.

• Need for Leading Models:

  • Kantrowitz sees maintaining technical leadership as vital to OpenAI's investor story and competitive edge.

    "If you fall too behind on model development, then some of that magic evaporates." – Host [15:45]

  • Both agree that investor perception and hype play major roles in OpenAI’s trajectory.

Google

• AI & Gemini:

  • 2025’s buzz around Gemini is tempered; the app’s features are impressive, but not as holistic or user-ready as ChatGPT or Claude.

    "Gemini, to me, feels like an Axios article, right? It's like giving you the bullet points." – Host [17:26]

  • Google’s real strength lies in its infrastructure (TPUs, vertical integration), and bets on Waymo, quantum computing, and biotech (Isomorphic Labs).

    "In a lot of ways their AI is showing up in places like self driving cars. The Waymo thing is all over the place. We could talk about self driving car predictions if you want to, but quantum computing, where you've got a potential there for breakthroughs in quantum which then would feed into their biotech spinoff." – Reid Albergotti [18:25]

• Company Culture:

  • Massive internal culture change, shedding its “sleepy” reputation for a fast-paced, more driven environment.

    "It's much more of like a hey, let's get going like fast paced vibe versus kind of... sleepy before." – Reid Albergotti [21:24]

Amazon

• Integration Into AI Chatbots:

  • Likely to partner with OpenAI and Anthropic for shopping in chatbots.

    "That would make total sense. ... All these chatbot companies would love to just have you be able to shop on Amazon and never have to go to Amazon. Of course, like that's a bad deal for Amazon. So the natural solution is they've gotta work together." – Reid Albergotti [25:58]

• Custom Chips (Trainium):

  • A rumored adoption of Trainium chips by OpenAI and Anthropic seen as a major victory for Amazon’s vertical integration strategy.

    “If that happens, you've got Anthropic and OpenAI using Trainium. That's a huge win for them on the custom chip front.” – Reid Albergotti [26:50]

Apple

• Tim Cook's Departure & Folding iPhone:
  • Kantrowitz forecasts (speculatively) Tim Cook’s exit after launching a record-breaking folding iPhone.

    "Tim Cook announces... that he's leaving the company at the end of the year... and be done." – Host [27:25]

  • Albergotti sees Cook’s exit as plausible, given Apple's gigantic scale, China risks, and lack of upside for Cook’s legacy.

Tesla & Self-Driving

• Progress on FSD (Full Self-Driving):
  • Tesla's approach (camera-based vs. lidar) has long made it an “underdog” but performance has improved massively.
  • Yet, 99.9% reliability is not enough; actual robo-taxis without human drivers will be the real inflection point.

    "If they don't make some kind of breakthrough that allows them to at least in some kind of, like, geographical, you know, geo-fenced area, get rid of the driver and start offering robo taxis, I think that will be... a surprising loss, I think." – Reid Albergotti [29:38]

Nvidia

• Future Value:
  • Kantrowitz floats a wild market cap surge ($10T) if buildout continues, but sees commoditization as a looming threat.
  • Albergotti believes market share will slip, but growth persists due to expanding demand.

Microsoft

• Copilot Concerns:
  • Kantrowitz claims Copilot is not beloved, and Microsoft must do more with it or face disruption.

    "I just think the company needs to do something with Copilot. People don't like it... it's not a beloved product." – Host [34:53]

  • Danger of Microsoft becoming "just a data center company" if productivity suite isn't radically reimagined with AI.

Netflix, Warner Bros., & Media M&A

• M&A Rumors:

  • Prediction: Warner Bros. deal may fall apart or require family/political concessions.

    "I think maybe the more likely thing is that it doesn't fall apart, but there has to be some concession made to the Trump family, to the Ellison Group." – Reid Albergotti [36:46]

• Anthropic & IPOs:

  • Albergotti sees a strong chance of an Anthropic IPO, alongside a broader IPO resurgence in 2026.

Far-Out/“Haymaker” Predictions

Timestamps: [38:05] onwards

• Return of the SPAC:

  • Anticipation of another SPAC surge, especially in quantum and critical minerals.

• Rise of State-Backed and PE-Driven Tech:

  • State intervention and PE buyouts of disrupted SaaS likely.

• Quantum Tech as a National Priority:

  • Quantum expected to gain government backing, tied increasingly to AI initiatives.

• AI Love Boom:

  • Kantrowitz predicts many will fall in love with their AI bots, with social implications as social relationships morph.

    "I just think everyone's going to fall in love with their AIs. Not everyone, but I think there's going to be a love boom." – Host [40:55]

• Data Privacy & Chatbots:

  • Concerns and predictions about the (lack of) privacy with cloud-based AI interfaces; eventually, “craziest stuff” users say to chatbots could leak or surprise the world.

    "The stuff people are willing to say to a chatbot... is going to the cloud, right?... I think the same thing's gonna happen with this AI stuff." – Reid Albergotti [41:39]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Shift to Products Over Models:

  "I think the models are pretty. They're good enough and they're close enough that you don't have to have some breakthrough. In fact, I think the same is true for probably OpenAI... Again, that's maybe a controversial opinion."
  – Reid Albergotti [09:23]

• On Google's Corporate Culture:

  "It's much more of like a hey, let's get going like fast paced vibe versus kind of, I thought it was kind of a sleepy... sleepy before."
  – Reid Albergotti [21:24]

• On Tesla’s Self-Driving Approach:

  "Waymo's got these really expensive, you know, lidars... Tesla's like, well, we're just going to do it with cameras and it's going to be... a very simple, simple thing and took a lot of flack for that. And I think, you know what, but that... forced them to do was really focus on the long term problem of... building these models that can, you know, essentially look at the world and reason like people."
  – Reid Albergotti [29:38]

• On AI Relationships:

  "I just think everyone's going to fall in love with their AIs... It's going to be one of those things where, if people don't tell you about it, then they're definitely doing it right. It's going to be that prevalent."
  – Host [40:55]

• On Predictions:

  "There's always going to be some dark horse that comes that pops up that we haven't thought of. I think that would be my biggest prediction, that my predictions will be wrong."
  – Reid Albergotti [43:08]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [02:14] – 2025 Review: Scale, Infrastructure, and Geopolitics
• [04:39] – 2026 Preview: Plateau, Products Take Center Stage, Chaos Begins
• [06:41] – Meta’s Superintelligence Ambitions and Open Source AI
• [10:21] – OpenAI: Leadership, Models, and Product Focus
• [17:26] – Google: Gemini’s Progress, Company Culture, Broader Bets
• [25:35] – Amazon: Shopping in Chatbots, Chip Strategy
• [27:25] – Apple: Tim Cook Exit Rumors, Folding iPhone
• [28:53] – Tesla: Self-Driving, Robo-Taxis, and Industry Comparison
• [33:52] – Nvidia: Continued Growth or Commoditization?
• [34:53] – Microsoft: Copilot’s Mixed Reception, Platform Risks
• [36:40] – Netflix, Warner Bros., and M&A Outlook
• [37:28] – Anthropic and the IPO Pipeline
• [38:05] – Haymaker Predictions: SPACs, Quantum, AI Love Stories
• [41:39] – Data Privacy and AI Chatbots
• [43:08] – Meta-commentary on Predictions

Final Thoughts

The episode offers a spirited, nuanced dissection of tech’s momentous year and what’s next—sharp predictions, healthy skepticism, and a few tongue-in-cheek curveballs about AI’s cultural impact. Reed Albergotti and Alex Kantrowitz balance realistic takes on industry hurdles with speculation about left-field disruptions, reminding listeners how quickly and unpredictably the tech landscape evolves.