Big Technology Podcast: Alex And Ranjan’s 2026 Outlook

Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guests: Ranjan Roy
Air Date: December 26, 2025
Episode Theme:
In this special year-end episode, Alex Kantrowitz and Ranjan Roy trade predictions for what’s ahead in tech in 2026. The discussion covers everything from agentic AI and ChatGPT user growth to Apple’s possible resurgence, new consumer hardware, the future of AI-based shopping, the looming “AI love boom,” and the turbulent financial and social ramifications of rapid AI adoption.

Episode Overview

Alex and Ranjan take turns sharing and debating their boldest and most interesting forecasts for tech in 2026. The episode’s lively banter revisits notable trends from 2025 and looks ahead at pivotal shifts: the mainstreaming of agentic AI, the arrival (or absence) of ubiquitous AI devices, major changes in consumer tech (especially at Apple), new shopping paradigms, massive cultural shifts in AI companionship, and disruptions in the financial infrastructure underpinning AI.

Key Predictions & Discussion Points

1. Agentic AI Becomes Real (02:04)

• Ranjan Roy: Predicts that “agentic AI”—AI that autonomously strings together actions and workflows—will expand beyond enterprise into many aspects of daily life.
  • “I think in 2025 everyone said it, everyone had kind of this like vision … this RPA plus vision. … But now we’re seeing it in how ChatGPTs of the world work. … And I think it’s going to expand into all parts of our life beyond enterprise.” (02:04)
• Notable Insight: People will start identifying parts of their lives where AI agents can take over sequences of tasks, not just single responses.

2. ChatGPT Passes One Billion Users (03:31)

• Alex Kantrowitz: Declares confidently that ChatGPT will cross the billion-user mark by April 2026, marking a milestone for AI.
  • “ChatGPT hits a billion users and we know it’s at 800 million now. I expect it will hit a billion by April next year at the latest. … There’s not many products that have a billion users out there.” (03:31)
• Ranjan jokes that this prediction is “the safest one,” possibly achieved even sooner.

3. Foldable Phones Have Their Moment (04:34)

• Ranjan: Personally commits to buying a foldable phone, predicts the category will finally catch on as meaningful hardware innovation.
  • “The form factor has not evolved since basically the original iPhone. … And the foldable phones are the first place I’ve seen that in a long time … I will be unfolding my phone with a smile on my face in 2026.” (04:34, 05:38)
• Alex: Quips that “people with foldable phones look happy.” (05:16)

4. Apple’s Big Year – Despite AI Gaps (05:48)

• Alex: Boldly forecasts that 2026 will be Apple’s “best year ever,” especially with the iPhone 17’s strong reception and a highly anticipated, premium-priced foldable phone.
  • “Apple’s gonna have an absolutely incredible year in 2026. … I think 2026 will be Apple’s best year ever; they’re going to sell a ton of phones, they’re going to add to that user base; they’re going to price their foldable phone at $2,000. … Everyone will love it.” (05:48)
• Even if Siri isn’t improved (“Will Siri work better?” —“No. But it’s not going to matter.” 07:02), the continued hardware success will drive growth.

5. Public Scandals Over Recording/Transcribing (07:06)

• Ranjan: Predicts heightened controversy over pervasive recording or transcribing in public by AI devices (e.g., Meta Ray-Bans, automatic call transcription), leading to regulation and cultural backlash.
  • “We’re already starting to see it … I think there’s going to be some major controversy, backlash around people [using these devices]. I think it’s going to inform the whole world of AI devices that Sam and OpenAI and everyone else is talking about.” (07:06)
• “Glass holes 2.0,” referencing the backlash against Google Glass. (08:18)

6. No Breakout Year for AI Devices (08:43)

• Alex: Counters the hype by saying there will be “no AI device breakout” in 2026; mainstream adoption remains elusive.
  • “We’re still in like the Humane pin era and we are not moving to something that is going to be ubiquitous … I still think the phone is powerful.” (08:43)
• This feeds Alex’s belief in continued phone dominance and Apple’s strong year.

7. AI Shopping Goes Mainstream (09:38)

• Ranjan: Predicts shoppers will increasingly turn to chatbots like ChatGPT or Gemini for purchases, making routine shopping conversational and automated.
  • “AI shopping is going to become a real thing. … When you are buying your supplies for that hiking trip next year ... you’re just going to talk to ChatGPT or Gemini and it will go out, find the best price, order the package.” (09:38)
• Reminisces about Amazon Dash for one-button orders—AI-first shopping is the next step.

8. The AI Love Boom (12:30)

• Alex: Envisions 2026 as the year when AI companionship goes mainstream: people will openly bond with, even fall in love with, AI bots.
  • “We’ve tended to hear about it when it goes really bad. I don’t think people … are coming out … talking about how deeply in love they are with their bot. … As the functionality gets better … people en masse are going to fall in love or build or name AI as one of their … top five friends. I think that’s definitely coming next year.” (12:30)
• Ranjan draws a parallel to early online dating, asking if this is the inflection point where digital companionship loses its taboo (13:38).
• They riff on what gifting means for AI companions—maybe buying more compute, upgrading to Pro accounts:
  • “What does your AI companion want for Valentine’s Day? More compute. You know, move up the tier to GPT Pro.” – Ranjan (15:29)
  • “It’s love language is quality time. But to spend quality time, you need gift giving. You need to buy that time.” – Alex (15:45)

9. 2026: AI’s Best and Worst Year (15:53)

• Ranjan: Calls for a “best and worst” year ahead—adoption and breakthroughs, but also a financial and infrastructural reckoning, especially for less “core” tech companies like Oracle.
  • “We’re going to see much more widespread adoption, major breakthroughs, but also … the kind of like financial arrangements … takes a big hit next year. … I think … all of those trades that just kind of ran as pure momentum this year, I think we’re going to see a big washout.” (15:53)
• Foresees significant market volatility, possible stock setbacks, and related impacts on politics, including the 2026 midterms (16:42).

10. OpenAI’s Competitive Outlook (18:25)

• Alex & Ranjan: Explore whether OpenAI will remain the AI leader or lose ground to Google (Gemini), Meta, and Microsoft.
  • “But I don’t think [OpenAI is] leader. … Meta starts to maybe do something interesting on the consumer side. … At every level, they’re going to be challenged in a bigger way next year.” – Ranjan (18:29)
• Both agree OpenAI is unlikely to IPO in 2026 (19:12).

11. The Impact of AI Model Efficiency (21:00)

• Alex: Wonders whether rapid improvements in AI efficiency—making intelligence “too cheap to meter”—could trigger a new crisis or disrupt current business models.
  • “If the bots get as good as they can be … without requiring all this compute. … Intelligence is now too cheap to meter. … I don’t know, is there [a crisis]?” (21:00)
• Ranjan: Sees this fitting his “best and worst” year thesis—wave of creative application but dislocation for the financial infrastructure around Big AI (21:50).

12. Winners, Losers, and Corporate Futures (22:16)

• Both suggest Google could be next year’s big tech winner; Meta might struggle or pivot, especially with underperforming AI bets (22:25). Alexander Wang’s job security at Meta is questioned after lackluster results (22:35).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Ranjan Roy:

  • “Agentic AI… is going to expand into all parts of our lives beyond enterprise.” (02:04)
  • “I’m going to buy a foldable phone. … I will be unfolding my phone with a smile on my face in 2026.” (04:34, 05:38)
  • “There’s going to be some major controversy… backlash around people [using AI devices to record in public].” (07:06)
  • “I think 2026 is going to be both the best and worst year for AI.” (15:53)

• Alex Kantrowitz:

  • “ChatGPT hits a billion users … by April next year at the latest.” (03:31)
  • “Apple’s gonna have an absolutely incredible year in 2026… price their foldable phone at $2,000. Everyone will love it.” (05:48)
  • “No AI device breakout in 2026. … I still think the phone is powerful.” (08:43)
  • “We’re going to see an AI love boom in 2026. … People en masse are going to fall in love or build or name AI as one of their top five friends.” (12:30)
  • “What does your AI companion want for Valentine’s Day? More compute. … Its love language is quality time. But to spend quality time, you need gift giving. You need to buy that time.” (15:02, 15:45)

Additional Memorable Moments

• Ranjan and Alex joke about “Glass holes 2.0” (Google Glass throwback, 08:18).
• Playful sidebar about foldable phone users being universally “happy.” (05:16)
• Speculation on how “public market pressures” could influence AI product evolution during an “AI love boom.” (19:48-20:21)
• Closing mutual appreciation for their Friday analysis sessions:
  • Alex: “Thank you for the analysis and the insight and the fun that you bring to the show…” (23:34)
  • Ranjan: “It’s the best way to end the week.” (24:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:04 – Agentic AI goes mainstream
• 03:31 – ChatGPT projected to hit 1B users
• 04:34 – Foldable phones prediction
• 05:48 – Apple’s “best year ever” prediction
• 07:06 – Public scandals over recording/transcribing
• 08:43 – No AI device hits ubiquity
• 09:38 – AI-powered shopping
• 12:30 – The “AI love boom”
• 15:53 – AI’s “best and worst year”
• 18:25 – OpenAI’s competitive position
• 21:00 – Model efficiency and AI business impacts
• 22:16 – 2026’s potential top tech company
• 23:34 – Hosts reflect on their partnership

Summary

This spirited Big Technology Podcast episode offers a rapid-fire forecast of AI’s 2026 trajectory—predicting more autonomous AI, ChatGPT’s continued dominance, big moves from Apple, discomfort and controversy around public AI, and a full-blown societal reckoning with digital companionship. Alongside the playful banter sits serious speculation on the market disruption and cultural realignment that could shape the next year in tech. For 2026, the only certainty is unpredictability—and perhaps more laughter from Alex and Ranjan each Friday.