Big Technology Podcast: "The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO"

Date: January 31, 2026
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: Stephen Morris, San Francisco Bureau Chief, Financial Times

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the seismic shifts in the tech and AI startup landscape, focusing on astounding new fundraises by leading labs like Anthropic and OpenAI, a breakdown of big tech earnings (Meta, Microsoft, Apple), and the implications for spending, valuations, and potential IPOs. There’s also a lively discussion about innovation in AI applications (including the viral “Claudebot” now Maltbot), Amazon’s mass layoffs, and the drama and future surrounding the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, with a possible XAI merger in the mix.

Stephen Morris brings first-hand reporting and sharp, inside insight on the high-stakes competition—and collaboration—between the AI labs and Big Tech, the jittery stock market responses, and what the coming wave of IPOs could mean for both investors and the tech industry as a whole.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Anthropic’s Explosive Fundraise and AI Startup Mania

• Anthropic Doubling Its Round:

  • Anthropic, originally targeting a $10B raise, sees extraordinary demand—raising closer to $20B at a $350B valuation.
  • “They had demand for five to six times that amount, which is a crazy amount of money.” – Stephen Morris (03:14)
  • Major backers include some surprising names: Microsoft and Nvidia, in addition to usual suspects like Google and Amazon.
  • These investments help big tech “diversify the ecosystem” so the AI market isn’t dominated by only a couple of players.

• Growing Revenue, Burning Cash:

  • Anthropic boasts rapid growth, attempting to “10x” revenue yearly (from $100M to $1B to nearly $10B/year).
  • However, profits are another story—none yet, and massive costs from compute and R&D. The window is narrowing to reach sustainability before IPO scrutiny hits.
  • “These startups don’t actually make any money at the moment… their costs have to come down.” – Stephen Morris (05:55)

• Valuations and Investor FOMO:

  • The $350B valuation still trails OpenAI’s rumored $750B–$830B, but signals Anthropic’s strength as the main alternative.
  • “People want to be associated with the name… it’s quite easy to add extra names to the list of VC and sovereign wealth fund backers.” – Stephen Morris (04:26)

• Anecdotal Signs of 'Claude Mania':

  • Time spent on Claude’s mobile app tripled in six months (from 10 to 30+ minutes average), a signal of mounting user engagement.
  • “I’ve now gone back to Claude for a lot of my work related uses and I’m seeing these numbers and I’m not surprised.” – Alex Kantrowitz (11:38)

• Barbs and Rivalries:

  • Behind the scenes (and on stages at Davos), lab leaders like Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Demis Hassabis (Google), and Sam Altman (OpenAI) are trading sharp remarks about which approaches are “scientific” vs. “VC driven," signifying fierce but sometimes playful competition.
  • “Look at what’s coming out of these companies that are run by VC and social media people—not too veiled a shot at Meta and OpenAI.” – Stephen Morris (12:57)

2. OpenAI & Massive AI Fundraising Arms Race

• OpenAI Seeking Up to $100B:

  • Latest reporting (WSJ, FT) says OpenAI is seeking $50–$100B with Amazon possibly investing $50B (in cash or AWS compute credits).
  • “The largest VC round in history was a couple billion dollars up until a few years [ago]. Now we’re looking at a $100 billion round.” – Alex Kantrowitz (15:18)
  • Strategic funding increasingly structured via cloud compute credits (Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, SoftBank all involved).

• No More Exclusivity:

  • Once-hot “exclusive” contracts are fraying as all the giants (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) hedge by investing in multiple labs.
  • “Nobody is looking for exclusive agreements anymore… Amazon is seemingly about to break with its pure backing of Anthropic.” – Stephen Morris (15:40)

• Limits to Runway:

  • There’s a finite pool of capital, even in global public markets, to absorb such huge fundraising rounds if multiple big IPOs hit together.
  • “A banker I was speaking to…was like, I actually don’t think [enough money] there is. So they can’t really all go at the same time…” – Stephen Morris (18:48)
  • Lawsuits, governance issues, and regulatory scrutiny (e.g., NYT copyright suit, Musk’s lawsuits) may also delay IPOs.

3. Hype & Real Use: ‘Claudebot’/Maltbot & the Search for the “Next Killer App”

• Viral Moment:

  • Cloudbot (renamed Maltbot after legal notice from Anthropic) is an open-source, messaging-first AI that connects across chat apps and automates tasks—suddenly all over GitHub and Discord, gaining traction by “vibe coding” rather than robust review.

  • “It shows that a developer sat over in Austria can, in a very short period of time, come up with a really interesting app that gains traction… shows that AI can be used.” – Stephen Morris (21:37)

• Memes Indicate Mood:

  • People are already joking about outsourcing relationships and trading to bots—enthusiasm mixed with gallows humor.
    • “Set up Claudebot to text my wife good morning and good night every day… It was having full on conversations without me even being involved. I haven’t talked to my wife for at least two days and she seems happier than ever.” – Alex (23:20)
  • Serious note: underlying user excitement for AI that integrates seamlessly with everyday life.

• Industrial AI Is Where the Money Is:

  • The “biggest prize” is less about viral consumer bots, more about winning lucrative, multi-year contracts with enterprises to replace old SaaS (e.g., Workday, Salesforce).
  • “The real money…is getting these big multi-year 10–$100 million contracts…That doesn’t really capture the imagination [but] if you’re just an ordinary person, you’re more interested in video generation…and Claudebot.” – Stephen Morris (22:40)

4. Big Tech Earnings: All Eyes on Spending, AI Hype, and Investor Jitters

Meta:

• Huge beats on both profit and revenue, “record sales”—Meta stock soars 10%.
• Meta to double capex to $135B this year, fueling the AI frenzy, building new Llama models, and aggressively hiring AI talent.
• Crucially, Meta demonstrates near-term ROI from AI: better ad targeting & optimization.

“Meta was crucially able to show that AI is improving their ad targeting and their ad revenue and their counterparties love this.” – Stephen Morris (33:14)

Microsoft:

• Also beat on revenue and profit, but share price dropped as Azure growth missed (by a minuscule amount).
• Markets have “no margin for error”; $100B+ in annual capex for data centers isn’t enough if growth targets aren’t met.
• Analyst alarm: 45% of future Azure contracts are “based on OpenAI.”
• “For a company the size and age of Microsoft to be that reliant on a single customer is a big red flag... the CFO spent most of the call trying to say, ‘well, maybe 45% is OpenAI, but 55% isn’t!’” – Stephen Morris (29:17)
• Microsoft is now actively diversifying its AI bets (Anthropic, Mistral) to not be dependent on OpenAI.

Market Context & Caution:

• Jumpy reactions with every quarterly result (“beat the beat!” mentality).
• Host and guest agree the market is “blindfolded,” extrapolating wildly from scant short-term data. Neither Microsoft nor Meta have shown long-term, transformative business model gains from generative AI yet.

“We’re still in the build out phase, we’re still in the picks and shovels phase. We’re not anywhere near the point where economic activity tied to AI is exceeding the amount of money being spent on infrastructure.” – Alex Kantrowitz (34:27)

Apple:

• Blockbuster quarter, iPhone revenues up 23% (biggest jump in years)—accomplished without “an AI device” or killer AI consumer app.
• Apple partners with Google’s Gemini (not OpenAI or Anthropic) to power Siri’s AI overhaul, focusing on being the “gateway device” rather than chasing data-center arms race.
• “They’re not spending the hundreds of billions… building data centers and investing in startups. They’ve just signed a deal with Google… focussing on being the main device through which people experience it.” – Stephen Morris (38:13)
• Caution: Apple’s lack of in-house AI development might be a long-term risk, but a short-term financial windfall.

5. Amazon Layoffs Reflecting Tech’s Shifts

• Amazon cutting 16,000 jobs, with management stressing this isn’t a new, ongoing rhythm—though skepticism lingers.
• Reasons are both pandemic over-hiring correction and preparing for an AI-driven era that will reduce staff needs, both white- and blue-collar.
• "Anywhere it can cut costs, in particular permanently, [Amazon] will try and do some. It just doesn’t think it’s going to need as many people in the future.” – Stephen Morris (45:19)
• Some speculation that those more adept at AI-augmented work are safer, with the company encouraging “invent and simplify,” but “invent, simplify, and leave” may sap the culture of innovation.

6. SpaceX IPO Mania (and Musk’s Potential XAI Merger)

• Rumored for June 2026, possibly tied to planetary alignments and Elon Musk’s birthday (because of course).

• Possible merger with XAI fuels speculation about “AI in space,” leveraging Starlink’s satellite constellation to build orbital data centers and train models off-world (cheaper cooling, unlimited energy).

• “He has gone out there, told investors that he wants…an IPO in June…As you said, the conjunction of Mercury, sorry, Jupiter and Venus…” – Stephen Morris (49:18)

  • Rational case: SpaceX wants capital to pioneer orbital data centers and win the AI infrastructure race.
  • Cynical case: Musk could use the merger to “make everyone whole” on XAI’s sky-high but mostly paper valuation.
    • “You put them together, everyone enjoys the upside…knowing that he’ll always have your back and make you whole.” – Stephen Morris (53:26)

• SpaceX IPO expected to raise $50B at a $1.5T valuation—could set the template (and test demand) for AI unicorn IPOs to follow.

  “If Musk can show through the SpaceX IPO that there’s huge retail demand out there…that could be a real game changer.” – Stephen Morris (54:54)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[Anthropic’s] fundraising deal…would value the company at $350 billion. So a little less than half than OpenAI. But Anthropic is clearly having a moment.” — Alex Kantrowitz [02:42]
• “These startups don’t…make any money at the moment. If they are going to go for IPOs…eventually, the whole of their balance sheet will be laid bare…” — Stephen Morris [05:55]
• “People want to be associated with the [Anthropic] name.” — Stephen Morris [04:26]
• “[Claude]’s time spent per user…has tripled in six months. And to me, what’s remarkable is that it’s the mobile app, right?” — Alex Kantrowitz [10:27]
• “It’s extraordinary…the way that the landscape has changed over the last 12 months.” — Stephen Morris on shifting AI investment patterns [08:53]
• “Nobody is looking for exclusive agreements anymore. Microsoft has broken with OpenAI. Amazon is seemingly about to break with its pure backing of Anthropic.” — Stephen Morris [15:40]
• “It shows you that the field is really wide open for…the next killer app.” — Stephen Morris on Claudebot/Maltbot [22:07]
• “A 1 percentage point miss in its Azure revenue…wipes hundreds of billions off its share price.” – Stephen Morris [28:23]
• “For a company the size and age of Microsoft to be that reliant on a single customer is a big red flag.” – Stephen Morris [30:04]
• “We’re still in the build-out phase, we’re still in the picks and shovels phase. We're not anywhere near the point where economic activity tied to AI is exceeding the amount being spent on infrastructure.” – Alex Kantrowitz [34:27]
• “Invent, simplify, and then leave…that spirit of invention and efficiency within the company could really suffer.” – Alex Kantrowitz on Amazon’s layoffs [47:08]
• “You never really want [a device] to overheat and explode.” – Alex Kantrowitz on AI wearables gone wrong [42:42]
• “He wants…to IPO in June…Jupiter and Venus will be within…one degree of each other.” – Stephen Morris on Elon Musk’s SpaceX astrology [49:18]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Anthropic’s Mega-Fundraise & AI Capital Flows – 02:00–13:30
• OpenAI’s $100B Ambition, Investor Dynamics – 13:30–19:30 (esp. 15:18–18:21)
• Killer Apps, Viral Claudebot/Maltbot – 20:25–23:30
• Market/Meme Moment on Claudebot – 23:30–24:36
• Meta/Microsoft/Big Tech Earnings Analysis – 26:49–35:38
• Apple as the “AI Gateway,” Cautious Bets – 36:06–39:56
• Amazon Layoffs: AI Ready or Just Cost Cutting? – 43:03–48:05
• SpaceX IPO & XAI Merger Possibility – 48:47–56:25

Tone & Takeaways

• The tone is fast-paced, well-informed but slightly irreverent—a clear sense that we are in a speculative, frothy, and occasionally surreal phase of the AI tech boom.
• Both host and guest repeatedly stress how little can actually be projected from today’s numbers or apps to tomorrow’s winners, and just how highly speculative (and memes-driven) both the market—and in some cases the products—are at the cutting edge.
• Despite the hype, there’s soberness about the sustainability, costs, and corporate governance challenges that will hit when these firms must open up for public market scrutiny.
• The market is hungry for a “killer app” that justifies the scale of infrastructure investment; so far, mostly “picks and shovels” are being built, and actual product-market fit is rare.
• SpaceX’s IPO could be a watershed moment for the sector—a financial and cultural event that could upend who will be able to sustain the astronomical ambitions of the AI and space race.

Guest Info:
Read more from Stephen Morris and the Financial Times at ft.com

For listeners who missed it, this episode captures the volatility, bravado, and strategic complexity of tech in 2026—where the next big thing could come from a stealth mega-round, a scrappy GitHub project, or a rocket launch programmed to the stars.