Big Technology Podcast – October 6, 2025

Episode Title: OpenAI and AMD's Megadeal, Sam Altman and Jony Ive’s Bumpy Start. Meta vs. Apple
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: MG Siegler (Spyglass)

Overview

This episode dives into the biggest power struggles, partnerships, and strategic maneuvers reshaping the technology landscape in late 2025. Topics include OpenAI’s landmark megadeal with AMD—and the curious mechanics behind it; turbulence in Sam Altman and Jony Ive’s ambitious “AI God device” project; and the all-out race between Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, and others to build the next defining AI hardware platform. Alex and MG unpack the pace, risks, and implications for the tech ecosystem, offering on-the-ground takes from reporting and analysis.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. OpenAI & AMD’s Unusual Megadeal

[Starts ~02:00]

• Deal Structure and Rationale

  • OpenAI and AMD announce a multi-billion dollar partnership for AI data centers running on AMD processors.
  • Terms: OpenAI commits to purchasing 6 gigawatts worth of AMD chips; could receive up to 160M AMD shares (10% ownership) at $0.01/share if deployment milestones are met.
  • Notable Quote:
    • Alex: “It is not an investment in OpenAI, it is OpenAI’s commitment to buy AMD chips, but as it buys these chips, it gets ownership in AMD.” [07:29]
  • The structure is neither a traditional equity investment nor a straightforward purchase—it’s a hybrid incentivization and partnership model, possibly to counterbalance OpenAI’s existing Nvidia relationship.

• Industry Context and Motives

  • The deal happens as Nvidia and OpenAI’s $100B agreement remains only a letter of intent—a pattern seen before with other OpenAI strategic moves.
  • There’s speculation that AMD swooped in given the uncertainty around the Nvidia deal, possibly triggering strategic “jockeying.”
  • MG Siegler:
    • “Ownership is now table stakes to these deals…even when it’s a startup like OpenAI owning 10% of a public company like AMD.” [07:43]
  • Motivations include securing supply, controlling data center costs, and ensuring independence from cloud giants like Microsoft/Oracle.

• "Financial Innovation" or Ponzi Dynamics?

  • The guests express skepticism about aggressive revenue projections and the “flywheel” structure that has companies trading revenue/ownership with little cash upfront.
  • Concern over debt leveraging, slow enterprise adoption, and what might happen if growth stalls:
    • Alex: “This exuberance in the stock market is based off of infrastructure spend, not revenue. That’s a red flag to me.” [11:18]
    • MG: “If even the smallest slowdown happens… it seems like it would start a cascading effect that could bring down the entire thing.” [13:52]
  • Comparison to a “shock and awe campaign” to leverage unique historical timing and force counterparties’ hands.

2. Nvidia, Oracle, and Partner Jockeying

[~15:00]

• Unfinished Business

  • The still-incomplete Nvidia deal: only a letter of intent has been signed.
  • OpenAI is playing major chipmakers off each other; concern that “MOUs” are becoming a weapon in negotiating.
  • MG references Sam Altman’s habit of strategic ambiguity: “What is up with OpenAI’s letters of intent love now?” [15:29]
  • Sam Altman tweets Nvidia is still a top partner after AMD deal—possibly to stay in Nvidia’s good graces.

• Why Take an Ownership Stake?

  • The logic behind OpenAI wanting up to 10% of AMD is debated.
    • MG: “It’s just something else to have on the balance sheet when, if and when they go public... I’m sort of drawing at straws here.” [23:51]
  • The arrangement is partly about “aligning interests,” partly about prestige, and possibly about hedge/protection.

3. Sam Altman & Jony Ive’s AI Device Hits the Wall

[~28:00]

• Project Overview

  • Aim: a palm-sized device with screen/camera/mic/speaker, always on, able to process visual/audio cues, and serve as a “digital companion.”
  • Facing serious technical/adoption hurdles: compute limitations, personality/privacy issues, and hardware challenges.

• Compute Crunch and Team Tensions

  • Compute is repeatedly cited as the main bottleneck.
    • FT source: “OpenAI is struggling to get enough compute for ChatGPT, let alone an AI device. They need to fix that first.” [28:54]
  • Alex interprets the leaked complaints as evidence of internal friction between the OpenAI and Ive camps.
    • “If you have a sports team and they collapse…that’s when they start finger pointing. The fact that someone would go to the FT with that is, I think, fairly concerning.” [32:21]
  • MG speculates on internal jockeying for resources; some teams get prioritized, others are squeezed—echoes longstanding OpenAI grievances.

• Device Details

  • Form: roughly the size of a smartphone, no screen, always-on sensors for context, interplay between useful interjection and privacy.
  • Echoes of past and failed hardware (Friend, Limitless, Humane AI Pin, Rabbit). Success seems to hinge on nailing hardware—long Apple/Google/Amazon strengths, but new for OpenAI.

4. The Coming Platform War: All Tech Giants, One Device?

[~38:00]

• Convergence in Products

  • All major players—OpenAI, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon—are racing to deliver assistant-driven wearable/companion devices.
    • Alex: “Are all tech products and services just converging to this, you know, eventual yet to be named singular interface with assistant inside?” [42:36]
  • Hardware differentiation (e.g., glasses vs. pendant vs. smart speaker) may be less important than the assistant’s intelligence and integration.

• Design Philosophy Differences

  • Meta’s “spaghetti at the wall” experimental approach (Ray-Ban partnership, iterative design) vs. Apple’s perfectionism and brand legacy.
  • MG: “Meta has done a good job and an admirable job…of sticking with it. A lot of these newfangled devices will never work unless someone just continually pumps in the billions required to sort of be in the right place, right time.” [48:04]
  • Apple may struggle to produce hardware that people will wear on their face, regardless of design—distribution advantage can only go so far.

5. Meta v. Apple: A Cold–Now Hot–War

[~46:30]

• Apple’s moves to restrict Meta’s ad business marked a turning point, creating incentive for Meta to “control its own destiny” through hardware.
• Meta’s persistence (despite failed early products like Portal/Oculus) is contrasted with Google’s “do it and drop it” approach.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• MG Siegler (re: OpenAI/AMD deal mechanics):
  “It’s a public company selling up to 10% of their shares… and again, it’s a private company buying. It’s very, very strange.” [23:51]
• Alex Kantrowitz (on tech hype vs. reality):
  “These revenue projections are extremely aggressive, especially when you consider enterprises are moving exceptionally slow here. This is a red flag to me.” [11:18]
• MG Siegler (on Google’s position):
  “It really does feel to me…that this is basically right now as it stands a two-horse race between OpenAI and Google.” [20:05]
• Alex Kantrowitz (on device innovation):
  “Are all tech products and services just converging to this, you know, eventual yet to be named singular interface with assistant inside?” [42:36]
• MG Siegler (Meta vs. Apple):
  “Meta, to their credit, has poured almost maybe a hundred billion dollars now into their efforts… but I’m still a little bit skeptical about what scale they can get to.” [48:04]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• OpenAI–AMD Megadeal Analysis – [02:00–18:15]
• Financing Models, Risk Factors – [12:00–18:15]
• Nvidia & Partnership Maneuvering – [15:00–23:50]
• OpenAI’s Rationale for AMD Ownership – [23:35–25:23]
• Sam Altman & Ive’s Device Woes – [28:00–39:16]
• Convergence of Device Strategies – [38:20–45:06]
• Meta vs. Apple Platform Philosophy – [46:48–52:39]
• Vision Pro’s Future and Industry Lessons – [52:39–55:29]
• Final Reflections & Close – [55:29–End]

Closing Thoughts

• The landscape for AI hardware and infrastructure is unprecedented in pace, scale, and financial structure—leading to both incredible innovation and serious systemic risk.
• All major tech giants are in a race to build potentially the next mega-interface: an assistant-enabled, context-aware companion device. But the routes and philosophies behind their efforts vary widely.
• OpenAI’s power moves are reshaping the industry, but may also be creating new systemic vulnerabilities. Google is well-placed given its unique blend of profitability, hardware, models, and infrastructure.
• The future of wearable or ever-present AI assistants remains uncertain, with questions about form factor, differentiation, and consumer adoption.
• Vision Pro’s muted reception signals the limits of “big swing” hardware in a post-iPhone world—timing, ecosystem, and platform matter more than slick demos.

Further Reading and Listening

• Check out spyglass.org for MG Siegler’s deep-dive newsletter.
• Upcoming episodes tease expanded coverage on Amazon’s product philosophy and Anthropic’s next-gen model.

Essential for anyone tracking the collision of AI, chips, and hardware as the next paradigm is built—in real time, and at full speed.