BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast: April 2025 Housing Market Update

Host: Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate at BiggerPockets
Release Date: April 18, 2025

In this comprehensive April 2025 Housing Market Update, Dave Meyer delves deep into the evolving landscape of real estate investing. The episode is meticulously structured into three main segments: an analysis of current housing market metrics, a discussion on recent news impacting the market, and strategic insights for real estate investors moving forward.

I. Current Housing Market Metrics

A. Mortgage Rates Drop

Dave opens the discussion by highlighting a positive trend in mortgage rates. "Mortgage rates are dropping. Inventory is rising. There are finally great buying opportunities for real estate," he states at [00:00]. The decline in mortgage rates, currently around 6.5%, presents improved affordability for both buyers and investors.

B. Rising Inventory Signals Shift Towards a Buyer’s Market

A significant focus of the episode is the steady increase in housing inventory. Meyer explains that active listings have risen by 12% year-over-year, totaling approximately 1.1 million listings ([05:30]). However, he cautions that inventory levels are still about 30% below the 2019 norms, indicating that while progress is being made, the market hasn't fully transitioned to equilibrium.

“Inventory is up 12% over last year. So that is some really encouraging progress.” — Dave Meyer [06:15]

Meyer emphasizes that rising inventory is a crucial indicator of shifting market dynamics, moving the landscape closer to a buyer’s market where purchasers have more negotiating power.

C. Slowing Growth in Sale Prices

While sale prices remain elevated—up between 2.5% and 3.5% year-over-year—Meyer notes a deceleration in growth rates. This slowdown aligns with the increasing inventory, suggesting a stabilization or slight softening in the market ([10:45]).

“Housing prices were going to soften based on rising inventory, and we're seeing exactly that.” — Dave Meyer [11:00]

He underscores the importance of monitoring inventory as a predictor for future price movements, anticipating that prices may continue to flatten or experience modest declines.

II. Recent News and Its Impact

A. Tariffs and Inflation Implications

Meyer addresses the introduction of new tariffs and their potential repercussions on the housing market. He acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and their direct impact on inflation rates, which in turn influence mortgage rates and overall economic stability ([14:20]).

“Tariffs are going to play a big role in inflation because economists believe that tariffs cause inflation.” — Dave Meyer [15:10]

He advises investors to keep a close eye on inflation trends over the coming months to better understand how tariffs might affect the real estate sector.

B. Strain in the Condo Market

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the emerging strain in the condo market. Meyer highlights that over 68% of condos are selling below their list price, with certain markets like Florida experiencing up to an 85% sell-through rate below listing prices ([20:05]).

“85% of condos in Florida are selling below list price. It was 68%. For the rest of the country, it is 85%.” — Dave Meyer [22:30]

He attributes this trend to high HOA fees, rising insurance premiums, and mandatory special assessments for safety upgrades, making condos less affordable and less attractive to buyers.

C. Clarifying Mortgage Delinquencies

Meyer addresses the misinformation circulating regarding mortgage delinquencies. Refuting claims that 6.1 million homeowners are delinquent, he clarifies that the actual delinquency rate stands at approximately 3.5%, lower than the 2019 average and significantly below crisis levels seen during the 2009 recession ([25:15]).

“The overall delinquency rate for mortgages in the United States is about 3.5% right now. And that might sound high, but that is actually lower than it was in 2019.” — Dave Meyer [25:25]

He distinguishes between residential and commercial multifamily delinquencies, emphasizing that the latter's rise does not reflect on the broader residential market.

III. Strategies for Real Estate Investors

A. Assessing Risk Tolerance and Capacity

Meyer advises investors to evaluate their risk tolerance and capacity in the current market environment. "The market is just riskier right now than it is during normal economic times," he notes ([29:30]). Understanding one’s ability to handle market volatility is crucial before making investment decisions.

B. Identifying and Securing Good Deals

With the market polarizing into "good" and "bad" deals, Meyer emphasizes the importance of diligent deal analysis. He encourages investors to leverage BiggerPockets’ extensive resources to refine their deal-finding strategies and ensure rigorous underwriting practices.

“Find good deals, right? That is going to be the really important thing.” — Dave Meyer [31:00]

C. Value-Add Investing Considerations

For those engaged in value-add strategies—such as renovations or flips—Meyer warns of rising costs due to tariffs on building materials. He recommends padding budgets by at least 10-20% to account for potential price hikes in materials and labor.

“Make sure you're padding how much things are you're expecting them to cost by a lot. I'd say at least 10% if you want to be conservative.” — Dave Meyer [34:50]

IV. Host’s Personal Investment Strategy

A. Lowering Risk and Maintaining Stability

Reflecting on his personal approach, Meyer shares that he has reallocated funds from the volatile stock market into more stable real estate assets. This move aims to reduce exposure to market swings while maintaining liquidity for future opportunities ([36:10]).

B. Current Real Estate Projects

He is involved in a live-in flip project and actively searching for multifamily properties in the Midwest, targeting acquisitions of 5 to 25 units by year-end. Meyer remains cautious, adhering to his investment principles and waiting for deals that meet his stringent criteria.

“I just haven't found something that checks all the boxes for me. So overall I am just sticking with my plan for 2025.” — Dave Meyer [38:45]

V. Conclusion and Recommendations

Dave Meyer concludes the episode by reaffirming his belief in the resilience of the housing market despite evident softening. He advises investors to remain data-driven, cautious yet opportunistic, and prepared to adapt to evolving market conditions. By focusing on sound investment principles and leveraging available resources, investors can navigate the current landscape effectively.

“If you're looking for a long term buy and hold, real estate is better than almost any other asset class right now.” — Dave Meyer [34:20]

Key Takeaways:

• Mortgage rates have decreased, enhancing affordability and creating potential investment opportunities.
• Rising inventory signals a gradual shift towards a buyer’s market, although levels remain below pre-pandemic norms.
• Sale price growth is slowing, indicating market stabilization but not an immediate downturn.
• Condo markets, especially in states like Florida, are experiencing significant strain, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
• Mortgage delinquency rates remain stable and lower than historical averages, dispelling alarmist narratives.
• Investors should assess their risk tolerance, focus on identifying high-quality deals, and be mindful of rising renovation costs due to tariffs.

For real estate investors seeking to navigate the April 2025 market, Meyer offers a balanced perspective: remain vigilant, leverage robust data, and maintain strategic flexibility to capitalize on emerging opportunities while mitigating risks.