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BiggerPockets Money Podcast
Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage or Invest? (Best Choice for FIRE)
00:31:25
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- [00:00]
A
Right now, 80% of homeowners have a mortgage rate of 6% or less. What is the best option for fire paying off your mortgage or investing that money? It's one of the most debated questions in the fire community. And honestly, the math says one thing, but your gut might be telling you something completely different. Today we're breaking down the real numbers, the psychological factors, and the scenarios where each choice makes sense. Whether you're sitting on extra cash right now or planning for the future, this episode will help you make the right decision for your situation should hello, hello, hello and welcome to the Bigger Pockets Money podcast. My name is Mindy Jensen and with me, as always, is my doesn't have a primary residence mortgage co host Scott Trent.
- [00:46]
B
Thanks Mindy. Great to be here. Good vibes today. I'm and that's a reference to the vibe coding that we've been doing to build some really cool tools. So excited for today's episode. I love this topic. When I was researching for today's episode, I was pulling up some calculators to, you know, analyze should I pay off the mortgage or should I invest? And I didn't like any of the calculators I found on the Internet. I thought that they were terrible. Some of them didn't allow you to make long investing time horizons. Some had wild assumptions or problems with it where if you paid off the mortgage early, like let's say you were saving $5,000 a month and you paid off your mortgage in, you know, year 10 or whatever it was, then it would just say that there was a wild difference in terms of the value of paying off your mortgage versus investing or vice versa because they didn't account for taking the funds after that. Investing it was crazy. Like there's no good way to make this analysis. And so today I'm excited to talk about and go over the philosophy and thoughts behind what is going to matter in the context of the decision. And then I want to talk about a wonderful, I think the best ever, maybe new calculator to analyze this decision that I built and embedded on biggerpocketsmoney.com as a full stack or at least front end developer that I've turned myself into now.
- [01:56]
A
Well, Scott, it's lovely that you have so much time on your hands. I really do appreciate that you said we when it was really just you. I am excited about this calculator because like you, there aren't any really great calculators out there to help you make this financial decision based on the numbers. There's the emotional side of it, which we'll get into in a minute. But there's also like this, this numbers component. On the surface it could seem like, oh, I've got a 6% mortgage, I believe I can make 8 to 10% of the stock market. Clearly I should invest that money instead. But it's not always so black and white. So I'm excited to introduce your amazing calculator to our audience, which can be found at bigger pockets.com/mortgage-calculator. All right, Scott, let's get into it. Should you pay off your 6% mortgage or invest it and does it matter if that mortgage is lower?
- [02:52]
B
Well, I think that that's the question. Right. And there's so many variables that go into this. Right. So let's zoom out here. If you ignore taxes and ignore all either noise there, you're going to have more wealth over a long period of time if you invest rather than pay off your mortgage. Right. A study from the Journal of Financial Planning found that if you invested from 1963 to 2019 during those periods, you would have been much better off investing rather than paying off a 6% mortgage. I think you'd have 50% more wealth over any given period of time there. But that doesn't tell the whole story. And I think that in today's environment here in 2025, with stocks 2 to 3 standard deviations above their long term ratios, the ratios of price to earnings, price to sales or whatever, I think that, that, you know, some people will want to be making the calculation or the assumptions that go forward, assumptions around returns a little differently. And I think the calculus changes. There's also tax considerations. Right. A mortgage in today's world, in many cases you're not going to be deducting the interest because most people are going to be taking the standard deduction. Although there are certain nuances where you might be better off itemizing and investment gains are taxed. So there's a tax spread here that can hide behind this, the surface analysis of investing versus paying off a mortgage being a better option for you. And I tried to capture all that in this calculator here.
- [04:11]
A
Think that's what really sets your calculator apart from the other ones that we were able to find online is that you're taking into account the taxes that you're paying on those gains. It's real easy to say, oh, 3% mortgage versus 10% returns, of course you invest, but those returns are taxed, like you said. You said something about the average includes people who stayed invested through Multiple market crashes without panicking and selling. As you said that, I looked up what are the annual returns on the stock market because historically the average average is 10%. If you got into the stock market in 2021, you saw 26.89% s P500 returns that year. But then Scott, you remember 2022, 2022 finished out negative 19.44%. So if you were in the market in 2021, you are thinking you are the best investor ever. And then 2022 hits and you're like, oh my goodness, I have to sell because I, I can't handle this market in these down 24.23%. And yes, much of that is just recapturing the 2022 losses. But then 2024 is up again 23.31%. And I'm getting these from macro trends.net and if you look at this, this is an awesome. I'm actually going to share my screen, Scott, because this is such an awesome page. Look at how frequently the stock market is up the green versus how frequently it's down, which is the red. The stock market goes up more than it goes down. But tell that to somebody who buys in 2007 and then look at 2008. Like those are some huge numbers. So anyway, I just wanted to show that we have to take a very quick ad break. But while we're away, head on over to YouTube and subscribe to our channel. That's YouTube.com@biggerpocketsmoney. AutoTrader is powered by Auto Intelligence, the hyper personalized way to buy a car. AutoTrader's tools sync with your exact budget and preferences to tailor the online car shopping experience totally to you. Budgeting lets you input your info to see listings in your price range. Search and inventory helps zero in on your dream car. You can choose from new or pre owned, the style of the car and features like engine size, color, all the way down to whether you want a trailer hitch. Go ahead and get picky. Don't worry about scrolling endlessly. AutoTrader powered by auto Intelligence only shows you vehicles based on what you can afford and what you want. And pricing shows you which listings are the best deals. So you can feel like you're winning the negotiation without negotiating. You can even choose how to close the deal online at the dealership or a little bit of both. Autotrader Powered by Auto Intelligence makes the process of buying a car less of a process. Try it today. Visit autotrader.com to buy your perfect ride.
- [06:54]
B
Support for biggerpockets money comes from public.com you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, you've maybe got some strategic option plays on the side. You might even have a little bit of crypto. But the point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. You can trade stocks, bonds, options or crypto. It's all there and you get industry leading yields on your cash with no fees or minimums. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.combpm and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.combpm paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal brokerages. Services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SAPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures support for BiggerPockets money comes from Northwest Registered Agent. Your business identity is everything that shows what your business is about from what customers see to what they don't see like operating agreements, meeting minutes and compliance paperwork. Get more for your business, more privacy, more guidance and more free resources with Northwest Registered Agent. Northwest Registered Agent has been helping small business owners and entrepreneurs launch and grow businesses for nearly 30 years. They are the largest registered agent and LLC service in the United states with over 1500 corporate guides and they have real people who know your local laws and can help you and your business every step of the way. Don't wait. Protect your privacy, build your brand and get your complete business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Visit northwestregisteredagent.com moneyfree and start building something amazing. Get more with Northwest registered agent@northwestregisteredagent.com Moneyfree welcome back. Should we get into it and talk about this calculator and going to go through what we think is the typical scenario for folks.
- [08:49]
A
Scott, why don't you show us your beautiful calculator.
- [08:51]
B
I'm so excited. Let's start off with some assumptions here, right? So let's take somebody who's bought recently and they bought a big house, right? So we got a $750,000 mortgage and I'm using a larger example specifically for context of the calculator here we've got the 6.25% interest rate which is about what you'd get if you applied for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage as a home buyer Today here on November 6, 2025, we've got a 30 year loan term and we've got a extra payment where biggerpockets money crowd we're big savers. So we're going to be thinking about, hey, we're going to be making a $2,500 payment or $30,000. I could either invest that in the stock market perhaps, or I could pay down my mortgage. We're married, filing jointly. And that's important because if we're going to take the standard deduction of 31,400 in 2026 next year, interest on this mortgage is going to be for $46,000. Right. Now note that I'm using $750,000 as a mortgage amount in the base case for a reason. You cannot deduct mortgage interest beyond that which is paid in the first $750,000 in principle. So it's this rare case, relatively rare case of people who have a large mortgage balance and a fairly large interest rate that's going to put them over the standard deduction. That could be more common if you are single, for example, and are taking that standard deduction or married and filing separately or head of household. We have all those toggles in here. And then you have to assume what your investment is going to return. And a lot of people just plug in. I'm going to assume 10% returns for the foreseeable future. And that's one option you have here. But I think a lot of people also are worried about stocks at all time highs. And that's starting to change the calculus for some of these investments. I wanted to put a field in here that said, you know what, I'm a little uncomfortable with the stock market. I think for the next 10 years the return is going to be closer to 3% in stocks and then it's going to resume its normal, you know, 10% ride or maybe, maybe something a little more conservative, maybe a 7% ride there. And this is a title that is going to be based on how you feel. Right. What you, what you believe. Right. And of course people are going to be screaming from the rooftops. It's timing the market. You know, sure, if you don't want to time the market, just assume the long term average is for everything. Right. That's, that's, that's your right from the calculation perspective. And then we also got to figure out that last that there's going to be taxes on any gains from an investment portfolio. Right. This is really complicated and I didn't build it out in a really complicated way. Right. Because you can contribute to pre tax retirement accounts, you can contribute to Roth IRAs. There's all these different variables that go in here. I just assume that all gains are going to be taxed at 20% on investment returns as the base case. But you can toggle that any way you want. 15%, 10%, whatever you think is appropriate in your situation long term. But that's going to be an important variable here between paying off the mortgage versus investing. So how am I doing, Mindy, so far? You like all this?
- [11:34]
A
I love all of this. Because you've got this investment assumptions column that really allows you to play around and see, well, what if this, what if this, what if this? Because I think the fire community is really into what if this, what if this.
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B
Let's see what happens here. In this scenario, right? In this scenario with low assumptions for stocks in the near future, the paying off the mortgage assumption is a winner over the next 30 years here.
- [12:02]
A
I am surprised.
- [12:04]
B
Yeah, that's because we're assuming low returns in stocks, right? If we assumed higher returns here, if we put like a 7 or 8% return for stocks in the first 10 years the whole way, then we're going to have a higher net worth if we invest instead of paying off the mortgage. Right. And you know, you know. So this begs your question, what do you think is going to happen here? Well, I think a good assumption is like 3, 4% for stocks over the next 10 years. I'm a little skeptical that the stock market's going to continue compounding at this 10% rate now that we're at all time high price to sales and cape ratios. You can laugh at me every year where I'm wrong on that. Anybody listening here? But that's how I feel on this. And then I think that after about 10 years it's going to settle and it's going to resume. It's compounding at a higher long term rate, maybe like 8% here. So that's what I would probably put in on this. And in this case, investing still wins under these scenarios here. But let's say you're a high income earner and you're a little bit wealthier on this front, right? So you're going to assume a little higher tax bracket, 24.55 for long term capital gains, which is state and Colorado tax rates. And let's say you're in a what's the next marginal tax rate is that 32% the next marginal tax bracket?
- [13:06]
A
Ooh, put me on the spot, Scott.
- [13:08]
B
Investing still wins.
- [13:10]
A
Okay, 24%. 32%.
- [13:13]
B
Yep. Okay, perfect. So this is Colorado's 24.55% would be the most aggressive long term assumption for capital gains that you can get under today's tax code for Colorado. Right. 4.55% long term capital gains tax rate plus the 20% federal capital gains rate. The capital gains tax on investing will almost certainly be lower than this for everybody, including people in the highest income bracket, because the first parts of those gains can be lower tax. This is a margin. This is the highest possible marginal tax break bracket. So even in this scenario, we're going to see that investing wins.
- [13:51]
A
Okay, one more and then we can go on to talk about other things. But the initial return rate, do that at 5%. So go back to 7:50. I want to see if there's a way that it, it's like, hey, it's the same. Oh, investing wins.
- [14:02]
B
Now we're going to lower the interest rate dramatically. Right. And in this case, and it's going to compound the benefits of investing. But let's, let's go into some nuances that people might not expect. Right. Let's say you have this, a higher interest rate mortgage, but your balance is smaller. Let's say it's like a $350,000 mortgage. Right. You're not getting interest that is above your standard deduction. One of the benefits, the things that, that skews the, the analysis in favor of investing rather than paying off a mortgage is for this portion of the investor community that has a high balance, 750,000 or more balance mortgage, where the interest is going to be more than the standard deduction that they're taking. Right. Because now there's a tax advantage to keeping that mortgage balance in place and paying that, that interest. Right. Mindy, let's go over a situation where I think it makes a lot of sense to pay off a mortgage early.
- [14:52]
A
What is this context of this paying off the mortgage? What are our numbers?
- [14:55]
B
A high earning family. Right. Those are, they're going to be in high marginal tax rate, the tax bracket, let's say 24% marginal tax bracket or 32% marginal tax bracket, their loan balance is $350,000. And they've got that high interest rate, that six and a quarter interest rate that's prevalent in today's world. Right. They're also a little bit, they agree with me, they're a little bit more cautious about forward Returns for stocks for the next 5, 10 years given sky high valuations. And so they're a little skittish about that and that's impacting, that's going to sway their decision making about whether they should pay off the mortgage or invest. And we'll go back to a more reasonable assumption for long term capital gains tax rates of about 20% blended. So in this case, now we're going to have paying off the mortgage being a winner here relative to investing. Right. And I want to call out the same situation. The same six and a quarter interest rate mortgage, if the balance was higher at 750,000, would be different. It would show the investing option winning. And it's because of that tax advantage, that ability to use the mortgage interest of about $46,000 in this case to file a itemized deduction, which produces a tax break. And that compounds pretty meaningfully in these first couple of years. So what's happening in this detailed breakdown here is in the first year, right, November 2025 and December 2025, we're only going to have two mortgage payments, right. And we're not going to rack up two months of interest. So we're not going to take our itemized deduction for mortgage interest in 2025. Instead, we're going to take that itemized deduction in 2026 and we're going to take that for the next, I don't know, like 15 years on this particular mortgage under today's tax code. And that's going to result in serious tax savings for this individual incremental to what the person who is aggressively paying down their mortgage early will receive. And that makes a difference over time. I think it's an important nuance to these pay off the mortgage or invest calculations. The tax angle is pretty, pretty impactful, especially in these, again, higher interest rate, higher balance mortgages.
- [17:02]
A
Okay, Scott, does it change when you have the lower interest rate? Let's say we've got somebody who is about to be financially independent and quit their job. They are two years away from their, their fire number and, and firing. They've got $350,000 left on their mortgage at a 2.5% interest rate. Oh, let's see, how many years should we have this loan term? Is that still 30 or is it.
- [17:29]
B
Like, let's have the loan start date be, you know, something, you know, from 2021. Right. So we've got a loan start date of June 6th, 2021. D Day. That's my dad's birthday too.
- [17:38]
A
Happy birthday, Mr. Trench.
- [17:39]
B
June 6th, 2021. Okay. And so, so that's our, that's our new mortgage balance here. So what's this person ought to do at this point? Their loan amount, the remaining loan amount is 350.
- [17:48]
A
Hold on. We, I want to change their investment assumptions as well. So they are married, filing jointly, 24% tax bracket. They are more aggressive with the stock market and they think we're 6% return and for the first four years and then a 9% return for the rest of them with a 20% tax on the gate. So what does this magic scenario say to do?
- [18:14]
B
So in this scenario, they're going to obviously be, well, way better off if they invest rather than prepay this mortgage. Right. The calculator is not going to provide any surprises there. And that's going to be true at every stage in this journey almost from the get go, essentially. So there's no, there's no question for this person under the, under those assumptions that they'll be better off investing.
- [18:33]
A
Right, Right. So it really comes down to what do you think is going to happen? How long do you think it's going to happen and play around again. This calculator can be found at biggerpockets money.com/mortgage-calculator and it is a. I think these are a lot of fun to play with because you can change all of these numbers just a little bit. I am in the don't pay off your mortgage because this is very similar to what my mortgage actually looks like. I believe that the stock market is going to be returning great returns for, you know, the foreseeable future. And if I'm wrong, you can email me mindy. Biggerpocketsmoney.com Scott thinks that maybe we're heading into a little bit of a squidgy market. So you can email scott@biggerpocketsmoney.com and tell him all about it as well.
- [19:24]
B
Let's look at my decision. Right. So I decided not to take a mortgage. Right. I decided I would not take a mortgage back in April 2024. April 2nd. There we go. And so I would have gotten a mortgage of probably about 5.8% at that point. And this would have been a big mortgage, 750. Right. So I would have itemized and I would have said at that point, you know, the initial, the initial return was going to, was, was pretty big. Right. So we had a pretty good year in 2024 and 2025. So probably about like 12% for one year. Right. And then I'm going to Say I'm going to be a little more conservative. I'm going to be like 5% for the next. The next 20 years. So let's see how. And I was in a high tax bracket, so let's go and update that. And I would have probably put, you know, 5,000 bucks a month towards this mortgage payment. So what did I do? Look at that. Because I'm a little bit more conservative in how I feel about the future state for the stock market. My alternatives here, my approach, I actually hadn't run that through this calculator prior to doing that down here, but yeah, it says that paying off the mortgage wins, and then I'll have about 144,000 more dollars after the. Over the next 30 years than I would have under this scenario right now. If I move that to 1.5 years, let's see. Yes. I'm still better off, right. If I increase that assumption, it's been about a year and a half since I bought that property. So I'll move that the initial return is 12% for the first year and a half on an annualized basis. So it's a fun little thing to play around with here. And you can kind of test your assumptions or maybe even go back and back test decisions that you've made if you've decided to pay off your mortgage or invest over the last couple of years.
- [20:56]
A
It's just a great tool to give people another way to run the numbers because, you know, our fire community loves to run the numbers. This is a great calculator that takes in a lot of different scenarios, not just the interest rate. I mean, one of these calculators said, I said, I've got a six and a half percent mortgage, I'm going to make 10%. They're like, great. So this is six and a half percent and this is 10%. And it didn't give me any information at all. So that's why I really like this calculator. Sky, does this calculator have a different impact on people's different ages? You and I are very different ages. So does this change with my age?
- [21:33]
B
So you're asking, Mindy, does age play into this? Right? And I think absolutely age plays into this. Right. And I think that's part of the reason why we built the calculator this way. Right. So let's, let's say that we are in our 50s, we're 50 years old, and in 15 years we're going to retire probably 1 20. Assume or be relatively conservative in our assumptions for the next couple of years, but we're still probably going to maintain we're in an accumulation phase towards our retirement portfolio. Let's say we're going to assume a 7% return for the next 15 years when we get to retirement. But when we get to retirement we're going to shift to that classic stock bond portfolio and that diversification is going to reduce our overall return. We're no longer going to expect the long term average return of stocks because we're going to have a responsible retirement portfolio, not a hyper aggressive portfolio. And at that point we can reduce our long term rate of return after that to something smaller or something more conservative with that new portfolio. That's one of the reasons why we built it this way to be able to answer that type of question. And in that case, in this particular example, with a $400,000 mortgage at 4%, you'd still be better off investing, but that would surely change if we get up to the 6.5% rate here, where paying off the mortgage early will likely benefit this person more. All right, we're going to make yet another assumption and hope that you'll stick with us after this ad break and we'll be back after this. Support for BiggerPockets money comes from public. Com. You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, you've maybe got some strategic option plays on the side. You might even have a little bit of crypto. But the point is you're engaged with your investments and public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. You can trade stocks, bonds, options or crypto. Crypto. It's all there and you get industry leading yields on your cash with no fees or minimums. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.combpm and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.combpm paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including the loss of principal brokerage's services. For us listed registered securities, options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SAPC. Complete disclosure is available at public.com disclosures. Support for BiggerPocket's money comes from Northwest Registered Agent. Your business identity is everything that shows what your business is about from what customers see to what they don't see like operating agreements, meeting minutes and compliance paperwork. Get more for your business. More privacy, more guidance and more free resources with Northwest Registered Agent. Northwest Registered Agent has been helping small business owners and entrepreneurs launch and grow businesses for nearly 30 years. They are the largest registered agent and LLC service in the United states with over 1500 corporate guides. And they have real people who know your local laws and can help you and your business every step of the way. Don't wait, protect your privacy, build your brand and get your complete business Identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Visit northwestregisteredagent.com money free and start building something amazing. Get more with Northwest registered agent@northwestregisteredagent.com moneyfree.
- [24:36]
A
Thanks for sticking with us, Scott. Thank you so much for building this calculator because I think it's really, really awesome.
- [24:43]
B
Yeah, well thank you for letting me play around with it for a little bit here. Obviously you can tell I'm having fun here. So this is just a straight vibe coding. I do have a whole downloadable like if anytime you update the calculator, there's a CSV that spits out all the outputs. And I went through many, many, many, many versions of this. But that spreadsheet that has or that, that CSV that has all those outputs will allow you to check the math for any potential errors in there. I am not able to catch them, but please consider the calculator in beta mode since I just built it today and now we're recording this call.
- [25:14]
A
Yes, and Scott's email is scott@biggerpocketsmoney.com so if you see a bug or an inconsistency, he would love to hear about it because he wants to update this and make this the most perfect thing he can for you.
- [25:26]
B
Absolutely. I don't think there's any bugs, but there could be. So you know, email me. It's got biggerpockets money.com tell me you're.
- [25:30]
A
A new programmer without telling me you're a new programmer. I don't think there's any bugs. Knock on wood.
- [25:37]
B
I think.
- [25:37]
A
Okay, Scott, we alluded to the psychological factors around paying off your mortgage. This calculator doesn't take those into account. This calculator is just numbers. It is the logical part of the equation. But there's a lot of emotions around having debt. And for some people, any debt is bad debt. It doesn't matter that it's a mortgage. It doesn't matter that it's a low interest rate. Any debt is bad debt in their mind. And for them I say, you know, know, go check out Scott's calculator anyway because it's a super cool calculator. But also if your goal is to pay off your mortgage, then pay off your mortgage. It doesn't make you a bad person to have a paid off mortgage. Scott has a paid off mortgage. I don't have a paid off mortgage. So you can just say I'm in Scott's camp or you can keep your mortgage and say I'm in Mindy's camp. But it ultimately comes down to can you sleep at night with this mortgage and if you can't, then pay it off?
- [26:32]
B
Yeah. I think the answer to whether you should pay off your mortgage or invest from a psychological perspective comes down to exactly what you just talked about, right? What's more important to you? Peace of mind and being able to cash flow your situation very easily in the near term or the opportunity cost of investing it in something else? And I will call out that having a paid off mortgage is a really wonderful psychological benefit because think about all that income you don't have to generate on a go forward basis you don't pay taxes on in order to fund your lifestyle. Right. You know, you can live the, the quality of life that somebody making $100,000 a year or $200,000 a year has to afford if they're paying rent or paying for a mortgage on a property they buy today. You can live that on a much lower income base, relatively speaking. If you don't have a paid off mortgage because you're only paying taxes, insurance, maintenance and then you know, the other lifestyle costs that you have, it's, it's a massive difference. And there's some really funky math that begins to come into play when you incorporate 4% rule withdrawals while you still have a mortgage payment. Right? Then there's some really funky stuff that's going on. So it makes it, makes it a lot cleaner, it makes it a lot easier and allows your FIRE portfolio to cover your expenses if you are going to retire using a traditional retirement withdrawal rule of thumb like a 4% rule, if your mortgage is paid off. So I think that even if this calculator tells you're going to have a lot more wealth in the long run using some kind of assumptions for the future growth of your portfolio. If you plug in 4%, you know, with that, you're, that may change the math in some of these analyses. And if you are looking to actually say does my fire portfolio produce enough harvestable liquid income for me to enjoy my lifestyle, Paying the mortgage off is going to allow you to fire faster. The math is going to be a little weird that way.
- [28:14]
A
Okay, Scott, let's go back to the age comment. Does 30 year old Scott or 27 year old Scott, who wrote the book Set for Life, should he be paying off his mortgage or should he be investing because he's so young and has so much investment growth Horizon? What would 35 year old Scott say to 27 year old Scott?
- [28:35]
B
If I was going to set this calculator for me at 23, when I bought my first property, I was a $240,000 duplex, let's say a $230,000 duplex at a 4% mortgage rate. No, I'm buying it today. So I'm going to use a six and you know, six and a quarter percent interest mortgage rate. So I've got a $400,000 mortgage on a six and a quarter interest rate to buy something reasonably equivalent, perhaps maybe a little more on the mortgage balance, maybe like 450. I'm going to get that today. Let's go today. And I'm going to make, I have 2,500 bucks that I could do something else with. Right. I'm going to be single. I'm going to be in a lower tax bracket, maybe 12% for this one. But I'm going to assume higher investment returns because I'm going to invest very aggressively. I might buy another house hack in two years, I might buy something else. So I'm going to do 10% here for the first, first five years and then I'm going to assume 8% long term because I'm going to invest very aggressively after that. And I think that that's going to change the math and make this a investment decision here. The calculator is going to spit out investing wins rather than paying off the mortgage. And I think that's the deal there. If I'm very conservative again, if I'm approaching retirement age, then I'm going to get much more conservative about what I expect from my portfolio because I'm going to responsibly move my portfolio to something that is well researched and harvestable over the long run instead of assuming these, this, this high risk, long term, high return investment strategy here that would be appropriate for a young person.
- [29:58]
A
Scott, let's go into a scenario for somebody who's closer to my age. Let's say they bought their house a long time ago. They've got a 3.25% interest rate and $300,000 left on their loan.
- [30:09]
B
Let's say that they bought this place in 2017. Sound good? Good.
- [30:12]
A
2017 sounds great.
- [30:14]
B
All right. And they got a 4% interest mortgage.
- [30:16]
A
They have a 4% rate. They have $300,000 left on their loan and again they have the $2,500 extra to throw into something every month. They are within five to ten years of retirement. They're excited about the market. So let's say an 8% return for the first five years and then a long term return of 6%.
- [30:40]
B
Sounds great. Love this. And that's, let's put them in a 24% marginal tax bracket.
- [30:44]
A
That sounds great.
- [30:45]
B
So this, this couple is going to be better off investing.
- [30:47]
A
Wow.
- [30:48]
B
They're going to be better off investing and it's because their returns are generally much higher than the interest rate on this and there's a negligible tax impact for the most part. They're not going to claim an itemized deduction. So their mortgage interest is not helping them whatsoever. But there's a nice big spread between the investments that they're going to get and the interest rate. Now if this couple had refinanced. Right. So they refinanced to, to today to six and a quarter, 6.25. Maybe pulled out some money or whatever it is then I bet you that would this might change.
- [31:15]
A
Yep.
- [31:16]
B
Paying off that mortgage becomes much more attractive under the set of assumptions. If we've got a six and a quarter interest rate on this $300,000 loan, maybe they refinance to pull out, pull out. Maybe they had their house paid off or pulled out, you know, cash out, refinance to pay for college, for example, for one of their kiddos. Then in that case, at the today's rates, under this set of assumptions, paying off the mortgage is going to win.
- [31:38]
A
Yeah. I just think this calculator is so great, Scott, and thank you so much for making it. I know I've already thanked you, but a thank you that you did it because there is no way I could ever do it. But I think it's really awesome to just play with these scenarios. So many people ask, should I pay off my mortgage or should I invest? If psychologically you're fine with either way, then run your numbers@biggerpocketsmoney.com mortgage-calculator and again.
- [32:02]
B
Again, consider this in beta here in the last part of 20. Email me with scottickerpocketsmoney.com if you see any issues. But I could not find a calculator that took in all of these things into consideration. So I would really appreciate feedback. And by the way, this thing is free. This is on our site. There's no ads on this particular page, and there's no email capture or whatever. You can use it for free. This is just a thank you to BiggerPockets Money listeners and an invitation for feedback.
- [32:28]
A
All right, Scott, again, thank you so much for your time today and your time this morning when you were making this calculator. I think this is awesome. I think we're at the end of our show.
- [32:37]
B
Show. Let's get out of here.
- [32:38]
A
All right, so that wraps up this episode of the Bigger Pockets Money podcast. He is Scott Trench. I am Eddie Jensen. Saying cheers, dears.