Podcast Summary

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: 6 Predictions for 2026 That Could Reshape the Economy and Housing Market
Host: Dave Meyer
Guest: Ben Miller (CEO, Fundrise)
Date: December 19, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation between Dave Meyer and Ben Miller about what factors will shape the economy and housing market by 2026, with a particular focus on the rapid advance of AI and its subsequent economic, labor, and investment ripple effects. The dialogue combines macroeconomic analysis, forecasts for real estate investors, and concrete examples of how technological disruption is reordering the landscape—both creating risks and presenting new strategies.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Four Major Forces Shaping Real Estate and the Economy (01:29)

• Ben Miller identifies four major drivers:
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Interest Rates
  • Political Environment
  • Declining Supply (especially new construction)
• Miller notes, “There are three or four really big things happening in the world today... AI, interest rates, the political environment... supply is going away. New supply of construction is really falling off a cliff.” (01:29)

2. Interest Rates: Predictions and Debate (02:08–07:45)

• Miller argues real estate has “bottomed,” with the worst likely behind, but recognizes lingering humility after Covid and rate shocks.
• He predicts further rate cuts and declining mortgage rates, challenging the market’s prevailing uncertainty.
• The only sectors propping up economic growth are tax policy and AI/data center spend.
• Quote: “I’m skeptical on both. I think the economy is not doing great outside of AI, outside data centers... Most people aren’t like in a risk appetite mood.” (03:31)

3. AI as a Deflationary Force (08:41–10:27)

• Miller shares firsthand how Fundrise uses AI, drastically reducing needs in customer service, cybersecurity, copywriting, etc.
• He forecasts suppressed wage growth as “AI is deflationary on wages”—real wage growth could even go negative next year.
• Quote: "AI is the first technology that really makes services cheaper... it's going to make people cheaper." (10:14, 10:20)

4. Societal and Labor Market Implications (14:40–18:31)

• Both discuss the “ugly transition” ahead: job losses or changing hiring patterns, especially hitting young workers.
• Miller notes tech has long redirected gains to capital over labor, but AI may dramatically accelerate that trajectory.
• Quote: “You have this thing where people became more expensive and goods became cheaper... AI is the first technology that really makes services cheaper.” (10:10–10:14)

5. Paradigm Shift: Asset Prices and Wealth Divide (19:02–21:17)

• Miller sees the coming era as high productivity growth, low inflation, higher real interest rates. This will mostly benefit capital, not labor.
• He suggests, “high end does better than low end real estate,” forecasting a windfall for wealthy households in premium markets (San Francisco, New York, etc.).
• Quote: “High end is absolutely crazy—how much money is going to be created for [the] top 0.1% of the country.” (20:20)

6. Political and Social Responses to Inequality (22:12–25:45)

• Miller doubts universal basic income but suspects growing popularity for “pre-distribution” (unions, minimum wage, rent control) instead of after-the-fact redistribution.
• He warns of increasing government intervention and possible “extreme effects” as assets rise and wages stagnate.
• Quote: "I just don’t think you can have a functioning society where people continue to make less and less and unemployment goes up and up and all the money’s going to a very small percentage of people—that’s just the recipe for civil unrest." (24:11)

7. Practical Strategies for Real Estate Investors (31:18–34:08)

• Miller stays away from office real estate due to job losses; favors industrial, high-end multifamily, and residential assets in wealthy, less-regulated markets near economic centers.
• He highlights Fundrise’s new “Real AI” investment tool, which merges disparate real estate data sources for powerful deal analysis.
• Quote: “It turns ordinary people into advanced data scientists... Anyone can do it, but you could do it in a fraction of the time it even took me to do it.” (32:42, 35:19)

8. AI Tools: Democratizing (and Overwhelming) Analysis (34:40–37:41)

• Dave and Ben discuss pros and cons: AI empowers regular investors but may overwhelm non-analytical types with sheer data.
• Analogy: “It’s like cooking an omelet: so much of your work is just not valuable... That’s the stuff AI is so good at.” (37:16, 37:22)
• Both end on an optimistic note, seeing AI as a way to eliminate drudgery and make investing more enjoyable and accessible—if investors learn to use the tools wisely.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ben Miller: “AI really—AI data center spend is the biggest capex. It's absolutely insane.” (05:00)
• Dave Meyer: “Real wage growth is going to go negative next year. I just think that trend is going to continue.” (09:27)
• Ben Miller: “It’s not that unemployment goes through the roof. Maybe unemployment goes to 5.5% or 6%. Mostly, it suppresses hiring.” (15:44)
• Ben Miller: “Tech has been making the economy more productive, need less workers—and it's been mostly gains to capital, not gains to labor.” (17:17)
• Dave Meyer: “I haven’t thought about it that way... trying to find places where the average person can afford the average price home. [But]... affordability for the average American could get even worse.” (20:43)
• Ben Miller: “I’m a big believer in industrial and in multifamily. ...The asset classes around places that are extreme wealth will just get even crazier.” (31:22)
• Dave Meyer: “It just seems a much more robust and rich set of information... I think it's going to become more fun [to be an investor].” (35:18–36:58)
• Ben Miller: “[AI] isn’t going to get rid of the four minutes [of enjoyment]... There’s so much of your work that's just grindy, administrative, sucky work—that's the stuff AI is so good at.” (37:16, 37:22)
• Dave Meyer: “That's a great positive view of how AI might impact all of us on our work. Well, Ben, thank you so much for joining us. It’s always a pleasure.” (37:41)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Intro & Market Backdrop: 00:00–01:29
• Four Major Economic Forces: 01:29–02:00
• Interest Rate Debate & Macro Analysis: 02:08–08:26
• Deflation, AI, and Wage Impact: 08:41–10:47
• Labor Market and Societal Transition: 14:40–18:31
• Paradigm Shift and Asset Pricing: 19:02–22:12
• Inequality & Political Response: 22:12–25:45
• Investment Asset Strategies: 31:18–34:08
• AI Tools for Investors: 34:40–37:41
• Final Thoughts: 37:41–End

Summary Takeaways

• AI is the biggest single factor shaping the next era for both the economy and the housing market, likely driving deflation, lower wage growth, and expanding wealth gaps.
• Real estate is (or soon will be) at its cyclical bottom, with opportunity especially at the high end and around economic corridors—less so for typical workforce housing.
• Investors able to leverage AI-powered analysis and adapt to a data-rich environment will be the best positioned to navigate—and profit from—these changes.
• The societal and political response to these disruptions remains a wildcard, but government intervention and new policies (like rent control and predistibution) are almost guaranteed as inequality widens.

This episode is a must-listen for investors, analysts, and anyone concerned with the radical reshaping underway in real estate and the wider economy. The conversation is forthright, sometimes sobering, but ultimately empowers listeners to adapt and invest intelligently amid the whirlwind—and to use new tools to their greatest advantage.