Tariffs Pause, Stocks Erupt, But the Volatility Could Be Far From Over

Summary

BiggerPockets Money Podcast: Tariffs Pause, Stocks Erupt, But the Volatility Could Be Far From Over

Release Date: April 10, 2025

In this bonus episode of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast, host Scott Trench teams up with guest Amberly Grant and returning co-host Mindy Jensen to navigate the turbulent waters of recent economic developments. The episode delves into the abrupt reversal of steep U.S. tariffs, the resultant stock market surge, and the broader implications for investors amidst ongoing market volatility.

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Market Turmoil and Tariff Reversal

Scott Trench opens the discussion by addressing major market shifts, highlighting his strategic decision to sell his stock positions in February due to high valuations. He underscores the unpredictability introduced by the sudden pausing of tariffs on approximately 70 countries, which led to a remarkable 7% surge in the S&P 500 within hours.

"We have just heard that Donald Trump is reversing a series of steep tariffs on about 70 countries... the market is up like 7%, several hundred points for the S&P 500 in a matter of hours."
— Scott Trench [00:55]

Scott Trench’s Analysis: The Long-Term Impact of Tariffs

Scott delves into his bearish outlook, emphasizing that high stock valuations—specifically a 38 times Shiller P/E ratio—indicate significant risks. He posits that tariffs will permanently alter global trade dynamics, compelling countries like Canada to seek new trading partnerships beyond the U.S., which could lead to increased costs and supply chain complexities.

"Tariffs... are going to permanently alter the world order and change the trajectory of how countries... think about building sustainable and durable economies."
— Scott Trench [02:01]

Amberly Grant’s Canadian Perspective

Amberly Grant provides an international viewpoint, focusing on how Canadian businesses and consumers are reacting to the tariff changes. She notes a shift in travel and trade patterns, with Canadians favoring local or alternative destinations over the U.S., reflecting a broader erosion of trust and economic collaboration.

"Canadians... are going to start looking abroad to make relationships. And even if it does cost more, Canadians are okay with that because we just don't want to be messed with."
— Amberly Grant [05:28]

Amberly also highlights the social and economic cohesion in Canada, suggesting that the damage to U.S.-Canada relations will have long-lasting effects, particularly among Millennials who value economic stability and international partnerships.

Investment Strategies Amid Volatility

The conversation shifts to personal investment strategies in light of the current market instability. Amberly emphasizes maintaining a disciplined approach through dollar-cost averaging, continuing to invest steadily despite market fluctuations, and preserving liquidity with a larger emergency fund.

"I do not have a plan to get back in. So therefore, I will not sell... I am not gonna make any moves. I am sitting still."
— Amberly Grant [06:29]

In contrast, Scott discusses his pivot towards real estate as a hedge against inflation and increased cash holdings, expressing discomfort with the volatile stock market. He shares that this is the first time he's actively adjusting his portfolio based on current events, moving away from his usual "set it and forget it" index fund approach.

"I'm not moving back into the market right now... I'm playing a safer game."
— Scott Trench [07:25]

Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rates

Scott delves into the complexities of Federal Reserve policies and their impact on interest rates. He analyzes the inverted yield curve as a signal of potential rate cuts and expresses concern over the long-term implications of reduced foreign investment in U.S. debt, which could destabilize bond portfolios.

"A bond portfolio could be very, very volatile over the next year in ways that I can't predict."
— Scott Trench [17:38]

Historical Context and Emotional Investment Decisions

Mindy Jensen brings a historical perspective, referencing the 2008 financial crisis to illustrate the challenges of active trading during economic downturns. She emphasizes the importance of sticking to established investment plans and avoiding panic-driven decisions, advising listeners to educate themselves and remain resilient.

"The stock market is going to go down again. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, maybe not next year, but it will go down."
— Mindy Jensen [29:47]

Mindy encourages listeners to catalog their feelings about market fluctuations and make informed decisions based on their financial goals rather than reacting to short-term volatility.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Scott and Mindy reflect on their investment philosophies and the importance of tailored strategies based on individual circumstances. Scott reiterates his cautious stance, prioritizing wealth preservation over aggressive gains, while Mindy underscores the value of disciplined investing and emotional stability. They invite listeners to engage with the BiggerPockets community for further discussions and guest recommendations to explore diverse investment perspectives.

"What matters is how things go over years and how wealth is built over years and decades."
— Scott Trench [38:07]

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Key Takeaways:

1. Market Volatility: Sudden policy changes, such as the reversal of tariffs, can lead to significant short-term market movements but may signal deeper, long-term uncertainties.
2. Global Trade Dynamics: Tariff adjustments are likely to reshape international trade relationships, with countries like Canada seeking greater economic independence.
3. Investment Strategies: Diversifying investment portfolios—through real estate, cash holdings, and disciplined stock investing—can mitigate risks associated with market instability.
4. Federal Reserve Influence: Interest rate policies remain unpredictable amid economic turmoil, affecting bond portfolios and overall investment strategies.
5. Emotional Resilience: Maintaining an informed, disciplined approach to investing helps navigate the emotional challenges posed by market fluctuations.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current economic challenges, offering valuable insights for investors seeking to understand and respond to ongoing market volatility.

Transcript

[Scott Trench]

Welcome to the BiggerPockets Money Podcast Bonus episode. We are rolling off the cuff on this recording. My first time alongside Amberlee. Welcome to the BiggerPockets Money podcast here. As many folks know, I am on paternity leave. We welcomed our infant daughter on March 27th. She and mom are very healthy. Baby is beautiful and wonderful and we're thrilled here, but the markets are going absolutely haywire and so I'm coming back for today. We also have limited time, so we've invited Mindy. If she hops on halfway through, that's what we're doing. We are rolling and reacting to live events right now, best we can. Amberly, so excited to be discussing this with you today and thank you so much for co hosting here on the BiggerPockets Money podcast while I'm out. I really appreciate it.

[Amberly Grant]

I'm happy to be here. I think I've perfected your voice. I've lowered my voice a couple octaves and I think I've got you perfect.

[Scott Trench]

Yeah. And the mustache, right?

[Amberly Grant]

Well, duh. Yeah. Just let that grow up for a couple days.

[Scott Trench]

Well, anyways, while we're back here is the market turmoil. I mean, this has been a wild ride the last few weeks. I think a lot of folks know that I sold out of my position in February. I could never have predicted tariffs and all the drama that would unfold in there. I just thought stocks were priced high relative to earnings at that point in time and thought there were a lot of risks to the system. But now we've got serious whiplash in the markets as we record this today on April 9th at about noon mountain time, 2 Eastern. We have just heard that Donald Trump is reversing a series of steep tariffs on about 70 countries who have come to the table to negotiate in some sense. And the markets are whipsawing. The market is up like 7%, several hundred points for the S&P 500 in a matter of hours, matter of minutes following that announcement. So we've got a lot of volatility and a lot of craziness going on, and we wanted to kind of react to the situation here. So, Amberly, what do you think?

[Mindy Jensen]

Should.

[Scott Trench]

Should I go first or do you want to. Do you want to give your take on the situation first?

[Amberly Grant]

I'd love for you to go first because I have a perspective that I'm going to share after you from a more international perspective.

[Scott Trench]

So look, when I. When I think about the tariffs and what's going on here, again, we start. My base case was stocks are expensive Relative to earnings, a lot has to go right for those projections to be met. When you're trading at a 38 times Shiller PE ratio, that's the first thing on this. Tariffs are going to increase the costs for companies to bring in goods and services in a very convoluted way that I think is going to be very hard to predict because of the phenomena of globalization that's been going on for decades. I believe tariffs, the threat of tariffs, regardless of how many are rolled back and how things proceed from here, are going to permanently alter the world order and change the trajectory of how countries and nations around this, around the world think about building sustainable and durable economies. So, for example, Amberly, I'll be very surprised if this is not the case. But I believe that Canada has no choice. Now you're a Canadian here, you live in Canada. I believe that Canada has no choice but to begin the process. Regardless of how things play out in the next few weeks or next few months, you must think about new trading partnerships with Europe, new trade lines to Asia, new ways to go directly to Mexico or other parts of South America and circumvent the U.S. even if trade resumes with the U.S. it will be with a caution, I think that will be inherent in there. And there will be a. I might want to go pretty far out of my way and pay a lot more to go around those guys because I'm not sure I can depend on them. And that system shock is so severe to your economy. So that's kind of my base case here. And I think that still after the recent drop and the put back today of 7 or 8% in the S&P 500 stocks are still very highly priced relative to earnings. And you still got a lot of risks that are running through the system that I think keep keeps me a little bearish on there. And I'm still happy with to be out of the market and have sold my position in February. That's my initial take. What do you think?

[Amberly Grant]

Yeah, the volatility I don't think is going to end here just because we've removed the tariffs for certain countries. We still have a president in charge who is a bit different in regards to the way that he's doing things and we can't count on him. And from a Canadian perspective, I live in the United States. I was just in Canada for six weeks. I am very in touch with, you know, what's going on in Canada and my friends and what they're saying. Canadians have already moved away from the United States not only from their vacations. I know three people who have canceled their vacations, and it's all over the forums. They're not coming to the United States because they're actually going to vacation in Canada or abroad. So we've already started taking a hit in regards to travel and tourism here in the United States from Canadians and I'm sure other countries as well, since they're not sure what's going on. The other thing is the United States has upset a social capitalist country. Canada and others like us are very good at coming together when we need to, because we are not an individualistic society. So Canadians, and PM Carney has already said this, that we are going to start moving away from the United States and we are going to start looking abroad to make relationships. And even if it does cost more, Canadians are okay with that because we just don't want to be messed with. And so from that perspective, from an international perspective, the damage is done. The relationships have been, I don't want to say severed, but there is a hole in the relationships with the United States, and we're going to see that play out over the next five, 10 years. And specifically with my generation of millennials, we will not forget when the United States attempted to alienate us and isolate us from their economy.

[Scott Trench]

I think it's a permanent trajectory shift. And it sounds like that is what you are feeling as an international, what the people you know are feeling there. This will not be everybody, right? And half of America will feel the same way that you do, and the other half will feel the complete opposite, right? So it's all about what you believe in terms of how the future will play out. But I think the base case that's reasonable here is, sure, some countries may make deals in the short term, right? If you own several hundred billion dollars or a $trillion of US national debt, you may not in the near term, voice certain views too publicly in certain areas. But you got to believe that, that countries like Japan, like Canada, like Mexico are going to begin the long, hard work of saying, well, we're never going to put ourselves in a position that has this low leverage ever again in our, in our country's history. That's a new change. And I think that's, that's an important dynamic here. How does that impact your stock position and how comfortable you are with an index fund portfolio?

[Amberly Grant]

This is a question I've been mulling over for the past week, and I'm sure so many people have. I'm staying the course. The. For me personally, my Investment policy statement says to continue dollar cost averaging into the market as I get my paychecks and as I go. So that is just going to be continuing my plan. I have a larger emergency fund than I normally would have in this moment because I think cash is king at this time and I don't know what's going on. So if I do need to access any funds, I want to make sure that they are already in some sort of high yield savings account. I do have friends who have sold off their portfolio in the past week. I always like to ask the question, when are you getting back in? And I don't have a plan to get back in. So therefore, I will not sell. And I also have nothing to do with that money. So I'm not going to buy a rental property or something like that. So this isn't the time for me to make any moves. I am sitting still. I'm not going to start putting large sums into the market. Instead, I'm just going to continue with the plan that I've got right now. And that's what my investor policy statement and that's what I love to have in these times of turmoil.

[Scott Trench]

Mindy, welcome back to the BiggerPockets Money podcast. We were just talking, we were doing a bonus episode to discuss all of the crazy events of the past few weeks here. While I'm temporarily back from. From parental leave and all those types of things and getting a perspective from Amberly. I think you came in halfway through it. So how you doing? Life good?

[Mindy Jensen]

Life is great. I love what Amberly said. That's her personal investment strategy based on her position in the market. Thinking about it, it's coming from a place of education. She's not just making this up and listening to somebody that she saw online. She put a lot of thought into this. I am in a different place in my life than she is. I just put a very large sum of money into the market today because a loan came due earlier this week.

[Scott Trench]

Did you do it before or after the market jumped 8%?

[Mindy Jensen]

Well, that. I'm. I can't remember exactly when it put it. I think it was this morning.

[Scott Trench]

That's awesome. Well, congrats.

[Mindy Jensen]

But I didn't. I wasn't trying to time the market. The market timed itself very nicely for me. I did lose a lot last week. Let's be clear. Clear. Because I lost a lot on paper. I didn't lose anything in real life because I didn't sell anything. So I want. I want to make that point rather clear, especially for Our newer listeners who are newer to investing, you didn't lose any money. If your stock portfolio three weeks ago was worth a hundred thousand dollars and it's only worth what is it? It's down 20,000. So it's only worth $80,000 right now. Unless you sell, you're not losing money. This is a normal part of the market. It goes up, it goes down. It goes up more frequently than it goes down. Um, I was reviewing what Michael Kitces said back on episode 120. I encourage everybody listening to go back and listen to that episode again. Why such a long ago episode? Because we interviewed him right as the market started crashing for Covid. And I asked him specifically, should you dollar cost average or lump sum? And we were talking about, like, if you just happen to have a pile of money that you were waiting to put in the stock market. And he said, put it in as a lump sum. Now, Amberly is dollar cost averaging when she gets her paychecks. Amberly, I'm imagining that you have X amount that goes into the market every paycheck. That's the true use of dollar cost averaging. Lump sum investing is for, like me specifically in this case, I had a loan that was paid back to me and I threw it all in the stock market. That's what lumps up investing is for.

[Amberly Grant]

Most people shouldn't have a bunch of cash on the side because then you are are not making use of it right now. Right. So that's good.

[Mindy Jensen]

We need to take a quick break to hear from our show sponsors, but we'll be right back with more after this.

[Amberly Grant]

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[Scott Trench]

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[Amberly Grant]

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[Scott Trench]

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[Mindy Jensen]

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[Mindy Jensen]

Thanks for sticking with us.

[Scott Trench]

Obviously I'm of a different opinion here and I've been, you know, of that opinion since the beginning of the year on this front and it again it is not necessarily because of tariffs. I would not have been able to sit here in February and say tariffs. Again the reason I'm reason I'm scared of the stock market. I just did not believe that the risk reward profile for stocks at a 38 times cape ratio or Shiller price to earnings ratio inflation adjusted earnings profile for stocks was was reasonable at that point in time and I wanted to diversify and lock in my wealth. I also perceive stocks as being much more expensive relative to earnings than I perceive real estate and so I reallocated a big chunk of that money to real estate and I continue to hold a very large short term cash position here that I plan to inject into real estate. That might change if the market goes to something very low. At that point I would potentially reassess whether stocks made more sense than real estate. But I am really, you know, taking into account current events and market conditions into my portfolio and this is the first time I've ever done that in my life. The entirety of My investing career up, up through early Q1, 2025 was set it and forget it index fund investing and the occasional rental property purchase in there. So this is a big change for me. You know, I don't know if I would be making that change right now if I hadn't at the beginning of the year. But I'm certainly not moving back in to the market right now. My plan is still base case continue buying rental rental properties one by the end of the year, another in 2026.

[Amberly Grant]

Okay, so I've heard of the perspective that maybe Trump is forcing the hand of the Feds to lower interest rates and therefore refinance the US debt. So all of this volatility and insane communication may actually have a positive outcome for the U.S. what do you guys think on that?

[Scott Trench]

Amberly, let me ask you this. Are you personally more or less likely after the recent events to lend the US government money for the next 10 to 20 to 30 years?

[Amberly Grant]

As a Canadian, absolutely less likely.

[Scott Trench]

So that's my best argument against this policy driving interest rates lower. The best argument for this policy driving interest rates lower is Federal Reserve by trump card of the Federal Reserve. It'll just, it'll just buy everything back and put it on their balance sheet in there. So I think, as always, interest rates are really hard to forecast in here to get complex. If you want to put me on the spot and guess because I can't help myself on these things, the yield curve is inverted. Right. Let me just pull up, let me pull up a chart here. Okay, so what we're seeing when we look at the yield curve and we're seeing some wacky stuff going on in recent days here, but we're seeing a yield curve where the, the long term debt is cheaper than short term debt or about the same price. Right. And this is fluctuating wildly with each passing day in a way that we don't usually see here. But typically if we go back to a more stable time, right, like 2018. Right. Or pick another time like I don't want to get stable and get into politics or whatever, but pick another time like 2018, when there was not this level of disruption happening in markets. The short term treasury yield was 1.5% and the 10 year yield, which is a key number for most real estate investors in many parts of the market, was at 2.77. Right. That's 125 basis point increase. When the yield curve is inverted like it is today, there's, it's basically a bet that the Fed is going to lower rates and not just a couple of times. It's a bet today or as a 4.8 yesterday that the Fed will lower rates 5 times to leave the 10 year where it is. Right. As of a couple of days ago when it was trading at 4, it's a bet that it will lower, lower rates seven times. Right. So that can happen. And the most direct way that the markets would believe that and actually reset this further is if Donald Trump says next year, in 2026, when Powell's 10 year goes over, the current Fed chairs 10 year goes over. I'm going to point, I'm going to point somebody who's going to lower rates no matter what. Right. That would have the impact of lowering rates. So this is impossible to predict. Right. Because it's choices a single individual makes can totally change the outcome of this plot. It's a very unusual situation here. So you could see these things going either way. But I think because you can see things going either way, the greater risk is that people like you or countries like Canada say, you know what, I'm just not going to buy a lot of US debt, I'll take a lower yield somewhere else from this. And I think that's the major issue, the risk that I perceive. So that actually makes me a little worried about my bond portfolio on that front. I think a bond portfolio could be very, very volatile over the next year in ways that I can't predict. What do you think?

[Amberly Grant]

Yep. And when we're looking at a bond portfolio, that is actually what we're putting into our portfolio to even out those big rides. And so like what are we going to do here? Where do we go next to invest so that we can feel comfortable and secure in our investments for a long period of time? Even though stocks were never fully secure, we did have some sort of past performance as you know, it's something to look at. It doesn't indicate future performance, but it is something that we can see. So where are you guys going?

[Scott Trench]

I'm in cash and realist paid off real estate. I'm like, look, and by the way, I'm not even sure this is good for real estate. Right. Like, I don't, I don't think this, like, I think there's so many up the ears things there. If you say that prices are going to go up even, even less severely than when we were tariffing everybody in the world for this, we're just tariffing a portion of the world, like China for example, in a pretty extreme way. You know, if you say that prices are going to go up. Well, consumers now have less to spend on housing. They must still buy some of those things. So that could drive demand for rent down. I'm not so sure that the timing. Yes, tariffs should bring back jobs to the United States over the long term. Right. I think, I think some people are being a political moderate, although people won't call me a moderate in some, no matter what. Right. When I was talking about the Biden administration and the second Covid response and how that was going to drive inflation, oh, that's a huge problem. And you talk about tariffs and you say, here's some problems and realities that you got to reflect there. The other side's going to get pissed off. But you have to think about these things from a logical perspective. And tariffs should absolutely bring back manufacturing and jobs to the United States. The issue will be timing, how long will that take? If there's a year or two where that doesn't time out very well. For example, because parts can't get delivered to automobile manufacturing plants in Michigan, workers get laid off in the meantime. So that creates a problem in the short term as well for demand for rent. Right. The tariffs will do nothing for supply. In the near term, it will absolutely reduce or increase the cost to construct real estate over a long period of time. But in the near term, it has nothing to do. Like all the stuff that's coming online this year was started two or three years ago. So all that's still going to hit. So you have no different impact in supply. Pretty reasonable reason to believe that there will be near term headwinds in demand and total uncertainty, anybody's guess, on interest rates in a way that I haven't seen before. I don't really love that from a real estate perspective either. But I like paid off real estate as an inflation hedge better than I like the stock market. And if two years go by and the stock market soars and I miss out on those gains, I can live with that because I'm getting a reasonable yield in my cash position and I'm getting what I believe to be an inflation adjusted, somewhat close to inflation adjusted income stream.

[Amberly Grant]

On real estate, I disagree with the idea that manufacturing is coming back to the United States. I see that meme online where like you've got workers putting in screws on iPhones. That's not going to happen. And if I'm a company and I run businesses, if I'm a company, I am not going to create an entirely new factory and then make workers in it. I'm going to use AI, I'm going to use robots, I'm going to use other things. So therefore I'm going to need more knowledge based workers for my factory, not necessarily physical workers. So the amount of people who will benefit from that are going to be very little in comparison to other jobs that are going to be out there. So I just don't see manufacturing coming back and if it does, I don't see it benefiting the average individual.

[Scott Trench]

I would tend to disagree with you a little bit on that front because I do. I do think that if that's the stated goal and the policies all reflect that, that we will see some of that manufacturing capacity come back to the United States and it will require a different skill set. I think that the another argument, an argument that I would put against that coming back in the way one predicts is this is for this administration. So depending on how things go, if you're like if you're a CEO and you're going to make a $10 billion investment in PPE to build a factory, are you going to fully commit to that based on the current administration? Are you going to kind of wait and see if the next administration is going to support that same set of policies? So I think that's a major risk to actually realizing some of those benefits that that that are called for there.

[Mindy Jensen]

Well, Scott, where are these new manufacturing jobs going to be performed? Like what factories are there in America that they can just come over and set up shop and instantly start working? I think that's the big flaw in the plan. America has building codes. So if you're going to build a whole new factory, that's going to take way longer than the four years that this current administration is going to be in office. And if you retrofit factories, maybe you get in at the tail end. What companies are going to take this risk when American workers are not known for jumping on these factory jobs?

[Amberly Grant]

We have to take one final ad break and we will be right back.

[Mindy Jensen]

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[Scott Trench]

No, it's not.

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[Amberly Grant]

Welcome back to the show.

[Scott Trench]

I think these are all questions that the market is asking, right? So when we look at like people are going to say, oh, look, today, April 9th is the biggest gain in five years or even longer from the market perspective. But if you look back over the last five days, it's down over the last five days. So the market went down like 10% or something huge in those, in those few days, the S&P 500 right over this. And then it popped up almost 9% as of what, 12:30pm Mountain Time, 2:30pm Eastern Time, April 9. So who knows where that's going to end up here. But it's not like, it's not like this is some hero ball where the market's all back at this point. It could change, that could change and it could, could surge to new highs. But again, it comes back to me of like, how does this impact what I'm doing with my portfolio and what I'm doing with My portfolio, essentially from February and remains unchanged today is saying, you know what? Forget everything else. Stocks are really expensive relative to earnings, US Stocks specifically. I have small portion of my wealth in international index funds. I've got cash, I've got real estate, and I've got a bond portfolio. I'm worried about volatility in my bond portfolio, and that's why the bulk of my position right now is in cash and real estate. And I'm fine with that. If the next two years prove me wrong, I'll take less return and I won't get rich. If the next two years prove me right that there is risk in the stock market, regardless of whether it's the tariffs or some rollback or whatever, I'm going to sleep well with a conservative portfolio. But I'm not in it right now to get rich. I don't know how to play this. I don't know how to. How to do this situation. I'm not some superstar, active, active trader. I just. I'm uncomfortable with the way things are moving out here, and I'm playing a safer game.

[Mindy Jensen]

Personally, for me, I am not as uncomfortable as you. I will point out that I have been through this before, several times. And I will say, where were you Investment wise in 2008?

[Scott Trench]

In 2008, I was captain of the high school lacrosse team, and I actually was a state runner up in my wrestling in wrestling that year. So, you know, I was really focused on those things. That was my investment portfolio, 100% of my. I was a very active investor in training my body to attempt to win high school sports.

[Mindy Jensen]

Okay, so $0 in the stock market. Is that fair to. To summarize, I don't remember.

[Scott Trench]

Maybe I had, like, a small account set up for something in a stock or two.

[Mindy Jensen]

Yeah. So that was a scary time. And you keep watching the housing market imploding and the stock market imploding, and you're like, oh, my goodness, what do I do? We continue to put money into the stock market, and we put money here, and we put money here, and we put money here, and we put money here, and we put money here, and we put money here. We put money here. For those of you listening, I am moving my hand down and then back up again. We put money in. Much like Amberly when we had it in a paycheck, we took a specific portion out of that and put it into the stock market. It didn't matter how much the stock market was up or down from the day before or the week before or the month. Before, our investment plan was to continue to put money in. So we did. And that is what we are continuing to do now even though the stock market is volatile.

[Scott Trench]

I think that Mindy's got a great reason, rational take. I think it was very helpful to have Amberly's perspective as an international investor from Canada. I think it would be very helpful for us to have potentially deeply conservative and aggressive investor who believes that corporate earnings are likely to thrive in the near future as a counterpoint to some of those things we discussed today. So if anybody has a recommendation for a guest on that front, I'd be very grateful. I think that would be very helpful and hone some thinking. I've seen some research around the Internet, but I'm not really able to get a coherent thesis for why corporate earnings are likely to grow over the next 12 to 24 months yet. So I'd love the take from somebody who's got that on there. And that would be a guest request that we'll put out there to the BiggerPockets money community and I'll come back and do that one too.

[Mindy Jensen]

Yep. And you can email Scott at biggerpockets.com or [e-mail] or our producer [e-mail] if you have that guest. Scott, one more thing that I wanted to say is you mentioned that Jerome Powell only has one year left on his tenure. I will look into my crystal ball and say I don't think he's going to be renewed. Even though the current administration installed him during their first administration, they are no longer going to have him going forward. This is just a guess, but it's a pretty good guess. He increased rates to bring inflation down. What is going to happen when this new person comes in, reduces rates? Inflation is just going to go through the roof. We're already going to have high inflation if we have these tariffs, reciprocal tariffs. I just think that that is a. I would love, I would love to have lower rates. I am about to build a house. I would love to get a mortgage on this house at 3%, but I'm not going to be able to because I, I truly don't believe that interest rates will start to drop. I think it will be a huge economic disaster if they do.

[Scott Trench]

Well, you got a couple of problems with that. Right. So this is why it's so hard. This is why it's so hard right now. Right. Let's talk about inflation real quick. Right. So tariffs, all else equal, should be inflationary. But right now we are seeing panic in the markets. That's why the market is behaving so erratically and so volatile at all times. I believe we're going to see Americans be very conservative or a good portion of Americans be very conservative in the near term. So if the price of something from a tariff perspective goes way up but fewer people are buying it, you may not see inflation hit in the ways that you expect it to see in the coming months from a reporting perspective. Right. There's like, this is so hard. Right? Does it make sense you could be seeing a deflationary setting because people are pulling back even as that's happening. OPEC is producing a tremendous amount of oil and flooding the market. Crude oil is down pretty dramatically. Right. Some people worry that that's in an attempt to force American producers to stop producing, for example. Right. That's a deflation. That's deflationary. So there's so many puts and takes in all of this. Unemployment is another one, right? Unemployment super hard. Last month the employment job jobs report showed 100,000 more jobs added than what was forecast. Right. I've long held the opinion that the unemployment report is going to be bonk for the next couple of years. I said this for years because there's 11 to 15 million illegal immigrants in this country, depending on which source you want to cite. And There are about 30 million gig workers at bigger pockets. We transitioned some gig workers out and added some employees. That is adding to the employment set. But we might be spending less in that area, for example. Right. Like those changes are real and can have big impacts across the economy. So I think that when people go back to work, that may not be what it meant a few years ago from there. So these are going to be hard to read. And if employment doesn't drop, J. PAL can raise interest rates in the near term to combat inflation. Right. I mean, it's just. It's going to be so hard to figure this all out. And again, I come back to, okay, if stocks were priced very cheaply, like less than 15 times price to earnings, I'd be a huge bull on it because change is good in the context of what is a negative overall sentiment. But when they're expensive and change is happening, I don't see how net. Net that can be a very positive thing for valuations of companies at the higher end from a multiple perspective. And that is the core framing of the thesis. I don't know what's going to happen, but I am sure glad to have, you know, 30 in stocks, 30% stocks 30% cash, 30% real estate, 10% bonds. Right for that. And I like that portfolio. I don't know what's going to happen, but I think I'm reasonably couching a lot of these risks. I ain't going to get rich through whatever is going to happen next with that portfolio, but I might not do too bad either.

[Mindy Jensen]

Just want to make another underline on my statement. You are deciding this based on looking at the market, doing some research, doing some, some studying, educating yourself. This isn't just, oh, the stock market is falling, therefore I'm going to pull money out and go in a different direction. So I want to encourage people not to make rash decisions right now. Consult your investment plan if you have it. Start making one. Catalog your feelings about this. Watching the stock market go down is not fun. I am not trying to sit here and be like, woohoo, keep going down. I want it to go back up. I don't ever want it to go down again, but it will. I don't have a crystal ball, but I can say with 100% certainty the stock market is going to go down again. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, maybe not next year, but it will go down. So educate yourself on what you want to have happen in your financial life, because you don't have any control over if the stock market goes up or down. So how do you feel right now? Write down how it feels to watch the market decrease and when that really gives you the heebie jeebies and you don't want to be involved in that anymore. Perhaps when the market calms back down again, it's time to look at a bond portfolio, a portion of your portfolio in bonds, not a whole bond portfolio. It's time to look into real estate like Scott's doing. It's time to look into other things, like, I mean, even gold. I'm not a big fan of gold. But if that's where you feel would be a safer investment, then, you know, make your decision not based on panic, but based on information, education, and a calm scenario in which to make these decisions.

[Scott Trench]

I think it's a hard, hard thing. And I think you got to be honest with yourself about your feelings. Right? I feel fear, uncertainty and doubt. And the Internet loves to weaponize fud, right? Especially the bitcoin people. Right? That's what I feel. And I cannot handle the heat in the kitchen right now in the market. And that's right for me. And you can. And that's right for you. And I think that's, that's that's what it comes down to. But again, shout out. We would love to get somebody who has the bowl case for corporate earnings in the context of 2025 and 2026 here on Bigger Pockets Money. I would love to do that one personally, even while I'm out here. And we'll make time and find a great show for that. So please, please send us that some, some Suggestions, Scott, @BiggerPockets.com if you got them for that.

[Mindy Jensen]

All right, Scotch, we get out of here.

[Scott Trench]

Let's do it.

[Mindy Jensen]

All right, that wraps up this kind of out of the box, spur of the moment bonus episode that we did record super fast. We're recording it today and it's going to release tomorrow. But we wanted to talk about this breaking news. So thank you so much to Amberly Grant for popping in, giving us the international perspective. Thank you to Scott for giving us the informed perspective. And I am Mindy Jensen, giving you my perspective, too.

[Scott Trench]

Yeah, you can make fun of my uninformed perspective next year when I'm dead wrong about all this stuff. No one could be right about it. So, yeah, I wouldn't say informed. How about a bit of obsessing over it and probably wrong in 20 different ways? And I'm sure I'll get informed about why those are wrong very specifically and immediately in the YouTube comments. So I'll be checking those and looking forward to that.

[Mindy Jensen]

Well, Scott, it is my experience that people don't come in and tell you you're wrong immediately. They wait until after the stock market goes back up, in three months or 12 months or whenever to say, hey, what are you thinking about it now? Well, I wrote it out so, you know, make your comments more current or don't make comments at all. That's my thought now.

[Scott Trench]

We'll see. Look, what matters is how things go over years and how wealth is built over years and decades. And this is the way I'm approaching it for my situation. I bet you a lot of folks will do way better.

[Mindy Jensen]

Well, I'm not saying yes.

[Scott Trench]

No. Yes, you can say yes. That's no.

[Mindy Jensen]

I don't think you're. You're making a bad decision. I think you're making a decision that you feel is right for you. I have different experiences. I have. I'm in a different position in my life, so I'm making different choices, but I am fine with that. These are choices I'm making for me. Those are choices you're making for you. And I, I don't want you to be right or wrong. Like, I don't want you to be wrong. And then the stock market continues to go down, but I don't want you to be right and the stock market goes down.

[Scott Trench]

I don't think it's right or wrong. I just. I just. I want to make sure, after inflation, I preserve what I've built.

[Mindy Jensen]

Absolutely. So we would love to hear from you. Leave a comment below or go to our Facebook group, which is facebook.comgroups/bpmoney. We would love to hear what's going on in your world. All right, that wraps up this episode. He's Scott. She was Amberly. I'm Mindy. Say goodbye.