Big Technology Podcast

Episode: Tim Cook’s Final Year?, Big Tech Horse Race, Anthropic’s Profitability Push

Date: December 1, 2025
Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Guest: MG Siegler (Spyglass)

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Alex Kantrowitz and guest MG Siegler dive deep into major shifts in the Big Tech landscape, focusing on rumors around Tim Cook’s potential retirement from Apple, the volatility in Big Tech market caps amid the AI arms race, and a growing divergence between AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic—particularly how Anthropic is bucking the trend by targeting profitability.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Is Tim Cook About to Step Down as Apple CEO?

[02:24-14:23]

• Rumors Surrounding Cook’s Departure
  • Recent reporting (notably from the Financial Times) suggests intensified succession planning at Apple.
  • Jeff Williams, Apple’s COO and once presumed successor, retired recently—a move likened to pivotal departures seen before CEO handovers at companies like Amazon and Disney.
• Motivation for Leaving on a High Note
  • Apple is expected to announce one of its best quarters ever ($137B in Q4).
  • Cook, now 65, may wish to "go out on top" before Apple potentially falls behind in the next big tech wave, notably AI.
  • “You could make the case that this would be sort of the most opportune time for him to go personally…” – MG Siegler [05:36]
• Legacy & Succession
  • Cook’s legacy is compared to Steve Jobs’: Did Jobs leave Cook with a roadmap, and what roadmap would Cook leave?
  • Apple’s internal bench of potential successors is seen as full of long-tenured “Apple lifers,” with John Ternus (SVP Hardware Engineering) emerging as a likely candidate.
  • Debate over whether Apple needs a CEO from hardware or services/software backgrounds for the coming AI era.
  • “If he has set the company up for that...double down on hardware...that sets it up well for someone like John Ternus if he steps in.” – MG Siegler [14:23]
• Skepticism Around the FT Report
  • Debate on the reliability of the FT’s four-reporter byline and the dynamics of newsroom sourcing [32:15-34:42].
  • Noted that Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) pushed back on the timing of Cook’s departure.

2. Apple’s AI Strategy: Wise Caution or Missed Opportunity?

[23:13-26:55]

• Apple’s Conservative AI Spend:
  • Apple’s restraint in generative AI investment seen as both prudent (preserving capital) and risky (potentially lagging in the next tech revolution).
• The Google Partnership
  • Apple is rumored to adopt Google’s Gemini model for AI features, including an improved Siri, as part of “the best of both worlds.”
  • “You can make an argument that by sitting back and waiting, they ultimately made the right decision.” – MG Siegler [24:17]
• Productization Over Core R&D
  • The idea that controlling the product layer, even with others’ models, might trump owning the foundational models themselves.

3. Holiday Hardware: iPhone 17 & the “Air” Flop

[26:55-31:26]

• iPhone 17 Success, iPhone Air Troubles
  • The flagship 17 Pro/Pro Max models lauded for battery and camera; MG recommends upgrading if users are several generations back.
  • iPhone Air is called “a massive flop,” described as an awkward in-between device—too expensive for the mainstream, not feature-rich enough for premium buyers.
• Historical Context
  • Apple has a track record of unsuccessful side projects (e.g., iPhone 5C, iPhone Mini).

4. The Big Tech Horse Race: AI Winners, Market Cap Volatility

[38:05-54:28]

• Surges and Swaps at the Top
  • In recent months, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google have all vied for the “most valuable company” spot—reflecting the market’s wager on who wins AI.
• From Winner-Take-All to Commoditization
  • The initial “OpenAI surge” propelled Nvidia and Microsoft.
  • Recently, top AI models from OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are converging, leading to commoditization.
  • “We are now in the first moment where the state-of-the-art models are really commoditized…” – Alex Kantrowitz [42:35]
• Economic Implications
  • Commoditization may advantage companies with the broadest business models and compute advantages (i.e., Google).
• Who’s Best Positioned?
  • Siegler’s take: “It feels like the quote-unquote beast has awoken and I feel like [Google is] in the best position right now…” [51:22]
  • Meta appears “stuck fighting the last war” with LLMs; Apple faces the challenge of catching up; Amazon and Tesla, through their AI moonshots, are wild cards.
• Product Innovation: Google’s “Dynamic View” and Notebook LM
  • Google quietly launches innovative AI products and interfaces—even if their names and launches are unsexy. Siegler highlights “Dynamic View,” calling it “an incredible bit of product work…” [57:51]

5. Anthropic’s Profitability Push vs. OpenAI’s Spending Spree

[57:51-62:18]

• Diverging Lab Tactics
  • Anthropic projects profitability by 2028, in contrast with OpenAI—which forecasts over $100 billion in losses by 2030.
• Strategic Rationale
  • MG suggests Anthropic is hedging against an AI funding winter, prioritizing sustainability:
    “They might be... smartly... looking at the market as it is right now and saying: the music is starting to slow a little bit. Let's not commit to spending hundreds of billions of dollars, let's commit to spending mere tens of billions…” [58:45]
• Enterprise vs. Consumer Focus
  • Anthropic is stronger in enterprise markets, OpenAI in consumer. OpenAI may introduce ads in ChatGPT, per code leaks.
• Rationality in AI
  • Alex: “Maybe this is some rationality finally coming into the AI research lab business…” [61:08]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tim Cook’s possible exit:
  “You could make the case that this would be sort of the most opportune time for him to go personally if he's thinking about going anytime soon anyway, which you have to believe he is.” – MG Siegler [05:36]

• On Apple’s AI restraint:
  “You can make an argument that by sitting back and waiting, they ultimately made the right decision.” – MG Siegler [24:17]

• On market reaction to AI commoditization:
  “We are now in the first moment where the state of the art models are really commoditized...” – Alex Kantrowitz [42:35]

• On picking AI winners:
  “If I was actually betting…and I’ll bet on each other basically. Hedge your bet.” – MG Siegler [51:08]
  “The circular financing actually makes sense in this front.” – Alex Kantrowitz [51:19]

• On Google’s AI resurgence:
  “It feels like the quote-unquote beast has awoken and I feel like [Google is] in the best position right now to be able to capitalize on all of this stuff, quite literally.” – MG Siegler [51:22]

• On Anthropic’s play:
  “Let’s not commit to spending hundreds of billions of dollars, let’s commit to spending mere tens of billions of dollars for our future and let’s see how this shakes out…” – MG Siegler [58:45]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------|------------------| | Tim Cook’s Future at Apple | 02:24 – 14:23 | | Succession & Legacy Debates | 14:23 – 23:13 | | Apple’s AI Strategy | 23:13 – 26:55 | | iPhone 17 & Apple Hardware | 26:55 – 31:26 | | Financial Times Succession Report | 32:15 – 34:42 | | Big Tech Market Cap Volatility | 38:05 – 49:15 | | AI Commoditization Economics | 42:35 – 49:15 | | LLM Plateau & Google’s Product Push | 49:15 – 57:51 | | Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Profit vs. Burn | 57:51 – 62:18 | | Episode Wrap-up/Farewell | 62:18 – 62:54 |

Tone, Style & Closing Thoughts

The episode features an in-depth, lively, and analytical discussion. Alex and MG blend high-level business analysis with insider anecdotes and a dash of dry tech-industry humor. They don’t shy away from scrutinizing “accepted wisdom,” poking fun at industry trends (such as failed Apple hardware side projects and AI model commoditization), and are keen to temper hot takes with a sense of history and pragmatic realism.

Useful for:

• Tech and finance enthusiasts wanting a synthesized view of Apple’s C-suite dynamics, the real-time AI arms race, and how major labs are framing the future of generative AI—both as business and technological projects.
• Those contemplating Big Tech investments or seeking behind-the-scenes insights into C-level succession planning.

Skip this episode if:
You’re looking for developer-deep dives, technical AI architectures, or lightweight tech news recaps—this is a business and strategy-forward conversation.