BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: A Turning Point for the Housing Market? | Nov. Housing Market Update

Host: Dave Meyer
Date: November 14, 2025

Episode Overview

In this November 2025 Housing Market Update, host Dave Meyer (Head of Real Estate at BiggerPockets and veteran real estate investor/data analyst) breaks down the current state of the U.S. housing market. He analyzes recent trends in inventory, pricing, days on market, and the slow but gradual return of housing affordability. Dave emphasizes the importance of understanding local market dynamics for investors and shares actionable advice for navigating the ongoing market correction, capitalizing on opportunities, and hedging risk as the market shifts from a seller’s market toward a buyer’s market.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. The Current State: Correction, Not Crash

• Market is Cooling: As the weather cools, so does the housing market, entering what Dave terms a “correction”—not a crash (00:00).
• Prices Hold Steady Overall:
  • National home prices are up year-over-year, according to Redfin (+2%) and other sources (+1–1.5%).
  • However, the rate of appreciation has declined from recent years of rapid growth.
  • Listing prices are falling in many metros: October saw 20% of listings drop prices, up from 18.5% in September (02:05).
• Quote:

  “We are in what would be called a housing market correction. Now, we’re definitely not in a crash… Prices for homes, at least nominally, are up year over year.”
  — Dave Meyer (01:48)

2. Regional Performance & Inventory Dynamics

• Regional Trends:
  • Midwest and Northeast remain relatively strong (Midwest: +0.8% YoY, Northeast: flat).
  • South (-1%) and West (-2.6%) show price declines.
• Inventory Up But Not Excessive:
  • Inventory has increased for 24 consecutive months (up 15% YoY), but remains 13% below pre-pandemic levels nationally.
  • West & South see rapid growth in listings (+17% YoY), with D.C. (38%), Charlotte (36%), and Vegas (35%) leading metro-level surges.
• Local Research is Essential: Dave urges investors to use Redfin Data Center to compare local inventory against pre-pandemic baselines, not just year-over-year changes, for actionable insight (06:55).
• Quote:

  “Inventory just went up for the 24th consecutive month... That means you have 15% more [listings] to look at.”
  — Dave Meyer (04:31)

3. Correction Indicators (Not a Crash)

• Slowing Inventory Growth: While inventory is rising, the pace is decelerating—from +29% YoY in June to +15% in October (13:10).
• Seller Behavior: Fewer sellers are listing, especially as they see market conditions tilt toward buyers.
• Crash Requires Forced Sales: For a true crash, Dave says, “sellers would need to be forced to sell because of adverse economic conditions or mass foreclosures… right now, that’s not happening.” (14:45)
• Days on Market:
  • Average is up to 63 days (vs. 58 last year, 19th straight YoY increase).
  • Still close to long-term norms but much slower than the frenzy of 2020–2022.
  • Miami is leading the “slow” markets (almost 90 days), while Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Columbus, and San Francisco are brisker (as low as 30 days).
• Implications: Flippers need to budget for longer holds; buyers gain more leverage and time to negotiate.
• Quote:

  “If you’re a buyer, this again means more opportunity… you can look at multiple deals. You can think about them for a week or two before making an offer. These are things that weren’t really possible over the last couple of years.”
  — Dave Meyer (17:25)

4. Affordability Update: The “Great Stall”

• Affordability Set to Slowly Improve:
  • Combination of three factors: home prices flattening/declining in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, real wages rising, and mortgage rates dropping slightly.
  • Mortgage rates dropped from 7.2% in January 2025 to about 6.3% in November (-1%).
  • Real wages are increasing; real home prices are stagnating or declining slightly (inflation adjusted), improving affordability for four consecutive months (21:27).
• It’s Not Drastic, But It’s Positive:
  • Affordability is still at 40-year lows, but the trend is moving in the right direction.
• The “Great Stall” Concept:
  • Market improvement doesn’t require a crash or , a quick drop in mortgage rates. Instead, a slow, grinding restoration of affordability is likelier—and preferable for investors and stability.
• Quote:

  “Affordability can get better, but it’s going to happen slowly… That’s exactly what we’re seeing now. For me, that is a good thing.”
  — Dave Meyer (23:00)

5. Strategy & Mindset for Today’s Market

• Shift to Buyer’s Market:
  • Risk: Buying before further price drops; “You don’t really want to buy something for 200 grand and then a year later it’s worth 180.” (25:11)
  • Opportunity: More deals, negotiable prices, increasing ability to buy “deep.”
• Due Diligence More Critical Than Ever:
  • Analyze local inventory, price, and demand trends.
  • Adjust offer strategies (more aggressive where properties linger, less so in tight markets).
  • Focus on long-term fundamentals: rent growth prospects, value-add, and buying below market.
• The BRRRR Strategy:
  • Dave is bullish on BRRRR (“Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat”) because it lets you buy at lower prices without the need for quick selling.
• Quote:

  “How do I protect myself against the risk that comes in a buyer’s market?... The other thing is, how do I position myself for opportunity?... Because if you’re a long-term buy and hold investor, buying great assets at great prices always makes sense.”
  — Dave Meyer (25:19, 26:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Nature of Today’s Market:

  “We have been in an unhealthy housing market for three years now, maybe more. You can’t call the COVID market healthy either… We don’t get back to a healthy market without a little pain.”
  — Dave Meyer (23:44)

• On Market Optimization:

  “Take what the market’s giving you. How do I find great assets I can buy at a better price?”
  — Dave Meyer (27:00)

• On Investment Research:

  “If you want to understand what’s going on in your local market... use Redfin Data Center. Look at how inventory compares to pre-pandemic levels... That’s a recipe for prices to fall.”
  — Dave Meyer (06:50)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00: Introduction; market is cooling, opportunities are rising.
• 01:48: Explanation of market correction vs. crash—national prices up slightly.
• 04:31: Inventory trends and regional breakdowns.
• 08:46: [Ad Breaks skipped]
• 13:10: Inventory rising, but growth rate slowing—why this matters.
• 17:25: Days on market rising; tips for buyers and sellers.
• 19:45: Advice for deal makers, flipping, and BRRRR in this market.
• 21:27: Affordability trends; mortgage rates, real wages, and home prices.
• 23:00: “Great Stall” theory and its implications.
• 25:11: Strategic advice for buying in today’s transitioning market.
• 27:00: Summary and closing thoughts.

Summary Takeaways

• We are in a correction, not a crash—prices up slightly, inventory increasing, but not to dangerous levels.
• Regional variation is pronounced: Midwest and Northeast more stable, South and West softer.
• Sellers are getting realistic, but broad panic selling isn’t evident; days on market rising creates buyer leverage.
• Affordability is inching back, not surging; this slow improvement (“Great Stall”) may continue for years.
• Investors should double down on local research, patience, and strategies like BRRRR that benefit from tactical buying and the option to hold returns.
• The shifting market environment rewards patience, due diligence, and a long-term focus—view risk and opportunity together to chart your investment plan.

For full resources and more data tools, visit Redfin Data Center and BiggerPockets.