Big Technology Podcast: "AI’s Crucible Year, TikTok’s Lifeline, Manifesting Your Best Self" (Released January 4, 2025)

Host: Alex Kantrowitz

In the January 4, 2025 episode of Big Technology Podcast, host Alex Kantrowitz engages in a thought-provoking dialogue with guest Ranjan, delving into the pivotal developments shaping the tech landscape this year. The conversation navigates through the tumultuous journey of AI advancements, the ongoing TikTok saga, and the burgeoning trend of manifesting, offering listeners a comprehensive overview of the current technological and cultural shifts.

1. Introduction to 2025 Tech Landscape

The episode kicks off with Alex highlighting the significant milestones and challenges anticipated in 2025. He mentions setbacks faced by OpenAI’s eagerly awaited GPT-5 model and introduces the intriguing developments surrounding TikTok and the rising popularity of manifesting.

Alex [00:00]: "A major year for AI gets underway, but OpenAI's most anticipated model is beset by setbacks. TikTok gets a lifeline from Donald Trump and why is everyone manifesting all of a sudden? That's coming up right after this from LinkedIn News."

2. OpenAI’s GPT-5: Delays and Challenges

A substantial portion of the discussion centers on OpenAI's struggle with the development of GPT-5, internally known as Orion. The Wall Street Journal’s revelations about the extensive delays and exorbitant costs underscore the immense challenges OpenAI faces.

Alex [07:53]: "OpenAI has conducted at least two training runs, each of which entails months of crunching huge amounts of data with the goal of making Orion smarter. Each time, new problems arose and the software fell short of the results researchers were hoping for."

Ranjan emphasizes the tension between OpenAI’s research ambitions and the practical needs of productization, suggesting that the focus on creating exponentially powerful models might be hindering the development of user-friendly applications.

Ranjan [09:33]: "I think overly focusing on GPT5 could actually be the thing that hurts them even more because I don't think they're going to create some kind of model that magically solves everything."

Alex counters by acknowledging OpenAI’s dual approach of pursuing advanced models while attempting to productize through initiatives like Sora, their AI video generator. However, he raises concerns about the sustainability of OpenAI's strategy given the "data wall" — the limitations in acquiring sufficiently diverse and expansive datasets necessary for training more advanced AI models.

Alex [14:05]: "Once the training began, OpenAI researchers discovered a problem with the data. It wasn't as diversified as they thought, potentially limiting how much Orion would learn."

3. Meta Ray-Bans vs. Apple’s Smart Devices

Transitioning to hardware, Alex and Ranjan discuss the innovative Meta Ray-Bans, exploring their functionalities and the privacy trade-offs they entail.

Ranjan [04:05]: "The quality of the audio not being in-ear but being essentially like speakers to the side of you. It really feels like the most revolutionary part of the product is I started using it more to interact with my iPhone than Siri because Siri is still garbage."

This led to a broader conversation about the competitive dynamics between Meta and Apple, particularly focusing on privacy concerns and the potential for Apple to introduce its own smart glasses featuring cameras.

Alex [04:30]: "And we know that Apple has these new AirPods in development that have cameras on them as well. So that's going to be really fascinating to watch the two of them."

4. Apple’s Critique on AI Reasoning Models

The podcast delves into Apple’s recent research critiquing AI’s reasoning capabilities, revealing significant performance drops when models are presented with altered or irrelevant details in tasks.

Alex [19:29]: "Researchers at Apple recently released a paper that argues that reasoning models including versions of GPT were more than likely mimicking the data they saw in training rather than actually solving new problems."

Ranjan interprets this as Apple's strategy to manage expectations around AI advancements, positioning themselves as a more reliable and privacy-focused alternative in the AI domain.

Ranjan [20:29]: "Apple Intelligence has promised a lot, they have over promised but on the other hand they have the least invested in having to win this game."

5. 2025: The Crucible Year for AI

Both Alex and Ranjan concur that 2025 is a defining year for AI, describing it as a "crucible" where the future trajectory of artificial intelligence will be determined based on the successes and failures of current endeavors.

Alex [21:48]: "I think this is a pretty important year for the AI field. I'm calling it a crucible year. I think that if the field cannot deliver on some of these bold promises, whether that's on research or productization, it's going to be a very, very tough couple years following."

Ranjan echoes this sentiment, predicting the emergence of new players like Anthropic or Perplexity, which might outperform the established giants by focusing more on solving immediate customer problems rather than solely pursuing groundbreaking technological advancements.

Ranjan [22:28]: "I think we might start seeing different names popping up, the ones who could actually solve the customer problem better."

6. TikTok’s Legal Battle and Potential Resolution

The episode shifts focus to the ongoing legal and political battle surrounding TikTok. Alex outlines Donald Trump’s recent petition to the Supreme Court to pause the TikTok shutdown, invoking a bipartisan clause that allows the President to lift the ban if TikTok is deemed no longer under Chinese control.

Alex [29:04]: "Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to pause the TikTok shutdown... he can say, yeah, it's not really under Chinese control anymore and that congressional law is effectively nullified."

Ranjan speculates on various outcomes, including the possibility of Trump declaring TikTok divested without actual structural changes or even a potential acquisition by figures like Elon Musk, further intertwining the fates of major tech entities.

Ranjan [31:14]: "I think that would be the most incredible way where ByteDance in no way divests TikTok. But on January 20, Trump says, I believe that ByteDance has divested TikTok. This is no longer a relevant matter."

7. The Rise of Manifesting on Social Media

A notable segment explores the trend of manifesting, particularly its adoption on platforms like TikTok. Manifesting, defined as the practice of using positive thinking and visualization to achieve goals, has evolved into a popular content theme encompassing everything from spiritual practices to engaging with social media algorithms.

Ranjan [37:48]: "I was reading a Wall Street Journal article about the TikTok ban... modern manifesting remains a broad term covering a range of practices."

Alex and Ranjan discuss the implications of integrating manifesting with social media algorithms, highlighting how user engagement with positive content can reinforce the visibility of similar content, thereby creating a feedback loop that shapes user experiences and behaviors.

Alex [42:26]: "If you hover on good content on the for you feed, you'll get more good content... I saw things where you do things like you whisper out loud the name of your crush or who you want the boy you want to text back and things like this."

While Alex embraces the concept with enthusiasm, Ranjan expresses a nuanced view, recognizing both the empowering aspects and the potential for manipulation through algorithmic reinforcement.

Alex [43:20]: "I think this is how culture is heading into 2025."

Ranjan [43:28]: "This is why this was such a... I don't know, I don't know how I feel about this, Alex."

8. Conclusion and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Alex and Ranjan reflect on the intertwining of technological advancements and cultural trends. They emphasize the importance of staying informed and adaptable in an ever-evolving tech landscape.

Alex [45:02]: "We're happy to be back. We're thinking positive thoughts and podcasting only brings out the positive vibes."

Ranjan concludes with a light-hearted note on the future of manifesting and the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective amid rapid technological changes.

Ranjan [45:10]: "We're happy to be back. We're thinking positive thoughts and podcasting only brings out the positive vibes."

Key Takeaways:

• OpenAI's Struggles: Significant delays and high costs in developing GPT-5 highlight the challenges in advancing AI to meet both research and market expectations.
• Meta vs. Apple: The competition between Meta's innovative hardware and Apple's privacy-focused approach underscores the dynamic rivalry in the tech ecosystem.
• AI's Crucible Year: 2025 stands as a pivotal year for AI, determining the sustainability and direction of current technological pursuits.
• TikTok's Uncertain Future: Political maneuvers and legal battles continue to shape the fate of TikTok, with potential outcomes ranging from divestment declarations to acquisitions.
• Manifesting and Algorithms: The integration of manifesting practices with social media algorithms reflects a broader cultural shift towards blending personal development with digital engagement.

This episode of Big Technology Podcast offers a deep dive into the intricate interplay between technological advancements, corporate strategies, and cultural trends, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the forces shaping the tech world in 2025.