Big Technology Podcast: "AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos Ladder, 2026 Crystal Ball"
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: MG Siegler
Date: January 12, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode features tech commentator MG Siegler, joining host Alex Kantrowitz, to discuss whether AI needs a “Steve Jobs” figure to catalyze mass consumer adoption, how the AI arms race has shifted the power structure among major tech companies, and bold predictions for 2026 in the tech industry. The conversation covers the unique challenges of marketing AI, leadership personalities, big tech’s AI struggles, product predictions, and potential industry shakeups.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Does AI Need Its Own Steve Jobs? (01:36–13:20)
- MG Siegler’s Thesis: AI, poised as a transformational technology, is hampered by a perception problem—especially in the US—creating skepticism and resistance among consumers and regulators. Siegler suggests the industry may need a charismatic evangelist akin to Steve Jobs (03:59).
- “If AI is going to live its potential, it needs to get through this perception problem. Otherwise it's going to struggle to catch on with consumers, struggle to catch on in society, maybe face regulation and a host of other…negative things.” – Alex Kantrowitz [03:17]
- Comparing AI’s Messaging to the iPhone:
- Jobs excelled at making technology relatable; ChatGPT and generative AI struggle with abstract, open-ended use cases.
- Charismatic pitching for software is inherently harder than for tangible consumer hardware (06:37–08:41).
- Jensen Huang’s Approach:
- Nvidia’s CEO praised as today’s closest parallel to Jobs—making chip keynotes “must-see TV,” even if the hardware is invisible to most consumers.
- “He’s genius when it comes to the showmanship. Right? Like he brings out the big shield and…is holding it up like an Avenger…he knows how to…make it relate to people.” – MG Siegler [08:44]
- Nvidia’s CEO praised as today’s closest parallel to Jobs—making chip keynotes “must-see TV,” even if the hardware is invisible to most consumers.
- AI’s Creepiness & Data Bargain:
- Unique to AI: it demands unprecedented personal data, fostering wariness.
- Relationships with AI (e.g., chatbots, “sexbots,” emotional dependence) add new layers of discomfort and risk (13:20).
- “Maybe cool in a way, but also somewhat creepy…You almost kind of want them to not think about it, like being in a casino and not thinking about the days passing.” – Alex Kantrowitz [13:04]
The Challenge of Trust and Personality in AI Leadership (16:53–26:20)
- Public Distrust of AI Leaders, especially Sam Altman:
- Analysis of negative public sentiment toward OpenAI’s Sam Altman, possibly fueled by the OpenAI-to-for-profit story and his feud with Elon Musk (18:04–21:06).
- “All of the feedback you see…is exactly what you're talking about. Like these super negative, quick to judge things that just do not trust…Sam in particular.” – MG Siegler [18:39]
- The “missing Jobs” issue: None of today’s major AI figures (Altman, Suleyman, Hassabis, Panay) have managed to spark wide public excitement or trust (21:55–23:55).
- “I do not think that they're going to be the ones who are able to sell this the way that Steve Jobs could sell an iPhone to the public. And maybe no one can…” – MG Siegler [24:53]
- Analysis of negative public sentiment toward OpenAI’s Sam Altman, possibly fueled by the OpenAI-to-for-profit story and his feud with Elon Musk (18:04–21:06).
- OpenAI’s Product Strategy:
- OpenAI lauded for shipping products and setting the industry’s pace, even if they lack a Jobs-like figure.
- “OpenAI deserves a lot of credit for moving that forward…and getting us to the point where every time OpenAI launches something…it’s a big industry moment.” – MG Siegler [23:58]
- OpenAI lauded for shipping products and setting the industry’s pace, even if they lack a Jobs-like figure.
Big Tech’s Tumult: The AI “Chaos Ladder” (29:57–45:02)
- AI’s Reshuffling of Tech’s Power Structure:
- Kantrowitz and Siegler discuss how the AI revolution has not solidified Big Tech’s positions, but instead destabilized them, with tech giants sometimes losing ground to the AI labs themselves. (29:57–33:55)
- Microsoft: Early lead with OpenAI partnership; now appears adrift without a clear breakout consumer AI product, and only leveraging AI through Azure cloud.
- Amazon: Partnership with Anthropic now feels diluted. Alexa’s evolution to Alexa+ is incremental, not revolutionary.
- Apple & Meta: Both lagging with no clear AI product. Apple is newly aligned with Google’s Gemini, but lacks native AI leadership.
- Google: Currently strongest position, especially after sealing the Siri Gemini deal with Apple (32:18–36:31).
- “Google was…super depressed. Fast forward to today…they’re up one and a half trillion…I do view them right now as the most stable.” – MG Siegler [33:53]
- AI Labs on the Rise:
- OpenAI and Anthropic seen as increasingly dominant, with established Big Tech firms struggling to keep pace in a ground-up, AI-native product era.
- “What standout AI product does Microsoft have outside of selling AI services from Azure? …What standout AI product does Apple have? We both know that they don't have one.” – Alex Kantrowitz [39:05]
- OpenAI and Anthropic seen as increasingly dominant, with established Big Tech firms struggling to keep pace in a ground-up, AI-native product era.
- Nvidia as Prime Winner:
- Regardless of chaos elsewhere, Nvidia remains the clear hardware beneficiary.
Why Ground-Up AI Products Win (41:05–44:41)
- Native AI Products vs. Bolted-On Features:
- The next tech giants will be those building AI products from scratch—not retrofitting legacy platforms.
- “You can't just bolt AI on the existing products. You need to build ground up.” – [41:49]
- Parallels drawn to the mobile app revolution, where incumbents were outpaced by mobile-first upstarts (Uber, Airbnb).
- Examples: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini are all “ground up,” while Microsoft Copilot’s branding and integration is a “mess.”
- The next tech giants will be those building AI products from scratch—not retrofitting legacy platforms.
The 2026 Crystal Ball: Predictions (46:55–54:19)
- Apple’s Folding Phone & 2026 Surge:
- Siegler predicts the Apple folding phone will be a major hit, especially if paired with strong Gemini-powered Siri integration (46:55–48:27).
- “If they nail the screen without a crease…then you go into…maybe there's different ways to sort of frame it that does end up being a success.” – MG Siegler [48:05]
- Siegler predicts the Apple folding phone will be a major hit, especially if paired with strong Gemini-powered Siri integration (46:55–48:27).
- Tim Cook’s Imminent Retirement:
- Multiple reports suggest 2026 is Cook’s last year as Apple CEO, with John Ternus or Craig Federighi as likely successors (49:26–52:15).
- “I think there's too much smoke now. Like clearly the pieces are being put in place for [Cook] to at least have the optionality to step back.” – MG Siegler [49:26]
- Apple likely to accelerate search for an AI “czar” to helm its in-house push.
- Multiple reports suggest 2026 is Cook’s last year as Apple CEO, with John Ternus or Craig Federighi as likely successors (49:26–52:15).
- Potential Perplexity Acquisition:
- Siegler predicts AI search engine Perplexity will be acquired in 2026, possibly by Samsung or another tech giant (53:02).
- Both hosts are skeptical of Perplexity’s independent future given competition from Gemini and ChatGPT.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On AI’s Trust Problem:
- “Maybe it's cool in a way, but also somewhat creepy…You almost kind of want them to not think about it, like being in a casino and not thinking about the days passing.”
— Alex Kantrowitz [13:04]
- “Maybe it's cool in a way, but also somewhat creepy…You almost kind of want them to not think about it, like being in a casino and not thinking about the days passing.”
-
On Jensen Huang vs. Jobs:
- “He's genius when it comes to the showmanship…he brings out the big shield and you know, is holding it up like an Avenger and it's got chips on it and stuff.”
— MG Siegler [08:44]
- “He's genius when it comes to the showmanship…he brings out the big shield and you know, is holding it up like an Avenger and it's got chips on it and stuff.”
-
On Big Tech’s AI Misses:
- “What standout AI product does Microsoft have outside of Azure…what standout AI product does Apple have? We both know that they don't have one.”
— Alex Kantrowitz [39:05]
- “What standout AI product does Microsoft have outside of Azure…what standout AI product does Apple have? We both know that they don't have one.”
-
On Ground-Up Competitive Advantage:
- “You can't just bolt AI on the existing products. You need to build ground up.”
— Alex Kantrowitz referencing Sam Altman [41:49]
- “You can't just bolt AI on the existing products. You need to build ground up.”
-
On Apple’s Next Chapter:
- “I think there's too much smoke now…clearly the pieces are being put in place [for Tim Cook] to step back…”
— MG Siegler [49:26]
- “I think there's too much smoke now…clearly the pieces are being put in place [for Tim Cook] to step back…”
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 01:36 – Show starts, topics overview, AI’s Steve Jobs intro
- 03:59 – MG Siegler outlines the AI/Jobs thesis & international perceptions
- 06:37–08:44 – Can anyone pitch software like Jobs? Enter Jensen Huang/Nvidia
- 13:20 – AI’s trust & creepiness factors
- 18:04–21:06 – The Sam Altman trust gap and leader personalities
- 23:55 – Assessment of current AI figureheads
- 29:57–33:55 – The AI “Chaos Ladder”: Big Tech’s shifting fortunes
- 39:05 – The missing Big Tech killer AI products
- 41:05–44:41 – Ground-up AI product scenarios, history parallels
- 46:55 – Apple predictions: foldable phone, Cook retirement
- 53:02 – Perplexity acquisition speculation
Tone & Style
The conversation is candid, skeptical, and richly informed. Both host and guest balance tech optimism with a healthy dose of realism and are unafraid to call out both triumphs and failings among industry giants. The discussion is occasionally laced with humor and layered references to Silicon Valley history.
For Further Exploration
- Spyglass: MG Siegler’s newsletter (spyglass.org)
- Upcoming Guests: Arthur Mensch (Mistral CEO), for more European AI perspective
This episode offers a candid look at AI’s perception issues, the importance (and current absence) of charismatic leadership, and the challenges legacy tech giants face when competing with AI-native upstarts. Insightful both for industry insiders and tech watchers alike.