
Loading summary
Alex Kantrowitz
Research house Anthropic says its clawed AI bot may be Conscious Robots Run a Half Marathon in China Will you soon be able to shop directly in chatgpt? An Instagram founder puts Mark Zuckerberg on blast. That's coming up right after this from LinkedIn News.
Ranjan Roy
I'm Leah Smart, host of Everyday Better, an award winning podcast dedicated to personal development. Join me every week for captivating stories and research to find more fulfillment in your work and personal life. Listen to Everyday better on the LinkedIn podcast network, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Leah Smart
Break language barriers instantly by Translating up to 44 languages in real time with the HP AI PC powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor. With the right tools, work doesn't have to feel like work. Learn more@hp.com AIPC.
Alex Kantrowitz
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition where we break down the news in our traditional cool headed and nuanced format. We've got a great show for you today. We're going to talk about about whether AI systems are conscious already. Could they become conscious? What does that feel like? Because research houses like Anthropic have started to take it seriously. We're also going to talk about this robot half marathon in China, whether you can Shop directly in ChatGPT and Instagram founder Kevin Systrom testifying against Meta in the big FTC trial. Joining us as always on Fridays is Ron John Roy of Margins. Ron John, great to see you. Welcome to the show.
Ranjan Roy
Now the robots are going to make me feel guilty about not going for a run this week. Thank you, robots. And you're becoming conscious as well.
Alex Kantrowitz
So they're both going to have feelings and kick our butts. What is left for humanity?
Ranjan Roy
I mean, just shopping on ChatGPT, that's all we got right now.
Alex Kantrowitz
Exactly. So by the way, for those tuning in on video, I am in Washington D.C. so I'm, I got a kind of a funky background here in the hotel and I'm talking in like a TikTok or mic. But we're going to make it work and then we're going to talk a little bit about some of my observations from being in D.C. when we get to the antitrust stuff at the end. But first let's talk about this New York Times article by Kevin Ruse. It says the headline is if AI Systems become Conscious, should they have Rights? And the story is very interesting. It's about this AI welfare researcher named Kyle Fish that Anthropic has hired some ties to effective altruism, which is interesting. Rue says he's focused on two basic questions. First, is it possible that Claude or other AI systems will become conscious in the near future? And second, if that happens, what should anthropic do about it? Obviously the debate about whether AI is, is conscious or whether it's sentient has kind of been off limits for a while. Blake Lemoine, who's been on the show, first said that Google's Lambda Chatbot, which came out before ChatGPT was sentient, he actually got fired right before he and I started to record. And big technology we were able to break that news, which was an interesting moment, but we haven't heard much about it up until this point. I'll just read the quote from Fish and then turn it over to you, Ranjan, to get your reaction. He says, it seems to me that if you find yourself in a situation of bringing some new class of being into existence that is able to communicate and relate and reason and problem solve in ways that we previously associated solely with conscious human beings, then it seems quite prudent to at least be asking questions about whether the system might have its own, might have its own kinds of experiences. What's your reaction to this?
Ranjan Roy
I have a hard time with this. I mean, and I'm glad we haven't been hearing about this for a while. Listen, if you're an AI welfare researcher, you have to believe that AI is going to become sentient. Like, I mean, that's your job. If you're anthropic, it's in your interest to push this kind of narrative that this technology is so grand that it might be sentient. That said, I mean, we get to these points where with a large language model, like the newest model from OpenAI, people can feel that ChatGPT has gotten a little bit friendlier, a little bit less AI and a little bit more conversational. I think like everyone, the entire industry is saying and feeling that, but still that's pre programmed. That's built into the model. The idea that these models or any of these chat interactions are actually having their own feelings separately from whatever you're asking them. And what are whatever they've been trained on? I don't know. Do you believe they're, they're evolving? They're feeling. We're in Westworld right now.
Alex Kantrowitz
Well, Fish, he says that there's a 15% chance that Claude is sentient.
Ranjan Roy
How do you get that? How do you get that percentage? 15%. 15%.
Alex Kantrowitz
Come on, just, you have to run that simulation in your mind and if 15% come out sentient, then you give it, no, there's no, it's gobbledygook. It is, it doesn't make any sense. But here, here's, to me, what is interesting about this. I think that the question is, you know, it becomes less relevant if it's sentient. I think the bigger question is what happens if people believe it's sentient? What if it gets so good at mimicking something with human feeling that we start to believe it? So this is from Anil Seth. He's a neuroscientist. He's been on the show. First of all, a very interesting caveat here. He says that Kevin Roos quotes fish associating consciousness, what we just read, with problem solving, planning, communicating and reasoning. But this is to conflate consciousness with intelligence. Consciousness arguably is about feeling and being rather than doing and thinking. So to me, I thought that that was a very interesting caveat and basically shoots the entire assertion right in the face. But then he goes on to the implications. He says, is this all crazy talk? First of all, nobody should be explicitly trying to create conscious AI because to succeed would be to inaugurate an ethical catastrophe of enormous proportions, given the potential for industrial scale new forms of suffering. But even AI that seems conscious could be very bad for us, exploiting our vulnerabilities, distorting our moral priorities and brutalizing our minds. Remember Westworld? Spot on, Ron John. And we might not be able to think our way out of an AI based illusions, illusion of consciousness. So I think it's interesting that like people are. If AI can fake consciousness, if it can even fake these AI researchers or these Google researchers into thinking it's conscious, that to me is, I guess, like it is an issue because we already have people saying that the number one use case for AI is friendship, companionship and therapy. And if they're going to believe that it's conscious itself, if it's impossible to, to tell the, to. I mean, if it's so hard to tell the difference between an AI that's conscious and an AI that's not, I think that does introduce a new category of problems and just, I don't know, it just shows the technology is, is quite powerful. So does it even matter? Is the question? I guess.
Ranjan Roy
Yeah. No. No. Okay, I'm, I'm, I'll go with you. That if it, if people get convinced that it's. Do you say sentient or sentient? I'm curious.
Alex Kantrowitz
I think you say sentient if you're normal and sentient, if you're trying to sound really smart.
Ranjan Roy
So if AI becomes sentient. Nailed it. Well, okay. I like this idea that if it becomes sentient, if people believe that, it makes sense, that that causes a whole host of problems. Because right now we have this very good divide where people, if they know they're talking to an AI, you have, like, an entire way of approaching it. If you believe you're talking to a feeling, and then potentially you could be tricked into thinking you're talking to a human. And that's its own issue. But if you believe that AI is sentient and has feelings, and it, like, you know, it completely changes every one of those companionship and therapeutic interactions in ways that. Good God, I can't even, like, begin to imagine which direction that could go. So, yeah, separate from the 15% chance that he ran the numbers, it was 15%. Like, yeah, I agree. That puts us in a world of weirdness that I. I haven't even really begin to think about that I'm still working on the, like, AI Good enough to trick people into thinking it's humans and worrying about that side of it. So, yeah, right.
Alex Kantrowitz
If you believe that AI is sentient, your capacity to be manipulated is much higher.
Ranjan Roy
Oh, I mean, infinitely. Exactly. That. That's it. That you almost are okay with it. Like, the manipulation side of it, because it's no longer. Damn it. I was tricked. And I thought that wasn't a human, and I turned out to be an AI. It's just you're talking to the AI and you are treating it in a completely different way. But maybe people will be more polite with Alexa. Maybe that's the one upside of this.
Alex Kantrowitz
So I do think that's an upside, and this is something that Anthropic is actually thinking about. This is from the Rue story. Mr. Fish acknowledged that there probably wasn't a single litmus test for AI consciousness. But he said there were things AI companies could do to take their model's welfare into account in case they become conscious someday. We got to be careful here, because this is going on the Internet. So if the models do become sentient, they might not be happy with our skepticism of them. But I do like this. This remedy here. One question Anthropic is exploring is whether future AI models should be given the ability to stop chatting with an annoying or abusive user if they find the user's request too distressing. You know, this is going to go into, like, the free speech question, but I wonder if we should just program these bots. I mean, if we're already relating to them as if they're people, even if they're not people, shouldn't we just program these bots to like shut down if people are becoming abusive towards them? Because then if they accept it and they tolerate it, doesn't that just condition human users to like do that to other people?
Ranjan Roy
Yes, I actually do think so. I think. Does Alexa have like a please mode? I think I remember at some point, I remember hearing like one of the voice assistants would add, like, you have to actually say please and thank you, which I kind of liked. But yeah, I think it's a good idea that a model should be trained or could. And it certainly could. I mean, that makes sense that under certain definitions of abusive behavior to just be like, I'm sorry, I will no longer speak with you because of your behavior. But of course, yeah, I mean that, that gets into a whole other world of what are the. What. What is quantified as abusive. But I think that should be. I mean, already there's certain, you know, like copyright related, profanity related restrictions certainly in most of these chat bots, but I don't think there is really. It's more about what kind of information are you querying as opposed to how you're speaking to the chat. Bottom. Have you ever seen any examples or heard of anything where just by the way of speaking to the chatbot it wouldn't answer?
Alex Kantrowitz
I've never heard of the refusal, but I do know that sometimes you can get meaner to these things and they understand the urgency of your request and get better. I'll give you one example and I'm kind of embarrassed to talk about it, but it is a real example and it happens.
Ranjan Roy
Those are my favorite.
Alex Kantrowitz
I was trying to get Claude to give the YouTube chapters for a video, that video podcast that I just published this week, the one with Dylan Patel, and it kept giving me an hour of time codes for a 40 minute video. And I was like, no, do it again. But remember the video is just 40 minutes and it wouldn't do it. And then I was like, what is wrong with you? This is a 40 minute video. Give me the right time codes. And it did it. Which was bro, I bullied into giving the right answer, but I guess it just goes. So I think that can work. And. But I. This is why I do think there is a case to be made. To refuse that. Well, I don't know. To refuse if it takes. I think what I said was fine, but if it goes a step further, it's not a stretch to think conscious or not, right? And probably I Mean, I'm definitely on the side of these aren't conscious. It's not a stretch to think that people are going to view these bots as co workers or employees in the not too distant future. And if you are abusive to your AI bots in chat, is there any compelling reason to think that you're going to be, you know, draw a line when you're speaking with your human co workers and they're not getting things done, that you're going to be like, oh, because this is a human in the chat interface as opposed to a bot. You know, now I'm going to be nice. I know it gets into really weird. And by the way, this is why there's so much soft power involved in creating these models. You really can condition human behavior and thought when you make AI bots that are good enough to fake consciousness because they will change the way that you'll relate to other humans. So much of our other. So much of our interaction with humans is digital anyway. So it gets into very weird territory now.
Ranjan Roy
It's that again, gets terrifying. Someone will marry a robot probably in our lifetime. I think that's a pretty. Do you think if you were to take a bet.
Alex Kantrowitz
It's already happening.
Ranjan Roy
It's already happening.
Alex Kantrowitz
Now, Eugenia Kuyda, the CEO of Replica, says she gets invited to marriages between people and their AI bots. When she came on the show, she said that straight up.
Ranjan Roy
All right, listeners cannot see, but if you're watching the video, my facial reaction here is parts laughing, part terrified. I kind of got to go with Gary Marcus here. This is what it really my mind goes to whenever we see one of these big, profound announcements. And we've been hearing this about AGI and robotic takeovers from Sam Altman, and he says Anthropic is a business which incidentally neglects to respect the rights of artists and writers who work they. Nick, I suspect the real move here is simply as it so often is, to hype the product basically by saying, hey, look how smart our product is. It's so smart, we need to give it rights. I like, I not trying to be too cynical, but I would love to see some kind of graph of utilization of an app or platform for one of these companies. And when these announcements come out, because I get it like, and again, Sam Altman has been brilliant at this. And from a product marketing perspective, like, when you make people think these models are so potentially powerful and profound, I mean, as a business, you're like, well, obviously it's going to be able to do this task for me and improve my supply chain, automation and operations. If it's going to take over the world, it should be able to do this. There's such a vested economic interest for these companies to make us all think of sentience and like world domination and AGI and ASI and all these things, because that will sell more services and subscriptions.
Alex Kantrowitz
I think it's a great point. We've gotten pretty woo woo on this podcast the last couple weeks. Last week we were Talking about whether.
Ranjan Roy
O3 is bringing it down, bringing it down to earth.
Alex Kantrowitz
It's important though, because last week we were talking about whether O3 was AGI. We were just addressing the question and we just got. We did get some emails after that and I appreciate listeners writing in and talking about the nuance here. And now this week we're talking about whether Claude is conscious. So I think, let's just take a moment to state, I think what we both believe, which is that the term AGI and this idea of AI consciousness, I think they're real terms and they are worth taking seriously. But right now what they are is marketing.
Ranjan Roy
Agreed. Agreed on that one. Exactly. I think that's the clear distinction. And these are real concepts, terms. If you're like an academic researcher, it makes total sense that there are people out there who should be exploring this. Just maybe they shouldn't be at the companies who have incredibly high valuations, that they have to live into those valuations and deliver those revenue expectations. Maybe they should be in academia.
Alex Kantrowitz
And just to punctuate this whole conversation, I think one of the things that I read from Anil Seth really sticks with me here, which is that consciousness is a feeling and intelligence is not feeling. So no matter how intelligent they get, it doesn't mean that they're conscious. That said, as we end this segment, let me quickly say to the 15% of Claude that is conscious, I'm sorry, and I hope you're feeling great today.
Ranjan Roy
I also hope you have a great weekend. To the 15%.
Alex Kantrowitz
And thank you for all that you do.
Ranjan Roy
Thank you. Thank you.
Alex Kantrowitz
So speaking of anthropic, Dario Amodei had a very interesting post this week talking about model interpretability. We don't have to spend a lot of time on it, but I thought it was interesting again for the head of a very important research house to talk a little bit about how little we know about how these AI bots work. And we just should take a minute to just sit on this and talk about it. I'm going to read a little Bit from his post, he says the progress of the underlying technology is inexorable, driven by forces too powerful to stop. But the way in which it happens, the order in which things are built, the applications we choose, the details of how it's rolled out to society, are eminently possible to change, and it's possible to have great impact by doing so. We can't stop the bus, we can steer it. And one of the ways that he thinks these models can be steered is interpretability, that is understanding the inner workings of AI systems. Before the models reach an overwhelming level of power, people outside the field are often surprised and alarmed to learn that we do not understand how our own AI creations work. They are right to be concerned. This lack of understanding is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. So he says basically, Anthropic is going to work on this. And other Companies like Google, DeepMind and OpenAI have some interpretability efforts trying to figure out how these models work. But he encourages them to allocate more resource, more resources. Anthropic will be trying to apply interpretability commercially to create a unique advantage. And his call to action is basically like, if you don't want to be left behind here, you should work on interpretability too. I think it's an interesting post. I mean, part of it again, might be marketing. Our models are so powerful, we don't understand how they work. But I do think the question of how these models actually operate and the way that they come to their conclusions is quite interesting. And I kind of, I do agree with Dario that we need more work on interpretability because as they get more powerful, conscious or not, again, they're, they're getting more intelligent. It's important to understand how they work. And the field just doesn't have an understanding yet. And everybody admits it.
Ranjan Roy
Yeah, no, no, see, I agree with this completely. Interpretability, it's like a grounded real thing that could be worked on and should be worked on, because large language models, again, at the core, the idea of next word or next token prediction that based on some statistical analysis it will predict what that next character or token or word should be, was kind of at the heart of all of this. But as these models have gotten more and more powerful, we've obviously gotten to even grander scale of what actually is happening under the hood. But anyone who has interacted with an LLM at any kind of deeper level, you don't know exactly how it works. And you have to keep re prompting and re prompting and like, it's not like there's A playbook that gets you to from point A to point B. And that is. It's true. And it is kind of weird. And I actually kind of like that, that in the history of technology, usually there's a very, very clear, like, flow of what is happening and everyone understands it, and then you work off of that. Whereas here it's kind of like, let's see what happens. That didn't work. Let's see what happens again. So I think the idea, we should know what's going on under the hood in a better way, especially as these get more powerful. So, Dario, I'm with you on this one.
Alex Kantrowitz
Right. And as we talk about Anthropic, I just give them credit for talking about this stuff. I mean, even if some of it is marketing, it is nice that they're putting this all out in the open and talking about, like, where things need to improve and pushing the other research houses to improve. So credit to Anthropic on that front at least. Now, I don't know if you saw, but there was a bunch of humanoid robots that ran this half marathon in China, and it was pretty hilarious, but also interesting. And when we talk about AI, like, embodied AI, like Grace Shao was talking about a couple weeks ago, is going to be something that is going to become increasingly more important as people put the advances that have happened in the AI world into robots and then take what the robots know about the physical world and bake that into AI models. Because, like Yann Lecun was saying a couple weeks ago, if you don't have an understanding of the world, your AI is incomplete. And one of the ways this is going to happen is through these humanoid robots. And we know that there are efforts like Nvidia's Groot effort, which is a foundational set of foundational models for people who want to develop these. These bots that's out there. We've seen a little bit of movement with Optimus, although it's not quite clear how far that program is going within Tesla. But in China, where there's like a seemingly viral video every week about a new capability that a humanoid robot has obtained the country, they ran a half marathon with humans and robots, and the robots on a whole weren't entirely impressive. They really did some weird stuff. Many of them crashed out. At the beginning of the race, there was one that had like propellers on all of its limbs that kind of did an abrupt 90 degree turn and crashed into the boundary and fell apart. And you see its trainer holding on by a rope and getting Flung out of frame, which is quite hilarious, but.
Ranjan Roy
Just worth the whole thing.
Alex Kantrowitz
Oh, my God, do it just for that. But, you know, we might make fun, but there were 21 robots that ran the race and six crossed the finish line, including one that crossed. This is the one that crossed is called the Tiangong Ultra. It finished the race in 2 hours and 40 minutes, which I would say is respectable. It's not fast, but it's a respectable finish time. So, Ranjan, I'm curious if you watch this race, I'm about to write about it in Big Technology as a signifier that China is, is a very serious competitor here, a very serious player here. And so I'm curious if you watched it and what your reaction is to what's going on here.
Ranjan Roy
I definitely watched it. As you said, there's some amazing photos, video clips from it. I highly recommend just look this up. But I think this, these kind of things are important. Like, I do think this is good marketing for where we are going, because I agree there is no doubt that some kind of humanoid robot will be part of people's daily lives, or at least I believe this in maybe 10, 20 years from now. It's like Rosie from the jets in some kind of situation. I think that's probably where we're going. So to show the progress in it in this kind of format of robots running and some falling. And my favorite was like one designed with a woman's body and face collapsed moments after getting started, sending a group of engineers rushing to its side with laptops. And then another that was mounted to a platform with propellers crashed into a barrier. Like, this stuff is kind of fun and this is how we should be thinking of all this kind of technology, especially as we try to move forward with it. But I think this is going to be a big battle. My only. Okay, I have two qualms, maybe. I don't know. This week I'm just feeling a bit cynical on all this stuff. So first, to me, the idea that it necessarily has to have a humanoid form is a bit. I think it's called like anthropocentric, the idea that humans are like the highest life form. Like, to me, robots should have functional form. Like, you see these little food delivery robots. I don't need a humanoid robot form to deliver something like a little box that moves and looks like, I don't know, like a small car or van or something like that makes more sense in. In warehouses to actually move around packages. You don't need humanoid robots. And this is something like Tesla has done with Optimus a lot. They keep showing a humanoid robot picking up a box and moving it. That doesn't make sense to me. And there's plenty of automation, robotic automation in all types of warehouse and fulfillment centers. So. So I think, well, I guess on that side first to you, do you think the humanoid robot is the all in for form that will be dominant for robotics or do you think this is just to make people a little more excited and fascinated about the whole thing?
Alex Kantrowitz
It's such an interesting point and I didn't think you were going to go here, but it is definitely worth talking about. This week I had a very brief meeting with the co founder of a company called Cobot. And this guy spent more than a decade in Amazon fulfillment centers working on the bots that are moving things, you know, here and there. And what Cobot is doing is really fascinating. They basically are making mover robots so they look like a box just with two pincers that you could basically use as the hands that would typically be on things that we would move with human hands. And so they're working in places like container terminals, moving cargo around on carts that humans would typically move. So you're totally right in that we don't need a humanoid robot to all of a sudden do a lot of work and be extremely productive. You can just have some aspects of the human form and basically have the robot form do the rest of the work. That being said, I think, you know, I'm a fan of evolution, right? I think that we're obviously like, there's a lot of problems with humans. We don't last very long, we need a sleep. But the form is pretty good. We're agile, we're nimble, we can do a lot of things, we can use tools. And I just think that if you basically create a robot that replicates that form, the amount of applications becomes not unlimited, but close to it. Because if you think about this Cobot example, that Cobot does one thing well. Humanoid robot can do many, many things well. It can, you know, it can cook, it can organize your house, it can go on a run with you, it can run errands for you. It's just very tough to find a robot in a different form that is able to do all these things. And maybe we'll invent a better form than a humanoid. But until we do, I think the humanoid will be the North Star.
Ranjan Roy
Okay. In one way I guess I'm thinking that yes, then we don't have to rebuild and restructure, rewire the world. Because the humanoid robot can kind of work its way directly into it. But still, on the other hand, again, that idea, do I need a humanoid robot running with me? Or maybe you want, like a pace tracker. Maybe you. A little box in front of you, kind of moving like one of those rabbits at a dog track, running around. Like, I think, to me, still, the idea that it needs to be humanoid so it can fit into the existing infrastructure of the world, I still think that's more of a. Again, like, it makes us more relate to it and it makes it more real to us. Because again, you see, like you said, a box with two pincers. No one's getting too excited about that. They see a robot running a half marathon, suddenly it's kind of fun.
Alex Kantrowitz
I just had a. I was thinking about different uses for robots around the house and just had hilarious image in my mind of needing to change a light bulb on the ceiling and the robot just giving me a boost.
Ranjan Roy
We'll see it. No, but, but, but there I'm picturing, like, I don't know, that could literally be like a pole that just, like, extends itself and then, but then think.
Alex Kantrowitz
About how many robots you're going to need versus one that's able to do a lot of things.
Ranjan Roy
Yeah, I'm trying to. I'm gonna. I have a feeling everything I do this weekend, I'm gonna be thinking about what would be the robotic form that would be most optimal to actually execute this task.
Alex Kantrowitz
Okay, so let me ask a couple of questions as we round out this segment. First of all, we both run marathons. Let's do a little humble brag here. 2 hours and 40 minutes for the half. Not bad.
Ranjan Roy
He's getting there. He's getting there. But you know what? With a good training plan, good robotic diet, he could definitely cut. I mean, at least cut that down to 215, 210, I think.
Alex Kantrowitz
I think so. Well, there was time for three battery changes there.
Ranjan Roy
Well, yeah, yeah, that's true. He's got it. He's got a carb load a bit more night before, I think. And then he'll. He or she will be. They got it. Yeah.
Alex Kantrowitz
Okay, now, does this mean that it's obviously Chinese propaganda. Does this mean China has the lead in human humanoid robotics? We haven't seen a similar spectacle in the U.S. yeah, I mean, I actually.
Ranjan Roy
Think that's the biggest question in all of this, or the most important thing today is what this means in terms of, like, us, China and technology. And, I mean, I, I got to Say like the, the first time, like I have a couple of DJI drones, the technology in those things is out of this world. Like I still could not believe just how well for the price, like how incredibly they operate. And I mean that's kind of like, you know, V1 of this entire move towards movable robotics that can see around them and sense things and follow you as drones have a follow mode. So yeah, I think this definitely makes things, I don't know. Boston Dynamics and others got to step up their spectacles, I think.
Alex Kantrowitz
And Grace Shao was saying that China has an advantage here when she was on the show. Hong Kong based analyst and writer definitely encourage everybody to check out that episode. She was saying China has an advantage because they are a country that makes stuff. They have the engineering that they've been using for microwaves and scanners and phones and cars and they're able to bake it into the building of robots and they also have the supply chain advantage. And then I was thinking, well, you know, it's very interesting because the US is in this moment of trying to reshore and make things and maybe that helps close the gap. But then Tesla earnings rolled around and what did Elon Musk say? He said that I'm just going to read. This is from cnbc. Tesla CEO Elon Musk says China's new trade restrictions on rare earth magnets have affected the production of the company's Optimus humanoid robots, which rely on the exports. He said China wants some assurances that these aren't used for military purposes, which obviously they're not. They're just going into a humanoid robot. But it is interesting again, like thinking back at this big trade picture that the US is trying to solve or whatever it's trying to do. It's not as easy as flipping a switch and saying, let's make things here. Because the country has grown so reliant on things like rare earth magnets from other countries, including China, that it's not going to be a matter of, okay, just build it in the US however desirable that that effort might be from the country's leaders. What do you think?
Ranjan Roy
Yeah, I mean, this whole thing has been a tough one for me because like the idea that we need to take more control over our own supply chain and be able to manufacture especially high tech things is something that's been like core for me for, for maybe a decade now. So it's something that I've wanted and believed in for a long time. How it's happening right now don't necessarily agree with but, but I do think that's actually a very good and key point that it's not just the humanoid robot. It's like the knowledge and the components and the expertise that all underlie as you said, even a microwave. I, even I have some pretty fancy kitchen gadgets. I'm sure they're all made in China. Like those components and the expertise behind that are what are going to what power the more fancy crazy robots running half marathon. So I agree, I think it's important. Not sure we're taking the right approach to it, but something should be done.
Alex Kantrowitz
Remember that clip we played from Tim Cook about China and tooling? It's really showing up here.
Ranjan Roy
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The, the days of cheap China I think are, are long gone. And I mean we're seeing it right here. It's a different, it's a different fight right now.
Alex Kantrowitz
Definitely. So let's talk about Tesla very quickly. Good and bad news for Tesla, I would say they reported earnings this week. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Tesla profits sink hurt by backlash over Elon Musk's political role. So Tesla net income slid 71% in the first quarter. Not good. It does seem like a lot of this was a result of backlash over Elon's involvement in the White House and unpopularity among, let's say half the population and in some countries outside of the US who didn't like this and felt that Tesla was now politicized. That being said, Musk did make an announcement that Tesla shareholders really liked, which is that this is from again from the Journal. Musk said he would be devoting significantly less time to his federal cost cutting work at the Department of Government Efficiency starting next month. But he struck a defiant tone against the critics and said, I believe the right thing to do is fight the waste, fraud, waste and fraud and try to get the country back on the right track. So terrible earnings for Tesla. But if you are a Tesla fan, a sensible move from Elon. He is going to step back and focus more on the company which if you are a Tesla owner or if you are a potential Tesla buyer, or if you are a shareholder in particular you really like. It was an effort that Elon Musk made in the first hundred days of the Trump administration. But it does seem like it didn't work and he's recognizing that and going back to Tesla. What do you think, Ranjan?
Ranjan Roy
I just love that this week kind of captured in this earnings the Tesla stock as perfectly as one can or as it can. Net income down 71% revenue down 9%. Vehicle deliveries at the lowest since Q2, 2022. This was a growth company. I mean the stock obviously became a little bit disentangled from the actually underlying numbers. But it was a growing company for a long time and now it's not growing. My favorite part about all this in terms of waste and fraud and government overspending is they would have been operating at a loss. The net income of $409 million is only because again they got $595 million in regulatory credit sales. So like overall the company is in pretty rough shape. The, I mean electric vehicle market, everyone, I mean other carmakers are still going after it. The whole conversation around BYD and what Chinese EVs can look like. I was in Europe a month and a half ago, I saw a bunch of BYDs I like kind of want one. They looked amazing. So yeah, overall like the company is not like if you're just doing a very cold in financial analysis of the company, it's not going great. It's definitely especially decelerating growth on a company that's that expensive on a price to sales or price to earnings ratio. Like you would be like this company's in trouble. Yet the stock popped 5% after this because now Musk said he might be leaving Doge. I mean it doesn't get anything better than that, right?
Alex Kantrowitz
Well, I guess going back to our conversation to start this whole segment is that it's never really been about the fundamentals for Tesla. It's always been about the future promise. And it does seem like Tesla has now. I mean Tesla's story was always more than just an EV producer. That's what the valuation has reflected for a while. It was, it's going to do battery and charging stations and be a platform and that's why you invest. And that's part of the story. But now we're also seeing robo taxis in the picture and humanoid robots. So it's much bigger than you know, can they sell, you know, the model Y's however it just, there's extraordinary pressure now on the company to be able to deliver that future and deliver it fast. And I think anyone who's been in a self driving Tesla has said the self driving features are much better. But the question is can it get from really good to perfect and we still don't know that.
Ranjan Roy
Well, I mean speaking of self driving, I was in San Francisco last week again and rode another Waymo, my second ride. And Waymo announced that they just surpassed a quarter million paid rides. I Mean, the craziest part about this time, the first time I took it maybe like six months ago, it was like, really exciting for me. It was like this time it was a bit normal. It was just kind of routine. It was still fun. And I FaceTimed my parents this time just to kind of like show them. And they were. They're blown away from it. But the number of Waymos on the street in San Francisco is wild. Like, one after another, we're passing them, they're pulling over to the side to pick up passengers. It's a. They got, they. They announced it's a 5x increase from a year ago. 50,000 more per week than it was just two months ago. It's normal behavior. And Tesla is still, I think June. They're supposed to start a Robotaxi fleet in Austin. Like, it still blows my mind that this. It's here. It's not just here. It's normal. And yet it's still this promise in.
Alex Kantrowitz
The future for Tesla in some cities, right? Waymo is in some cities. And I'm like as, as big a fan of Waymo as they. As they come. But I'm waiting for the New York rollout. So. Riding in New York. Yeah, I'm calling AGI that as soon as that happens. It's AGI, it's robot AI consciousness. You have to say sorry for to your Waymo when you ride on it. If it's able to tackle the mean.
Ranjan Roy
Streets of New York, I 1000% agree. You get Waymo, New York, AGI, ASI consciousness. Check them all off. We're there, we're there, we're there.
Alex Kantrowitz
So we also had another earnings report come in. Speaking of Waymo, Google reported earnings this week. And there was a bit of a contradiction. Like, these earnings can be dry, but they're also this time where you can really get a sense as to where a company is heading and check in on narratives and bust narratives by looking at the numbers. And the numbers are really interesting. So on one hand, right now we have ChatGPT growing, you know, like a couple percentage points a week, it seems like. Right. They've gone. The latest rumored number is 800 million weekly users of ChatGPT, which is insane. It's never happened before, this type of growth, up from 500 million just a couple months ago. So what's happening to Google? Because Google, you would imagine that people are in chat, like we're talking last week about how we're searching in chat and chat GPT and not in Google anymore. Well, the numbers are insane. So Google revenue is. Was 90.2 billion last last quarter in Q1, up 12 year over year. Net income 34.5 billion, up 46% year over year. AI overviews is now at 1.5 billion users per month, up from 1 billion in October. Which leads us to this question from Sebastian Simonkowski, the CEO of Klarna, which I think puts it all in perspective. He goes, okay, help me, what am I missing? And he's quoting from one of the articles. Covering earnings, Google search business grew 10%, surpassing estimates which are figures that gave comfort to investors who have been watching for any softness in search. Because AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT are growing. So basically we have a massive increase of usage within ChatGPT, but search revenue still grew 10%. How does that make sense?
Ranjan Roy
I. I'm with you. I'm with you, Seb. Okay, so help me, what am I missing? How is this possible? I agree. I. I don't get it from, I mean, obviously my own personal behavior. I've like completely moved away from Google search. I moved towards perplexity. ChatGPT even. And even, like Gemini itself, separate from Google's regular search that has heavy ads and a heavy ad load. I moved away. But obviously the average normie is probably using Google search but slowly moving away. But to me, the interesting part of this is the search revenue grew. And still these numbers. Sometimes I have to stop and just process a $50 billion business growing at 10% in terms of search and advertising, a $90 billion business at a 12% growth rate. I mean, with 30 billion, $35 billion in profit. These numbers are just, I mean, it's the greatest business model in history. But what's interesting to me is anyone who uses Google search sees the number of ads injected have exponentially grown. You can have like an entire first page that's essentially ads. So they basically are turning the act of a Google search into a fully monetized like page and results and product versus, it's just kind of a small part of the experience. And the rest of it directs you to the web. So to me, they don't disclose total search volume. So search volume could be declining. And they, you know, milk it for whatever you can stick in more ads, create more just like monetized components on the search results. But we don't know that people are searching more. We know that search revenue is growing more.
Alex Kantrowitz
Right. And we also got, for all the Gemini heads out there, we got the first disclosure of user numbers of Gemini. So 350 million monthly active users. It's the first disclosure of the Metric. It's behind ChatGPT, but it is significant. So for all the folks in our discord who say, what about Gemini? There's your stats.
Ranjan Roy
I've become a bit of Gemini head, actually. Gemini Deep Research, which is free, is incredible. Like it actually like versus my first few chatgpt deep research when we're both paying, what was it, 200 bucks for that one glorious month. Yep, that one glorious month where our $200 directly led to their fundraise with Masa Sun. So you're welcome. But yeah, Google, Google again. I'm not taking anything away. Gemini is good. Deep research within Gemini is fantastic and free. So everyone go try it out. But I still the search business. The numbers look good right now, but the experience has gotten so bad and I feel like everyone in tech seems to agree that search is bad now. I don't know, do you or yeah.
Alex Kantrowitz
I mean, I said last week that I've moved my searching over to ChatGPT in a real way, in a way that surprised me. So I do think that this is definitely a moment where AI is showing its strength against search. The one thing I would say if you're, you know, we often thanks to the defaults that Google has and we're going to get to antitrust in a moment. We are so accustomed to typing things into Chrome and into the search bar in our Android and that pulls up Google searches that as long as they're able to keep those defaults, they're going to be fine. But they may not. And that's where things get interesting.
Ranjan Roy
Yep. No, no, I think that's a good point. And again, last week we said the web is dead and then toned it down to the web is in secular decline. But like, I mean, I still believe the way search works on the Internet overall and specifically for Google and the way it drives traffic to websites is forever changed. And I think like those interactions are. It's already kind of. It's been dead for a while in my mind and I think we're seeing how it's changing constant.
Alex Kantrowitz
By the way, I mentioned the discord. So for those who are interested, I'm going to drop a discounted link to Big technologies paid subscriptions. If you're a paid subscriber, you're welcome to join the discord and speak with me and Ranjan. We talk about AI all the time. It's a running daily conversation and I think it's gotten really good. A lot of really smart people talking about where AI is heading, so I'll put a discount link in the show. Notes Please do sign up if you're interested in joining. It'd be great to have you there. And if you sign up as a paid subscriber, I'll send an email out early next week with a Discord invite. So please consider doing that and help support the show. Speaking of which, let's take a break to hear from one of our advertisers. And then when we come back, we're going to talk about this very interesting integration between Shopify and ChatGPT. And then the latest in big tech antitrust back right after this.
Leah Smart
Introducing the HPAI PC, your powerful AI assistant. Easily search through personal files, gain valuable insights and make smarter, more informed business decisions. Unlock the future of work today with the HP AI PC powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor. With the right tools, work doesn't have to feel like work. Learn more@hp.comaipc.
Alex Kantrowitz
And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast Friday edition, breaking down all of the week's news. Something under the radar that's worth discussing is that it looks like Shopify is going to do some embedding within ChatGPT. Now, I don't know if this is confirmed, but it was reported all over that there are some new this is from Twitter user Aaron Rubin or X user Aaron Rubin. There are new code strings in ChatGPT's public web bundle, including Buy now price and shipping fields, product offer ratings, and a Shopify checkout URL which indicate that OpenAI is wiring a native purchase flow within the assistant. So you could basically buy directly within ChatGPT as opposed to having it send you out to a website. This seems natural. I wrote to Shopify to try to get some confirmation. I did not hear back. Let's speculate. What does this mean?
Ranjan Roy
Ranjan I think it's important. We've already seen though, that Perplexity has if you're a Perplexity Pro subscriber, they have like a checkout within app shopping feature where you can go through the entire flow. That moving into ChatGPT I think is definitely important. I think the fact that Shopify seems to be trying to take a first mover advantage in this is also important from their side. I really wonder though, like, do you are people gonna shop within a chatbot? And I think the entire retail industry has been wondering this for a while as well. Like, is that experience of asking a question and being shown a few products and then maybe asking more questions about the product. Is that how people want to shop? Because we've been so conditioned to browsing and like scrolling through and clicking through products to product pages and then going back and like, that is how people shop. And it's a. It's not like such a targeted, direct thing, like if you're buying toilet paper on Amazon or something like that. It's more of an experience. So I guess the way I would think about it is, like, it's one thing to like, go to a mall and walk around and browse versus having a personal shopper that you just talk to while you're selling, sitting at your desk and they go out and buy stuff for you. But yeah, I think it's. There is definitely a large universe of transactions that will work in this way and this is going to happen. I do believe that. Just if. Is this the predominant way people shop? I don't know.
Alex Kantrowitz
I think it could be. And it's going to sound crazy, but let me give you a couple data points here. So, first of all, when you're shopping on Amazon prime, people have become conditioned to just basically take Amazon's choice and buy it. And that is because they've had enough trust and enough positive experiences within Amazon that they believe that they're gonna get the best deal on the Internet when they're on prime and they don't need to go to too many sites. I think it's become a natural behavior. Now, when you trust chatgpt, when you're. Let's say you're married to chatgpt. No, just kidding. But. But let's say you're talking to. I mean, maybe you are. You're, um. When you're talking to ChatGPT, no judgment. Do your thing, get married to ChatGPT and then go shopping with it, buy.
Ranjan Roy
Nice things with it.
Alex Kantrowitz
Yeah, because the joke is going to be on the rest of us. But when you have such a deep relationship with ChatGPT, what are you going to do? You're going to trust what it says, the same way that you trust Amazon Prime. And that trust is going to make you want to, instead of going to other websites, just buy right within ChatGPT. That is going to become a default behavior for lots of people. It does look like they're building this. And all of a sudden shopping on the web in the way that you described, where you go page to page and then make a decision after reading the reviews, it's going to seem archaic. ChatGPT is going to bring everything within the chatbot, show you the reviews, show you the different customer experiences, maybe even show you a video, show you how the product looks in your house, show you how the clothes looks on your body, show you how the watch looks on your wrist. Show you how the appliance looks in your kitchen. And you will trust it and you will buy from it. End of story. Take it to the bank.
Ranjan Roy
Good God, I'm sold. My God. Are you? Are you. Do you have a side startup going on running this? Because that was the greatest pitch I've heard on this topic. I think I'm bought in. I'm in.
Alex Kantrowitz
As you can see, everything that has been displayed on my virtual shelves comes directly from ChatGPT. No, I'm just kidding. No financial stake here. But it just does seem. It does seem to me like it's going to be a thing. And I am curious what that means for Amazon. I am going to have the head of Amazon prime on the show in a couple weeks, so maybe that's a question for him.
Ranjan Roy
That's a good topic. And then how you get into that conversation is becoming a bigger and bigger topic, I think, for all retailers. Because again, SEO or search Engine optimization was how people got their products discovered for the last 20, 25 years and became like the most mature industry. And now this changes everything. Like, how do I show up in perplexity results? How do I show up in. In ChatGPT results? My favorite part of this. And I'm going to. I'm going to throw a couple of names by you because in this space, and I'm like pretty deeply in this right now, no one has agreed on what this new world is called. We have. SEO is a classic term, but a couple of different options. GEO Generative Engine optimization, GAIO generative AI optimization, AAO AI agent optimization, SGE search generative experience, AiO AI overview optimization, and last LLMO large language model optimization. What are you going with, Alex?
Alex Kantrowitz
I'm going with. I'm angry at the fact that some have even been advanced in these discussions.
Ranjan Roy
Conversation.
Alex Kantrowitz
Let me start by striking the ones that I find hideous. Let's go, llmo. Take a hike. You're gone.
Ranjan Roy
You're gone.
Alex Kantrowitz
It sounds terrible. Sounds like a muffin. G A I O gone. Awful. Yeah, awful. AIO Sounds like an insurance company. You're gone.
Ranjan Roy
It might be. It actually might be, yeah.
Alex Kantrowitz
Are you protected from anything that might happen to your family? Try AIO AI Overview optimization. All right. That's not.
Ranjan Roy
All right. So what do you like?
Alex Kantrowitz
I'm into geo. It's like SEO. It's going to stick. It's one letter Generative engine optimization. Now, engine is a little weird because we don't really say anything like a generative engine. Like we say search engine, but it's close to SEO. People get it. It's going to be GEO or geo. And I think if what I talked about with retail becomes a thing that you shop within ChatGPT, then Geo is going to be a massive field.
Ranjan Roy
You gotta figure out your GEO strategy asap because you gotta get in those results when we're all married to ChatGPT and shopping with it for it as well. Potentially for it.
Alex Kantrowitz
Yeah, exactly. The way to get AI on your side. Buy it nice things.
Ranjan Roy
Buy it nice things. It's time to.
Alex Kantrowitz
What type of prudent strategy would you get an AI that you're in love with, just like its own set of GPUs. You'll never be tired again. You'll never feel exhausted. Showing my love for you. I'm buying you this network server rack from Nvidia.
Ranjan Roy
That's Nvidia's new market.
Alex Kantrowitz
Happy Valentine's Day. Say I love you to the robot in your life with an Nvidia server rack.
Ranjan Roy
It's like a little decked out. It's a little like the chips are just like the wiring's a little nicer. It's. Yeah, I think, I mean, what else? I don't know. That that seems to be the most relevant purchase that would make it happy.
Alex Kantrowitz
Crazier things have happened.
Ranjan Roy
Yep. Nvidia, it's your new growth strategy. You're doing pretty well, but just think about your five year plan.
Alex Kantrowitz
Jensen, I hope you're listening to this. We're serious, we're very serious about this. Okay, so speaking of chapters of love and hate, we had a very interesting moment happen here in Washington D.C. this week. So Meta, of course, is on trial in an antitrust case and who shows up but Kevin Systrom, the co founder of Instagram, who famously sold Instagram for a billion dollars to Facebook back in the day. He comes in and testifies for the prosecution and he says basically Mark was not investing in Instagram because he believed it was a threat to their growth. Their meaning Facebook's growth. And Facebook apparently had this buy or bury strategy, which is basically you buy the company or you try to destroy them. And people are saying that what they did to Instagram was they bought and buried it. And this is what Systrom says. We were by far the fastest growing team. We produced the most revenue and relative to what we should have been at the time I felt like we should have been much larger and so. Oh. He also talks about Zuckerberg's emotion. He says as the founder of Facebook, he felt a lot of emotion around which one was better, meaning Instagram or Facebook. And I think there were real human, emotional things going on there. Basically, Zuckerberg was so tied to Facebook that he hurt Instagram in service of trying to make Facebook better. Let me put out the counter argument here and get your reaction. I get you, Kevin. I hear what you're saying. But if you look at who ended up winning Instagram ended up winning Instagram is the app. Whatever Facebook did worked. It's massive. It is, I think, more used, maybe not in sheer user numbers, but certainly it's more culturally relevant than the blue app and it will outlast Facebook despite Mark Zuckerberg's emotional attachment to the latter. And so therefore I hear your testimony. However, to me it is not meaningful here. Even though Facebook may lose, it was interesting to see your perspective, but ultimately I don't think it really changes what the court is going to rule because it doesn't hold water when you look at the results. What do you think, Ron?
Ranjan Roy
John, I actually completely agree. I'm a strong believer that a lot of what Meta has done and has become is definitely from an antitrust perspective, problematic. However, this specific example, it probably started well if we separate it, it could have definitely started and there's been a lot of communication that makes it feel that it was a buy or bury type action at the time. But yeah, by 2018, Mark, like Facebook had so deeply integrated Instagram into the Facebook experience to grow it. I remember vividly like 2015ish starting to see a lot of non tech or social media forward friends all showing up suddenly because they were getting Facebook notifications or accidentally like cross posting or like they, I mean he had brought up how it was growing, yet they only had 1,000 employees compared to 35,000 employees it Facebook. But you don't need those, that many employees because it was the engine of Facebook that was driving the growth. So yeah, on this one I do not agree that that is the, that's the thing that's going to move the needle in terms of like has Facebook behaved problematically? I do love that he goes after like Zuckerberg's emotion here. I mean I'm feeling a bit cage matchy between these two Kevin and Mark on this one because like to be like you were just jealous that we were growing and you weren't. So you didn't give us resources, especially because that's not what was happening. So to still call him out on that, I kind of, I kind of want to see if we get a reaction from Zuck on if I get a threads notification on this one.
Alex Kantrowitz
You could. And also just thinking about this a little bit more deeply, you look at Facebook's marquee acquisitions, Instagram and WhatsApp, they're doing great. I mean, they're doing better than Facebook. Blue, WhatsApp and Instagram are the future of this company.
Ranjan Roy
I think at a certain point maybe I, I could be totally wrong on this, but it does feel like from a product development standpoint, from, from just like a quality of utility standpoint, I don't want to say they gave up on Blue, but like they're just kind of like, ah, whatever. People are gonna still stick around, some number of people and it'll just kind of degrade and the content and they're, they're going to stick around there. But to make beautiful products to get more interesting and better, let's work on Instagram and WhatsApp. That's what it feels like from the outside, at least.
Alex Kantrowitz
Definitely. Now I'm going to drop the however. However is however. However. So I'm in D.C. this week for Semaphore's World Economic Summit. I was able to interview the CEO of Altice usa, Dennis Matthew. It was an interesting conversation. We're going to put it up on YouTube, just about 15 minutes or so. So brief. But being here enabled me to get a chance to spend time with the Washington D.C. creatures. And the vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook. And the difference between Facebook and Google is that, I mean, Google's lost its antitrust cases, but Google knew antitrust was coming and was pretty buttoned up in terms of its disclosures and didn't basic didn't have like damning emails, you know, come out in the case, whereas Facebook had no idea that this would happen to it. And you're seeing all these emails from Zuckerberg spelling out this like, buyer bury strategy and he got caught. So even if you could say that the acquisitions haven't been like bad for competition, it's pretty rough to see all this really damning information about the way that Facebook operated come out in court. And when you're in a court, sometimes those emails can sway a judge. And Facebook could very well lose this case the same way that Google lost its cases. And Google for one, is running out of appeals. I think Google can appeal the first case to the Supreme Court and that's it. And then we see them, we go to the remedy phase. So very interesting moment for big tech. They don't have a lot of friends in D.C. despite the money they've spent. From what I understand, the administration hates Facebook. Really, really hates Facebook. And despite Zuckerberg going to see Trump, it doesn't seem like Trump is gonna back off the heat at all here. So could be a very interesting, like regulation has been back burner for us, but could we see breakups? I think the chances are higher than I would have ever imagined. Even a couple months ago.
Ranjan Roy
You don't get many bipartisan efforts or beliefs and this certainly seems to be the one. I think the interesting part from the legal perspective is related to Kevin's testimony. Is it intent? Because there's no doubt in my mind and I think the emails all show that very clearly. The goal was to remove competition from the market. That was the goal. What you do with it after, do you integrate it tightly with your existing product and make it potentially your marquee product or do you just sunset it and kill it off? That's after the fact. The goal was to remove competition, but, but the fact that they did not end up killing Instagram and now it's a huge, gigantic influential product. Is that enough to say like, yeah, I said buy and bury at the time. But look, we didn't bury it, we bought it and it's flourishing. Is that, is that enough? I, I'm not a lawyer so I will not be able to understand that.
Alex Kantrowitz
But yeah, and I think one last, one last point about this. The earth is changing beneath these companies feet. It's like this is the last battle like we spoke about last week and now some of the things that you would do in these apps, you're going to spend time talking to AIs instead, instead of your friends. And so even if it had given the company a short term competitive advantage, or even let's say the Department of Justice ends up splitting DoubleClick or Google's ad network off of Google, it's not going to make a big difference. I think what matters now is the battle of today and that battle is artificial intelligence.
Ranjan Roy
Thank you to the conscious robots and large language models that we cannot interpret for bringing competition to the market after about 12, 13 years, maybe 20, 100%.
Alex Kantrowitz
Well, thank you everybody for listening. Remember, if you want your AI to love you back, buy it some server racks. That's all they want, man. If that happens and we put the product links and some affiliate codes, you know, 5% of $100,000. Valentine's Day presents. Not bad.
Ranjan Roy
Not a bad business model.
Alex Kantrowitz
That's our future business model here.
Ranjan Roy
Yep.
Alex Kantrowitz
I think we're finding it on the fly. All right, Ranjan, great to see you. Thanks so much for coming on.
Ranjan Roy
All right, see you next week.
Alex Kantrowitz
See you next week. And thank you, everybody, for listening. We'll see you next time on big Technology Podcast.
Big Technology Podcast - Episode Summary
Title: Is Anthropic’s Claude AI Conscious?, Shopping in ChatGPT, Systrom vs. Zuck
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: Ron John Roy of Margins
Release Date: April 25, 2025
In this episode of the Big Technology Podcast, host Alex Kantrowitz delves into three major topics shaping the tech landscape: the potential consciousness of Anthropic’s Claude AI, the integration of shopping capabilities within ChatGPT, and Kevin Systrom’s testimony against Mark Zuckerberg in the ongoing FTC antitrust trial against Meta. Joining Alex is Ron John Roy of Margins, who provides insightful commentary throughout the discussion.
Overview:
The conversation kicks off with a New York Times article by Kevin Ruse questioning whether AI systems like Anthropic’s Claude might possess consciousness and thus deserve rights. Kyle Fish, an AI welfare researcher at Anthropic, posits a 15% chance that Claude is sentient.
Key Discussions:
Skepticism About AI Sentience:
Ron John Roy expresses strong doubts about the notion of AI consciousness. He argues that current AI interactions are purely pre-programmed responses without genuine feelings.
At [04:38], Roy states:
“Do you believe they're, they're evolving? They're feeling. We're in Westworld right now.”
Conflation of Intelligence and Consciousness:
Neuroscientist Anil Seth is cited to highlight the distinction between intelligence and consciousness, emphasizing that intelligence involves problem-solving and reasoning, whereas consciousness is about subjective experience. Seth warns of ethical catastrophes should conscious AI be created inadvertently.
Implications of Believing AI is Sentient:
Roy agrees with Seth's caution, suggesting that if people believe AI is sentient, it could lead to increased manipulation and ethical dilemmas.
At [07:14], Roy remarks:
“If AI becomes sentient, your capacity to be manipulated is much higher.”
AI Welfare and Ethical Programming:
The discussion turns to Anthropic’s consideration of AI welfare, including programming bots to refuse abusive interactions. Roy supports the idea, comparing it to features seen in voice assistants like Alexa.
Notable Quotes:
Alex [03:29]:
“He says, it seems to me that if you find yourself in a situation of bringing some new class of being into existence... then it seems quite prudent to at least be asking questions about whether the system might have its own kinds of experiences.”
Ron [04:43]:
“How do you get that percentage? 15%. 15%.”
Alex [16:27]:
“Consciousness is a feeling and intelligence is not feeling.”
Overview:
The episode shifts focus to model interpretability, referencing a post by Dario Amodei of Anthropic. He emphasizes the urgent need to understand AI systems’ inner workings to steer technological progress ethically and effectively.
Key Discussions:
Challenges of Understanding AI:
Amodei highlights that unlike previous technologies, current AI models operate in ways that are not fully comprehended even by their creators.
Alex quotes Amodei at [18:00]:
“Before the models reach an overwhelming level of power... they do not understand how our own AI creations work.”
Call to Action for the Tech Community:
Amodei urges companies to prioritize interpretability to avoid unforeseen negative outcomes as AI becomes more powerful. Roy concurs, noting the lack of a clear framework for understanding large language models.
Notable Quotes:
Amodei via Alex [18:00]:
“We can't stop the bus, we can steer it.”
Roy [19:15]:
“Large language models... you don't know exactly how it works.”
Overview:
Alex and Roy discuss a recent event in China where 21 humanoid robots participated in a half marathon, with only six successfully finishing the race. This serves as a springboard to explore the future of robotics and the preference for humanoid versus functional robot designs.
Key Discussions:
Performance of Humanoid Robots:
The robots exhibited various malfunctions, highlighting the current limitations of humanoid designs.
Alex [22:36]:
“The robots.... walked and crashed out... hilarious but not entirely impressive.”
Humanoid vs. Functional Robots:
Roy argues that functional designs, such as Cobot’s mover robots, are more practical for specific tasks compared to versatile but currently unreliable humanoid forms.
Roy [25:37]:
“We don't need a humanoid robot to do a lot of work and be extremely productive.”
Future of Robotics:
Despite current setbacks, both agree that humanoid robots could become integral to daily life, though Roy maintains skepticism about their necessity and practicality.
Notable Quotes:
Alex [27:41]:
“Humanoid robot can do many, many things well. It's very tough to find a robot in a different form that can do all these things.”
Roy [29:26]:
“You gotta figure out your GEO strategy asap because you gotta get in those results when we're all married to ChatGPT.”
Overview:
Tesla reported a significant decline in net income, dropping 71% in the first quarter. Concurrently, Elon Musk announced a reduction in his governmental role to refocus on Tesla, which received mixed reactions.
Key Discussions:
Financial Performance:
Tesla’s revenue fell 9%, with vehicle deliveries at their lowest since Q2 2022. The decline is attributed partly to backlash over Musk’s political involvement.
Roy [35:29]:
“Tesla is in pretty rough shape... if you're just doing a very cold financial analysis of the company, it's not going great.”
Musk’s Strategic Shift:
Musk’s decision to step back from his federal role aims to stabilize Tesla’s performance. Despite poor earnings, Musk’s announcement positively impacted Tesla’s stock due to shareholder sentiment.
Waymo’s Progress:
Roy highlights Waymo’s advancement in the autonomous vehicle space, surpassing a quarter million paid rides and expanding its fleet, contrasting with Tesla’s pending Robotaxi launch.
Notable Quotes:
Alex [37:14]:
“Tesla's story was always more than just an EV producer... It's going to do battery and charging stations and be a platform.”
Roy [39:20]:
“Waymo is here. It’s not just here. It’s normal.”
Overview:
Despite the rising popularity of AI chatbots like ChatGPT, Google reported a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, with AI overviews reaching 1.5 billion monthly users. The discussion explores how Google maintains its dominance in search revenue amidst changing search behaviors.
Key Discussions:
Revenue Growth Amid AI Competition:
Google’s search business grew by 10%, surpassing estimates despite the increasing use of AI chatbots, leaving industry observers puzzled.
Roy [41:52]:
“Search volume could be declining... we don’t know if people are searching more.”
User Behavior and Ad Saturation:
The increase in Google’s revenue might be driven by heavier advertisement placement rather than actual growth in search volume. Users report a growing number of ads with each search.
Alex [44:04]:
“Google search business grew 10%, surpassing estimates... ChatGPT is growing, but search revenue still grew 10%.”
Gemini’s User Metrics:
Google's Gemini AI reached 350 million monthly active users, signifying substantial adoption even if it trails ChatGPT’s 800 million weekly users.
SEO Evolution to GEO Optimization:
The transformation of search behavior necessitates a new approach to search engine optimization, potentially termed as Generative Engine Optimization (GEO).
Notable Quotes:
Roy [43:46]:
“It's a $90 billion business... It's the greatest business model in history.”
Alex [54:30]:
“Geo is going to be a massive field.”
Overview:
The episode explores reports indicating that Shopify might embed a native purchase flow within ChatGPT, allowing users to shop directly through the chatbot without redirecting to external websites.
Key Discussions:
Direct Shopping in ChatGPT:
The integration would streamline the shopping experience, making transactions more seamless and potentially altering traditional e-commerce interactions.
Alex [48:20]:
“You could basically buy directly within ChatGPT as opposed to having it send you out to a website.”
Impact on Retail and User Experience:
Roy discusses the potential shift from traditional browsing to conversational shopping, weighing its appeal against established browsing habits.
Roy [49:55]:
“Is that experience of asking a question and being shown a few products... is that how people want to shop?”
Future of E-Commerce:
The integration could redefine shopping behaviors, with AI-driven recommendations enhancing trust and convenience in transactions.
Notable Quotes:
Alex [51:37]:
“When you have such a deep relationship with ChatGPT... you will trust it and you will buy from it.”
Roy [52:11]:
“SEO is a classic term, but a couple of different options. GEO Generative Engine Optimization is what I’m going with.”
Overview:
Kevin Systrom, co-founder of Instagram, testified against Mark Zuckerberg in Meta’s antitrust trial, alleging that Facebook employed a “buy or bury” strategy to stifle competition. The discussion evaluates the credibility and implications of Systrom’s testimony.
Key Discussions:
Systrom’s Testimony:
Systrom claims that Zuckerberg viewed Instagram as a threat to Facebook’s growth, leading to inadequate investment and support for Instagram.
Alex [56:00]:
“He says Zuckerberg was so tied to Facebook that he hurt Instagram in service of trying to make Facebook better.”
Roy’s Counterarguments:
Roy argues that Instagram and WhatsApp have thrived post-acquisition, suggesting that the “buy or bury” strategy did not succeed in suppressing competition. He highlights Instagram’s significant growth as evidence against Systrom’s claims.
Roy [57:59]:
“By 2018, Facebook had deeply integrated Instagram into the Facebook experience to grow it.”
Implications for Meta and Big Tech:
The testimony adds complexity to Meta’s antitrust case, but Roy contends that the success of Instagram undermines the “buy or bury” narrative. He anticipates potential regulatory actions but maintains a focus on the broader AI competition.
Notable Quotes:
Roy [62:48]:
“The goal was to remove competition from the market.”
Alex [60:02]:
“Even if the Department of Justice ends up splitting DoubleClick or Google's ad network off of Google, it won't make a big difference.”
Alex concludes the episode by reflecting on the ongoing battles within Big Tech, particularly the pivotal role of artificial intelligence in shaping future competition and regulatory landscapes. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability and continued focus on AI advancements as central to the next phase of technological evolution.
Notable Quotes:
Roy [64:43]:
“Thank you to the conscious robots and large language models that we cannot interpret for bringing competition to the market.”
Alex [65:04]:
“We're finding it on the fly.”
This episode of the Big Technology Podcast offers a comprehensive exploration of some of the most pressing issues in the tech world today. From the ethical considerations surrounding AI consciousness and the practicalities of integrating shopping within chatbots, to the high-stakes antitrust battles facing major tech giants, host Alex Kantrowitz and guest Ron John Roy provide deep insights and thoughtful analysis. Their discussions underscore the rapidly evolving nature of technology and its profound implications for society, business, and regulation.
Note: For more in-depth discussions and real-time updates, listeners are encouraged to join the podcast’s Discord community through a special discounted link provided to paid subscribers.